toryleadership

If you want to stay informed - avoid the campaign websites

Charles Moore begins his article of today - endorsing David Cameron - with this paragraph:

"Call me new-fashioned, but I was disappointed when I logged on to the websites of David Davis and David Cameron at 9am yesterday to find that neither had yet posted anything about the BBC debate between the two candidates the night before. Shouldn't each David have been claiming victory, looking for momentum, calling for further debates? It was a bit 20th century to have to wait for the newspapers to get the reaction."

Someone needs to tell Mr Moore about this blog!  The 21st century bloggers produced 2,164 hits on this site from 10.35pm on Thursday until 2am on Friday morning.  We haven't quite rivalled QT's 2.5m viewers but you have to start somewhere.

Mr Moore is right, however, to note the inadequacy of the campaign websites.  DC's website (although the most attractive and comprehensive of all the sites) still doesn't mention the debate - it has gone as quiet as DD's campaign blog went during the Blackpool conference.  A six day silence on the DD campaign blog was then blamed on technical difficulties.

If Charles Moore was to visit DD's revamped site today he would discover that the site now offers a lot of stuff about QT (see here (plus here and here and here and here and here on the campaign blog)).

Go to Liam Fox's site and you wouldn't know that the great doctor had been eliminated from the race.   Chris Grayling's talking head (hero of last week's De-Blunketting) is still there making the case for Liam.  Ken Clarke's site does acknowledge that their man has lost.  In the right-hand margin this appears:

"Thank you for your support over the last few months.  The website will remain up and running until mid-November should you wish to access any information."

Peter Oborne still appears at the top of the site, however, arguing that Ken Clarke's candidacy has "collapsed his rivals".  Not quite, Peter!

For those still wanting to vote for Mr Clarke there's a campaign to write him onto the ballot paper.  For those unsure who to support you might like to visit the Who Should You Vote For? site.  I thought the questions it asked were too narrow to be useful but it's harmless fun.

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Fox with-holds endorsement... for now

Liam Fox has just offered some gracious remarks outside of Parliament.

He said that either David Cameron or David Davis would make excellent leaders of the Conservative Party.

He promised to endorse the candidate who delivered a prosperity agenda, stood up for Britain's interests in Europe and offered a compassionate agenda at home.

Fox: My forthcoming marriage will end rumours of gay past

"GAY SMEARS AND ME, BY TORY HOPEFUL"

That's the front page headline in today's Evening Standard.  For many years Dr Fox, 44 and now engaged to Dr Jesme Baird, has been subject to rumours that he has had a gay past and that he has been a promiscuous heterosexual.  Interviewed for today's Standard Dr Fox refuses to discuss his past:

"If someone accused me of doing something against the law I might feel bound to answer it.  Otherwise I would have no comment to make.  If you start getting into that, all sorts of areas open up and I think you are entitled to a private life."

Dr Fox continued:

"I know that some people use smears and I have heard them for many years.  They say, 'Why are you not married?'  You must be a playboy or a wild man or gay', or whatever.  Well I'm getting married in December and I'm perfectly happy with my private life and it remains my private life.  It's perfectly clear that Jesme and I are very much in love with each other.  I'm not going into that smear territory."

It's not clear how this will play for Dr Fox ahead of today's parliamentary vote.  On the face of it, the story will slow any momentum he had.  Elsewhere in The Standard an unnamed Fox aide is quoted as saying that they have not done enough to overtake Mr Davis.   I have had that confirmed to me.  There is also unhappiness, however, in the Commons Tea Room at the behaviour of two Davis supporters who have been 'promoting' the Evening Standard story to colleagues.

WARNING: I WILL BAN ANYONE WHO USES THE THREAD BELOW TO MAKE UNSUBSTANTIATED ALLEGATIONS.  I HAVE BANNED TWO IP ADDRESSES ALREADY TODAY.  ONE FOR POSTING SOMETHING FALSE AND ANOTHER FOR HATEFUL ANTI-GAY REMARKS.  I WON'T HESITATE TO DO SO AGAIN.

Can Fox beat Davis?

"Prepare for a truly brutal battle between Fox and Davis for the precious votes of the Right that will make the difference between a place on the final ballot paper, and an early bath tomorrow afternoon. Dr Fox has the momentum, Mr Davis has the guile."

That's the prediction of Matthew d'Ancona in today's Telegraph.  Whether Fox can hunt down Mr Davis is the most important question over the next 48 hours.

Here are the factors at play:

Was Fox's vote inflated by Eurosceptic tactical voting?  Fox, with 42 votes, received 19 more votes than he had received public declarations.   The Davis campaign is suggesting that tactical voting boosted Dr Fox's vote.  They believe that otherwise undecided Eurosceptics voted for Dr Fox to dump Ken Clarke from the contest.  That belief received some backing when David Healthcoat-Amory admitted to voting for Dr Fox for the sole reason of eliminating the once enthusiastic advocate of the euro and EU constitution.  Did many others do the same?  Such eurosceptics are not going to be attracted to the Davis camp, however, by its suggestion (reported on this morning's Today programme) that DD is the least eurosceptic of the candidates.  This claim is apparently based on DD's refusal to match the other two candidates' pledge (which a DD team member described as "totemic") to take the Tory Party's MEPs out of the federalist EPP.  A core of LF's vote was the Cornerstone Group - safely delivered by John Hayes MP.  They aren't going to desert Dr Fox now.

Who can win most of Ken Clarke's supporters?  My guess is that David Cameron will pick up three-quarters (maybe more) of Clarke's backers.  Ken Clarke's leading supporter - Sir Malcolm Rifkind - has already declared for the 39-year-old education spokesman.  Ken Clarke will almost certainly vote for Mr Cameron and may even declare for him later today.  DD's 'We're the least Eurosceptic' message seems designed to win over a few Clarke backers but is it credible?  Europhile and DD-backer Ian Taylor will be the DD campaign's frontman in the pitch to KC's backers.  The Guardian suggests that the Fox team will deploy the moderate Gary Streeter in its bid to pick up a few Clarke votes.  Mr Streeter is on excellent terms with people like Alistair Burt and David Curry but it will be a tall order for him to attract KC voters to LF's vividly eurosceptic colours.  Senior Fox campaign manager Oliver Heald (a Clarke supporter in 2001) has organised for a number of Clarke supporters to meet Dr Fox today.

Can Liam Fox attract defectors from David Davis?  This will be the doctor's most fertile territory.  Many DD supporters are complaining that their choice appears exhausted and unable to restart his campaign after the Blackpool setbacks.  Adam Holloway has already jumped ship - telling DD on Monday night that he wouldn't be able to back him (although I think he switched to Cameron, not Fox).  At least three other DD supporters either supported other candidates for substantial or tactical reasons in yesterday's ballot.  According to today's Guardian Chris Grayling MP, of the Fox campaign, has said that "the opportunity has now arisen for us to become the champions of the right."

Will DD's careerist backers switch to DC?  Some of DD's early backers probably supported him for reasons more to do with their career prospects than because they had decided Mr Davis was the right man to lead the Conservative Party.  A few MPs might join the Cameron bandwagon in order to improve their chances of becoming Shadow Minister for Administrative Affairs in the Cameron era. 

Who do the grassroots want?  The unscientific poll on this site suggests that the party in the country might prefer a Fox-Cameron showdown to a Davis-Cameron contest.  If MPs are listening to their association members they might be encouraged to switch to Dr Fox.  A better indication of grassroots opinion will come tomorrow when a YouGov survey of Tory members is published by The Telegraph.  Owen Paterson MP, a Fox supporter, is already talking up this factor: " I don't know how Davis can win in the country. There is momentum in the Davis camp, but it is all going in the wrong direction. A Fox-Cameron battle would be really good for the party in the country."

Will DC supporters vote tactically for Fox or Davis?  This is the biggest unknown factor.   DC may get close to 100 votes tomorrow.  He doesn't need all of those votes and some MPs might be 'released' to inflate the vote of the candidate  that they think would be easier to beat in the run-off.  The trouble with that tactic is that the DC camp aren't sure who that easier-to-beat candidate might be.

My prediction is that David Davis will scrape through.  He will progress to the final round as a wounded candidate and one who has failed to find any strong response to the Cameron Phenomenon.   Without something dramatic it is very difficult to see how David Cameron could be beaten.  If Fox fails to progress (which would disappoint me for the reasons stated yesterday) I predict that he will endorse David Cameron.  There are poor personal relations between Dr Fox and Mr Davis.

Make your own predictions for tomorrow's second round by clicking here.

The Mail and Sun keep their options open

Of all Britain's newspapers The Sun is arguably the most Eurosceptic and hawkish on Iraq.  It probably explains today's leader which argues that electing Ken Clarke would be a "disaster".  The Sun is undecided between the other candidates, however.  That indecision is echoed in The Daily Mail which also offers a 'on the one hand and on the other hand' editorial (although it remains open to a Clarke leadership).  Here is what the two newspapers say about the three candidates acceptable to Mr Murdoch's redtop:

David Cameron is, for The Sun, "the new golden boy and could provide the breakthrough the Tories need, but has he got depth to match the gloss?"  The Mail notes that Mr Cameron has gone from an unknown to favourite because of the "almost surreal X-Factor volatility of modern British public sentiment".  It notes that Mr Cameron's "real world credentials are limited to being communications director of Carlton TV during the years its share price halved and to his directorship of a company running late-night clubs".  And yet, notes The Mail, David William Donald Cameron "seems to possess stardust".  Whilst the other candidates may remind people of why they dislike the Tories, David Cameron is viewed as "fresh and attractive".

The Sun notes that David Davis "may be a duller character but it is his experience and solid policies that have kept him in front all summer.  He has proved he is tough.  But is he voter-friendly enough?"  The Mail warns David Davis' rivals not to underestimate his "ferocious hunger to win".  "As the child of a lone parent," the Mail notes, "raised on a sink estate, his personal credentials for a modern, socially sympathetic Tory philosophy of self-reliance are impeccable - yet he has struggled to find the language or inspiration to articulate his vision."

Liam Fox "has been the surprise package" for The Sun: "An attractive personality and plenty of ideas. But has he got the clout needed to unite and lead the party?"  The Mail pays tribute to Dr Fox for delivering the most wide-ranging contribution to the Blackpool conference but it wonders whether he has sufficient charisma to appeal to the wider electorate.

David Davis must win 66 votes today

At about 5.20pm today we'll know which of the three leadership candidates have survived the first round of parliamentary voting.  The list of public declarations suggests that Davids Cameron and Davis will both graduate to round two.  The vote for Mr Davis must at least match his 66 public declarations or his campaign will be seen to be in retreat.  Mr Cameron will look to win around a quarter of the undeclared group of MPs and hope, therefore, to reap more than 50 votes in total.  Late last night two new MPs - Robert Wilson, the MP for Reading East and Philip Dunne, the MP for Ludlow - declared for Mr Cameron.  Mr Wilson declared for Mr Cameron after yesterday's all-parliamentary-party hustings:

“I have been to all of the hustings and have met all of the candidates.  What came across is that David Cameron is more in tune with the country as it is today than anyone else.  We need to reach beyond our 33 percent core constituency and I believe that David Cameron is the man to do it.  I have also been very impressed by the way he has dealt with the media pressure of the last week.  It has been a test for him and he came through with flying colours.”

[Mr Cameron also wins the backing of the Daily Star this morning - in the last seven days he has also won the support of the FT and Economist.]

The real battle of today is between Fox and Clarke.  Dr Fox has failed to win the public backing of many Cornerstone MPs but Geoffrey Cox (no less than the MP of 'our own James Hellyer') endorsed the good doctor overnight.  My guess is that Dr Fox will beat Ken Clarke today - not least because of tactical voting by a handful of undecided right-wing MPs to prevent a Clarke leadership.  Many of them share the view of today's Sun (a Eurosceptic and hawkish newspaper): "Tory MPs start voting today for their new leader, and for the sake of the country it is vital they get it right.  That means a firm NO to Ken Clarke. He would be a disaster."

'Blairite' Cameron targeted by his rivals

David Cameron did not face any questions about drugs from this afternoon's gathering of all Tory MPs.  Concern seemed to be focused on his ambitions to 'modernise' or 'Blair-ise' the party.  These concerns were, perhaps, encouraged by Saturday's Times story in which one "leading supporter" of the frontrunning Shadow Education Secretary suggested that a modernisation programme under a Cameron leadership could see Tory support drop to 25% (at least temporarily).  MPs Laurence Robertson and John Whittingdale pressed Mr Cameron on what he meant by modernisation.  His answers were apparently quite general other than a commitment to abandon the patients' passport policy proposed at the last election.  Mr Cameron's overall performance was described as "assured".

The remarks of the other contenders also appeared to be directed to Mr Cameron (or at least a caricature of him).  Liam Fox suggested that the Conservatives shouldn't become a simple PR exercise.  Ken Clarke said that it wasn't enough to offer a more competent and better managed Blairism.  David Davis said we "don’t just need an image.  We also need a message."  He went on to say that he wanted to be the antidote to Brown, not the heir to Blair.

Interventions from David Davis and David Willetts in the Evening Standard appeared designed to drive the argument home.  Mr Davis told the Evening Standard that experience was key to the leadership race:

"When historians come to look back at the Blair government, they will see a lot of his mistakes stemmed from inexperience of office.  His handling of the Americans, of Europe, of domestic policy all prove that."

David Willetts suggested that Mr Davis was the genuine moderniser:

"I am backing David Davis because he has got the experience and the authority to lead the Party to change.  When he was party chairman he secured a big increase in the proportion of women candidates.  He delivered modernisation without going on about it.  That may be one reason why he has much wider support across a greater range of opinion than any other candidate."

Can David Cameron be stopped?

I'm beginning to doubt it.  Over the last few days the Westminster village has been alive with gossipy suggestions that today's newspapers would bring damaging revelations about Mr Cameron's past.  The 'raincoats' at the News of the World have uncovered some allegations about George Osborne but nothing that will really unsettle the front-running Cameron campaign.  In any case a BPIX poll for the Mail on Sunday suggests that Tory voters are a forgiving lot (and more forgiving than the wider public).  37% say that Mr Cameron should say if he has used drugs but 54% support his decision to protect his private life.  61% of the same group do not think that Mr Cameron should stand down if he or any of the leadership candidates have taken 'hard drugs'.

Links to articles about the 'Cameron drugs frenzy' are found on conservativehome's homepage.  The newspapers are almost completely addicted to David Cameron's private past - there is almost no examination of his policy views.  It's rare to have such a conclusive illustration of the media's obsession with personality over substance.

There are plenty of other stories in Sunday's newspapers that will encourage Mr Cameron's leadership bid:

• The same MoS BPIX poll shows that he stands the greatest chance of cutting Labour's opinion poll lead (although a survey in the Independent on Sunday suggests a more complicated picture).
• The Sunday Telegraph publishes a very positive profile from Alison Pearson.
• In The Business Fraser Nelson paints a glowing picture of Mr Cameron's skills: "charm without sleaze, compassion without schmaltz".

One way in which the drugs row may have actually helped Mr Cameron is the 'crowding out' effect.  All of the other leadership candidates struggle to win any attention in the Sunday papers.   One article in The Sunday Telegraph notes that Gerald Howard has endorsed Liam Fox (taking his tally to 21).  I would have expected more of the Cornerstone Group to have declared for Dr Fox by now.  The fact that they haven't suggests that they aren't going to - or, more likely, the endorsements will come tomorrow and/or Tuesday when the drugs issue has faded.  The same Telegraph article notes that David Davis is trying to 'prop up' his support on 'the right'.  A promise of tax cuts for married couples with children appears designed to appeal to economic and social conservatives.

A Sunday Times leader hopes that Tory MPs will set up a run-off between Cameron and Davis or Cameron and Fox.  Either of those two possibilities "would give party members the appropriate choice between the modernising centre and the robust right."  Please cast your own vote in conservativehome.com's online survey or win a prize by taking part in our first round prediction competition.

Is David Davis steadying his parliamentary ship?

Dr Fox and David Davis both delivered good performances in front of yesterday's '92 group hustings.

Dr Fox appeared in charge of the subject matters under discussion and one of my spies described him as "witty".  It now appears likely that 12 to 15 of the Cornerstone Group of MPs will declare for him.  With those supporters Dr Fox has a realistic chance of beating Mr Clarke into fourth place in next Tuesday's ballot.  Mr Clarke is, today, the fourth of the leadership contenders to make his pitch on the opinion pages of The Telegraph.

My four '92 meeting sources were all agreed that Mr Davis delivered an "assured" performance.  He appeared relaxed and made strong commitments to a more socially-just Conservatism.  He quoted Iain Duncan Smith's contention that Conservatives had to stand on a manifesto that wasn't only seen as 'good for me' by voters but also as 'good for my neighbour'.  Tomorrow he will speak about a more inclusive, compassionate conservatism at a meeting in Bradford.

Mr Davis declined to match the commitment made by both Dr Fox and Mr Cameron to exit the EPP.  Mr Davis said that he would leave that decision to the Tory MEPs.  Mr Davis may fear that very strong Eurosceptic messages might upset some of his early backers, such as the Europhile MP, Ian Taylor.

Mr Davis was this morning boosted by the news that James Brokenshire, a new MP, has become a public backer.  Mr Brokenshire is the first MP to publicly declare for Mr Davis since before the Blackpool conference.

But if Mr Davis does get through to the final round - and he told this morning's Today programme that he was confident that he would - he still needs to overhaul his campaign operation.  Yesterday evening I attended the launch event for Lord Ashcroft's new book - 'Dirty politics, Dirty times'.  Five MPs (from different camps) all told me how their Associations had swung decisively towards David Cameron in the last seven days.  The blogger Watlington believes that an inadequate campaign team - rather than poor oratory - is David Davis' main weakness.

DD's campaign 'relieved' at calm weekend

There are three new declarations from MPs this morning.  Peter Ainsworth has backed David Cameron, David Burrowes has endorsed Dr Fox, and Edward Garnier has joined the Clarke fold.  It also appears that Mark Prisk, a whip, will back Mr Davis but whips are not permitted to formally declare.  conservativehome.com's full list of public declarations can be seen here.   The Telegraph has also surveyed 64 undeclared MPs and offers us this insight into their likely voting intentions.  The Telegraph survey suggests that Clarke, Davis and Rifkind only have a handful of extra supporters within the 'undeclared pool'.  At this stage, David Cameron and (particularly) Liam Fox each appear likeliest to gain the most substantial portions of this 64.

The Davis camp are understood to be relieved that their parliamentary vote remains firm after last week's difficult days and Mr Davis will attempt to further consolidate that support with a 'relaunch' of his campaign this week.  The Cameron Camp had claimed a 'defection' from Mr Davis in Peter Viggers.  Mr Viggers had supported Mr Davis' 2001 leadership bid but had been unaligned until Saturday.  None of Mr Davis' 65 public backers for this contest (as listed on this site) have publicly deserted his colours.

Speaking last night on Radio 4's Westminster Hour Damian Green made a strong defence of David Davis' claim to be the best person to lead the Conservative Party.   He suggested that it would be "foolish" and "frivolous" to decide the next leader on speaking abilities.  Mr Green quoted William Hague's warning that candidates' speaking abilities shouldn't count for too much when it comes to choosing the next leader.  Mr Hague, widely regarded as the party's finest orator, has noted that his speaking abilities didn't do him much good!

In defence of Mr Davis, Mr Green highlighted three factors:

• Mr Davis can rise to the occasion as he did with his response to the London bombings.   Mr Green noted how many colleagues had described that response as 'Prime Ministerial'.  Mr Davis may have to respond to another statement on terror this afternoon (with today's return of the Commons) when Home Office Questions is also scheduled.
• No other candidate has provided more substance on how he will 'change Britain'.  Mr Green is probably thinking of speeches on public service reform and social renewal.  On foreign policy Mr Davis recently gave a comprehensive speech at Chatham House.
• Mr Davis' belief in using right-wing policies - like lower taxation and education vouchers - to deliver social justice and social progress.  This 'right-wing policies for left-wing aims' was Mr Green's original justification for backing Mr Davis.

Mr Green concluded his interview by saying that he thought the race was still wide open.  The fact that 44% of party members (as polled by YouGov) had changed their mind last week alone illustrated the volatility of the electorate.  Nonetheless, he was confident that Mr Davis had the "toughness under pressure" to prevail in this race.

[Jonathan Sheppard has used the 'Your Platform' blog to explain why he is supporting David Davis].