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« Daily Mail: "Cameron backtracks on drugs downgrade" | Main | Heffer versus Cameron (a continuing series) »


James Hellyer

Is it true that David Cameron is refusing to be interviewed by Paxman this week? If it is true, then it's a worrying sign that Cameron knows his performance just won't be good enough.

Selsdon Man

Where did you get that from, James? I hope that it is not disinformation from DD supporters.

By the way, I found the "couldn't run a bath" line ironic - Messrs Dale, Conway and Mitchell must have been squirming, especially after the appointment of Nick Wood who has sorted a lot of the mess out.

Guido Fawkes

Davis still has only half the support of Cameron. Lets look deeper into the numbers.

Cameron is perceived as a far better leader, greater challenge to Blair or Brown, better Tory PM, better on TV and a greater boost to the Tory's chance of winning the next election.

59% say Cameron would offer the Tories a fresh start. 51% of those surveyed said Basher had no style, only 19% thought he looked like a potential prime minister. Overwhelmingly Cameron is seen as a bold man (43%) of the future (67%) with self confidence (45%).

For a look into the numbers see here.

Selsdon Man

Thought that you would be too busy plotting today, Guido.

James Hellyer

"Where did you get that from, James?"

The Daily Cameron... er, Telegaph.

James Hellyer

"Cameron is perceived"

A perception he clearly doesn't want challenged by being ripped apart by Paxman. I guess that if he does become leader, Cameron will break with tradition and not demand a television leaders' debate at the next general election!

Selsdon Man

"The Daily Cameron... er, Telegaph". That's a bit unfair on Mr Heffer!

Wat Tyler

Yes- that, wimp-out, is reported on page 9 of the DT print edition, but doesn't seem to have made it onto the DT website.

James Hellyer

Mr Heffer and the (strongly anti-Cameron)lettters page are the only voices of reason left in that paper! It's like The Times run mad.

Guido Fawkes

Selsdon, see the blog, just reminding you lost protestants how close we of the one true faith are to victory. Your future monarch bows before the papacy, your prime minister is a crypto-Catholic who has wisely brought his progeny up under the guidance and blessing of Rome. We control the ministry of the education of your nations children via Opus Dei. Your laws are subject to the rule of Rome under a treaty signed by Edward Heath.

Give me another 400 years and Britain will be part of the holy Roman empire again.

Ad Majorem Dei Gloriam,

Now where did I leave that barrel...

Selsdon Man

"Yes- that, wimp-out, is reported on page 9 of the DT print edition, but doesn't seem to have made it onto the DT website."

Thank you, Wat. I could not find it online

Mike Smithson

Oh Yes - Happy 400th Guido

Selsdon Man

Guido, I take it you were a Fox/Cornerstone supporter then. One MP listed as a Cornerstone member actually referred to it as the Papist Group.

Guido Fawkes

I urged Edward Leigh to run of course!

Alas he did not and we missed out on a lot of fun.

Selsdon Man

Fun, Guido? That is not the word that I would use.

Sally Rideout Baker

David Davis won the debate?

It's called tactics. Plants among the audience.

His friend Jonathan Aitkin’s son telling Cameron that “he could not run a bath”.

Not exactly a question was it?

No wonder Davis looked confident. It was supposed to a debate.

Cameron won the debate.

Davis won the fooled.


What I found interesting from the poll is that allowing for margins of error more people than just DC supporters thought he'd improve the party's chances of winning the next election and only around 2/3 of DDs supporters thought that DD would.
On this 5th November I'm pleased to see that DDs supporters are willing to wait for as long as it takes for the reconversion of England to the true faith, just like us Catholics :-)

Alex W

Having backed Clarke and unconvincingly swung behind Cameron after the big beast's departure, I'm now back on the fence. I watched the debate with a group of friends of assorted political beliefs, and we all pretty much concluded that Cameron fared poorly. It is a serious concern. It is quite one thing to perform well in a pre-rehearsed speech and another to do well on the hoof, and I think that it is Cameron's lack of experience showing. The question for the Cameroonies is this: can Cameron learn quickly enough before irreparable damage is dealt to him by one of the greatest political operators* of our time, Blair? My concern is that Cameron has the best potential, but whether it is unfulfilled to date and we would be better off holding him back for a while rather than wasting him too early is a very serious question indeed.

* Political operator, not politician. My contempt for Blairism is not publishable on a publicly accessible website :p

Jack Stone

It seems to me that members need to think very carefully before they vote for Davis.
The political damage that will be done to the party if the candiadate who as barely a third of the parliamentary party supporting him is elected over the candiadate who as over half the party supporting him will be enormous.Davis would simply not stand a chance and would be a lame duck leader from day one.

henry curteis

Jack I wouldn't worry too much about MP's stated preferences. In fact some of them have been laughable - declaring for first one and then once that one's eliminated trying another and so on. Basically the winner will be supported by them all near enough whoever it is as all the patronage flows from the top.

What amtters is that MP's and the Party represent the voters - and if it's all manipulated by the media, people will feel completely alienated. The members are entitled to choose their leader. The more democratic the process the better.

If this part of the leadership battle was not open to the membership, I wonder if DD would be offering referenda on EU powers for example. Democracy is the only way to bust open the stranglehold of the 'elite'. The swing to Davis has started. People are beginning to realise that Cameron is just another piece of media fluff.

John Coulson

I think we saw statesman Davis on July 7th, we know he can do it. He has taken on Prescott, Blunkett, Clarke and Cook (when Cook was Shadow For Sec) and actually come out of these scenarios with his reputation enhanced. Cameron can only point to that overrated (and come on it was) conference speech. I don't think that is a contest. It is DD all the way.

Tom Ainsworth

"Basically the winner will be supported by them all near enough whoever it is as all the patronage flows from the top."

Hmm... Just like all the previous leaders enjoyed near total support?


If you analyse all of the data in the YOUGOV Poll it makes iy preatty clear why Dave doesn't want to appear on Newsnignt.

a) Only 57% of the respondents actually watched the program
b) of those 26% shifted from Dave to David whereas only 2% shifted the otherway.

CONCLUSION: The QT debate has done MUCH more harm that this poll shows.

I'll do all the calculations and come back to you on what the poll REALLY says. Trust me I've got a PHD in Mathematics.


So pigmalion

- you assume that of that 57%, 26% of them (=15% ) moved to DD, and only 2% of the 57% moved to DC (=1%). Therefore if after QT of that 57% we get 65/35 split then before QT we must assume it was a 79/21 split.
Allowing for sampling error that looks close to the previous YouGov figures (77/23)

So how is it worse.?

Previous YouGov polls had a much higher number of don;t knows - more of these seem to have gone to DD (unless we had undecideds going to DC and ex DC supporters going to DD!) Its difficult to work out the impact of QT versus undecideds deciding (perhaps as result of QT).

Statistics, statistics....


OK here it is! But given that there is insuficient data all that you can extrapolate is two worst case scenarios.
If you work from the basis of the "How has the debate changed your mind about who you might vote for?" Poll. Our survey says that there are two possible worst case scenarios.

A) If you take the current 68-32 position then ten days ago the worst case scenario (For Davis would have being)

78% Cameron
7% Davis
15% Undecided

B) If you take the previous 77-23 position of ten days ago the worst case scenario (For Cameron would be)

49% Cameron
36% Davis
15% Undecided

The comments to this entry are closed.

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