toryleadership

Fox endorses Cameron

Hot on the heels of William Hague's endorsement of David Cameron comes the backing of Dr Fox (see The Sunday Times).

The Shadow Foreign Secretary (the first round choice of your Editor) is reported as saying that his decision was a “close call” but he wanted to see the leadership passed to the “next generation”.

Many of Dr Fox's leading supporters - John Hayes, Oliver Heald, Eleanor Laing, Stephen O'Brien and Gary Streeter - had already endorsed Mr Cameron.  Dr Fox said:

“I set out a very clear agenda in my own leadership campaign that what I wanted to see was a Conservative party that was very robust on the economy and committed to wealth creation, that was willing to stand up strongly for Britain abroad, but wanted to be seen as more compassionate at home.  I have decided to back David Cameron because I think the best approach for us to win is one of greater collective decision-making and leadership which accepts that it is important to return to a concept of first among equals.”

This talk of "collective leadership" will be very important.  If IDS, Dr Fox, William Hague and Mr Davis play prominent roles in a Cameron team leadership there is likely to be strong positions in the war on terror and against drugs.

Dr Fox's reasons for backing Mr Cameron will be reassuring to Michael Gove MP.  Early last week, Mr Gove, an early supporter of Mr Cameron, had identified five similarities between the Fox and Cameron campaigns:

1. Foreign Policy should be Idealist not Realist.
2. Let’s not wobble on the war.
3. We need a more meritocratic Britain. But that still isn’t enough to heal our broken society.
4. Don’t be afraid of the market.
5. Modernising doesn’t mean going soft – it means recognising how the world has changed.

The Sunday Times believes that Mr Cameron now enjoys the public support of 109 Tory MPs.

Writing for The Sunday Telegraph Mr Cameron promises to distance himself from the belligerence, vanity and lack of follow-through inherent in Blairism:

"The last thing Britain - or the Conservative Party - needs is more Blairism. I believe we need a new style of politics: thoughtful, measured and moderate. I believe we need serious long-term policy thinking to tackle the challenges we face. And I believe that if you give people more freedom and opportunity, they and society will grow stronger. That's the kind of leadership I offer, and I'm confident it will return our Party to government."

Fox attempts to shake off right-wing label

If the final run-off looks likely to be between Davids Cameron and Davis, tomorrow's race is all about Clarke versus Fox.  There is unlikely to be much direct competition; likely Clarke supporters are unlikely Fox supporters and vice versa but they are in a close battle to survive tomorrow's first round.  If one survives tomorrow with an impressive number of supporters and either of the Davids underperform they have a (small) hope that their momentum might see them overtake the faltering candidate.

Clarke is essentially fighting for MPs who would otherwise vote for David Cameron and Dr Fox is trying to secure the support of Eurosceptic, social conservatives who might be tempted to abandon David Davis.  In the number of public declarations Ken Clarke has a narrow 24 to 22 advantage.  Dr Fox has not received as many Cornerstone votes as first expected but undecided MPs might be waiting to see how the candidates fare before today's hustings, in front of the whole parliamentary party.

Most of the work is now behind-the-scenes with candidates meeting MPs one-to-one.  Until Thursday the news media plays a secondary role.  Eyeballing is the name of the game for the time-being.  Nonetheless, yesterday I noted Ken Clarke's eleventh hour public pitch for support on BBC1's Politics Show. Liam Fox was on last night's Westminster Hour making, perhaps, his last public appeal for support.

Dr Fox attempted to counter Andrew Rawnsley's suggestion that he was the candidate of 'the right'.  He said that such terms weren't very enlightening anymore.  He suggested that his campaigning against domestic violence, for better care of the mentally ill and for human rights to be at the heart of Tory foreign policy were hardly knee-jerk right-wingery.  There should be no 'no-go areas' for Tories.  Oliver Heald, a Clarke supporter in 2001, and Gary Streeter, who Dr Fox described as on the 'left' of the party (those terms must still have some currency!), are both supporting Dr Fox's leadership bid and he deployed them as an attempted proof of his broad appeal.   Dr Fox warned that it was vital that the party remained a broad church.  If we didn't maintain coalitions inside the party we would have to start building them with outside parties, he said.   

Fox closes in on Clarke

Midnight has arrived and four Cornerstone MPs have just declared for Liam Fox: Mark Francois, Robert Goodwill, Owen Paterson and Angela Watkinson (pictured). 

Dr Fox is now breathing down Ken Clarke's neck (what a thought!) and many Westminster insiders now expect that it will be Mr Clarke who has to drop out of the race after the first round of voting.  Another ten Cornerstone MPs have yet to declare and most are expected to endorse Dr Fox.  Expect more declarations in Sunday's papers to create some momentum for Dr Fox ahead of Tuesday's vote.

New supporters for Cameron and Fox

David Cameron has been installed as the bookies' new favourite.  A sensational week for the Shadow Education Secretary ends with him establishing himself as the clear second-placed rival to David Davis in conservativehome.com's 'Who's backing who?'.  Mr Cameron gets there with endorsements from Alan Duncan, James Gray, Jeremy Hunt, Mark Lancaster and Grant Shapps.  That, by the way, is the same Alan Duncan who (only a month ago) had said that David Cameron was "impudent" to think of standing and should step aside for the "big boys".

Dr Fox has also moved forward.  He now has 14 declared supporters after  Stephen Crabb, Stephen Hammond, Mark Harper and Brooks Newmark had declared for him.  Those four extra endorsements will be a little consolation for Dr Fox after William Hague used a Today programme interview to (belatedly) deny rumours that he would be backing him.  Mr Hague - who wowed the Conference yesterday - said that he has not yet decided who to support.

Dr Fox reaches out to right in confident performance

The BBC’s betting expert has noted that a “huge” inflow of money has catapulted David Cameron from 8-1 to 10-3 (equal second favourite) since his speech of yesterday.  Liam Fox (14-1) had to work hard to neutralise ‘the Cameron surge’ and win that essential second-placed spot.  His speech began with a joke about how he played tennis with David Cameron and often lost.  He didn’t intend to make losing against Mr Cameron a habit, he laughed!

Dr Fox occasionally charmed the audience with his wide smile but this was a serious speech overall – designed to reassure those who MPs who wonder if he is substantial enough to be a potential Prime Minister.

It was a very Eurosceptic speech and he won loud applause for his commitment to take Tory MEPs out of the EPP (although the loudest claps greeted his pledge to fly the Union flag outside of schools).  He rejected the ‘union’ destination of ‘ever closer union’ and called for a more decentralised and deregulated EU.  He told a moving story about the suffering of the Karen people in Burma and said that Conservatives should never look the other way when human beings were struggling for democracy, human rights or free and fair trade.  He was unapologetic about his support for the Iraq war and asked the war’s opponents to explain how the world could possibly be a better, safer place if Saddam had still been in power.

Near the end of his speech Dr Fox emphasised the problems of domestic violence and the inadequate care of people with mental health problems.  Both are dimensions of the ‘extra mile compassion’ that has characterised the ‘broken society’ theme of his campaign.

Near the end of his speech he outlined a little of his autobiography but – in what will be interpreted as a dig against David Davis – he said that this race was not about where you came from but where you were going.  He concluded by saying that the Conservative Party must be a hopeful party – committed to healing the broken society and restoring national pride.

Postscript

I am very glad that Liam Fox spotlighted human rights in his speech.  I heard him address the subject at a fringe meeting, convened last night by Gary Streeter MP.  It was one of the most exciting fringe events I have attended in many years of conference-going.

Dr Fox (pictured at the fringe meeting) promised to put a concern for freedom and human rights at the heart of Tory foreign policy.  He spoke movingly about suffering in Burma.  He questioned the moral legitimacy of the United Nations and the way that repressive regimes often dominate its proceedings.  He spoke with authority about China and the danger posed to its future stability by water shortages and the consequences of its one child policy (often enforced by horrendous sterilisation procedures).

Ben Rogers, a regular contributor to the Platform section of this blog and a human rights campaigner, spoke after Dr Fox. Dictatorships do not make reliable partners – in commerce or politics - Ben argued.  He reminded the meeting that our nation is described as The Mother Of The Free in Land Of Hope And Glory.  He urged the Conservative Party to build a Britain that nurtures freedom throughout the world for oppressed people. 

James Mawdsley, who was imprisoned in Burma for his campaigning, addressed the meeting about North Korea, which he had just visited.  He described horrific human rights abuses in that country and moved a number of the audience to tears.

Michael Gove MP, who also spoke at the meeting, said that Tory Governments must never give comfort to authoritarian regimes again.  He ridiculed the Tory party’s post-1997 opposition to Labour’s idea of an ethical foreign policy.  The Tories need their own (superior) ethical foreign policy, he said, and that should include rejection of ‘my sonofabitch’ realpolitiks.  He highlighted Britain’s all-too-close relationship with Saudi Arabia and said that it export of extremist Wahhabi thinking had gone unchallenged for far too long.

Mr Gove paid handsome tribute to Dr Fox for putting idealism back at the heart of Conservative foreign policy.  The team that Dr Fox is assembling on human rights – and the agenda that is building – is a huge credit to his time as Shadow Foreign Secretary.

Clarke plays Europe down whilst Fox plays it up

Today's Scotsman is one of a number of newspapers to note Ken Clarke's increasing attempts to nullify the European issue: "Kenneth Clarke yesterday signalled to Tory members that he will not push for Britain to join the euro should he become prime minister - his most significant concession yet to the party's eurosceptic majority."  The man who once said it was foolish to say 'never' has said 'never during his (would-be) leadership'.  At a fringe event hosted by The Independent yesterday Clarke argued that the Tories must end their "paranoia" over Europe and promised to appoint a shadow cabinet of Eurosceptics.  The Indy reports that he received a very warm reception and appeared to be winning converts as a result.

But if Ken Clarke wants Europe to be less of an issue, David Davis and Liam Fox appear determined to raise the issue's salience.  Liam Fox has discussed the circumstances under which Britain should leave the EU.  His position is enthusiastically welcomed in today's Sun - just like his quit-the-EPP position was embraced by last week's Telegraph.  This message may help him to appeal to the Eurosceptic Right of the Tory Party but it is also upsetting some the party's self-styled 'Euro-moderates'.  As noted on this blog last week, Dr Fox's message could become very divisive if he became leader.  It also endangers the foreign affairs position to which he was appointed in May.  One shadow minister told me that his "fawning attitude" to America and "strident" Euro-scepticism made him "unacceptable" as Shadow Foreign Secretary.   

Liam Fox promises red meat to Eurosceptics

Europe appears to be resurfacing as an issue in the Tory leadership race.  Top Tory donor Stuart Wheeler - who gave the party £5m for its 2001 campaign - has threatened to stop donating if Ken Clarke becomes Tory leader.  On Radio Four yesterday Mr Clarke (pictured with Tony Blair at the late '90s launch of Britain's pro-euro campaign) refused five times to say if his once passionate pro-euro views had changed.

Few, however, can doubt Dr Fox's Eurosceptic credentials.  Today's Telegraph reports that Dr Fox has promised to pull the Conservative Party out of the European Peoples' Party if he wins the leadership.  Conservative MEPs are currently members of the group which recently reaffirmed a commitment to one day realise a United States of Europe.  Promising to pull out of the EPP Dr Fox will highlight the group's beliefs in "powerful trade unions, redistributive taxation and a high minimum wage."

Dr Fox's clear message is warmly received within a Telegraph leading article (and is contrasted with other candidates' alleged fuzziness):

""Change to win," says David Cameron. "Time to win," counters Kenneth Clarke. "Modern Conservatism," suggests David Davis. Thankfully the Conservative leadership election is not a caption-writing competition. Yet, also thankfully, the launch of these underwhelming slogans is offset by a statement of real substance by another candidate.  Most things said by the leadership hopefuls are promises of what they would do in government in 2009 - an event remote in time and, some would say, in possibility. Yet Liam Fox promises to do something within his power as opposition leader this December: to withdraw the Tories from the European People's Party in the European Parliament."

Dr Fox's strong position on the EPP is only the latest example of his "braveheart-spirited" campaign.  He has also adopted courageous positions on abortion and Iraq.  This may attract admiration from core Tory supporters but viewers of 'Yes Minister' will remember that Sir Humphrey's most damning verdict on any policy was to tell his minister that it was "courageous".  A Fox leadership could be hugely controversial amongst the party's Euro-enthusiasts and social libertarians.

'Neocon Fox' exposes China's connections with Iran and Zimbabwe

Liam Fox is getting a reputation for being an American neocon.  That is the conclusion of those who have watched him take hawkish positions on Iraq and socially conservative positions on abortion.  His 'broken society' message also has strong similarities with George W Bush's compassionate conservatism.  All this is music to this blogger's ears but it is unclear if it will help him with British voters.  Ken Clarke certainly doesn't think so and, on Sunday, warned against importing Republican politics into Britain.  There have been rumours that Liam Fox might back Ken Clarke if his own campaign fails to prosper.  These rumours partly reflect unsubstantiated suggestions that Liam Fox and David Davis are hostile to one another.  When Dr Fox was Tory Chairman and David Davis was fighting to keep his marginal seat of Haltemprice and Howden, Dr Fox hardly gave Mr Davis a ringing endorsement.  "He's got matinee-idol looks, but we'll have to see," was all he could muster.  A Clarke-Fox alliance would almost be incredible, however, given the two men's very different views on Iraq, abortion and Europe.  Alice Thomson uses another argument to try and dampen speculation.  "His fiancée, Jesme," she writes in The Telegraph today, "is the medical director of the Roy Castle Lung Cancer Foundation. She told her future husband that she thinks that Mr Clarke is peddling death by promoting British American Tobacco."   

Dr Fox is in Washington DC again this week.  Four Tory MPs were spotted by my Washington mole accompanying the Shadow Foreign Secretary on the latest stop of Fox Tours: Phillip Dunne, Brooks Newmark, Mark Harper and John Penrose.  Dr Fox was speaking to the Heritage Foundation and my mole described his performance as "charismatic".  Dr Fox's remarks focused on China.  He noted how China had been cuddling up to Iran and Zimbabwe.  In both cases economic self-interest has been motivating China's actions:

"China has indicated it would not support taking Iran to the UN Security Council over its nuclear programme. Chinese firms are active in Iran in fields as diverse as dam building, steel mills, oil refineries and car manufacturing. In the medium term, China has plans to build pipelines between Kazakhstan and China passing through Iran. A real worry is that good Sino-Iranian relations also mean Chinese support for Iran's nuclear energy programme and Iranian access to improved ballistic missile technology...

"Beijing's decision to prop up the Mugabe regime in Zimbabwe may seem odd. Yet Zimbabwe has vast mineral and precious metal deposits which China covets. For that reason, China has financed Mugabe's new presidential mansion, supplied fighter aircraft and radar systems to Harare and generally kept the regime solvent when others have stepped backwards."

China's economically self-interested relations with dubious regimes make it a highly compromised and unreliable member of the UN Security Council.  The oil-for-food scandal exposed the extent of Russian and French commercial interests in Iraq.   Whatever labels his detractors try and stick on him, Dr Fox is bravely exposing the great weakness at the black heart of the United Nations.  It's a weakness that makes the UN an ineffective guardian of our security.

Dr Fox calls for 12-week abortion limits

Earlier this week I used an editorial to welcome Liam Fox's mournful reference to Britain's massive number of abortions.  I described his reference as a demonstration of political "courage".  By that standard Dr Fox was a lot braver on yesterday's Morgan & Platell programme.  This morning's Telegraph quotes him as saying:

"I would like to see the time limit reduced. I'd like to see it brought down serially from 20 [weeks]. I'd like to see it well below 20; I'd like to see us looking at limits more akin to some of the European countries at 12 to 14 weeks.  I think that a society that actually aborts 180,000 unborn children every year is a society that needs to be asking a lot of questions about itself… For me it's a simple personal belief. It says, thou shall not kill, it doesn't say, thou shall not kill unless Parliament says it's OK."

The Telegraph notes that Britain's laws are amongst the most permissive in Europe. "In France, " it notes, "abortion after 12 weeks is allowed only if two doctors say that a woman's health is endangered or the foetus has a serious abnormality. In Sweden, abortion is provided free and on demand until week 18. After that, a woman must secure permission from a medical board. Denmark imposes limits after 16 weeks."

The Observer found that the other leading candidates took much more pragmatic views on abortion:

"David Cameron and David Davis's camps made clear yesterday that both men support lowering the limit, but only to 18-20 and 20 weeks respectively. Kenneth Clarke declined to comment, but has previously opposed lowering the limit."

It's easy to say that Dr Fox's expression of these views is a crude tactic to attract the views of the socially conservative Cornerstone Group but there is no doubting Dr Fox's sincerity on pro-life matters.  He has been a long-standing opponent of abortion and established an advisory group on medical ethics when he was Conservative health spokesman.

Dr Fox's big picture speech

It was Liam Fox's turn to set out his big picture vision last night.  Three similarities with David Davis' speech of yesterday were striking:

First there was the commitment to 'bigger cake economics' (a big difference the two men have with Ken Clarke - as blogged last week):

"In the General Election campaign, the debate was merely about how to distribute the cake rather than how to increase the overall size of the cake.  That must now change.  Conservatives need to take time to explain both the economic and moral cases for reducing taxes.  Conservatives must recapture the wealth creation agenda. There has been a lot of discussion recently about the Laffer Curve. It is not complicated really. If you keep all your earnings, the government will get no revenue. If the government tries to take all your earnings, you won't bother to work.  The maximal tax yield, therefore, lies somewhere between the two..."

Second, there was compassionate conservatism:

"The signs of a broken society are all around us. In the increase in violent crime. In the growth of family breakdown. In worsening domestic violence. In record rates of abortion. In rising teenage pregnancy rates. Increasing numbers of suicides."

And, third, a commitment to the family:

"When healing the broken society, the family is our most decisive weapon... But the important point is that the worth of the family has been neglected by this government. Not just in the abolition of the married couples’ allowance – but by a series of financial incentives which not only bankroll anti-social behaviour, but incentivise the family’s collapse. The family is not just ignored by the Government: it is under attack."

Where Liam Fox goes further than David Davis is in his brave willingness to mention a subject like abortion (about which I intend to blog later) and in hinting that fighting poverty isn't just about social mobility.  Dr Fox's compassionate conservatism has more to say to those who are unlikely to ever become dynamic, taxpaying citizens.  His concern for the mentally ill, for example, illustrates this breadth of compassion.  DD, I am sure, has that concern, too, but he hasn't articulated it yet.

Liam Fox's speech also talked about asset insecurity, educational competitiveness, future energy needs and, of course, foreign policy.  It can be read on DrLiamFox.com.

Both DD and LF's speeches - as visitors to this site have pointed out - lack detail.  One of the big judgments for the electorate (whoever that will be) is consideration of who could build the best team to best provide the necessary detailed policy work.   What is clear, however, is that there are real choices in this contest.  The DD/LF view on tax, family and Iraq is a very different conservatism from that offered by Ken Clarke.