Under another post Adrian Sherman has bravely declared his prediction for next Tuesday's first round of voting amongst MPs. Please use the comments option below to nail your own predictions to the mast. I'm having conservativehome mugs made for future winners of the caption competition (how exciting!) and the best prediction under this post will also win a mug. Only one post per person please in this thread...
DD: 76
DC: 48
LF: 42
KC: 32
Posted by: Andy Cooke | 11 October 2005 at 15:27
DD: 74
DC: 48
KC: 40
LF: 36
Posted by: Mark Fulford | 11 October 2005 at 15:50
DD - 69
KC - 39
LF - 41
DC - 49
Posted by: John Coulson | 11 October 2005 at 15:50
David Cameron 33
David Davis 75
Ken Clarke 39
Liam Fox 51
Posted by: David Walker | 11 October 2005 at 15:56
DD- 75
DC-48
KC-45
LF-30
Posted by: christopher owen | 11 October 2005 at 15:57
Davis - 60
Cameron - 50
Ken - 48
Fox - 40
I really hope I'm wrong.
Posted by: Daniel Vince-Archer | 11 October 2005 at 15:57
DD - 66
DC - 51
LF - 43
KC - 38
Posted by: Henry Cook | 11 October 2005 at 16:04
David Davis: 62
David Cameron: 50
Liam Fox: 44
Kenneth Clarke: 42
Posted by: Kris | 11 October 2005 at 16:05
Davis 76
Clarke 42
Fox 42
Cameron 38
Cue, much wailing in the trattorias of Notting Hill.
Posted by: Adrian Sherman | 11 October 2005 at 16:06
DD 60
DC 52
LF 55
KC 31
Second round
DD 45
DC 88
LF 65
Posted by: Burkean | 11 October 2005 at 16:25
DD 63
DC 50
KC 50
LF 35
Posted by: NickL | 11 October 2005 at 16:40
DD 69
LF 50
DC 44
KC 35
Posted by: wasp | 11 October 2005 at 16:55
DD 75
KC 43
LF 42
DC 40
Posted by: John Hustings | 11 October 2005 at 17:01
Davis 70 (assuming no more defections)
Cameron 44
Fox 44 (including most of the undeclared Cornerstone)
Clarke 36
Davis has a dozen or so former Clarke supporters who could go back to Ken. Davis could also lose support to Fox (right-wing) or Cameron (ex-Portillistas). It could be very close on the first ballot.
Posted by: Selsdon Man | 11 October 2005 at 17:07
Sorry Fox should be 48.
Posted by: Selsdon Man | 11 October 2005 at 17:09
It seems that wasp and I are almost identical!
Posted by: Selsdon Man | 11 October 2005 at 17:12
Round 1
DD 72
DC 50
KC 42
LF 33
Round 2
DD 93
DC 64
KC 39
Posted by: Convince me | 11 October 2005 at 17:16
DD 66
LF 53
DC 43
KC 36
Posted by: James Hellyer | 11 October 2005 at 17:20
DC...63...then... 82
LF...45...then... 68
DD...53...then... 48
KC...37
Posted by: Oberon Houston | 11 October 2005 at 17:23
James H,I think you are letting what you wish for cloud your judgement.I don't believe Liam will finish in the top 2 in the 1st ballot.Fancy a bet?
Posted by: malcolm | 11 October 2005 at 17:27
DD: 66
LF: 45
KC: 45
DC: 42
Posted by: Elena | 11 October 2005 at 17:43
Blimey, DD out on the first ballot! Who would go on the second Elena?
Posted by: Oberon Houston | 11 October 2005 at 17:46
Sorry, DC out on first ballot. Even more interesting, who on the second - KC for a right wing coup?
Posted by: Oberon Houston | 11 October 2005 at 17:47
Nah. DC would go out first Oberon :).
Posted by: Elena | 11 October 2005 at 17:47
I think most of the Cameron backers would go to Clarke. Whoever gets through the first round out of KC or DC (and I think one of them will be the first eliminated) it'll be interesting to see whether some of DD's support goes to LF.
Posted by: Elena | 11 October 2005 at 17:49