"Around half of the 253,689 eligible party members are now estimated to have voted in the leadership contest, even though the deadline is Dec 5. Party sources said, however, that as only 79 per cent voted in the last full membership ballot in 2001, effectively 60 per cent of votes had probably been cast."
My own information is very slightly different from that of The Telegraph - from which the above quotation comes. I understand that only a little over 40% of members have voted. Nonetheless. if those who have already voted have voted in line with last week's YouGov poll we can expect David Cameron to be enjoying a 2-1 lead. All of those yet to vote will have to vote in at least that proportion for David Davis to have a chance of winning this contest - a scenario that now seems very unlikely.
David Davis has one best, last chance to produce something dramatic tomorrow lunchtime when he goes head-to-head with David Cameron on ITV1's Jonathan Dimbleby programme. The programme goes out at 12.35pm tomorrow (Sunday). I'll blog the debate immediately afterwards.
If you haven't entered the run-off stage prediction competition it's not too late to do so. Click below to vote in ConservativeHome's own leadership ballot...
"To those twats above -- who seek to undermine and smear me..."
I have to say I'm rather disappointed that somebody that would choose to use such offensive language in a public forum and make paranoid rants of the like seen above is deemed suitable to be Chairman of a Conservative Association, particularly in an area like Tottenham. Perhaps it is Justin Hinchcliffe that should be referred to the Ethics Committee for bringing the party into disrepute?
Posted by: Daniel Vince-Archer | 20 November 2005 at 16:36
What I am really surprised about this website is the number of people, presumably backing David Davis?, who are so anti-Cameron. Daniel Vince-Archer, above, even has a blog to attack DC! Now, barring some sort of major upset, David Cameron WILL be our Leader. If these people really hate him and his style of politics, will they remain in the Party? I think that they should do the honorable thing and resign their membership and join, perhaps, UKIP.
Posted by: Justin Hinchcliffe | 21 November 2005 at 07:41
Oh, and perhaps people who attack me can set out in grate detail what exactly THEY do for the Conservative Party? I am not wanting to sound pompous and arrogant, but if it were not for me the Conservative Party really would be on its knees in Tottenham; I have doubled its membership to 150, fielded candidates in EVERY ward for the first time since 1986, won the "Apter" award for best Conservative website in the country and enjoy a good coverage in the local media (despite having no cllrs). In addition, I have set up teams who are focused on winning May's council elections.Anyone wanting to match these achievements?
Posted by: Justin Hinchcliffe | 21 November 2005 at 07:49
Today's Times backs my understandings on turnout:
"The Times has learnt that only 44 per cent of the 260,000 eligible voters have sent back their ballot papers. In the last leadership contest more than half returned their ballot paper as soon as they received it. Turnout is also expected to be higher than the 79 per cent who voted in the 2001 contest, which took place in the quieter months of August and September. The result will be announced on December 6."
Posted by: Editor | 21 November 2005 at 08:35
So Tim its still all to play for. Did you get round to saying who you thought was the best candidate based on the 12 questions or not?
Posted by: Peter | 21 November 2005 at 10:20
When 60% of the Parliamentary Party supports Cameron - it would be political madness for the members to reject him.
We need to give David Cameron a mandate which will show our political opponents that we are united and to the electorate that we have an agreed sense of direction.
By the way, I would say this if it had been Davis with 60% MP support and would have voted for him.
Posted by: michael | 21 November 2005 at 10:34
"If these people really hate him and his style of politics, will they remain in the Party? I think that they should do the honorable thing and resign their membership and join, perhaps, UKIP."
You can't help but admire the good grace and consensual style of David Cameron's supporters.
Posted by: James Hellyer | 21 November 2005 at 10:39
"By the way, I would say this if it had been Davis with 60% MP support and would have voted for him."
You should vote for the candidate you want to win, not the candidate other people want to win. Otherwise we have no party democracy at all.
Posted by: James Hellyer | 21 November 2005 at 10:41
James, that's a valid point for those who have a claer preference. For those who are finding it difficult to decide - I think the fact one candidate has almost 60% of MP support should be the deciding factor.
Posted by: michael | 21 November 2005 at 10:52
Sorry Michael but I think anyone who supports "follow the herd" is not taking politics serious enough.
But then you are supporting someone who is going to be sitting on his hands for the next two years, at least I surpose it make the commons more quiet?
Posted by: Peter | 22 November 2005 at 10:55