toryleadership

David Davis insists that he can still win leadership

David Davis used an interview with this morning's Today programme to insist that he could still win the Tory leadership.  The YouGov polls that had predicted a big win for Mr Cameron were internet polls, he insisted, and the Conservative Party was not an internet party.  You may be surprised by next week's result, he told Radio 4's listeners.  He said that only 60% of party members had voted and up to 40% of votes were still up for grabs.

Today programme's John Humphreys cross-examined Mr Davis on his tax plans.  Mr Davis said that tax cuts were essential for the reinvigoration of the UK economy.  Britain's growth rate had been declining because the tax burden was at its highest level for 25 years.  Mr Davis will use a speech to today's CBI conference to say that Gordon Brown's record on tax, debt control and regulation is "suicidal" for Britain plc.

David Cameron was also on the Today programme and faced repeated charges that the party conference speech which had transformed his standing in the leadership race was platitudinous.   His most convincing rebuttal came when he focused on some of the policy changes he had announced during the leadership race.  He emphasised that he would reverse the party's policy on tuition fees and abandon the patient's passport idea.  He also said that he would introduce extra help for married couples into the tax system.

On party reform he emphasised his hope to headhunt and mentor more women candidates and said that he was open to an 'A list' of candidates for the most marginal seats.

Fantasy Shadow Cabinet - progress report

At the time of posting here are some highlights of your fantasy shadow cabinet predictions...

Only nine expect George Osborne to stay as Shadow Chancellor - 25 expect William Hague to take on Gordon Brown in a Cameron-led shadow cabinet.  Willetts, Redwood or Leigh are the choices for Shadow Chancellor of the bloggers who think Davis might be leader.  I'm not sure what is less likely - a Davis leadership or a Davis leadership giving the tax-cautious David Willetts the job of selling those £38bn of tax cuts...?

There is a lot less agreement about what should happen to David Davis.  Twelve say he should/ will stay at Home Affairs.  Ten predict a move to the defence portfolio and two see him as Shadow Leader of the House.  Five think he should be Deputy Leader without other responsibilities - a few more more give him the deputy leadership alongside another responsibility.

Liam Fox is expected to stay as Shadow Foreign Secretary.  Excellent news for all neocons!

Thirteen-and-a-half people expect Francis Maude to stay as Party Chairman.  Five-and-a-half think George Osborne will take the top seat at CCHQ.  Caroline Spelman - with three votes - is your reasonable outside bet in an otherwise very diverse field of possibilities.

Michael Gove and Oliver Letwin are favourites to be head of policy.  Gove is also nominated for international development by one blogger.  Ed Vaizey is also touted for big things and Nick Herbert is one person's choice for Shadow Chief Secretary to the Treasury.

A mix of jobs are suggested for IDS although most involve him having a lead role in developing social justice policies for the party.

Boris Johnson is a favourite for a big promotion - probably to Culture, Media and Sport but Education is also suggested.  But who will take over at the Sextator...?

John Redwood is the favourite candidate for Mr Cameron's axe.

Theresa May is hotly tipped for the health portfolio.   Other women tipped for greater things include Julie Kirkbride (to CMS) and Theresa Villiers to Shadow Europe Minister.

It's not too late to nominate your own shadow cabinet highlights... simply click here to enter this fantasy competition.

Sunday Telegraph endorses David Cameron

The Sunday Telegraph believes that David Cameron has "established beyond reasonable doubt his credentials as the Conservative Party's best hope at the next election".  Its endorsement of the Shadow Education Secretary ends with a call for George Osborne, Liam Fox and David Davis to be key members of a Cameron leadership:

"In the intellectual and persuasive battle ahead, there are three colleagues whom he must keep close to him. One is George Osborne, who has proved himself a bold and innovative Shadow Chancellor, and should remain in that post. Liam Fox - whose performance in the contest made the Prime Minister sit up and think - deserves a senior berth in the new team.

Above all, Mr Davis should be offered - and has said he would accept - the Deputy Leadership of the party, an anchor and a reassurance to those in the party who may find Mr Cameron's plans occasionally alarming but also as a politician of experience, grit and judgment. This exciting contest has shown that the opportunity for the Conservatives to change the political landscape is the most promising it has been since 1979. Now it is time to deliver."

Pick your own Shadow Cabinet by clicking here.

Fantasy Shadow Cabinet

Today's Times attempts to confirm what has been long expected... the return of William Hague to frontline Tory politics.  The Times predicts that Mr Hague (pictured with his 2001 shadow cabinet) may become Shadow Chancellor.  If that happens the obvious move for the current occupant of that position - George Osborne - is to the Chairmanship of the Party.  Every party leader needs a close lieutenant in such a key position and Mr Osborne, Mr Cameron's leadership campaign manager, is the obvious candidate... although Francis Maude's interest in a more open Conservative Party might keep him at CCHQ.   The other very key position where loyalty to the leader is vital is Shadow Chief Whip.  Patrick McLoughlin (the current deputy) may fill that position although Oliver Heald and Peter Luff are other candidates.

The Times does not expect Ken Clarke to return.

Who would you put - or expect to be - in the top jobs?

I'm assuming that David Cameron will win the leadership election but it's still not too late to vote in our run-off prediction competition....

If you would like to play ConservativeHome's Fantasy Shadow Cabinet you need to fill the current positions...

1. Shadow Chancellor:
2. Shadow Home Secretary:
3. Shadow Foreign Secretary:
4. Chairman:
5. Chief Whip:
6. Theresa May's role:
7. Iain Duncan Smith's role:
8. Ken Clarke's role:
9. David Davis' role:
10. Oliver Letwin's role:
11. Deputy Leader:
12. Head of Policy Development:
13. Biggest promotion awarded to (state who and to where):
14. Biggest sacking from shadow cabinet:
15. Most surprising appointment (state who and to where):

The rules are simple...

• The Editor's decision is final - so I decide which is the biggest sacking or promotion, for example...
• Only one name/position for each of the questions...
• If you put David Davis as your Shadow Home Secretary you must then put Shadow Home Secretary next to DD's role...

There will be 1 point for every correct answer... You can also get one point for correctly saying "No role" for IDS or "There won't be one" for Deputy Leader, for example...

Do not use this thread to open a discussion - In order to avoid clutter I'll delete entries that aren't fantasy shadow cabinet lists.  You have been warned!

PS Have you taken part in ConservativeHome's exclusive new survey of Tory opinion?

Lord Archer set to give new leader a first headache

Today's Times reports that Lord Archer of Weston-super-Mare has rejoined the Conservative Party through local associations in Vauxhall and South Cambridgeshire.  The best-selling storyteller and former Deputy Tory Chairman was given a five year ban from Conservative Party membership by William Hague in February 2000.  That ban was made after he was sent to prison for perjury.

Lord Archer may soon reapply to sit with other Tories in the House of Lords.  Michael Howard washed his hands of the matter, telling The Times: "That will be a decision for my successor. I won’t do anything to embarrass my successor.”  Messrs Davis and Cameron were unwilling to comment.

Deciding whether or not to forgive Jeffrey Archer will just be one of the headaches that will greet the incoming Tory leader.  Restoring Tory finances will be of migraine proportions.  Streams of income have dried up during the leadership interregnum.

If, as is now almost certain, David Cameron becomes Tory leader his EPP commitment will cause some discomfort.  The more Europhile Conservative Members of the European Parliament are very unhappy about quitting the EPP.  At the Frimley Hustings on Wednesday Mr Cameron appeared to kick his EPP commitment into the long grass with the announcement that his Shadow Foreign Secretary will determine the timing of the exit.

Davis and Cameron promise to be friends of Israel

Writing for this week's Spectator the anti-war Peter Oborne says that David Cameron's pro-Iraq-war policy makes him a lot like George W Bush (although DC recently declined to say that he would have voted for the re-election of America's 43rd President).  Mr Oborne cites the support of many of DC's closest colleagues - George Osborne, Michael Gove and Ed Vaizey - for the recently launched Henry Jackson Society and its neoconservative beliefs.  Support for Israel is a key belief of many neocons and David Cameron has firmly established himself as a Conservative Friend of Israel.

Answering questions posed by Conservative Friends of Israel both Mr Cameron and Mr Davis have described Israel as a force for good, a standard bearer of democracy in the Middle East and on the frontline on the war against terrorism.  The rest of this post is a summary of a press release that CFI distributed yesterday...

Mr Davis and Mr Cameron answered a number of questions on a wide range of subjects including, support for Israel, the peace process, Islamic fundamentalism and the rise of anti-Semitism.

Asked why Conservatives should support Israel, David Cameron stated “that Conservatives recognize Israel’s unique position as a lone democracy in a region that currently boasts no others. …Israel is in the frontline against terror”.  Mr Cameron stressed that: “Conservatives also recognise Israel’s unique position as a lone democracy in a region that currently boasts no others. I am a strong admirer of what Israelis have achieved in the fields of science, the arts, business and philanthropy, and of the immeasurable contribution of Jewish culture to our own society”.

David Davis observed that: “Israel as a force for good in the wider world….Conservatives share many of the same values and outlook as Israel. Quite naturally therefore we should work closely together”.  On a peaceful solution to the Middle East conflict, Mr Davis stated that he preferred a two state solution.  Mr Cameron added: “a long term resolution of the conflict, depended on the creation of a fully democratic Palestinian state: “two states, two democracies living side by side”.

On Palestinian corruption, Mr Cameron has urged the Palestinian Leadership “to live up to its responsibility to end the corruption, violence, prejudice and terrorism which has blighted their people’s prospects”.

On terrorist attacks against Israel following the Israeli Disengagement from Gaza, Mr Davis stated “We also need to bring pressure to bear, together with the international community, on Palestine that with a new state goes responsibility to maintain order and take whatever measures are necessary to stop unacceptable attacks on the neighbouring Israeli state”.

Download dc_answers_to_cfi_questions.pdf
Download dd_answers_to_cfi_questions.pdf

Sun and Telegraph join the Cameron bandwagon

Civil warring at The Telegraph prevented the editorial team endorsing David Cameron until today.  The newspaper hid its hesitancy behind a desire to see certain policy questions answered.  It is far from clear that those questions have been answered but the newspaper has finally decided that the clear frontrunning candidate "can lead a revived Tory party":

"In two months, David Cameron has risen almost from nowhere to assume an apparently unassailable lead in the Tory leadership race. Yet in this short time he has been tested formidably.  In maintaining what might be called an honest discretion about his past use of drugs, in resisting the often heavy pressure to come out with details of the next election manifesto four years before it is due, and simply in keeping up his enthusiasm over a gruelling campaign, Mr Cameron has shown he has a tenacity which belies his fresh face."

The newspaper recommends that Mr Cameron forms a shadow cabinet of all the talents - Liam Fox, Malcolm Rifkind, David Willetts, William Hague and IDS.  It also notes that it will be "essential" to find a place for David Davis in his team:

"He deserved his early lead, and did not entirely deserve the drubbing he received from the media at Blackpool. He, too, is responsible for the resurgence of Tory fortunes, not least by advocating a clear and coherent set of policy principles based on freedom and enterprise.  He would make an excellent senior member of Mr Cameron's team, capable (in his own words) of reaching parts of the country the other cannot, and useful in keeping the young leader on the right side of the centre ground."

The Sun also opts for Mr Cameron this morning.  It does so after echoing The Telegraph's concern about his policy vagueness.  The Sun focuses on tax policy - "Nobody is entirely sure where he stands on issues like taxation".  The Telegraph agrees - "Many are concerned, for example, by his formulation on the economy, that he will "share the proceeds of growth between public spending and tax cuts".  Mr Cameron should realise that unless a major transfer of resources is made from the unproductive public sector to the productive private sector, by large-scale tax reductions, there will be no "growth" to "share" at all."

But is the belief that Mr Cameron is "articulate, lucid and self-confident" that secures The Sun's backing for Mr Cameron:

"He has handled questions about his experience with drugs — and his privileged Eton schooling — with maturity.  He looks good on TV and he has the rare gift as a Tory of making voters feel good about life.  These may seem superficial qualities. But they are essential in an age when the medium is the message.  They have already persuaded many voters he is a match for Tony Blair - and eventually, Gordon Brown.  Cameron is bright. He will learn fast.  The choice now is between a veteran who, despite genuine qualities, has never really made the premier league — and a raw beginner with a sprinkle of stardust.  After eight years in power, Labour is tired and in many ways discredited.  Britain desperately needs a real Opposition leader to take them on.  We hope David Cameron is the man to do it."

That completes a clean sweep of newspaper endorsements for Mr Cameron.  But newspapers have not played a leading role in this contest - they have tended to follow the lead of opinion polls and the political editors of BBCtv and ITN.  This will be one of the conclusions of this site's definitive review of this leadership contest that will be published on 5th December.  The review is based on interviews with insiders from every major campaign team.  Like the candidates' answers to the ConservativeHome.com questionnaire, stages of the review will be posted on the hour, throughout that day.  If you would like a full copy at the start of that day you should join ConservativeHome's free emailing list.

HAVE YOU VOTED IN CONSERVATIVEHOME'S OWN SURVEY OF TORY OPINION?

Sky TV Debate

I've just watched Sky News' leadership debate.  It came alive during an encounter on 24 hour drinking but was otherwise a fairly tame affair.  The candidates are now incredibly familar with their messages and both were able to repeat their familar campaign themes.  David Davis emphasised his opposition to everything Tony Blair stood for, his belief in lower taxation and his determination to champion the victims of state failure.  David Cameron spotlighted the extent of his parliamentary support and repeated his themes of change and hope.

Sky had arranged for a number of experts to put pointed questions to the candidates but none were given enough time to really put the contenders on the spot.  An expert from the Institute for Fiscal Studies, Robert Chote, pressed David Cameron, for example, on his 'sharing the proceeds of growth' soundbite.  Mr Chote outlined a precise economic scenario and asked Mr Cameron to say how much of the economy's proceeds would go to tax cuts and how much to public spending.  Mr Cameron declined to answer - falling back on restating his soundbite.  He chose, instead, to go on the attack - accusing David Davis of failing to heed the message of the last election defeats.  Mr Davis' tax promise amounted to double ham and eggs when the electorate had twice rejected a single portion of ham and eggs.  Mr Davis said that Tories had to make the case for their deepest beliefs - including the case for economy-boosting tax relief.  Speaking about a Sky/YouGov opinion poll that put both contenders behind Gordon Brown, Mr Davis said that what mattered was what the opinion polls said in four years - not now.

Seventeen undecided Tory voters were in the studio to watch the debate.  Five became DD supporters.  Six declared that they would back DC.   

This was the last TV debate and one of Sky's experts, James Brown - formerly of Loaded magazine - noted that the reputation of the whole party had been helped by the civilised nature of the exchanges.  Adam Boulton, Sky's Political Editor, certainly agrees.  This is what he wrote for last Sunday's Telegraph:

"This is the first time any party has forced its candidates to run the gauntlet of hustings in front of activists live on television at the annual party conference. As a follow-up, no aspirant prime ministers in Britain have ever then gone on to confront each other in a series of live television debates, in the way of the two Davids.

Whoever wins, Cameron and Davis have already written themselves into the political history books. By the end of this campaign, the two men will have taken part in three full scale television debates, on BBC1, ITV1 (today at lunchtime), and Sky News (next Thursday), as well as sitting side by side on Radio 4's Woman's Hour and numerous breakfast TV sofas. The campaign will be remembered for these joint appearances. Traditional one-on-one interviews have had less impact, even those conducted by Jeremy Paxman.

The debates have been fresh: the first proper televised events in this country in which the contestants have complied with the requirements of the broadcasting professionals over such vital questions as format and timing. In 1994, the three Labour leadership candidates, Margaret Beckett, John Prescott and Tony Blair did allow television cameras into some of their joint appearances at party meetings. But Labour's sensitivity to media presentation was already well developed and the media were kept at arm's length. Not surprisingly, these dreary events did not attract the public's interest."

See The Telegraph's report on the Sky debate.

Cameron more popular than Blair

A YouGov survey for Sky News suggests that David Cameron is a more popular choice for PM than Tony Blair.  Mr Cameron still trails the next Tory leader's likely opponent at the next election, Gordon Brown, however:

"Four out of 10 (41%) wanted the Shadow Education Secretary to replace the current Premier, while 38% would rather Mr Blair stayed in charge and 20% could not choose between them.  When compared with Mr Brown, the Chancellor led Mr Cameron by 43% to 38% and Shadow Home Secretary Mr Davis by 46% to 32%."

The poll also revealed that Mr Cameron enjoys more support from both Tory voters and all voters in his race with David Davis.

The poll was taken for today's Sky News Leadership debate (airing first at 3pm and again at 9pm).  ConservativeHome will be blogging on this final TV debate of the contest soon after it has been broadcast.

HAVE YOU VOTED IN CONSERVATIVEHOME'S OWN SURVEY OF TORY OPINION?

Hustings Report (9): London

Sam Coates, author of the Votes at 18 blogspot, submits the ninth Hustings Report (and, I think, the most comprehensive) - for last night's gathering in Westminster (Methodist) Central Hall.  Sam will be a member of the panel of undecided Tory voters on this afternoon's Sky News Leadership Debate (3pm, repeated 9pm).  If he looks at bit tired on that programme it will be because he submitted his report at 3.17am this morning.  I call that dedication!

The final two hustings - in Exeter and Newport - will be reported on next week.

Firstly, an apology to the two leadership campaigns… us ConHome hustings reporters must be very annoying to them!  I won’t lose sleep though - the scripts are still unchanged.

The London hustings was always going to be the most influential one, and I did feel both candidates were slightly nervous. There were a lot of supporters with stickers and flyers – the Davis campaign had a fair showing but couldn’t match that of the youthful Cameron campaign. By the main stairwell it was at least equalled by volunteer leafletters for this very website, “run by the members for the members”. The setting was the Great Hall in Methodist Central Hall; it was roughly 90% full out of a maximum capacity of 2,160. A magnificent but echoey building, the subsequent sound problems showed some of the Tory brigade to be quite rowdy with their “can’t hear you” cries. Oddly, the cries came back briefly around the time that the Chairman of the proceedings (London regional Chairman, Matthew Carrington) was asking for money to cover costs! I wasn’t the only one to note the relatively high proportion of young people in the audience.