Davis leads Cameron by 50% to 37% amongst Tory voters

A new poll for today's Times gives David Davis a surprising lead amongst Conservative Party voters.  Last month David Cameron led David Davis by 45% to 15%.  This month the Populus survey gives David Davis a 50% over 37% advantage.  The poll was taken after Mr Davis' pledges on tax and Europe and his well-received Question Time performance.  The swing to Mr Davis may also reflect Mr Cameron's muddled ecstasy policy.

The poll should be treated cautiously, however.  Populus surveyed Tory voters - not the members who wil actually elect the next Tory leader.  Populus' General Election tracker poll for The Times/ITN also predicted a very big win for Tony Blair just a couple of days before May 5th's contest.  Populus' reputation has never fully recovered since.

The survey also contains some good news for Mr Cameron.  All voters favour Mr Cameron over Mr Davis by 37% to 30% and most Tory voters think Mr Cameron is more likely to win a General Election.

It is no surprise that a leader in The Times endorses Mr Cameron.  The newspaper compares Mr Davis to IDS and suggests that he is the opponent Gordon Brown would prefer to face.  Mr Cameron, in contrast, is identified as the man most likely to "start a conversation with those sections of the electorate - notably the professional classes or 'ABs' - that have become detached from the Conservatives".  The newspaper is not blind to the risks associated with voting for Mr Cameron: "To choose an inexperienced figure with a somewhat ambiguous agenda is a gamble twice over."  It nonetheless urges Tories "to roll the dice".

Comments

[James Turner]

All,
Sorry to interrupt but has anyone seen a link to a group of senior Tory London local government leaders backing Cameron (probably yesterday)?

I'm not really sure that a great deal can be read into these polls generally - the ones that gave heavy backing to DC were just as unreliable.

[michael]

Barbara Villiers...the presonification of the Conservative Party's brand problem. Nasty and patronising in equal measures.

Well done Gareth.

[Mark Fulford]

Barbara, even now you can't put a definition to the word. Act your age - confess and move on!

[Sean Fear]

Michael, that description could be applied to at least one of Barbara's critics (not you, I hasten to add).

[Yet another Anon]

>>>>No Barbara, but you do fit the core conservative sterotype, which unfortunately for a Prty that wants to form the next Government, constitues only 33% of the electorate.<<<<
32.3% of those turning out to vote, more in percentage of the popular vote than in 2001 and 1997 but in terms of total votes considerably less than in 1997 and the improvement in 2001 may just have been down to an improvement in turnout, the Conservatives got 10 million votes in 1997 and only 8.5 million in 2001 and 8.75 million in 2005 - how those not voting might have voted if they had turned out is largely speculation.

Of course if Labour's vote continues to collapse it may be that 8.75 million votes is enough for the Conservatives to return to government with.

[Barbara Villiers]

Oh dear, not only waspish but humourless too. If you could not see the humour in my comments than you are more up your own posteriors than I thought! Boring and silly.

[michael]

You're right Anon. But I do class those who didn't vote as not wanting to vote for us.

I hate the thought of winning seats on the basis of Labour getting fewer votes.

[a-tracy]

To read why more women don't blog on political blogs I think you only have to glance through this thread. When I'm not at work and after putting the children to bed tonight I'll spend more time to digest some of the comments that have caused this vitriol against Barbara. Don't let them deter you Barbara I'm interested in what you have to say.

Michael I'm surprised at you.

As for metrosexual Mark a quick glance at google recommends a definition at www.salon.com where David Beckham is given as the biggest example of metrosexual in Britain basically a metrosexual is a Young man with money to spend, living near or within easy reach of a metropolis for the best shops, gym, clubs and hairdressers. His sexuality is immaterial because he loves himself.

[michael]

Sorry a-tracy! I felt the need to stick up for Gareth.

[Gareth]

"As for metrosexual Mark a quick glance at google recommends a definition at www.salon.com where David Beckham is given as the biggest example of metrosexual in Britain basically a metrosexual is a Young man with money to spend, living near or within easy reach of a metropolis for the best shops, gym, clubs and hairdressers. His sexuality is immaterial because he loves himself."

Erm, yes, a-tracy, I think we knew that.
The point was, what, in the name of heaven, has that got to do with the context in which Barbara used the term, when she wrote,

"Of course our policies must meet the needs of those in our society but this means a cross section of our society, not just the metrosexuals"

Was DC offering tax-relief on men's facials? Or, gym use?

Or, could it be that Barbara's use of 'metrosexual' in an apparently pejorative sense, reveals something about her own views she has been curiously reticent about sharing with us?

I'm delighted you found Barabara's CV so fascinating though. It's a shame she was so unwilling to engage in a debate, it might have been illuminating.

[michael]

But a-tracy do read the full thread - you will find the way Barbara patronises and sneers at people pretty awful.

You speak from your life experience to add to debate. Barabara has used it to patronise people who were making valid points.

The line, 'my best friends are gay' or yesterday's corker, 'you can't have children' are the sort of comments which doesn't help sensible discussion or encourage respect.

[michael]

"Or, could it be that Barbara's use of 'metrosexual' in an apparently pejorative sense, reveals something about her own views she has been curiously reticent about sharing with us?"

Yes Gareth, that's what I was hinting at. As with, "I abhor political correctness".

I prefer debate to open, honest and respectful. There's one thing worse than prejudice, and it's thinly veiled prejudice.

[Mark Fulford]

a-tracy, I'm feeling very hard-done by!

Graham and I have replied to Barbara with more logic, equal humour, and somewhat less rudeness than Barbara’s replies to each of us. How come you're wading into us?

[Daniel Vince-Archer]

"To read why more women don't blog on political blogs I think you only have to glance through this thread. When I'm not at work and after putting the children to bed tonight I'll spend more time to digest some of the comments that have caused this vitriol against Barbara. Don't let them deter you Barbara I'm interested in what you have to say."

Well said A-Tracy. Guess which candidate the people who have been laying into Barbara are supporting? (Hint: it's not the 'nasty smear merchant' David Davis.) And people have the cheek to call Davis and his supporters intolerant!

[Mark Fulford]

Daniel, you haven't actually read this thread, have you?

[Ted]

a-tracy - I've enjoyed my sparring with Barbara; it wouldn't be any fun if we were all Cameroons on this blog and if either side couldn't take the odd swipe, and take it with some good humour. We could do with perhaps being less 100% for or against the Ds.

I'd like to understand more on the sex basis of your arguement - don't think James or Daniel on the DD side are treated any less harshly than B and as for the disgraceful attacks on we poor cowering Cameroons.... Is it the tone of the arguements or what that you think puts women off (I thought it was more likely that more of us guys needed a life!)

[a-tracy]

Mark - I'm just reading through this thread now, have you, Michael and Gareth brought bad feeling from another thread or is this sort of comment:

"Barbara, You gave me your CV, not an argument. They're really not the same thing you know and whilst it may work at the Women's Institute or on your CWCC committee, it cuts no ice here. Anyway, sorry to distract you from today's 'Femail'. There's a particularly fascinating article on how cannabis use turns you 'metrosexual' I hear ..."

"No Barbara, but you do fit the core conservative sterotype, which unfortunately for a Prty that wants to form the next Government, constitues only 33% of the electorate"

"Barbara Villiers...the presonification of the Conservative Party's brand problem. Nasty and patronising in equal measures"

Act your age (Quaint) - confess and move on!

I've read Barbara's post of 12:31 and Gareth's reply of 12:41! that seems to have caused a lowering of the debate, however, no-one likes the implication of Gareth's blog levelling at them and for her 'CV' as Gareth calls it was a defence of his accusations - perhaps there was past history I don't know but this 'nasty' tag is hard to understand from this thread imho (using one of the new trendy terms I've learnt from listening to the people on this blog).

How does Barbara getting the impression that Gareth is like the David Beckham stereotype so upsetting, am I missing something? If you all understood what it meant (which I didn't) why keep asking?

[Daniel Vince-Archer]

"Daniel, you haven't actually read this thread, have you?"

Yes I have. In fact, if you look, you'll see I even contributed to it twice earlier on today. What's your point?

[a-tracy]

sorry Mark I'm typing faster than my brains working tonight, after

Act your age (Quaint) - confess and move on!

I meant to say:

just from Barbara's comments on this thread?

[Mark Fulford]

Which was in direct response to "'A' for effort for you young man! However, like others of your generation you are not quite as literate as you should be..."

I call it good humoured ribbing!

[a-tracy]

Ted "I'd like to understand more on the sex basis of your argument (no 'e') - don't think James or Daniel on the DD side are treated any less harshly than B and as for the disgraceful attacks on we poor cowering Cameroons.... Is it the tone of the arguments or what that you think puts women off (I thought it was more likely that more of us guys needed a life!)

I loved this post Ted and I must admit I have wondered why you young guys aren't out at the gym, 10 pin bowling or dancing the nights away? Honestly there'll come a time when you've a mortgage, three kids that act like walking piggy banks and expensive baby sitters that you're stuck in either watching tv or blogging!! Omigod I hope I haven't pigeon holed you.

It is the tone and the intolerance of some to appreciate another's point of view or way of life that's a little ya boo to coin a Mrs May expression. Not all women (unlike myself) like to scrap - it comes from working in a male dominated environment for many years where we discuss politics all the time, with usually me leading the debates and if my persuasive skills are on form they'll concede to my argument (it's a shame it's not every time but then it wouldn't be as much fun).