toryleadership

David Davis in third place in poll of Tory voters

First we had a dramatic surge towards David Cameron amongst Tory members (YouGov)... then a more modest movement amongst the general public (ICM)... and now, completing the picture, Populus in The Times offer a view of how Tory voters have warmed to the 39-year-old Shadow Education Secretary.

The Populus poll finds that Mr Cameron's support amongst Tory voters has risen tenfold - from 3% identifying him as the best leader to a new level of 33%.  Mr Cameron ties with Mr Clarke (who has seen his rating drop by 22% since early September).  Populus' finding shows that it is not only Mr Davis (trailing with only 12% support amongst Tory voters) who has been damaged by The Cameron Phenomenon; Ken Clarke's leadership hopes have been dealt a mighty blow, too.

ICM poll undermines Clarke's leadership pitch

An ICM poll for BBC1's Politics Show looks - on the face of it - to reinforce Ken Clarke's claim to be the one candidate who can most easily win amongst the general public.  Closer examination of the poll suggests, however, that his advantage merely reflects a recognition factor.  The numbers below - in brackets - illustrate the change in approval over the last month and it suggests that Mr Davis and particularly Mr Cameron can erode Mr Clarke's advantage, if given the time:

KEN CLARKE 27% (-13%)
DAVID DAVIS 13% (+3%)
DAVID CAMERON 13% (+9%)
LIAM FOX 7% (+4%)
MALCOLM RIFKIND 3% (-1%)

The changes in this survey of all voters are much less dramatic than those found by YouGov amongst party members but still provide a welcome birthday present to David Cameron, who turns 39 today.  Another present comes in the shape of an endorsement from top Tory donor and Eurosceptic businessman Michael Spencer.  Mr Spencer, CEO of ICAP, reportedly paid the £250,000 bill for hiring Lynton Crosby as Tory campaign supremo at the last election.  Explaining his endorsement he said:

"David Cameron has shown in Blackpool that he has an outstanding ability to communicate and connect well beyond traditional Tory boundaries. Here at last is someone with the instinct and feel to reconnect the party with those former supporters it has largely lost: young voters, women and the victims of social breakdown.  He offers a compassionate vision of a Britain that will appeal to young and old, men and women. He has a killer combination of conviction and inspiration. The Conservatives should choose him.”

Support for Cameron surges amongst party members (and collapses for David Davis)

A YouGov poll for tomorrow's Sunday Times shows that support for David Cameron (based on a survey of 746 Tory party members) has more than doubled from 16% to 39%.

The same survey shows support for David Davis has halved - from 30% to 14%.

The numbers below compare the situation now with that which prevailed in early September:

DAVID CAMERON: 39% (16%)
KEN CLARKE: 26% (30%)
DAVID DAVIS: 14% (30%)
LIAM FOX: 13% (13%)
MALCOLM RIFKIND: 1% (4%)

Peter Kellner, Chairman of YouGov, said that he had "never seen such a big change in such a short time in 35 years of reporting and conducting opinion polls".

44% of those surveyed had changed their minds over the last week and nearly two-thirds of that group became supporters of David Cameron.

YouGov also set up run-offs between the candidates and David Davis would now only beat Liam Fox:

CAMERON (66%) vs DAVIS (27%)
CAMERON (60%) vs CLARKE (33%)
CLARKE (49%) vs DAVIS (44%)
DAVIS (44%) vs FOX (41%)

The collapse in support for David Davis appears to reflect two main factors:

• 65% of Conservative Party members surveyed by YouGov reported that David Davis performed badly at Blackpool.
• 63% thought that Mr Davis ‘is unlikely to inspire voters’.

Ken Clarke's poll advantage disappears in dynamic analysis

YouGov and The Spectator have combined to produce the most interesting poll of the leadership campaign.  Stephan Shakespeare describes what his polling organisation found when they exposed 1,000 people to each of the four main candidates' five principal characteristics:

"Without the immediate advantage of recognition, Ken Clarke was no longer the front-runner. Once the public were given pictures and information about candidates they may not previously have been familiar with, David Cameron and David Davis became the candidates who most increased people’s likelihood to vote Conservative — up from 3.3 to 4.2."

14% of Tory members would resign if Ken Clarke became leader

A YouGov survey of Tory Party members in today's Telegraph produces a number of interesting  findings...

Ken Clarke is the first choice of more members than any other candidate.  Ken Clarke wins 33% of first preferences.  David Davis gets 28%; David Cameron 17%; Liam Fox 8%; and Sir Malcolm Rifkind 4%.

If the final round was between David Davis and Ken Clarke, Mr Davis leads by just 48% to 45%.   Mr Davis would beat Mr Cameron by 53% to 36%.  The Clarke-Davis run-off result is much closer than the Davis camp had hoped and it is no longer clear that Mr Davis can be regarded as this contest's clear front-runner.  As this site's 'Good week, bad week' feature has argued for two successive weeks (here and here), Mr Davis' campaign has been uninspirational.  If the momentum stays with Ken Clarke there is a real possibility that he can win this race.  Watlington's warning of 30th August that "Ken Clarke will be the next Conservative Leader... if the Conservative Right does not unite behind a single candidate" looks more and more prescient.

14% would resign their Conservative Party membership if Ken Clarke became Tory leader compared to just 2% for each of Messrs Cameron, Davis and Fox.  Ken Clarke is clearly the most divisive of the leadership contenders and one in seven members told YouGov that they were prepared to quit if Ken Clarke became Tory leader.  These people clearly feel strongly against Mr Clarke but threats of these kind don't always materialise.   Legions of Man United supporters threatened to rip up their season tickets and boycott MUFC if Malcolm Glazer bought their club.  The last time I looked there were no gaps on the terraces.  In any case, Clarke supporters would say that their man would attract new members to the party but the risk of a loss of members to UKIP or another Eurosceptic party could open up a new flank of opposition to the Conservative Party.  The Referendum Party cost the Tories tens of seats at the 1997 election because the Major-Heseltine-Clarke government held such uncertain views on Europe. 

For those not wanting Ken Clarke to be leader, 97% cited "He is too keen on European integration" as a contributing factor.  Age was mentioned by 69%, his views on Iraq by 52%, his tobacco interests by 48%; and the fact that he was a Cabinet minister during the Major years by 36%.

Nearly two-thirds (63%) said that the "final choice" of who becomes Tory leader should be made by Tory MPs (down from 71% when the question was posed by YouGov in May) and 31% said the choice should be by rank-and-file members (up from 23%).  An online ConservativeHome survey found very similar results to this YouGov survey.  We also found, however, that if members were asked if they should have some direct democratic say in the election of the leader there was a reversal in the split with as many wanting some say as prepared to give the MPs the final say.  If members of the Constitutional College were to vote on exactly the same lines (as revealed by YouGov) Mr Howard's disenfranchisement proposals would be narrowly defeated as two-thirds of those eligible to vote must approve the rollback of democracy plans.  The Party establishment's last throw of the die has been to issue threats to Constitutional College members.   Last week the leading figures of the National Convention, led by Raymond Monbiot, sent out a letter.  It stated: "The Conservative Party is in a very serious position. We have lost three elections in a row. We need a new Leader as soon as possible so that we can take the fight to Labour and the Liberal Democrats and we need him or her to have the support of the Parliamentary Party."  It warned: "If we stick with the current system we won’t have a new Leader until January; if we adopt the proposed system we would have one by early November. And an election under the current system will cost several hundred thousand pounds." If we hadn't embarked upon the Monbiot process we could, of course, have had a leader by now.   Lord Hodgson has also demolished the other two Monbiot arguments.  The last ballot of party members was profitable and an election under the existing rules need only take eight weeks - producing a new leader by late November.  What is absolutely clear, however, is that if the Howard-Maude-Monbiot reforms do secure last minute passage it will be because of last minute threats and not by force of argument.

Ken Clarke trounces rivals in Newsnight poll

Tonight's Newsnight commissioned an ICM poll on the Tory leadership race.  It found strong support for Ken Clarke's leadership bid.  ICM asked one thousand people 'who would make the best Tory leader?'  These are the answers:

Ken Clarke: 40%
David Davis: 10%
David Cameron: 4%
Malcolm Rifkind: 4%
Liam Fox: 3%
David Willetts: 2%

ICM also asked who would make them more or less likely to vote Conservative.  Mr Clarke won a positive rating of 12% (20% more likelys minus 8% less likelys).  David Davis got a -3% rating (7% minus 10%) and David Cameron got a -4% rating (3% minus 7%).  Figures for the other candidates weren't broadcast (if they were sought).

Ken Clarke welcomed the survey:

"It is nice to know that such a wide section of the public hold me in such high regard and have confidence in me.  The poll shows that under my leadership, the Conservative Party would have the prospect of winning the next election."

'12% more likely' doesn't actually show that, Mr Clarke, but it does show that - at this stage - you appear more likely to help the Tories than the other candidates.  'At this stage' is the vital caveat.

Michael Gove MP, a Cameron supporter, interviewed on the Newsnight programme, said that it would be unhelpful for a 21st century Conservative Party to be led by a man who first held ministerial office in 1972.  Mr Gove said that the poll only proved one thing - After thirty years in politics Ken Clarke is much better known than his rivals.  Mr Gove was echoing the views of Oliver Letwin MP.  On last Wednesday's Today programme Mr Letwin said that if someone other than Mr Clarke is elected as Leader of the Conservative Party, they will be subject to a huge amount of publicity and will become at least as well known as Ken Clarke is now.   The key question is not 'who is best known now?' but 'who can best lead the Conservatives on the long road back to government?'

The other missing ingredient of the 'at this stage' polling is that it does not capture the possibility that Mr Clarke could split the Conservative Party from top to bottom.  How will Bill Cash and the party's other Eurosceptics react to having a leader who disagrees with the direction of the last eight years?  How will supporters of the Iraq war cope with Mr Clarke's long-held opposition to the US-led intervention?

What would voters think of Mr Clarke after a renewed period of Tory civil war?

Who has put £500 on a Ken Clarke leadership?

Last week William Hill were declaring that Ken Clarke enjoyed "very little recent support".  Hills are singing a very different tune today:

"Bookmakers William Hill have slashed the price of Ken Clarke becoming the next leader of the Conservative Party from 10/1 to 5/1 following a massive Bank Holiday punt. Hills took scores of three figure bets on Clarke over the weekend, the biggest of which was £500 at 10/1 from a punter in Nottinghamshire. Hills have lengthened David Davis odds from 1/3 to 4/11 with the other front runner David Cameron unchanged at 4/1."

Who is this Nottinghamshire punter?  Someone in Ken Clarke's Rushcliffe constituency?

David Davis remains bookies' "red hot" favourite

Ken Clarke's repositioning on the euro and with regard to his business interests hasn't impressed the betting fraternity.  Earlier today William Hill reported "very little recent support for Ken Clarke who is still freely available at 10/1 to succeed Michael Howard as leader of the opposition".  Noting that David Davis was "the red hot 1/3 odds-on favourite with David Cameron the 4/1 second favourite",  Hill's spokesman said:

"The money, and therefore the odds, paint a pretty grim picture for Ken Clarke and his supporters, as they suggest that he is well off the pace of the two frontrunners Cameron and Davis. The only good news we can give Ken Clarke and his supporters is that in the last two leadership contests the original favourite (in this case Davis) have not been the eventual winners."

Hill's full list of odds are: "D Davis 1/3, D Cameron 4/1, M Rifkind 10/1, K Clarke 10/1, L Fox 12/1, W Hague 16/1, G Osborne 25/1, A Lansley 25/1, D Willetts 33/1, A Duncan 33/1, T Yeo 40/1, J Bercow 50/1, T May 66/1, O Letwin 66/1".

Punters raise prospect of Andrew Lansley candidacy

This morning's Telegraph lists the latest betting on the leadership race.

The betting will give particular encouragement to Andrew Lansley. The Shadow Health Secretary has hardly attracted any press attention, and has not shone in the opinion polls, but at 9/1 he is slightly ahead of more talked about candidates like Sir Malcolm Rifkind and Ken Clarke. The full list of odds are:

"David Davis 4/5 from evens
David Cameron 6/1 from 5/1
Andrew Lansley 9/1
Malcolm Rifkind 10/1
Ken Clarke 10/1
Liam Fox 12/1
Tim Yeo 16/1
Alan Duncan 20/1
David Willetts 25/1
Theresa May 33/1
Damian Green 50/1
John Redwood 50/1"

Up until now Mr Lansley's only foray into the campaign was to suggest a more liberal sex education policy and a new branding for for the party - of 'Reform Conservatives'.

Ken Clarke boosted by Times poll

A Populus poll in this morning's Times finds that Ken Clarke is the most popular candidate for the leadership of the Conservative Party. His popularity is greatest amongst all and Tory voters.

The key numbers are as follows for all voters (and Tory voters in brackets):

Ken Clarke - 26% (24%)
David Davis - 11% (20%)
Sir Malcolm Rifkind - 5% (6%)
John Redwood - 4% (5%)
Liam Fox - 3% (6%)
David Cameron - 2% (3%)

Populus' findings are not easy to compare with those by YouGov for last week's Telegraph. YouGov also focused on Tory voters but their second category was Tory members, not all voters. Also, YouGov asked respondents about their top TWO choices for leader - Populus sought only respondents' top choice.

Nonetheless the survey gives Clarke a big boost and dampens the popular case for David Cameron. Mr Cameron came second in the YouGov poll amongst party members but hardly registered in this Populus poll.

Populus also found that Tory voters were much less likely to want big changes in the Conservative Party. 41% said that the Conservative Party "just needs to stick to its guns and put over its existing ideas more strongly". Only 18% of all voters agreed with that. 43% of all voters thought that the Tories "need to change significantly, get more in touch with life in modern Britain and become more moderate".