toryleadership

New declarations for Cameron and Clarke

Ken Clarke's public support reaches 26 this evening with the news that James Arbuthnot (William Hague's Chief Whip) and former Rifkind supporter, Andrew Pelling have endorsed him.  David Cameron picks up the support of three more MPs: Maria Miller (the new MP for Basingstoke), Peter Lilley (a leadership candidate in 1997 and former Deputy Tory Leader) and Graham Stuart (a new MP associated with the Cornerstone Group).

Ken Clarke boosted by Andrew Lansley's endorsement

"Ken Clarke has nothing to prove. He has been Education Secretary, Health Secretary, Home Secretary and Chancellor of the Exchequer.  It is clear that he is uniquely qualified to lead our party.  Ken is the candidate best placed to confront Brown and Blair and to restore trust in Conservative economic management.  For years the wider electorate has told us that Ken Clarke should be the leader of our party and Prime Minister of our country.  We should not ignore them again."

With those words Andrew Lansley, Shadow Health Secretary, has just declared for Ken Clarke.  He met members of his constituency association on Friday night and their clear hope, Mr Lansley reported, was that they would be able to choose between David Cameron and Ken Clarke in the final round.

He has personally chosen Mr Clarke because of his popular appeal and his ability to challenge Gordon Brown on the economy.  He dismissed today's polls which suggest that David Cameron is best placed to close the poll gap on Labour.  More important, he said, is Ken Clarke's long-established record of being a vote-winner.  David Cameron and David Davis had both been favourites but were untested compared to Ken Clarke who had "bankable" popularity and experience.   

Earlier today, on BBC1's Politics Show, Mr Clarke said that he was the obvious person to support if the Conservative Party wants to appeal to floating voters.  At the start of the contest he said that he was four times more popular than his nearest rival for the leadership.  His popularity advantage still stands at two-and-a-half to three times, he claimed.  KC, too, thinks that a Cameron versus Clarke run-off would make for the best final round.  Conservative activists would then be able to choose between himself who has the undoubted experience to be Prime Minister and David Cameron who has the most potential (of the other candiates) to occupy 10 Downing Street.  The Lansley-Clarke hope for a Cameron-Clarke run-off seems to be the preference of voters in conservativehome.com's unscientific online poll.  At this time of posting 48% would support David Cameron in Tuesday's first round; 25% would support Ken Clarke.  Punters at William Hill, however, have put their money on Mr Clarke being the first to be rejected by Tory MPs in Tuesday's ballot.

During the Politics Show interview Mr Clarke was asked about policy.  He emphasised his opposition to the Iraq war, his economic credentials and his support for Lords reform.  Trying to explain his failure to win many supporters amongst the 2005 intake he (probably unhelpfully for his prospects) suggested that new MPs were more influenced by the newspapers.  Longer-serving MPs had seen his skills at first-hand and were more likely to back him.

British Medical Journal hosts strong attack on Ken Clarke's tobacco interests

Mike Daube, Professor of Health Policy at the Curtin University of Technology, Australia, uses a column in the British Medical Journal to launch a stinging attack on Ken Clarke's involvement with British American Tobacco.  He makes ill-founded claims that companies such as BAT will enjoy "access at the highest levels" should Mr Clarke become Tory leader.  This is based on Mr Clarke's role as health minister in the early 1980s when an Observer article alleged that Government-tobacco industry relations "bordered on the improper".  Professor Daube's other concerns may be thought to be fairer.

The Australia-based academic begins his article by noting Benjamin Disraeli's contention that "The first consideration of a minister should be the health of the people."  He thinks that it is unacceptable for a former Health Secretary to be working in an industry which has such a negative impact on people's health.  He is particularly concerned at Mr Clarke's involvement with promoting tobacco to young people:

"[Ken Clarke] defends his company's activities with lines tobacco manufacturers have used for 50 years: "BAT did not want to sell their products to children and did not aim their products at children." This lacks credibility in London, let alone in developing countries, where children know little about the dangers of smoking but cannot miss BAT's aggressive advertising.  Clarke even (for an extra £25 000) became chairman of British American Racing, which in the words of BAT's advisers reaches "young people (who) are traditionally early adopters of new media capabilities and consequently a very receptive audience.""

Mr Clarke has pledged to sever his links with BAT if he becomes Tory leader.

Fox closes in on Clarke

Midnight has arrived and four Cornerstone MPs have just declared for Liam Fox: Mark Francois, Robert Goodwill, Owen Paterson and Angela Watkinson (pictured). 

Dr Fox is now breathing down Ken Clarke's neck (what a thought!) and many Westminster insiders now expect that it will be Mr Clarke who has to drop out of the race after the first round of voting.  Another ten Cornerstone MPs have yet to declare and most are expected to endorse Dr Fox.  Expect more declarations in Sunday's papers to create some momentum for Dr Fox ahead of Tuesday's vote.

More progress for David Cameron (at the expense of Ken Clarke)

The Cameron campaign has just announced that it has won the backing of two MPs who backed Ken Clarke's 2001 leadership bid.  Robert Key (who previously had not declared) and Jacqui Lait (who had been one of Sir Malcolm Rifkind's six public supporters) take Mr Cameron's level of parliamentary support up to 34.

Ken Clarke might serve the right leader

There have been a few endorsements this afternoon - Douglas Carswell and Bernard Jenkin have both endorsed David Cameron and John Penrose has joined Ken Clarke's list of public backers.  John Penrose is (I think) the first of the 2005 intake to back Mr Clarke.

The hustings of the '92 group are now underway and Ken Clarke has been the first of the four candidates to be grilled.  Interestingly he did not rule out serving the next leader (if his own bid is unsuccessful) - if that leader follows 'the right approach'.  In 1997 and 2001 Mr Clarke ruled out serving his opponents, if he was defeated.  His response could, of course, be merely tactical but let's not be too cynical!

Ken Clarke t-shirts

He Drinks.  He Smokes.
He'll Get Us Lots Of Votes...
Ken Clarke!

If you're not quite sure what what to wear at the next Conservative cheese and wine party the funsters at Concept T-Shirts have got the answer.

The design isn't quite as sophisticated as a Katharine Hamnett production but it does fit the blokeish market.

The good news for Mr Clarke is that the t-shirt comes in XXL and XXXL sizes.

Cameron and Clarke speeches delight conference

David Cameron and Ken Clarke were both received very well by today's conference and gave David Davis' camp something to think about.  If either DC or KC face DD in the final round (which DD is almost guaranteed to reach) their capable and convincing public speaking skills will make them formidable opponents.  Mr Davis, excellent on TV, is not a compelling public speaker and he bombed giving a speech to a Bow Group fringe event yesterday and again today, to Reform.  Mr Davis' aides are anxiously already playing down expectations for their candidate's speech tomorrow (when Dr Fox will also speak).

Mr Cameron spoke before lunchtime and without notes.  He emphasised his message of a 'modern compassionate conservatism' and called for social entrepreneurship to be as important to Conservatism today as economic entrepreneurship was to 1980s Conservatism.  In a nod to the Cornerstone group (dubbed the Tombstone group by one cynic today) he advocated tax support for the institution of marriage.  He concluded by advocating a course to a Conservative Party of aspiration, social justice and concern for the world's poorest people and he promised that there would be 'no turning back' on that course if he became Tory leader.

If Mr Cameron emphasised compassionate conservatism, Mr Clarke focused on economic competence.  He spoke about his own record as Chancellor, about protecting the economic achievements of the Thatcher years and of the importance of low taxation for economic well-being.  He blasted the way Labour had undermined the integrity of the civil service and parliament.  Gordon Brown would be as bad an 'Emperor' as Tony Blair had been a 'President', he warned.  No-one was more of a control freak than GB, he insisted, and also pointed to the Chancellor's arrogant treatment of colleagues and his obsession with headlines.

KC attempted to convince the audience that he was the 'Big Beast' that the Tories needed.  He jokingly suggested that he was heeding David Willetts' advice to work harder and retire longer.  He was the Tories' Prime Minister in waiting and had been kept waiting by the Tories for a long time!  He concluded:

"I may not be everyone's cup of tea, but I promise you this.  If you give me the chance to lead this party, I will lead it unspun.  I will say what I think, and try to do what I say, as I have always done in politics."   

Clarke plays Europe down whilst Fox plays it up

Today's Scotsman is one of a number of newspapers to note Ken Clarke's increasing attempts to nullify the European issue: "Kenneth Clarke yesterday signalled to Tory members that he will not push for Britain to join the euro should he become prime minister - his most significant concession yet to the party's eurosceptic majority."  The man who once said it was foolish to say 'never' has said 'never during his (would-be) leadership'.  At a fringe event hosted by The Independent yesterday Clarke argued that the Tories must end their "paranoia" over Europe and promised to appoint a shadow cabinet of Eurosceptics.  The Indy reports that he received a very warm reception and appeared to be winning converts as a result.

But if Ken Clarke wants Europe to be less of an issue, David Davis and Liam Fox appear determined to raise the issue's salience.  Liam Fox has discussed the circumstances under which Britain should leave the EU.  His position is enthusiastically welcomed in today's Sun - just like his quit-the-EPP position was embraced by last week's Telegraph.  This message may help him to appeal to the Eurosceptic Right of the Tory Party but it is also upsetting some the party's self-styled 'Euro-moderates'.  As noted on this blog last week, Dr Fox's message could become very divisive if he became leader.  It also endangers the foreign affairs position to which he was appointed in May.  One shadow minister told me that his "fawning attitude" to America and "strident" Euro-scepticism made him "unacceptable" as Shadow Foreign Secretary.   

Liam Fox promises red meat to Eurosceptics

Europe appears to be resurfacing as an issue in the Tory leadership race.  Top Tory donor Stuart Wheeler - who gave the party £5m for its 2001 campaign - has threatened to stop donating if Ken Clarke becomes Tory leader.  On Radio Four yesterday Mr Clarke (pictured with Tony Blair at the late '90s launch of Britain's pro-euro campaign) refused five times to say if his once passionate pro-euro views had changed.

Few, however, can doubt Dr Fox's Eurosceptic credentials.  Today's Telegraph reports that Dr Fox has promised to pull the Conservative Party out of the European Peoples' Party if he wins the leadership.  Conservative MEPs are currently members of the group which recently reaffirmed a commitment to one day realise a United States of Europe.  Promising to pull out of the EPP Dr Fox will highlight the group's beliefs in "powerful trade unions, redistributive taxation and a high minimum wage."

Dr Fox's clear message is warmly received within a Telegraph leading article (and is contrasted with other candidates' alleged fuzziness):

""Change to win," says David Cameron. "Time to win," counters Kenneth Clarke. "Modern Conservatism," suggests David Davis. Thankfully the Conservative leadership election is not a caption-writing competition. Yet, also thankfully, the launch of these underwhelming slogans is offset by a statement of real substance by another candidate.  Most things said by the leadership hopefuls are promises of what they would do in government in 2009 - an event remote in time and, some would say, in possibility. Yet Liam Fox promises to do something within his power as opposition leader this December: to withdraw the Tories from the European People's Party in the European Parliament."

Dr Fox's strong position on the EPP is only the latest example of his "braveheart-spirited" campaign.  He has also adopted courageous positions on abortion and Iraq.  This may attract admiration from core Tory supporters but viewers of 'Yes Minister' will remember that Sir Humphrey's most damning verdict on any policy was to tell his minister that it was "courageous".  A Fox leadership could be hugely controversial amongst the party's Euro-enthusiasts and social libertarians.