toryleadership

Fantasy Shadow Cabinet - progress report

At the time of posting here are some highlights of your fantasy shadow cabinet predictions...

Only nine expect George Osborne to stay as Shadow Chancellor - 25 expect William Hague to take on Gordon Brown in a Cameron-led shadow cabinet.  Willetts, Redwood or Leigh are the choices for Shadow Chancellor of the bloggers who think Davis might be leader.  I'm not sure what is less likely - a Davis leadership or a Davis leadership giving the tax-cautious David Willetts the job of selling those £38bn of tax cuts...?

There is a lot less agreement about what should happen to David Davis.  Twelve say he should/ will stay at Home Affairs.  Ten predict a move to the defence portfolio and two see him as Shadow Leader of the House.  Five think he should be Deputy Leader without other responsibilities - a few more more give him the deputy leadership alongside another responsibility.

Liam Fox is expected to stay as Shadow Foreign Secretary.  Excellent news for all neocons!

Thirteen-and-a-half people expect Francis Maude to stay as Party Chairman.  Five-and-a-half think George Osborne will take the top seat at CCHQ.  Caroline Spelman - with three votes - is your reasonable outside bet in an otherwise very diverse field of possibilities.

Michael Gove and Oliver Letwin are favourites to be head of policy.  Gove is also nominated for international development by one blogger.  Ed Vaizey is also touted for big things and Nick Herbert is one person's choice for Shadow Chief Secretary to the Treasury.

A mix of jobs are suggested for IDS although most involve him having a lead role in developing social justice policies for the party.

Boris Johnson is a favourite for a big promotion - probably to Culture, Media and Sport but Education is also suggested.  But who will take over at the Sextator...?

John Redwood is the favourite candidate for Mr Cameron's axe.

Theresa May is hotly tipped for the health portfolio.   Other women tipped for greater things include Julie Kirkbride (to CMS) and Theresa Villiers to Shadow Europe Minister.

It's not too late to nominate your own shadow cabinet highlights... simply click here to enter this fantasy competition.

Fantasy Shadow Cabinet

Today's Times attempts to confirm what has been long expected... the return of William Hague to frontline Tory politics.  The Times predicts that Mr Hague (pictured with his 2001 shadow cabinet) may become Shadow Chancellor.  If that happens the obvious move for the current occupant of that position - George Osborne - is to the Chairmanship of the Party.  Every party leader needs a close lieutenant in such a key position and Mr Osborne, Mr Cameron's leadership campaign manager, is the obvious candidate... although Francis Maude's interest in a more open Conservative Party might keep him at CCHQ.   The other very key position where loyalty to the leader is vital is Shadow Chief Whip.  Patrick McLoughlin (the current deputy) may fill that position although Oliver Heald and Peter Luff are other candidates.

The Times does not expect Ken Clarke to return.

Who would you put - or expect to be - in the top jobs?

I'm assuming that David Cameron will win the leadership election but it's still not too late to vote in our run-off prediction competition....

If you would like to play ConservativeHome's Fantasy Shadow Cabinet you need to fill the current positions...

1. Shadow Chancellor:
2. Shadow Home Secretary:
3. Shadow Foreign Secretary:
4. Chairman:
5. Chief Whip:
6. Theresa May's role:
7. Iain Duncan Smith's role:
8. Ken Clarke's role:
9. David Davis' role:
10. Oliver Letwin's role:
11. Deputy Leader:
12. Head of Policy Development:
13. Biggest promotion awarded to (state who and to where):
14. Biggest sacking from shadow cabinet:
15. Most surprising appointment (state who and to where):

The rules are simple...

• The Editor's decision is final - so I decide which is the biggest sacking or promotion, for example...
• Only one name/position for each of the questions...
• If you put David Davis as your Shadow Home Secretary you must then put Shadow Home Secretary next to DD's role...

There will be 1 point for every correct answer... You can also get one point for correctly saying "No role" for IDS or "There won't be one" for Deputy Leader, for example...

Do not use this thread to open a discussion - In order to avoid clutter I'll delete entries that aren't fantasy shadow cabinet lists.  You have been warned!

PS Have you taken part in ConservativeHome's exclusive new survey of Tory opinion?

Run-off vote prediction

Yesterday evening I posted the names of the winners of the round one and two competitions.

TWO-PART FINAL ROUND COMPETITION

1. Please use the comments option below to predict the result of the Cameron Vs Davis run-off.  Please state your prediction in percentage terms: eg David Cameron 54.2%, David Davis 45.8%.
2. Another conservativehome.com mug will be given to the person who most accurately predicts the number of members who vote. 

Only one entry per person please.

Voting prediction winners

Sorry for the delay in announcing the winners of the two voting predictions.

I first eliminated every prediction that put the candidates in the wrong order.   I then added up the differences between the actual result and the predictions (a negative difference counting for as much as a positive difference of the same amount).

My list of winners is below:

Round one prediction

Winner: David Spencer who was out by just eight.  He predicted Ken Clarke's 38 votes exactly.

Henry Cook was the runner-up.  He was out by 10.

Kris and Edward Lennox shared joint third place.  They were both out by 12.  [Also Jamie (see comment below)].

Round two prediction

We have joint winners of round two: Wasp and Tim Roll-Pickering.

Both were out by just four.

Wasp predicted 91 (DC), 58 (DD) and 49 (LF).  Tim RP predicted  90, 55, 53.  The actual result was 90, 57, 51.

Second was Edward Lennox (the only entrant to feature in the top three twice) with 93, 55, 51; a difference of 5.

Two people were out by 6 - D&F and Terry Keen.

If Carol Vorderman is visiting I'd be grateful if she'd check my number work... otherwise congratulations to the winners and as soon as I've had some mugs made they'll be hearing from me!

Your predictions for the second round...

I've got to check the figures but Kris is claiming victory in the first predictions competition and will win a conservativehome.com mug as a result.  Please use the comments option below to record your own predictions for tomorrow's second round of voting.  Only one post per person please in this thread...

Your predictions for the first round...

Under another post Adrian Sherman has bravely declared his prediction for next Tuesday's first round of voting amongst MPs.  Please use the comments option below to nail your own predictions to the mast.  I'm having conservativehome mugs made for future winners of the caption competition (how exciting!) and the best prediction under this post will also win a mug.  Only one post per person please in this thread...