toryleadership

Mixed messages from the Mail on Sunday

The MoS is the only Tory newspaper not to have endorsed David Cameron but they come close to doing so today in a leading article (not online) entitled "At last, a Tory who is capable of turning the tide".

The leader states:

"After eight years of circling hopelessly in the wilderness, the Conservative Party seems at last to have found a direction which may take it back to power... We do not really know very much about Mr Cameron except that he is new.  Many of his ideas seem vaguely Leftish... But to many his detailed plans matter a great deal less than the fact that he is not Mr Blair, and his party is not New Labour."

The MoS believes that we could be close to one of those rare turning points in British politics "when the government is weary, and when a fresh generation is growing ready to take over."  It pinpoints 1964's election of Harold Wilson - replacing "the dreary staleness of the Tory cabinet".  The 1979 Thatcher victory.  And, of course, the dawn of New Labour in 1997.

Turn over the  page, however, and MoS columnist Peter Hitchens sees David Cameron as more of a continuity man - rather than a turning point.

Hitchens, author of The Abolition of Britain, argues that from 1970 to 1974 and from 1979 to 1997 the Tory governments only made "a few misleading noises" about reversing the socially revolutionary Labour policies of the 1960s.  "Marriage was not defended," he says, "grammar schools were not reopened, the anti-family welfare state was not slowed and crime was not fought.  The EU's tentacles were allowed to wriggle into every corner of our lives".

Hitchens has called Tony Blair Princess Tony ever since the PM's allegedly cloying tribute to the late Princess Diana.  Princess Tory is his new name for David Cameron.  Cameron and the Tory elite "would rather be loved by The Guardian than by the oppressed, ignored people who foolishly trust them":

"So Mr Cameron, slashing away any last signs of conservatism, will turn his party into a middle-class, Southern versiuon of New Labour... The task of creating a real Opposition is put off once again, perhaps until it is too late."

Yorkshire Post - David Davis' regional daily - recommends Cameron

The excellent Yorkshire Post newspaper has provided extensive and fair coverage of the leadership election.  It recently gave both contenders space on the comment pages to make their pitches and last week gave Freddie Forsyth the opportunity to put the case for DD and against DC.

The Post has supported the Conservative Party in the past but has struggled to find much enthusiasm in recent years.  It sat on the fence in 2001 and merely urged its readers to vote for a smaller Labour majority at this year's General Election.

Although David Davis represents a Yorkshire seat the newspaper has rejected the local Heineken candidate and plumped for Mr Cameron in today's leader column:

"Mr Davis has fought a pugnacious campaign. He has carefully delineated policies which are dear to his heart and, indeed, dear to many of the Tory members on whose decision his future rests. Tough on crime, naturally Eurosceptic and with an instinctive belief in the moral virtues of low taxes, the Haltemprice and Howden MP has strained every sinew in his attempt to show how his policy agenda can take his party forward.  But he has failed. All the soundings suggest that, even in his native Yorkshire, where he should expect to be much further ahead than he is, his message has not hit home.  Although it might be thought that the former front-runner has far more in common with grassroots Conservatism than does Mr Cameron, it seems that this particular electorate has other ideas.

There can be no clearer indication that those who form the backbone of the party are now ready to embrace the outside world. Three times now the Conservatives have picked leaders whose strength was their appeal to the party's core vote and three times those leaders have failed.  If the Tories are to broaden their appeal sufficiently to stand a chance of gaining power, the man best equipped for that task is Mr Cameron. Ever since he stole a march on Mr Davis with a party-conference speech that was both eloquent and thoughtful, the Shadow Education Secretary has consistently stayed ahead of his rival.  He has been helped, of course, by a natural charisma, which is unfortunately necessary for a successful party leader in this mass-media age and which Mr Davis does not possess.

But there is more to Mr Cameron than image. He believes that the Conservatives can become a truly national party again not by abandoning their core beliefs, but by making them relevant to the modern world.  In the task of cajoling non-Conservatives to embrace the party, rather than merely exciting existing party members, Mr Cameron appears to have the intellectual and persuasive skills that will be necessary.  This is not to say that this inexperienced politician does not have much to prove, notably in the detailed formulation of policy. Choosing Mr Cameron as leader is not without risks. But risk is what the Conservative Party has to embrace if it is to prove its relevance to a 21st-century electorate."

Sunday Telegraph endorses David Cameron

The Sunday Telegraph believes that David Cameron has "established beyond reasonable doubt his credentials as the Conservative Party's best hope at the next election".  Its endorsement of the Shadow Education Secretary ends with a call for George Osborne, Liam Fox and David Davis to be key members of a Cameron leadership:

"In the intellectual and persuasive battle ahead, there are three colleagues whom he must keep close to him. One is George Osborne, who has proved himself a bold and innovative Shadow Chancellor, and should remain in that post. Liam Fox - whose performance in the contest made the Prime Minister sit up and think - deserves a senior berth in the new team.

Above all, Mr Davis should be offered - and has said he would accept - the Deputy Leadership of the party, an anchor and a reassurance to those in the party who may find Mr Cameron's plans occasionally alarming but also as a politician of experience, grit and judgment. This exciting contest has shown that the opportunity for the Conservatives to change the political landscape is the most promising it has been since 1979. Now it is time to deliver."

Pick your own Shadow Cabinet by clicking here.

Sun and Telegraph join the Cameron bandwagon

Civil warring at The Telegraph prevented the editorial team endorsing David Cameron until today.  The newspaper hid its hesitancy behind a desire to see certain policy questions answered.  It is far from clear that those questions have been answered but the newspaper has finally decided that the clear frontrunning candidate "can lead a revived Tory party":

"In two months, David Cameron has risen almost from nowhere to assume an apparently unassailable lead in the Tory leadership race. Yet in this short time he has been tested formidably.  In maintaining what might be called an honest discretion about his past use of drugs, in resisting the often heavy pressure to come out with details of the next election manifesto four years before it is due, and simply in keeping up his enthusiasm over a gruelling campaign, Mr Cameron has shown he has a tenacity which belies his fresh face."

The newspaper recommends that Mr Cameron forms a shadow cabinet of all the talents - Liam Fox, Malcolm Rifkind, David Willetts, William Hague and IDS.  It also notes that it will be "essential" to find a place for David Davis in his team:

"He deserved his early lead, and did not entirely deserve the drubbing he received from the media at Blackpool. He, too, is responsible for the resurgence of Tory fortunes, not least by advocating a clear and coherent set of policy principles based on freedom and enterprise.  He would make an excellent senior member of Mr Cameron's team, capable (in his own words) of reaching parts of the country the other cannot, and useful in keeping the young leader on the right side of the centre ground."

The Sun also opts for Mr Cameron this morning.  It does so after echoing The Telegraph's concern about his policy vagueness.  The Sun focuses on tax policy - "Nobody is entirely sure where he stands on issues like taxation".  The Telegraph agrees - "Many are concerned, for example, by his formulation on the economy, that he will "share the proceeds of growth between public spending and tax cuts".  Mr Cameron should realise that unless a major transfer of resources is made from the unproductive public sector to the productive private sector, by large-scale tax reductions, there will be no "growth" to "share" at all."

But is the belief that Mr Cameron is "articulate, lucid and self-confident" that secures The Sun's backing for Mr Cameron:

"He has handled questions about his experience with drugs — and his privileged Eton schooling — with maturity.  He looks good on TV and he has the rare gift as a Tory of making voters feel good about life.  These may seem superficial qualities. But they are essential in an age when the medium is the message.  They have already persuaded many voters he is a match for Tony Blair - and eventually, Gordon Brown.  Cameron is bright. He will learn fast.  The choice now is between a veteran who, despite genuine qualities, has never really made the premier league — and a raw beginner with a sprinkle of stardust.  After eight years in power, Labour is tired and in many ways discredited.  Britain desperately needs a real Opposition leader to take them on.  We hope David Cameron is the man to do it."

That completes a clean sweep of newspaper endorsements for Mr Cameron.  But newspapers have not played a leading role in this contest - they have tended to follow the lead of opinion polls and the political editors of BBCtv and ITN.  This will be one of the conclusions of this site's definitive review of this leadership contest that will be published on 5th December.  The review is based on interviews with insiders from every major campaign team.  Like the candidates' answers to the ConservativeHome.com questionnaire, stages of the review will be posted on the hour, throughout that day.  If you would like a full copy at the start of that day you should join ConservativeHome's free emailing list.

HAVE YOU VOTED IN CONSERVATIVEHOME'S OWN SURVEY OF TORY OPINION?

"Hopeful" Mail endorses X-factor Cameron "with some trepidation"

With these words the Daily Mail ends its Saturday editorial:

"The Mail believes constituency members should vote for David Cameron."

The newspaper pays tribute to David Davis.  It notes that his willingness to "articulate core Tory values" has been "refreshing" although his tax cuts strategy is described as "ill thought-out".  The Mail also congratulates the two contenders on the way that the contest has been characterised by "dignity, good humour, an absence of spin and a respect for the public's intelligence".

It believes that the Tory party's prospects are now "exciting".  The party has an opportunity to elect David Cameron - who has "the X-factor or charisma to reach voters in a way no Tory leader has done in years" - at the same time that we can all "smell the beginning of the end" of Blairism.  The Mail hopes that Mr Cameron will appoint the likes of Liam Fox, William Hague and Malcolm Rifkind to the Tory frontbench, and that this will address the danger of Mr Cameron's relative inexperience.

The leader notes its disagreement with Mr Cameron on ecstasy but recommends a man who is backed by 54% of 154 Tory Association Chairman surveyed by today's Mail (24% backed DD).  "The Tories have succumbed to despair for too long... this is a time to choose hope," the newspaper concludes.  How very Clintonesque!

The Mail is said to be read by a quarter of Tory members and its leader will be read widely amongst the target electorate.  With The Times having already declared for David Cameron (on Wednesday), The Telegraph and The Sun are the two main Tory-read papers left to declare.  Given The Sun's past criticism of Mr Davis it seems likely that it will declare for Mr Cameron, too.  The Telegraph (read by half of Tory members) is the most prized endorsement.  Last week it encouraged its members not to vote yet and ask tougher questions of the two contenders.  ConservativeHome understands that there may be a difference of opinion between most of the newspaper's editorial staff and the newspaper's management.   The editorial staff are keen to endorse Mr Cameron soon; the management and owners have apparently been more cautious.

Davis leads Cameron by 50% to 37% amongst Tory voters

A new poll for today's Times gives David Davis a surprising lead amongst Conservative Party voters.  Last month David Cameron led David Davis by 45% to 15%.  This month the Populus survey gives David Davis a 50% over 37% advantage.  The poll was taken after Mr Davis' pledges on tax and Europe and his well-received Question Time performance.  The swing to Mr Davis may also reflect Mr Cameron's muddled ecstasy policy.

The poll should be treated cautiously, however.  Populus surveyed Tory voters - not the members who wil actually elect the next Tory leader.  Populus' General Election tracker poll for The Times/ITN also predicted a very big win for Tony Blair just a couple of days before May 5th's contest.  Populus' reputation has never fully recovered since.

The survey also contains some good news for Mr Cameron.  All voters favour Mr Cameron over Mr Davis by 37% to 30% and most Tory voters think Mr Cameron is more likely to win a General Election.

It is no surprise that a leader in The Times endorses Mr Cameron.  The newspaper compares Mr Davis to IDS and suggests that he is the opponent Gordon Brown would prefer to face.  Mr Cameron, in contrast, is identified as the man most likely to "start a conversation with those sections of the electorate - notably the professional classes or 'ABs' - that have become detached from the Conservatives".  The newspaper is not blind to the risks associated with voting for Mr Cameron: "To choose an inexperienced figure with a somewhat ambiguous agenda is a gamble twice over."  It nonetheless urges Tories "to roll the dice".

FT4DC

A few days after The Economist (also owned by Pearson) endorsed David Cameron, the FT has done the same.

A leader in today's newspaper concludes that Liam Fox's 'broken society' message is too gloomy and that he is not a candidate 'in tune with modern Britain'.  David Davis is ruled out for being "unfocused" on policy and for failing to inspire his own party at Blackpool.  Ken Clarke would "uncontrovertibly [be] able to give the government a tough time and to challenge Gordon Brown's claims of economic genius" but he his rejected by the FT because he does not recognise the need for a "modernisation agenda".

That leaves David Cameron:

"David Cameron's conference speech showed him in touch with contemporary concerns in a way that none of the other candidates managed. His public persona is attractive and approachable, and his message is one of optimism. He has already attracted the attention of voters alienated by political posturing and yah-boo politics.  Yet he, too, has a weakness: a shortage of experience. He has held no significant front-bench positions, nor led in a parliamentary debate... The Tories need a leader who grasps the way that Britain has changed and can formulate ideas about how a modern Conservative party should respond. He lacks the experience that would make him a shoo-in for the post. But he has shown himself to be the only candidate who understands the challenge of repositioning the Conservative party for the 21st century."

"Hope over experience": The Economist endorses David Cameron

"If only the Conservatives could call on the organisational skill of a machine politician and former whip like Mr Davis, the blokeish appeal and destructive oratory of Mr Clarke and the charm and fresh allure of Mr Cameron.

But they cannot and so the party must choose. Mr Fox lacks stature. Mr Davis is short of the charm he needs to shed the party's charge of nastiness. Mr Clarke, virtually absent from politics for the past eight years, lacks a claim to lead—and renewal is hardly the word for a politician who has yet to show that his policies and persona have moved beyond the 1990s.

Which is why the party should elect Mr Cameron. True, at 39 his moment has come too early. Although he has years of experience as a political adviser, he has much to learn about politics in the front line. But he has intelligence, charisma and (it seems) integrity. And he alone has shown that he has come to terms with New Labour—that he knows which parts of it voters like and which to jettison. That makes him best placed to give the Tories hope and Britain an opposition."

With those words The Economist has endorsed David Cameron.  The magazine accepts that David Cameron's inexperience makes him a risky choice.  Furthermore, it notes that he has passed no parliamentary or party test that can be compared to those met by Tony Blair before he became Labour leader.  But, The Economist argues, the Tories do not have to make the policy changes that New Labour needed to.  The Tory problem is not policy - it is basic likeability.  And... David Cameron is likeable, it thinks: "Tory activists spotted this much more quickly than did the MPs, who worry about his inexperience and are prone to understandable envy about the preferment that has assisted his rise".