Cam on course to be next Tory leader

"A report in a tabloid newspaper this week that Mr Davis was surging ahead among Tory voters finds almost no echo in YouGov's survey of party members."

That paragraph from Anthony King, Professor of Government at Essex University and The Telegraph's polling analyst, is a clear dig at this week's Times/Populus poll which gave David Davis an unexpected 50%-37% lead amongst 122 Tory voters.   Today's Telegraph/YouGov survey of 748 Tory  members is not directly comparable but it suggests that Mr Davis has not built on his post-Question Time swing.  It is notable that Mr Davis' successful defeat of Tony Blair over the 90-day terrorist provisions does not appear to have won him new grassroots supporters.

The Telegraph suggests that Mr Cameron won a 68%-32% lead amongst the third who have voted and has only a slightly smaller lead (66%-34%) amongst those yet to vote.  If these figures are correct David Cameron - 'Cam' - is on course to be elected the next Conservative leader by a wider margin than IDS enjoyed over Ken Clarke.

Mr Cameron's lead appears to reflect his perceived electability - rather than his policies.  By a majority of 64% to 21% those surveyed believe that Mr Cameron will do most to boost the Tories' chances of winning the next election.  One of Mr Cameron's policies has the opposite effect on grassroots Tories with 65% over 19% rejecting his stance on ecstasy.

Comments

[reasonable]

Much as I respect YouGov's polling I do ask the question: in this case, where SO many of the voters (Tory members) are SO old and probably untechnical, can Internet polling really get at the truth? Might it not be that it's a little closer than their poll? I notice that issues such as drugs and EU fishing policy matter much more among the less activist parts of my admittedly non-metro association.

[john Skinner]

I'm sure that Tory members are older than the average voter, but are not typical of the older voter. The fact that they take the trouble to join a political party implies an interest in politics and current affairs. This interest would be indulged through all sorts of media. Local authority courses on computer skills are mostly attended by retired people, who, apart from wanting to keep in touch with their extended families through e-mail, have the time to surf the net.

[Jack Stone]

These polls showing David Cameron with a huge lead don`t surprise me in the slightest.
Members are simply fed up with losing and are backing the candidate who they know as the best chance of leading them back to power.
The members of this party are not stupied. They know that if they elect David Davis all of the time, effort and money they will put into trying to get the party back into power over the next four years will without doubt be wasted and the party will go down to yet another defeat.

[buxtehude]

"if they elect David Davis all of the time, effort and money they will put into trying to get the party back into power over the next four years will without doubt be wasted and the party will go down to yet another defeat"

Let's be realistic - that's a real possibility, with either one. You may have faith, but that's all it is, faith and hope (and charity).

[Kate Castle]

I'm surprised we haven't heard more about the way the Davis campaign appear to have access to members email addresses while the Cameron campaign only email if you sign up (as was the case with Clarke & Fox, I beleive).

[Selsdon Man]

As a party member, I have not received any unsolicited emails from DD's campaign team.

[Kate Castle]

perhaps it is those who signed up to the conservative news updates mailings or something. I've seen others mention it on here before, but in the last two weeks I've begun to think DD is my penpal!

[Yet another Anon]

>>>>It is notable that Mr Davis' successful defeat of Tony Blair over the 90-day terrorist provisions does not appear to have won him new grassroots supporters.<<<<<
This is because the public is rightly mainly in favour of the extension of detention without trial as a means of dealing with terrorist suspects while evidence is being collected and provisions to ensure that matters of National Security remain a secret but where for reasons of National Security the person cannot be allowed to be at large - there should be no compromises when it comes to National Security matters.

There needs to be the removal of any limits on length of internment but with review by a judicial tribunal every 28 days and there should be secret National Security Tribunals to try people who it would be considered too dangerous for National Security reasons to try in Open Court or for any member of the General Public to see evidence involved as a juror. Options available for punishment for the convicted (which should be based on a mandatory points system) should include torture and execution to make the wicked suffer.

[Wat Tyler]

Hope. Not policy or proven experience, but hope.

As Anthony King comments on the YouGov results: 'Few rank-and-file Tories seem overly impressed by Mr Cameron. Many of them see him as inexperienced and a lightweight, a man with style but not much substance. However... nearly two thirds of Conservative Party members, 64 per cent, believe that, of the two men, Mr Cameron "would do more to boost the Conservative Party's chances of winning the next general election". A mere 21 per cent think that Mr Davis would prove the more effective vote-winner.'

As you will all realise, what party members are doing here is exactly the same as JM Keynes' spectacularly non-PC remark about investing: "Speculation is like being a judge in a beauty contest where the objective is not to pick the prettiest girl, but the girl the other judges pick."

We are attempting to pick a leader who appeals not so much to us- with all our Tory convictions- but to other judges out there in the broader electorate.

It's a notoriously tricky business, and the problem is, this ain't no beauty contest.

Our winner will have to do more than parade up and down the catwalk wiggling his bum and doing a few twirls.

But the way things look right now, it seems we're going to find out if the Keynes approach works.

[Cllr Iain Lindley]

I receive DD e-mails to several of my e-mail addresses. They are the same e-mail addresses that are targeted by the Oulds/Kelly spam database, however this may be a coincidence.

[Deckchair of despair]

On emails from the DD camp: it's nothing to do with being a party member, because I'm not one at the moment, but I'm now getting regular emails from them. It must be something to do with visiting his website. Perhaps I said I would like news updates - I can't remember.

[Editor]

I'll email the Davis camp now and ask how they have compiled their email lists...

[Adrian Owens]

Editor

When speaking to the Davis camp you may also want to enquire about unsolicited telephone calls.

I received one yesterday with a taped message from DD.

[Editor]

Will do, Adrian. Was it any good?

[buxtehude]

Adrian, do you think the party shouldn't use the most current campaigning methods next general election? I find his use of modern techniques rather encouraging.

Perhaps you are also against unsolicited knock on doors from those dreadful old Conservative activists, and those naughty calls from 'Geneva', and all those unrequested letters that we sent out a few months ago.

[Alastair Matlock]

Speaking as an 'elderly Tory' myself, let me assure all of you that not all of us old duffers are inhibited by computers and the internet. In fact, some of us can use them quite proficiently!

[Alastair Matlock]

On the subject of contacts from the campaigns - I receive regular campaign updates from the Cameron Campaign as I requested them, but have received nothing from DD's people other than a recorded telephone message yesterday. No emails, letters, leaflets, nothing. It doesn't particularly matter in my case as I am committed to his opponent, but it would be a bit of an oversight if I were a floating voter.

[Daniel Vince-Archer]

"The members of this party are not stupied."

Quite.

[Kate Castle]

It may be the Davis campaign are doing nothing wrong and I'm sure that if I contacted them to stop the emails coming to me they would - they are interesting so I don't, but the real question is do they have access to details that the Cameron campaign do not. Use of modern technology is good, but fairness among candidates is too. If both have access to the same information then credit to Davis for using it.

[Rick]

"Speaking as an 'elderly Tory' myself, let me assure all of you that not all of us old duffers are inhibited by computers and the internet. In fact, some of us can use them quite proficiently!"

Even Bill Gates turned 50 on 28th October

[James Maskell]

Hague declaring for Cameron tomorrow according to the BBC. Itll be in the News of the World. Election over methinks...

[Imti Deen]

I use to be a tory voter, and switched to Labour when Tony Blair become leader. Have been a Labour voter ever since. I see myself reverting to Tory support if Mr Cameron becomes leader. I don't trust Mr Davis, he doesn't come across as a credible statesman. Mr Cameron on the other hand, although not yet revealing his policies, has much more appeal. I will defenitely vote for him.

If Mr Davis becomes leader, I shall remain a Labour supporter.