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« Sir Malcolm Rifkind quits race - and endorses Ken Clarke | Main | Is your MP consulting you? »

Comments

Daniel Lucraft

I feel someone should enter the direct extrapolation from current proportions:
DD-98
DC-44
KC-32
LF-24.

Paul Chester

DD 60 THEN 75
LF 50 THEN 65
DC 50 THEN 58
KC 38

with Liam Fox then winning the members' ballot.

Alastair Matlock

DD - 61
DC - 52
KC - 45
LF - 40

malcolm

Don't you want to take a bet then James? I'm still waiting for a reply.

Gareth Compton

DD - 60
DC - 50
LF - 45
KC - 40

a-tracy

DC - 43
KC - 43
DD - 60
LF - 52

Ed

Davis -- 71 votes
Cameron -- 58 votes
Clarke -- 37 votes
Fox -- 32 votes

In Round 2:
Davis -- 86 votes
Cameron -- 69 votes
Clarke -- 43 votes

In the membership vote:
Cameron -- 57%
Davis -- 43%

Daniel Vince-Archer

Just out of interest Editor, what's your prediction for the first round?

AnotherNick

Okay with minimal amount of logic and just because it's fun to have a go...

Round 1:
Davis 69
Cameron 59
Clarke 38
Fox 32

Round 2:
Davis 85
Cameron 69
Clarke 44

Among the membership:
Davis by a narrow margin

Julia McIntyre

1st Round:

DD - 73
DC - 47
LF - 40
KC - 38

Peter

DC-42
KC-39
DD-77
LF-40.
Then in membership ballot 58%+ for Davis over Cameron.

Richard

DD- 71
KC- 44
LF- 42
DC- 41

2nd Round

DD- 71
KC- 67
LF- 60

Clarke to win member's ballot 52% to 48%

Coffee Monster

DD 69
DC 57
LF 42
KC 30

Jamie

1st round

DD:67
DC:51
LF:43
KC:37

This assumes a fair few Cornerstone votes for Fox and some Clarke waverers hold firm. A DD/DC run-off would look the only option from this kind of result.

Matthew Oxley

DD 65
DC 48
LF 43
KC 42

A very close first round - I'm going that Davis will U-turn and sneakily try and use his undeclared MP's to tactically vote, but ultimatly fail in the task.

Dr Graham Lister

DD 58
DC 48
LF 47
KC 45

pigmalion

DD 65
DC 43
LF 47
KC 43

Based on the idea that young Carninals don't vote for a young Pope. Which means that there will have to be a second Ballot.

John Rentoul

DD: 75
DC: 58
KC: 39
LF: 24

James Crouch

DD: 70
DC: 48
KC: 46
LF: 34

ALJames

DD: 77
DC: 49
LF: 41
KC: 31

RobC

1st Round
Davis 72
Cameron 61
Fox 33
Clarke 32
2nd round

Cameron 80
Davis 75
Fox 43

Members Ballot
Cameron 59%
Davis 41%

2009 General Election
Con 37%
Lab 35%
Lid Dems 22%
Other 6%

AnotherNick

If RobC gets all that right he deserves more than a mug! (hope he is right too)

Convince me

DD- 78
DC- 48
KC- 37
LF- 35

2nd Round

DD- 94
DC- 78
KC- 26

Member ballot
DC- 59%
DD- 41%

2009 General Election

Con-40%
Lab-33%
Lib D - 18%
Others - 9%

bos4

1st Round
David Davis 68
David Cameron 38
Liam Fox 48
Ken Clarke 44
Tactical voting to eliminate Cameron as soon as possible.
Then 2nd Round
David Davis 88
Liam Fox 76
Ken Clarke 34
Bitter Cameron supporters backing Fox and Fox winning the ballot.

Richard

1st Round

David Davis 67
Kenneth Clarke 45
Liam Fox 44
David Cameron 42


2nd Round

David Davis 69
Liam Fox 67
Kenneth Clarke 62

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