toryleadership

David Cameron set for landslide victory, say two surveys

A YouGov/ Telegraph survey of 661 current members of the Conservative Party suggests that David Cameron will be the next Conservative leader and that he will win an overwhelming majority.  YouGov predicts that Mr Cameron will win 67% of the vote, against Mr Davis' 33%.

That result echoes that of this site's new Conservative Members' Panel.  New members are still being recruited to this panel but the 'who would you most like to be the next leader of the Conservative Party?' question produced overwhelming support for David Cameron.  Before the panel was promoted to non-visitors to this site, 848 Tory members had joined it.  552 said that they were voting for David Cameron and 249 for David Davis.  Excluding the don't knows this gives David Cameron 69% of the vote and 31% for David Davis.

ConservativeHome's panel is much younger than the Conservative membership as a whole and can only be taken as indicative at this stage. 

If the two surveys are more or less accurate Mr Cameron is set to secure a huge victory over his opponent.  If Mr Davis secures only 30% of the vote Mr Cameron's advisers will be encouraging the new leader to demote him to a position like Defence (many visitors to this site predicted as much in their Fantasy Shadow Cabinets).  Mr Cameron faces 'congestion' in his shadow cabinet decisions with George Osborne, Liam Fox, William Hague and Mr Davis all leading candidates for the top three portfolios of Chancellor, Foreign affairs and Home affairs.

If Mr Davis performs surprisingly well - 40% and more - he will be impossible to move.

I spoke to one Davis supporter yesterday and asked what would happen if Mr Davis was given the Defence portfolio.  He predicted that it wouldn't be accepted.  "Offence more likely," he joked.  I think he was joking...

£200,000 bet on Cameron is largest ever

Today's Scotsman:

"Mr Cameron's front-runner status was underlined by a £200,000 bet on him being named leader next Tuesday, said by bookmaker William Hill to be the largest political wager ever taken.  At odds of just 25-1 on, the mystery punter, who placed the bet at a Windsor shop, stands to win just £8,000 if he is proved right.  William Hill cut the odds on a Cameron victory even further, to 66-1 on, after taking the bet, compared with 14-1 against for former front-runner Mr Davis to win."

Who could be the mystery bidder?  Someone from Windsor Castle?  We know HM Queen likes a flutter!  Or maybe Windsor's millionaire MP Adam Afriye?

Mr Cameron's 66-1 on status comes after The Telegraph revealed that 65.4% of members had now voted.

Cameron more popular than Blair

A YouGov survey for Sky News suggests that David Cameron is a more popular choice for PM than Tony Blair.  Mr Cameron still trails the next Tory leader's likely opponent at the next election, Gordon Brown, however:

"Four out of 10 (41%) wanted the Shadow Education Secretary to replace the current Premier, while 38% would rather Mr Blair stayed in charge and 20% could not choose between them.  When compared with Mr Brown, the Chancellor led Mr Cameron by 43% to 38% and Shadow Home Secretary Mr Davis by 46% to 32%."

The poll also revealed that Mr Cameron enjoys more support from both Tory voters and all voters in his race with David Davis.

The poll was taken for today's Sky News Leadership debate (airing first at 3pm and again at 9pm).  ConservativeHome will be blogging on this final TV debate of the contest soon after it has been broadcast.

HAVE YOU VOTED IN CONSERVATIVEHOME'S OWN SURVEY OF TORY OPINION?

Cam on course to be next Tory leader

"A report in a tabloid newspaper this week that Mr Davis was surging ahead among Tory voters finds almost no echo in YouGov's survey of party members."

That paragraph from Anthony King, Professor of Government at Essex University and The Telegraph's polling analyst, is a clear dig at this week's Times/Populus poll which gave David Davis an unexpected 50%-37% lead amongst 122 Tory voters.   Today's Telegraph/YouGov survey of 748 Tory  members is not directly comparable but it suggests that Mr Davis has not built on his post-Question Time swing.  It is notable that Mr Davis' successful defeat of Tony Blair over the 90-day terrorist provisions does not appear to have won him new grassroots supporters.

The Telegraph suggests that Mr Cameron won a 68%-32% lead amongst the third who have voted and has only a slightly smaller lead (66%-34%) amongst those yet to vote.  If these figures are correct David Cameron - 'Cam' - is on course to be elected the next Conservative leader by a wider margin than IDS enjoyed over Ken Clarke.

Mr Cameron's lead appears to reflect his perceived electability - rather than his policies.  By a majority of 64% to 21% those surveyed believe that Mr Cameron will do most to boost the Tories' chances of winning the next election.  One of Mr Cameron's policies has the opposite effect on grassroots Tories with 65% over 19% rejecting his stance on ecstasy.

Can we trust today's Times poll?

Big doubts are now attached to this morning's Times survey which gave David Davis a surprising lead amongst Tory voters.  The result was based on a sample of only 122 voters.  Populus started with a sample of 1,500 for their headline voting intention number but then split the sample into two and asked 750 people different questions.  Such a split is usually done to save the client (in this case The Times) some money.

The 750 or so voters of which the Tory leadership question was asked included only 122 Tory voters (once the ‘won’t votes’ and ‘don’t knows’ etc are excluded).  Therefore: The figures splashed by The Times have a massive sampling error.  Populus have been enirely open with the limited size of the sample on their website but has The Times been irresponsible with its coverage?

Davis leads Cameron by 50% to 37% amongst Tory voters

A new poll for today's Times gives David Davis a surprising lead amongst Conservative Party voters.  Last month David Cameron led David Davis by 45% to 15%.  This month the Populus survey gives David Davis a 50% over 37% advantage.  The poll was taken after Mr Davis' pledges on tax and Europe and his well-received Question Time performance.  The swing to Mr Davis may also reflect Mr Cameron's muddled ecstasy policy.

The poll should be treated cautiously, however.  Populus surveyed Tory voters - not the members who wil actually elect the next Tory leader.  Populus' General Election tracker poll for The Times/ITN also predicted a very big win for Tony Blair just a couple of days before May 5th's contest.  Populus' reputation has never fully recovered since.

The survey also contains some good news for Mr Cameron.  All voters favour Mr Cameron over Mr Davis by 37% to 30% and most Tory voters think Mr Cameron is more likely to win a General Election.

It is no surprise that a leader in The Times endorses Mr Cameron.  The newspaper compares Mr Davis to IDS and suggests that he is the opponent Gordon Brown would prefer to face.  Mr Cameron, in contrast, is identified as the man most likely to "start a conversation with those sections of the electorate - notably the professional classes or 'ABs' - that have become detached from the Conservatives".  The newspaper is not blind to the risks associated with voting for Mr Cameron: "To choose an inexperienced figure with a somewhat ambiguous agenda is a gamble twice over."  It nonetheless urges Tories "to roll the dice".

ICM pours cold water on Tory parade

David Davis and David Cameron have both been interviewed on Andrew Marr's new Sunday programme this morning (I don't think it's working by the way - bring back Sir David Frost!).  I didn't learn much from Andrew Marr's frenetic, slightly breathless interviewing style.  Marr's enthusiasm was great for three minutes on BBC1's Six'o'clock news but not for a full hour on a sleepy Sunday morning.   

David Davis defended his tax-cutting plans and David Cameron wheeled out his "sharing the proceeds of growth" soundbite.  It was all pretty predictable.  Mr Cameron did look more comfortable than Mr Davis, however.  The frontrunner's nervousness of Thursday night was not in evidence.

Mr Davis said that Blairism was a declining product - soon to be obsolete - and the Conservative party shouldn't opt for a me-too product.  David Cameron, who appeared after Mr Davis, said that he would not make policies for newspaper headlines.  He referred directly to Mr Blair's cashpoint-fines-for-yobs debacle but you were left with the impression that Mr Davis' £1,200 tax cut pledge was also on his mind.  Mr Cameron said that another core vote/ right-wing agenda would be bad for the Conservative Party.  Keep playing the same tune, he said, and you'll keep getting the same result.  Asked if Mr Davis was playing that tune, Mr Cameron said it sounded like he was.  David Davis had earlier rejected the charge and promised a speech on social justice for tomorrow night - a speech that would unpack his conservatism for the bottom 25% of Britons.

Sarah Sands - new editor of the new-look Sunday Telegraph - was also on the programme.  She said that the leadership contest had been good for the Conservative Party.  But an ICM poll in her paper reminds us all that the party would still trail Gordon Brown badly - whichever of the two Davids prevails.  David Davis would trail Gordon Brown by 8% (41% to 33%) and David Cameron by 7% (41% to 34%).

'Debate-winner' Davis closes gap on David Cameron

A YouGov poll for today's Telegraph shows that David Davis' Question Time performance has helped to cut David Cameron's lead by 18%.  Mr Cameron still enjoys a commanding lead, however.

68% of Tories support him as the next leader - a 36% lead over David Davis on 32%.  Ten days ago 77% had been supporting Mr Cameron and only 23% Mr Davis.

Following the QT debate 27% of party members said that they were more inclined to vote for Mr Davis - only 2% were more inclined to vote for Mr Cameron.   

YouGov's full survey results can be read here.

The volatility of the race - and of the candidates' performances - is one of the reasons why today's Telegraph encourages party members to wait and watch a little longer before casting their votes.

Another YouGov survey boosts David Cameron

"According to YouGov's latest survey for The Daily Telegraph, four times as many voters think David Cameron would boost the Tories' chances of winning the next election as think the same of David Davis... Conservative voters are, if anything, even more emphatic in their pro-Cameron views than the electorate as a whole. No fewer than 62 per cent of Tory supporters think he would do more than Mr Davis to boost the Tories' chances of winning in 2009 or 2010. A mere 13 per cent of Conservatives voters see Mr Davis as a potential election-winner."

That's the conclusion of the latest YouGov poll in today's Telegraph.  One week after the MPs  put David Davis and David Cameron to the grassroots membership there is no sign that the transformation in the race - engendered by the two men's very different Blackpool performances - has even begun to be undone.  David Cameron is still on course to be the next Tory leader and to beat David Davis by a long distance.  The photo above of a smiling David Cameron and fluttering Union Flag (from this morning's Telegraph) seems to capture the continuing supremacy of Mr Cameron in this leadership race.

The poll was taken before yesterday's tax announcements by David Davis could have impacted opinion.  Nonetheless Mr Cameron's lead is so large that it is very difficult to see it being overturned.  Mr Davis uses an interview in today's Telegraph to say that reversing Gordon Brown's pensions tax will be a priority for him.

Cameron is overwhelming first choice of party members

A YouGov survey of 665 Conservative Party members for today's Telegraph (analysed on UK Polling Report) provides a massive boost to David Cameron's leadership campaign (and some support for Dr Fox's claim to be the best-placed opponent of the Shadow Education Secretary).  59% told YouGov that David Cameron was their first choice; 18% said Liam Fox; and 15% named David Davis.  The 59% support level given to David Cameron by YouGov's scientific poll compares to his 58% rating within this website's own unscientific online poll (at the time of posting when 797 people had voted).  The difference between conservativehome.com's poll and YouGov is the big lead given to Liam Fox (31%) over David Davis (10%). 

YouGov also asked how members would vote in various run-off scenarios:

• David Cameron would enjoy a 50% lead over David Davis in a showdown between the two men (72% over 22%).
• Mr Cameron's lead would be 40% if he had to face Dr Fox (67% over 27%).
• In a highly unlikely Fox versus Davis contest, Dr Fox leads by 48% to 39%.

Also revealed by the YouGov poll is an even divide amongst members on strategic direction:

• 45% said that 'The Conservatives should move towards the political centre with more moderate 'one nation' policies'.
• 48% said that 'The Conservatives should remain firmly on the Right of politics and put clear blue water between them and the Labour Party'.

[The questioners at YouGov obviously haven't heard of the And Theory Of Conservatism and the way that progressive, compassionate policies can be blended with core policies on Europe, tax and crime].