Sir Malcolm's decision to quit the race reduces the field to four candidates and so I've cleared the clutter from the post when he was still in the race and listed below is a fresh list of public declarations.
This list incorporates today's news that Michael Ancram (a Rifkind backer for all of four days) and Anne Milton have both declared for David Cameron.
PS Don't forget to enter conservativehome's first round prediction competition by clicking here...
David Davis (66)
- David Amess
- Richard Bacon
- John Baron
- Sir Paul Beresford
- Graham Brady
- Julian Brazier
- James Brokenshire (13/10)
- Dr Greg Clark
- Derek Conway
- David Davies
- Philip Davies
- David Davis
- Nadine Dorries
- Jonathan Djanogly
- James Duddridge
- Nigel Evans
- David Evenett
- Michael Fallon
- Mark Field
- Eric Forth
- Roger Gale
- David Gauke
- Cheryl Gillan
- Paul Goodman
- Damian Green
- Dominic Grieve
- Philip Hammond
- Nick Herbert
- Mark Hoban
- Philip Hollobone
- Adam Holloway
- Stewart Jackson
- David Jones
- Julie Kirkbride
- Greg Knight
- Ian Liddell-Grainger
- David Lidington
- Tim Loughton
- Andrew Mackay
- Anne Main
- Humphrey Malins
- John Maples
- Patrick Mercer
- Andrew Mitchell
- Malcolm Moss
- Andrew Murrison
- Richard Ottaway
- James Paice
- Mike Penning
- Eric Pickles
- Mark Pritchard
- David Ruffley
- Lee Scott
- Mark Simmonds
- Keith Simpson
- Richard Spring
- Robert Syms
- Ian Taylor
- Shailesh Vara
- Charles Walker
- Ben Wallace
- Bill Wiggin
- David Willetts
- David Wilshire
- Ann Winterton
- Nicholas Winterton
David Cameron (39)
- Peter Ainsworth
- Michael Ancram (joined from Team Rifkind)
- Tony Baldry
- Greg Barker
- Richard Benyon
- Sir John Butterfill
- David Cameron
- Douglas Carswell (12/10)
- Alan Duncan
- Philip Dunne (17/10)
- Tobias Ellwood
- Nick Gibb MP
- Michael Gove
- James Gray
- Jeremy Hunt
- Bernard Jenkin (12/10)
- Boris Johnson
- Robert Key (13/10)
- Jacqui Lait (13/10)
- Mark Lancaster
- Oliver Letwin
- Peter Lilley (17/10)
- Peter Luff
- Theresa May (12/10)
- Maria Miller (17/10)
- Anne Milton
- David Mundell
- George Osborne
- Andrew Robathan
- Hugh Robertson
- Grant Shapps
- Nicholas Soames
- Graham Stuart (17/10)
- Hugo Swire
- Ed Vaizey
- Peter Viggers
- Theresa Villiers
- Robert Wilson (17/10)
- Jeremy Wright
Kenneth Clarke (26)
- James Arbuthnot (17/11)
- John Bercow
- Alistair Burt
- James Clappison
- Kenneth Clarke
- Sir Patrick Cormack (recent days)
- David Curry
- Quentin Davies MP
- Stephen Dorrell
- Edward Garnier
- John Greenway
- John Gummer
- Charles Hendry
- John Horam
- Andrew Lansley (16/10)
- Michael Mates
- Andrew Pelling (17/10)
- John Penrose (12/10)
- Sir Malcolm Rifkind
- Anthony Steen
- Andrew Tyrie
- Robert Walter
- Nigel Waterson
- Ann Widdecombe
- Tim Yeo
- Sir George Young
Liam Fox (23)
- David Burrowes
- Geoffrey Cox (17/10)
- Stephen Crabb
- Liam Fox
- Christopher Fraser (16/10)
- Mark Francois (14/10)
- Robert Goodwill (14/10)
- Chris Grayling
- Justine Greening
- Greg Hands
- Stephen Hammond
- Mark Harper
- John Hayes (11/10)
- Oliver Heald
- Gerald Howarth (16/10)
- Eleanor Laing
- Daniel Kawczynski
- Brooks Newmark
- Stephen O’Brien
- Owen Paterson (14/10)
- Gary Streeter
- Desmond Swayne
- Angela Watkinson (14/10)
Point is James through is that you guessed wrong(which is okay), but then you try to make such a song and dance with it when others here MAY do the same?
Posted by: Peter | 14 October 2005 at 15:18
"Point is James through is that you guessed wrong(which is okay), but then you try to make such a song and dance with it when others here MAY do the same?"
What are you talking about? I've not made a fuss about what other people have guessed. You're the one who seems to be doing that.
Posted by: James Hellyer | 14 October 2005 at 15:25
As I'm too lazy to do this myself, I wonder, dear Edito, if you would add a list of those who MPs who have *still* to publicly declare? For what it's worth, just like they have to do in any regular division in the Commons, I think MPs should have to vote in public when there is no incumbent. We should know what the people we have selected are getting up to!
Posted by: Henry Mackintosh | 14 October 2005 at 16:13
Peter, Michael Lord was in fact in The Times list. He was the very last name, in the Won't Say category. (That's enough about that, I think).
Posted by: Andy Stidwill | 14 October 2005 at 22:13
I'll think about producing the list of still-to-declares *dear Henr* but I can't promise owt.
I love your idea of making the MPs vote in public (as, of course, they do in Parliament). Unfortunately the MPs are as likely to give up the secret ballot as Ken is likely to give up smoking!
Posted by: Editor | 14 October 2005 at 23:21
Gerald Howarth declares for Dr Fox in the Sunday Telegraph.
http://portal.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2005/10/16/ndavis16.xml&sSheet=/news/2005/10/16/ixhome.html
Posted by: James Hellyer | 16 October 2005 at 00:29
Andrew Lansley has just declared for Ken Clarke. This is a very important endorsement for Ken, as he's a respected, moderate and senior figure in the Party.
Tuesday has the potential to be an intersting day for all concerned, especially as the realisation dawns that the Party would be made to look foolish if he were denied the leadership AGAIN.As Rifkind said, he's head and shoulders above the other candidates.
Posted by: Adrian Sherman | 16 October 2005 at 12:59
Thank you Adrian. I'll update.
Posted by: Editor | 16 October 2005 at 13:07
That's no surprise though Adrian.
Posted by: Sean Fear | 16 October 2005 at 13:17
It was to me, Sean. I thought he would either go for Cameron or Davis.
Posted by: Adrian Sherman | 16 October 2005 at 13:23
Now that Lansley has declared, what do people make of those on the front benches who have not declared?
Redwood I guess will back Fox or Davis
Howard & Maude probably for Cameron
Any ideas on Caroline Spelman's vote?
Any ideas on the other undeclareds?
Posted by: AnotherNick | 16 October 2005 at 18:58
Lansley voted for Ken last time but would have been a target for the Cameron team. He and Theresa May have been arguing for positive discrimination to get more women selected.
Posted by: Selsdon Man | 16 October 2005 at 19:02
The Telegraph indicated that Redwood will go for Dr Fox. The undeclared list in the Times looks like people who'd mostly go to Fox or Cameron.
I really think a lot depends on how Davis's vote holds up. I understand that some of his early backers are now wavering over Cameron, Clarke and Fox, but that he may get some undeclareds to cover the shortfall.
There's a real risk that if Davis gets 65 votes or less that his campaign will go backwards. I imagine Conway is busy strongarming MPs right now...
Posted by: James Hellyer | 16 October 2005 at 19:12
I'll probably be proved wrong but....
Redwood - Fox
Howard and Maude - Cameron
Spelman - Clarke
From what people tell me about the Davis camp, they're resigned to losing about 5 but, as James said, hope to make this up on the undeclared. I think they'll end with around 67?
Personally, I don't reckon there's a great deal in it between messrs Fox, Clarke and Cameron, despite the latter apparantly being home and hosed.
Posted by: Adrian Sherman | 16 October 2005 at 19:22
Just a passing comment but isn't Portillo a big Clarke supporter? Portillo is the 'big beast' of the modernising wing of the party and is big pals with Maude. I am in no way suggesting Maude isn't his own man but I wouldn't bank on Maude voting for Cameron. I would also point out that perhaps Camerons declared aren't as steady as perhaps we might think. The younger MP's may be hedging their bets by backing someone they perceive as a potential winner but will maybe vote to keep a man who could be younger than them from wearing the crown. I would also note that if David can tactically get Clarke through to the 2nd round then we have a split centre left vote. This would bode well for him as the membership would see him romping home. Whoever his opponent is would it be wise for the membership to foist a leader on the Parliamentary party when it was Davis - 100+
Clarke - 50
Cameron- 50
Posted by: John Coulson | 16 October 2005 at 19:37
I've just learnt that Christopher Fraser is about to declare for liam Fox. I've updated the list accordingly.
Posted by: Editor | 16 October 2005 at 20:06
So people still think Michael Howard will vote for Cameron despite him rubbishing the 2005 election campaign (now who was head of policy co-ordination for that again?) at every opportunity? I agree though about Marxist Fraud, sorry Francis Maude supporting the NewLabourist - they're a perfect match made in Blairite hell.
Incidentally, amongst many highlights on Bremner, Bird and Fortune tonight (Prescott, Brown and Blair on Strictly Come Dancing was particularly brilliant), I think Rory Bremner has got his Cameron impression down to a tee.
Posted by: Daniel Vince-Archer | 16 October 2005 at 20:25
On Michael Portillo...
When I had the privilege of meeting him recently (he spoke at Edinburgh University, at which I am a student) he said:
"I have nothing in common with Ken Clarke"
and:
"I'll probably end up voting for Cameron"
Those quotes are one hundred percent true, and very memorable. He gave a couple of strong indications of his support for Cameron and his position in the 'Stop Davis' camp.
Posted by: Oliver | 17 October 2005 at 12:32
Well, on the last edition of "This Week", Michael Portillo said that he would vote for whichever candidate in the final two wasn't David Davis.
He's also made it clear he supports Clarke not because he agrees with him, but because he thinks Clare would deliver the least bad election results of the candidates on offer. Although he says he thinks Cameron believes the right things (which should warn the rest of us off), he's still indicating that Clarke is the better electoral proposition.
Posted by: James Hellyer | 17 October 2005 at 12:37
Maria Miller and Peter Lilley have just declared for David Cameron
Posted by: Rob James | 17 October 2005 at 13:51
Graham Stuart has declared for Cameron too.
Posted by: James Burdett | 17 October 2005 at 14:00
Where did you see that about Graham stuart? I can't find that anywhere, just peter Lilley and Maria Miller.
Posted by: Graham D'Amiral | 17 October 2005 at 15:04
Firstly James it was you who accused me of guestimating to start with not me, secondly why do you really hate Davis so much.
Andy if you look at the times list Andrew Turner is at the bottom of the Won't Say not Michael Lord so that is enough said?
Posted by: Peter | 17 October 2005 at 15:52
"Maria Miller and Peter Lilley have just declared for David Cameron...Graham Stuart has declared for Cameron too."
No surprises there! That keeps my forecast on track.
Posted by: Selsdon Man | 17 October 2005 at 16:06
With some of the recent declarations for Cameron, Davis' argument that he is the only candidate with support across the right/left spectrum is starting to look a little hollow.
Posted by: Louise | 17 October 2005 at 16:50