Your predictions for the first round...

Under another post Adrian Sherman has bravely declared his prediction for next Tuesday's first round of voting amongst MPs.  Please use the comments option below to nail your own predictions to the mast.  I'm having conservativehome mugs made for future winners of the caption competition (how exciting!) and the best prediction under this post will also win a mug.  Only one post per person please in this thread...

Comments

[Wat Tyler]

DD 70
DC 50
KC 40
LF 38

[John Coulson]

What happens if Cornerstone do come in tomorrow?
We will all have recast our judgements.

[Disraeli]

David Davis 63
Ken Clarke 47
David Cameron 40
Liam Fox 38

Plus 8 I cannot work out!

[Selsdon Man]

You won't get a mug for that, Disraeli.

[James B]

DC 49
KC 42
DD 65
LF 42

I think that either Clarke or Fox will be eliminated in the first round. Any chance of a cornerstone candidate at this late stage?

[Nick]

Round 1:
DD 65
DC 48
KC 44
LF 41

Round 2:
KC 69
DD 68
DC 61

[Selsdon Man]

Why does Igor Lalic call himself Nick (see email address? Sounds like a KBG agent!

[Selsdon Man]

"Any chance of a cornerstone candidate at this late stage?"

Mr Leigh may surprise (or disgust) us yet!

[Richard Allen]

Round 1

DD: 73
DC: 49
KC: 40
LF: 36

Round 2

DD: 79
KC: 61
DC: 58

[James Hellyer]

There were rumours of a Bill Cash bid circulating last week. Apparently none of the other candidates are serious enough about Europe...

If "Cornerstone" do field a candidate, he won't even secure their full support. It would however allow the first ballot to be more of a barometer than a knockout (my bet: Bill Cash - 1 vote).

[James B]

Sky News have just reported that Cornerstone have decided not to put forward a candidate. This probably means that 20 or so MPs could be backing Fox.

This would give Fox around 35 MPs. Would he get much more?

[James Hellyer]

I think Dr Fox will do quite well with the undeclareds. There are lots of right wingers there ("not Clarke's" as the Telegraph put it), and I suspect he'll do well among what's left of the '05 intake and get some of the wavering undeclared DD backers.

Remember that without Cornerstone his team kept saying they could get 30 to 40 votes.

[James B]

Could be James. Sky were reporting around 20 MPs though. Sky also reported that Teresa May is expected to declare for Cameron tomorrow.

[Andy Stidwill]

David Davis - 65
Ken Clarke - 45
Liam Fox - 45
David Cameron - 43

Come on, Tory MPs - don't let "The Notting Hill Set" take over the Conservative Party!

[Editor]

PLEASE POST PREDICTIONS HERE - AND DISCUSS ELSEWHERE!

[James Burdett]

Round 1

David Davis - 65
David Cameron - 64
Liam Fox - 40
Ken Clarke - 29

Round 2

David Davis - 71
David Cameron - 80
Liam Fox - 47

[Wat Tyler]

Ed- in the event nobody hits the bullseye, how are you going to decide the winner? Sum of absolute errors? Sum of squared errors?

I think we should be told.

[John Coulson]

It has to be sum of absolute errors. If there is the tie it should be the person who got closest to the highest vote. If that is a tie then who of those got closest to the dropout candidate.

[Editor]

Er... as they say in those tabloid newspaper competitions... Editor's decision is final.

Sum of squared errors methinks.

[Terry]

This is a great site. I must return.
(What I think - not want will happen)
1st
DD 65
DC 48
KC 47
LF 38

2nd
DD 78
DC 68
KC 52

[James Hellyer]

"Editor's decision is final."

Go on, give us a tiebreaker question:

"I want XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX to be leader because....."

Most amusing answer wins.

[Samuel Coates]

DD 60
LF 49
DC 52
KC 37

[Richard Weatherill]

DD 76
LF 47
DC 40
KC 35

This is probably wishful thinking (and I'm not necessarily talking about DD!).

[Jacob Traff]

DD 77
DC 62
KC 36
LF 23

[Ronald Collinson]

DD: 71
KC: 48
DC: 43
LF: 28
Other: 8

For no reason at all, I have a feeling that at least one other – whether it be Leigh, Cash, May, Redwood or some other Joe or Josephine – will throw his or her hat into the ring.