toryleadership

David Cameron’s Clause IV moment gives him some momentum

GOOD WEEK, BAD WEEK (EDITION THREE)

This undoubtedly has been David Cameron’s week (+3).

> He received the front page banner headline in Wednesday morning’s Telegraph for his thoughtful speech to Policy Exchange. The speech was also given generous billing on that night’s BBC News bulletins.

> Newspapers – including The Sun and London’s Evening Standard – then appointed DC as DD’s leading opponent.

> And he received the financial backing of the heavyweight Tory donor, Lord Harris.

What was interesting, almost startling, about David Cameron’s speech this week was his commitment to tax breaks for marriage. DC is seen as the arch-modernisers’ candidate and they have always been associated with the most socially liberal of policies. They, it was thought, are the least likely group to support an institution associated with the most traditional of Tories. DC and his speechwriters – Michael Gove, Oliver Letwin and Steve Hilton - looked at the evidence which shows how marriage underpins child welfare and social justice and they acted on that evidence. The BBC’s Martha Kearney once said that abandonment of support for marriage would be the Tories’ Clause IV moment – proving that they were in touch with the modern world. In fact: support for marriage may be David Cameron’s Clause IV moment – proving that the modernisers (at least some of them) are in touch with the real world. There is also a lot of low politics here, of course. Despite the disproportionate attention that media-types like Ms Kearney give to the Soho modernisers there are relatively few of them within the ranks of the Conservative parliamentary party. By embracing marriage David Cameron is wooing the block of traditional Tory MPs who are instinctively likely to vote for David Davis or Liam Fox.

At this stage it is important not to over-state David Cameron’s prospects. This blog’s ’Who’s backing who?’ analysis suggests that he’s yet to win the support of many MPs. The ex-Carlton TV executive may be the darling of the political pundits but DC’s campaign needs many more parliamentary backers before it can be taken very seriously.

David Davis (+1) made a little more progress this week. Sketchwriters and commentators gave good reviews of his parliamentary opposition to Charles Clarke’s ID cards bill. He also won the backing of former Tory Treasurer Lord Kalms. DD’s main weakness remains the antics of his lieutenants. One MP told me this week that their bullying continued to antagonise their colleagues. Three questions, he said, could still sink David Davis:

”Do you really want Derek Conway as Chief Whip?
Andrew Mitchell as Party Chairman?
Eric Forth as Leader of the House?”

Next week will be a very important week for DD. He gives his first big speech of the campaign – to the Centre for Policy Studies. He needs to rise above the bland and show that he has a plan to lift the Tories above the decade-long-flatlining that has just been carefully analysed by Lord Ashcroft.

Liam Fox (unchanged) is rumoured to be picking up more parliamentary supporters but this needs to be substantiated by public declarations.

Andrew Lansley (+1) had Sunday’s media all too himself and used it to emphasise the problem with the Tory Party’s “personality”. His aides suggested that Ken Clarke (unchanged) might be prepared to back him but today’s Telegraph story still suggests that Ken will run himself (on an anti-war, pro-Old Europe ticket).

David Willetts (unchanged) was very quiet this week but is speaking to the Child Poverty Action Group today.

Other candidates continue to attract attention but are not going anywhere in terms of parliamentary support… Alan Duncan (-1), Theresa May (-1) and Sir Malcolm Rifkind (-1). Perhaps it’s time for these candidates to make gracious exits and back one of the frontrunner candidates. The breadth of the Tory field is already producing some public ridicule.

Last week's 'good week, bad week' can be reviewed here.

David Davis is this week's winner

GOOD WEEK, BAD WEEK (EDITION TWO)

In last week’s first ’good week, bad week’ I awarded the week to Dr Liam Fox. Some read this as a personal endorsement of him. Not necessarily so. I was simply suggesting that I thought he’d had the best week. And as for the ratings (eg +3 or –1) they merely suggest direction. They don’t mean that I think the person with the week’s biggest plus rating is heading the field overall. After a few of these postings, however, I will produce some kind of composite rating as a judgment on the whole campaign. So, without further clarifications… what of this week?

Wat Tyler at David Davis for Leader will be pleased that I am going to give David Davis a +4 rating. Half of this is due to positive stuff by him and half due to the failures of the other candidates. Getting the endorsement of the left-leaning Damian Green (and, in particular, Damian’s one nation-rooted reasons for that endorsement) certainly boosted DD’s claim to be a leader that can unite the whole party. DD’s other positive achievement was his strong opposition to Labour’s Incitement to Religious Hatred legislation (see arguments against this authoritarian legislation here and here). But the other half of the explanation for this week’s strong DD showing is the failure of another candidate to lead the opposition to him. The chasing pack is still impossibly wide.

David Cameron (no change on the week) still looks most likely to lead the Stop-Davis-Coalition. The week started well for him with endorsements from Boris Johnson, George Osborne and Oliver Letwin but he has failed to pick up momentum within the wider parliamentary party.

The contest’s third David - David Willetts (+1) - has done okay this week. London’s Evening Standard reports that he may have twenty parliamentary backers. This may be a little exaggerated but DW has now assembled an inner team run by another of parliament's nicest people - Shadow Northern Ireland Secretary, David Lidington MP. DW also won the backing of the FT’s Philip Stephens. On Tuesday, Mr Stephens said that DW was the only contender who was asking the right questions and providing answers. Mr Willetts’ candour, he went on, would appeal to the AB social groups that were most appalled by Michael Howard’s campaign (“as ineffectual as it was unpleasant”). Stephens concluded: “Mr Willetts should stand for the leadership. The rest of us should judge the maturity or otherwise of the Conservatives on how well he fares.” Most still think that DW is really running for the position he has long coveted – Shadow Chancellor. He won’t have helped that ambition with his piece in yesterday’s Times. It was sceptical about tax cuts for the poor and the frontrunning, tax-cutting DD is unlikely to appoint a Treasury spokesman with such views.

Liam Fox (+1) flew across the Atlantic to speak to the Heritage Foundation and gave a workmanlike speech on the economic and undemocratic weaknesses of Old Europe. He said all of the right things but nothing new.

Ken Clarke (-1) had a bad week. Although Ann Widdecombe offered her considerable support, Ken lost the backing of one-time allies Damian Green and Ian Taylor.

Malcolm Rifkind also gets a –1. He has been invisible.

In the week that IDS held his social justice awards ceremony, Theresa May also gets a special award - Hero(ine) Of The Week. On Wednesday she stood up for party democracy. She has very few MPs behind her possible leadership bid but she has demonstrated principle in a parliamentary party that has shamefully voted to restrict internal democracy.

If readers will forgive me I’m also going to award this blog a +1. In yesterday’s Telegraph Ben Rooney wrote: “Political blogging here has yet to assume the influence it has in America, but standing tallest on the Tory benches is conservativehome.blogs.com/toryleadership.” Thank you, Ben, and thanks to all the people who regularly post comments. More at least once a day…

Dr Fox is the week's winner and David Davis has more to worry about

GOOD WEEK, BAD WEEK (EDITION ONE)

This is the first of a new feature – ‘Good week, bad week’ – in which I’ll try and record who has got momentum and who is faltering. Unlike this blog’s other entries it will be a little more opinionated.

Liam Fox (+3) certainly has enjoyed the best week. It began with his Sunday Telegraph interview that revealed how three respected Conservatives - Stephen O’Brien, Chris Grayling and Oliver Heald – had formed his inner team. In that interview he also talked about fixing Britain’s ‘broken society’ – saying that fixing social problems should be as important to today’s Tories as fixing economic problems was in the 1980s. This was a reassuring contrast to the insistence on a neo-Thatcherite ‘we must cut the size of the state’ test, with which he began his campaign. Dr Fox’s third success of the week has been to continue to ably perform his new responsibilities as Shadow Foreign Secretary. His ideas on Europe were yesterday welcomed in a Telegraph Op-Ed.

The Coalition to Stop Davis has had a good week (+3). It knows that DD probably cannot be beaten if the grassroots members retain the final say in the leadership election. This week’s indicative vote by MPs to scrap members’ voting rights gives the Coalition heart. DD is still the favourite to win any election but the Coalition (whose likely candidate would still be David Cameron) has a better chance amongst the parliamentary party where DD has many enemies.

David Davis (-1) started the week well with a continuing commitment to ‘one nation Conservatism’ in The Observer and a promise to form a shadow cabinet of all the talents on Monday’s Today programme. I’ve given him a minus one, however, because of the possible change in the leadership process and because of Liam Fox’s good week. Mr Davis can only beat ‘The Coalition’ if he has united ‘the right’ behind him. He can’t do that as long as Dr Fox is a serious candidate. A real conspiracy theorist could think that ‘The Coalition’ would engineer a Fox candidacy if it didn’t already exist.

Andrew Lansley gets a +1 for the week because of his unexpected third placed rating by the bookies. This gives him a better chance of being the modernisers’ candidate that Tim Yeo is hoping to see emerge.

Sir Malcolm Rifkind and David Willetts both score –1 for quiet weeks. If either candidate is going to be taken seriously they have to impress more. Frontrunners like David Davis and Ken Clarke are strong enough candidates to pause whenever they choose. Rifkind and Willetts need to grab more attention.