Who's backing who? (rolling update 3)

Sir Malcolm's decision to quit the race reduces the field to four candidates and so I've cleared the clutter from the post when he was still in the race and listed below is a fresh list of public declarations.

This list incorporates today's news that Michael Ancram (a Rifkind backer for all of four days) and Anne Milton have both declared for David Cameron.

PS Don't forget to enter conservativehome's first round prediction competition by clicking here...

David Davis (66)

1. David Amess
2. Richard Bacon
3. John Baron
4. Sir Paul Beresford
5. Graham Brady
6. Julian Brazier
7. James Brokenshire (13/10)
8. Dr Greg Clark
9. Derek Conway
10. David Davies
11. Philip Davies
12. David Davis
13. Nadine Dorries
14. Jonathan Djanogly
15. James Duddridge
16. Nigel Evans
17. David Evenett
18. Michael Fallon
19. Mark Field
20. Eric Forth
21. Roger Gale
22. David Gauke
23. Cheryl Gillan
24. Paul Goodman
25. Damian Green
26. Dominic Grieve
27. Philip Hammond
28. Nick Herbert
29. Mark Hoban
30. Philip Hollobone
31. Adam Holloway
32. Stewart Jackson
33. David Jones
34. Julie Kirkbride
35. Greg Knight
36. Ian Liddell-Grainger
37. David Lidington
38. Tim Loughton
39. Andrew Mackay
40. Anne Main
41. Humphrey Malins
42. John Maples
43. Patrick Mercer
44. Andrew Mitchell
45. Malcolm Moss
46. Andrew Murrison
47. Richard Ottaway
48. James Paice
49. Mike Penning
50. Eric Pickles
51. Mark Pritchard
52. David Ruffley
53. Lee Scott
54. Mark Simmonds
55. Keith Simpson
56. Richard Spring
57. Robert Syms
58. Ian Taylor
59. Shailesh Vara
60. Charles Walker
61. Ben Wallace
62. Bill Wiggin
63. David Willetts
64. David Wilshire
65. Ann Winterton
66. Nicholas Winterton

David Cameron (39)

1. Peter Ainsworth
2. Michael Ancram (joined from Team Rifkind)
3. Tony Baldry
4. Greg Barker
5. Richard Benyon
6. Sir John Butterfill
7. David Cameron
8. Douglas Carswell (12/10)
9. Alan Duncan
10. Philip Dunne (17/10)
11. Tobias Ellwood
12. Nick Gibb MP
13. Michael Gove
14. James Gray
15. Jeremy Hunt
16. Bernard Jenkin (12/10)
17. Boris Johnson
18. Robert Key (13/10)
19. Jacqui Lait (13/10)
20. Mark Lancaster
21. Oliver Letwin
22. Peter Lilley (17/10)
23. Peter Luff
24. Theresa May (12/10)
25. Maria Miller (17/10)
26. Anne Milton
27. David Mundell
28. George Osborne
29. Andrew Robathan
30. Hugh Robertson
31. Grant Shapps
32. Nicholas Soames
33. Graham Stuart (17/10)
34. Hugo Swire
35. Ed Vaizey
36. Peter Viggers
37. Theresa Villiers
38. Robert Wilson (17/10)
39. Jeremy Wright

Kenneth Clarke (26)

1. James Arbuthnot (17/11)
2. John Bercow
3. Alistair Burt
4. James Clappison
5. Kenneth Clarke
6. Sir Patrick Cormack (recent days)
7. David Curry
8. Quentin Davies MP
9. Stephen Dorrell
10. Edward Garnier
11. John Greenway
12. John Gummer
13. Charles Hendry
14. John Horam
15. Andrew Lansley (16/10)
16. Michael Mates
17. Andrew Pelling (17/10)
18. John Penrose (12/10)
19. Sir Malcolm Rifkind
20. Anthony Steen
21. Andrew Tyrie
22. Robert Walter
23. Nigel Waterson
24. Ann Widdecombe
25. Tim Yeo
26. Sir George Young

Liam Fox (23)

1. David Burrowes
2. Geoffrey Cox (17/10)
3. Stephen Crabb
4. Liam Fox
5. Christopher Fraser (16/10)
6. Mark Francois (14/10)
7. Robert Goodwill (14/10)
8. Chris Grayling
9. Justine Greening
10. Greg Hands
11. Stephen Hammond
12. Mark Harper
13. John Hayes (11/10)
14. Oliver Heald
15. Gerald Howarth (16/10)
16. Eleanor Laing
17. Daniel Kawczynski
18. Brooks Newmark
19. Stephen O’Brien
20. Owen Paterson (14/10)
21. Gary Streeter
22. Desmond Swayne
23. Angela Watkinson (14/10)

Comments

[Peter]

Point is James through is that you guessed wrong(which is okay), but then you try to make such a song and dance with it when others here MAY do the same?

[James Hellyer]

"Point is James through is that you guessed wrong(which is okay), but then you try to make such a song and dance with it when others here MAY do the same?"

What are you talking about? I've not made a fuss about what other people have guessed. You're the one who seems to be doing that.

[Henry Mackintosh]

As I'm too lazy to do this myself, I wonder, dear Edito, if you would add a list of those who MPs who have *still* to publicly declare? For what it's worth, just like they have to do in any regular division in the Commons, I think MPs should have to vote in public when there is no incumbent. We should know what the people we have selected are getting up to!

[Andy Stidwill]

Peter, Michael Lord was in fact in The Times list. He was the very last name, in the Won't Say category. (That's enough about that, I think).

[Editor]

I'll think about producing the list of still-to-declares *dear Henr* but I can't promise owt.

I love your idea of making the MPs vote in public (as, of course, they do in Parliament). Unfortunately the MPs are as likely to give up the secret ballot as Ken is likely to give up smoking!

[James Hellyer]

Gerald Howarth declares for Dr Fox in the Sunday Telegraph.

http://portal.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2005/10/16/ndavis16.xml&sSheet=/news/2005/10/16/ixhome.html

[Adrian Sherman]

Andrew Lansley has just declared for Ken Clarke. This is a very important endorsement for Ken, as he's a respected, moderate and senior figure in the Party.

Tuesday has the potential to be an intersting day for all concerned, especially as the realisation dawns that the Party would be made to look foolish if he were denied the leadership AGAIN.As Rifkind said, he's head and shoulders above the other candidates.

[Editor]

Thank you Adrian. I'll update.

[Sean Fear]

That's no surprise though Adrian.

[Adrian Sherman]

It was to me, Sean. I thought he would either go for Cameron or Davis.

[AnotherNick]

Now that Lansley has declared, what do people make of those on the front benches who have not declared?

Redwood I guess will back Fox or Davis
Howard & Maude probably for Cameron
Any ideas on Caroline Spelman's vote?
Any ideas on the other undeclareds?

[Selsdon Man]

Lansley voted for Ken last time but would have been a target for the Cameron team. He and Theresa May have been arguing for positive discrimination to get more women selected.

[James Hellyer]

The Telegraph indicated that Redwood will go for Dr Fox. The undeclared list in the Times looks like people who'd mostly go to Fox or Cameron.

I really think a lot depends on how Davis's vote holds up. I understand that some of his early backers are now wavering over Cameron, Clarke and Fox, but that he may get some undeclareds to cover the shortfall.

There's a real risk that if Davis gets 65 votes or less that his campaign will go backwards. I imagine Conway is busy strongarming MPs right now...

[Adrian Sherman]

I'll probably be proved wrong but....

Redwood - Fox
Howard and Maude - Cameron
Spelman - Clarke

From what people tell me about the Davis camp, they're resigned to losing about 5 but, as James said, hope to make this up on the undeclared. I think they'll end with around 67?

Personally, I don't reckon there's a great deal in it between messrs Fox, Clarke and Cameron, despite the latter apparantly being home and hosed.

[John Coulson]

Just a passing comment but isn't Portillo a big Clarke supporter? Portillo is the 'big beast' of the modernising wing of the party and is big pals with Maude. I am in no way suggesting Maude isn't his own man but I wouldn't bank on Maude voting for Cameron. I would also point out that perhaps Camerons declared aren't as steady as perhaps we might think. The younger MP's may be hedging their bets by backing someone they perceive as a potential winner but will maybe vote to keep a man who could be younger than them from wearing the crown. I would also note that if David can tactically get Clarke through to the 2nd round then we have a split centre left vote. This would bode well for him as the membership would see him romping home. Whoever his opponent is would it be wise for the membership to foist a leader on the Parliamentary party when it was Davis - 100+
Clarke - 50
Cameron- 50

[Editor]

I've just learnt that Christopher Fraser is about to declare for liam Fox. I've updated the list accordingly.

[Daniel Vince-Archer]

So people still think Michael Howard will vote for Cameron despite him rubbishing the 2005 election campaign (now who was head of policy co-ordination for that again?) at every opportunity? I agree though about Marxist Fraud, sorry Francis Maude supporting the NewLabourist - they're a perfect match made in Blairite hell.

Incidentally, amongst many highlights on Bremner, Bird and Fortune tonight (Prescott, Brown and Blair on Strictly Come Dancing was particularly brilliant), I think Rory Bremner has got his Cameron impression down to a tee.

[Oliver]

On Michael Portillo...

When I had the privilege of meeting him recently (he spoke at Edinburgh University, at which I am a student) he said:

"I have nothing in common with Ken Clarke"

and:

"I'll probably end up voting for Cameron"

Those quotes are one hundred percent true, and very memorable. He gave a couple of strong indications of his support for Cameron and his position in the 'Stop Davis' camp.

[James Hellyer]

Well, on the last edition of "This Week", Michael Portillo said that he would vote for whichever candidate in the final two wasn't David Davis.

He's also made it clear he supports Clarke not because he agrees with him, but because he thinks Clare would deliver the least bad election results of the candidates on offer. Although he says he thinks Cameron believes the right things (which should warn the rest of us off), he's still indicating that Clarke is the better electoral proposition.

[Rob James]

Maria Miller and Peter Lilley have just declared for David Cameron

[James Burdett]

Graham Stuart has declared for Cameron too.

[Graham D'Amiral]

Where did you see that about Graham stuart? I can't find that anywhere, just peter Lilley and Maria Miller.

[Peter]

Firstly James it was you who accused me of guestimating to start with not me, secondly why do you really hate Davis so much.
Andy if you look at the times list Andrew Turner is at the bottom of the Won't Say not Michael Lord so that is enough said?

[Selsdon Man]

"Maria Miller and Peter Lilley have just declared for David Cameron...Graham Stuart has declared for Cameron too."

No surprises there! That keeps my forecast on track.

[Louise]

With some of the recent declarations for Cameron, Davis' argument that he is the only candidate with support across the right/left spectrum is starting to look a little hollow.