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« Is your MP consulting you? | Main | Ken Clarke t-shirts »

Comments

Dan

"Mr Fox 19 declared and three probables

...there are reports that Mr Fox has cut a deal with 15 members of the 25-strong Cornerstone group"

Just seen this on the Scotsmans site, I was aware of the 15 that are supposedly from Cornerstone but has anybody any idea who these other 3 are making it up to 19 announced for Fox? or indeed to who these other 3 possbiles are?

If this information is to be believed it would put Fox at 37 MPs, with the possibilty of more out of the remaining number that have yet to declare, thus leapfrogging both Cameron and Clarke.

James Hellyer

Those figures are lifted from the Times, Dan:

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,17129-1823540,00.html

It's actually 21 for Fox (The Times can't add up), with William Hague, IDS and Peter Lilley as probables. You can add between 10 and 13 to his total for the Cornerstone members who haven't declared on that list.

Peter

Actually James their are know only 9 Cornerstone MPs left to support someone out of the original 27 if we take into acoount the soft votes like IDS and Rosindell.

Andy Stidwill

Things really are starting to look a bit grim for Ken Clarke. Both Lait and Key were crucial potential backers for him.
I think that he can't afford to lose any more of his previous (2001) supporters, such as Peter Bottomley or Crispin Blunt.

Of the 59 MPs still to declare, I calculate 34 to be definitely not Clarke supporters, leaving a pool of only 25 possibles for Ken to target, most of which will be difficult for him to win.

James Hellyer

"Actually James their are know only 9 Cornerstone MPs left to support someone out of the original 27 if we take into acoount the soft votes like IDS and Rosindell."

I count nine (not including Iain Duncan Smith).

Adrian Sherman

I'm very surprised that Lait has plumped for Caviar Cameron, though I always had Key down as a supporter of DC. Like most Tories, he's a Eurosceptic 'moderniser'.

Though things are looking shaky for Ken, don't write him off yet. I think he'll get 40 votes, but he may need to be helped by Davis supporters voting tactically to get him to 43. Cameron will score pledges, plus 4 (Howard, Maude, Maclean); 42 IMHO.

It's vitally important to DD that a handful of his supporters back LF and KC (say, 3 to each) to knock Cameron out, as I can't see DD him winning a member's ballot against Cameron.

I've got a feeling that Ken's 'off the cuff' remark yesterday about never having taken cocaine, may be more significant than first thought....
....Sunday papers could be interesting.

I wouldn't underestimate the 'Anyone but Cameron' campaign.

Selsdon Man

"Selsdon you don't seem to have read the Times about Rosindell?"

It only has him as a probable Davis supporter. Has he formally declared? If so, I missed it.

Selsdon Man

That Times article also had Lait backing Clarke - she has backed Cameron! It had James Brokenshire undecided but he has declared for Davis. So you will forgive me if I take it with a pinch of salt.

Andy Stidwill

I'm not quite sure what the original source was for Brokenshire's declaration for Davis. Anyone know?

"It's vitally important to DD that a handful of his supporters back LF and KC (say, 3 to each) to knock Cameron out, as I can't see DD him winning a member's ballot against Cameron."

As well as hopefully knocking out Cameron, it would also give the impression of momentum if his "loaned" votes came back to him in round 2 and his count appeared to increase, so really it would be a very useful move for Davis.

Adrian Sherman

Yes, I hadn't though about that, good point. I wonder if the "number crunchers" in the Davis camp are contemplating this.

Clarke, Davis and Fox all need Cameron to exit next Tuesday, but only one of them has the numbers to make it happen.

Andy Stidwill

Yes, there'll be an enormous amount of bitterness from the Cameron camp if he gets knocked out on Tuesday, because his team will know that it was only possible thanks to tactical voting by Davis supporters.

Adrian Sherman

Oh, I wouldn't worry Andy. They'll get over it. It's not a matter of life and death.

andy

Why does everyone beleive the negative press that DD has being receiving. If the people want a battle between DD and DC then let them have it. I'm sure that this will not only prove that the media has too much influence over people's opinions but that it would also prove that DD was, is and will show himself to be the best choice.

Michael Smith

Am I the only one who thinks this should be a public ballot, like voting in the house of commons?

No, you're not the only one. I agree.

David Spencer

The Times 'who's backing whom' totals 200. Robert Key is double counted (probable DC and Cameron or Clarke).
What's the other error?

Adrian Sherman

Can someone please tell me what has happened to Stephen Hammond, the Tory Member for Wimbledon? He appears on no list I have seen!

Is he still an MP or alive??

Andy Stidwill

On the website below, Stephen Hammond is listed as a Fox supporter.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/4304664.stm

Andy Stidwill

David, it looks like the other error in The Times "Who's Backing Who" is the fact that David Davis's declared number of supporters is given as 66, when there are only 65 names in that list.

Selsdon Man

"Can someone please tell me what has happened to Stephen Hammond, the Tory Member for Wimbledon? He appears on no list I have seen!

Is he still an MP or alive??"

Stephen Hammond declared for Liam Fox at Blackpool and has been listed as a Fox supporter since then. I don't like your tone Adrian. Wake up!

Peter

James I said out of the original 27 Cornerstone MPs and why know change to just 10 rather than 10-13. Selsdon, How come Chope is close but not Rosindell to Davis? Andy, In the Times it said 65MPs not 66 the one extra was Brokenshire afterwards. Finally the person lost on the list yesterday was Michael Lord as they counted Robert Key twice.

Selsdon Man

Chope chairs Conservative Way Forward and chaired its conference its conference dinner - guest speaker DD. I was surprised to see Chris listed as a Cornerstone member.

James Hellyer

James I said out of the original 27 Cornerstone MPs and why know change to just 10 rather than 10-13.

Because I sat down with a list of MPs and worked out how many undeclared Cornerstone MPs there were, as opposed to guesstimating...

Peter

Is this the same James that guestimated that Ancram would not support Cameron then?
Selsdon many MPs I think have surprised us how they have signed up to things don't you think?

James Hellyer

Is this the same James that guestimated that Ancram would not support Cameron then?

No, that wasn't an estimated number of undeclared MPs, that was a prediction based upon Michael Ancram's policy postions and past leadership election voting record (neither of which lead to supporting Cameron).

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