At about 5.20pm today we'll know which of the three leadership candidates have survived the first round of parliamentary voting. The list of public declarations suggests that Davids Cameron and Davis will both graduate to round two. The vote for Mr Davis must at least match his 66 public declarations or his campaign will be seen to be in retreat. Mr Cameron will look to win around a quarter of the undeclared group of MPs and hope, therefore, to reap more than 50 votes in total. Late last night two new MPs - Robert Wilson, the MP for Reading East and Philip Dunne, the MP for Ludlow - declared for Mr Cameron. Mr Wilson declared for Mr Cameron after yesterday's all-parliamentary-party hustings:
“I have been to all of the hustings and have met all of the candidates. What came across is that David Cameron is more in tune with the country as it is today than anyone else. We need to reach beyond our 33 percent core constituency and I believe that David Cameron is the man to do it. I have also been very impressed by the way he has dealt with the media pressure of the last week. It has been a test for him and he came through with flying colours.”
[Mr Cameron also wins the backing of the Daily Star this morning - in the last seven days he has also won the support of the FT and Economist.]
The real battle of today is between Fox and Clarke. Dr Fox has failed to win the public backing of many Cornerstone MPs but Geoffrey Cox (no less than the MP of 'our own James Hellyer') endorsed the good doctor overnight. My guess is that Dr Fox will beat Ken Clarke today - not least because of tactical voting by a handful of undecided right-wing MPs to prevent a Clarke leadership. Many of them share the view of today's Sun (a Eurosceptic and hawkish newspaper): "Tory MPs start voting today for their new leader, and for the sake of the country it is vital they get it right. That means a firm NO to Ken Clarke. He would be a disaster."
Sean, Flight was a large part of the reason why I didn't vote Conservative at the last election. That plus the atrocious manifesto. I had already left the Party. I remain a believer in the values of the liberal centre-right but I would rather not vote than choose to be misrepresented and misgoverned by a power-mad authoritarian clique.
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