Under another post Adrian Sherman has bravely declared his prediction for next Tuesday's first round of voting amongst MPs. Please use the comments option below to nail your own predictions to the mast. I'm having conservativehome mugs made for future winners of the caption competition (how exciting!) and the best prediction under this post will also win a mug. Only one post per person please in this thread...
DD 70
DC 50
KC 40
LF 38
Posted by: Wat Tyler | 11 October 2005 at 18:10
What happens if Cornerstone do come in tomorrow?
We will all have recast our judgements.
Posted by: John Coulson | 11 October 2005 at 19:28
David Davis 63
Ken Clarke 47
David Cameron 40
Liam Fox 38
Plus 8 I cannot work out!
Posted by: Disraeli | 11 October 2005 at 20:41
You won't get a mug for that, Disraeli.
Posted by: Selsdon Man | 11 October 2005 at 20:42
DC 49
KC 42
DD 65
LF 42
I think that either Clarke or Fox will be eliminated in the first round. Any chance of a cornerstone candidate at this late stage?
Posted by: James B | 11 October 2005 at 20:51
Round 1:
DD 65
DC 48
KC 44
LF 41
Round 2:
KC 69
DD 68
DC 61
Posted by: Nick | 11 October 2005 at 21:00
Why does Igor Lalic call himself Nick (see email address? Sounds like a KBG agent!
Posted by: Selsdon Man | 11 October 2005 at 21:10
"Any chance of a cornerstone candidate at this late stage?"
Mr Leigh may surprise (or disgust) us yet!
Posted by: Selsdon Man | 11 October 2005 at 21:12
Round 1
DD: 73
DC: 49
KC: 40
LF: 36
Round 2
DD: 79
KC: 61
DC: 58
Posted by: Richard Allen | 11 October 2005 at 21:17
There were rumours of a Bill Cash bid circulating last week. Apparently none of the other candidates are serious enough about Europe...
If "Cornerstone" do field a candidate, he won't even secure their full support. It would however allow the first ballot to be more of a barometer than a knockout (my bet: Bill Cash - 1 vote).
Posted by: James Hellyer | 11 October 2005 at 21:18
Sky News have just reported that Cornerstone have decided not to put forward a candidate. This probably means that 20 or so MPs could be backing Fox.
This would give Fox around 35 MPs. Would he get much more?
Posted by: James B | 11 October 2005 at 21:20
I think Dr Fox will do quite well with the undeclareds. There are lots of right wingers there ("not Clarke's" as the Telegraph put it), and I suspect he'll do well among what's left of the '05 intake and get some of the wavering undeclared DD backers.
Remember that without Cornerstone his team kept saying they could get 30 to 40 votes.
Posted by: James Hellyer | 11 October 2005 at 21:23
Could be James. Sky were reporting around 20 MPs though. Sky also reported that Teresa May is expected to declare for Cameron tomorrow.
Posted by: James B | 11 October 2005 at 21:29
David Davis - 65
Ken Clarke - 45
Liam Fox - 45
David Cameron - 43
Come on, Tory MPs - don't let "The Notting Hill Set" take over the Conservative Party!
Posted by: Andy Stidwill | 11 October 2005 at 21:35
PLEASE POST PREDICTIONS HERE - AND DISCUSS ELSEWHERE!
Posted by: Editor | 11 October 2005 at 21:43
Round 1
David Davis - 65
David Cameron - 64
Liam Fox - 40
Ken Clarke - 29
Round 2
David Davis - 71
David Cameron - 80
Liam Fox - 47
Posted by: James Burdett | 11 October 2005 at 22:00
Ed- in the event nobody hits the bullseye, how are you going to decide the winner? Sum of absolute errors? Sum of squared errors?
I think we should be told.
Posted by: Wat Tyler | 11 October 2005 at 22:07
It has to be sum of absolute errors. If there is the tie it should be the person who got closest to the highest vote. If that is a tie then who of those got closest to the dropout candidate.
Posted by: John Coulson | 11 October 2005 at 22:12
Er... as they say in those tabloid newspaper competitions... Editor's decision is final.
Sum of squared errors methinks.
Posted by: Editor | 11 October 2005 at 22:33
This is a great site. I must return.
(What I think - not want will happen)
1st
DD 65
DC 48
KC 47
LF 38
2nd
DD 78
DC 68
KC 52
Posted by: Terry | 11 October 2005 at 22:36
"Editor's decision is final."
Go on, give us a tiebreaker question:
"I want XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX to be leader because....."
Most amusing answer wins.
Posted by: James Hellyer | 11 October 2005 at 22:51
DD 60
LF 49
DC 52
KC 37
Posted by: Samuel Coates | 11 October 2005 at 22:56
DD 76
LF 47
DC 40
KC 35
This is probably wishful thinking (and I'm not necessarily talking about DD!).
Posted by: Richard Weatherill | 11 October 2005 at 22:57
DD 77
DC 62
KC 36
LF 23
Posted by: Jacob Traff | 11 October 2005 at 23:57
DD: 71
KC: 48
DC: 43
LF: 28
Other: 8
For no reason at all, I have a feeling that at least one other – whether it be Leigh, Cash, May, Redwood or some other Joe or Josephine – will throw his or her hat into the ring.
Posted by: Ronald Collinson | 12 October 2005 at 00:38