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« Question 8: in today's Britain do you think drug-taking is part of an ordinary university experience? | Main | Editorial: A solid win for David Davis »

Comments

Its interesting that the question is posed in the present tense "is winning" instead of asking the vital question which would require the substitution "is going to win". Even though I'm a Davis fan I still voted Cameron because for the moment that is how it looks.
All that this poll suggests to me is that 30% of Davis fans are not as pedantic as I am.

You know, the usual photo opportunuties, Cameron on his to the newsagents, Cameron on his way back from his paper round, Cameron getting on his bike in his Barber Jacket, Camerom with his wife pushing his son in a pram, but the best of all was Cameron looking for his car on his way to work because he'd forgotten where he'd left it the night before.

Matthew Page

Yougov Poll in Tomorrows Daily Telegraph

Voting Intentions of Tory Members:

Cameron 68%
Davis 32%

James Hellyer

What's that? 7% gain for Davis?

Matthew Page

I think its a 9% swing.

pigmalion

Surprising how volatile these polls seem to be considering that nothing special has happened over the last ten days to warrant such a big swing. This swing could be just a dead cat bounce rather than Davis wining the QT debate. If so then the Cameronites should begin to worry because a dead cat bounce is usually an exponential trend, which means that we could expect a 4.5 swing in the next 10 days and 2.25 in the next and 1.125 in the next 10, which means that a month from now the polls could easilly read 60% to Cameron and 40% to Davis. Still a clear lead, but a little gaff here and a little gaff there and that lead could disappear.

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