At about 5.20pm today we'll know which of the three leadership candidates have survived the first round of parliamentary voting. The list of public declarations suggests that Davids Cameron and Davis will both graduate to round two. The vote for Mr Davis must at least match his 66 public declarations or his campaign will be seen to be in retreat. Mr Cameron will look to win around a quarter of the undeclared group of MPs and hope, therefore, to reap more than 50 votes in total. Late last night two new MPs - Robert Wilson, the MP for Reading East and Philip Dunne, the MP for Ludlow - declared for Mr Cameron. Mr Wilson declared for Mr Cameron after yesterday's all-parliamentary-party hustings:
“I have been to all of the hustings and have met all of the candidates. What came across is that David Cameron is more in tune with the country as it is today than anyone else. We need to reach beyond our 33 percent core constituency and I believe that David Cameron is the man to do it. I have also been very impressed by the way he has dealt with the media pressure of the last week. It has been a test for him and he came through with flying colours.”
[Mr Cameron also wins the backing of the Daily Star this morning - in the last seven days he has also won the support of the FT and Economist.]
The real battle of today is between Fox and Clarke. Dr Fox has failed to win the public backing of many Cornerstone MPs but Geoffrey Cox (no less than the MP of 'our own James Hellyer') endorsed the good doctor overnight. My guess is that Dr Fox will beat Ken Clarke today - not least because of tactical voting by a handful of undecided right-wing MPs to prevent a Clarke leadership. Many of them share the view of today's Sun (a Eurosceptic and hawkish newspaper): "Tory MPs start voting today for their new leader, and for the sake of the country it is vital they get it right. That means a firm NO to Ken Clarke. He would be a disaster."
Ed - in previous leadership elections have the newspapers treated them like a General Election - in that they have come out for one candidate or another, or is this a new phenomenon?
Posted by: Jonathan Sheppard | 18 October 2005 at 08:49
The leader I would like to see in order of preference:
1. Cameron (by far)
2. Clarke
3. Fox
4. Davis (Not at all)
Good luck David Cameron today - he has the charisma and clarity to reach out beyond our core vote.
Posted by: michael | 18 October 2005 at 09:05
I certainly can't remember it, I think it shows that this contest has actually had the impact of re-engaging vast numbers of people and the 4th estate with the Tory party. This has then fed back into the campaign as everyone who has a say MPs and members judge who best to exploit this new found interest. Let's hope that we get it right...
Posted by: James Burdett | 18 October 2005 at 09:08
Jonathan: I think all the Tory newspapers have endorsed in the past. The Mail supported Clarke last time, The Telegraph backed IDS. I can't remember there being so much interest from other newspapers. Much of the credit for that must go to David Cameron.
Posted by: Editor | 18 October 2005 at 09:17
Michael - but would you rather have Davis than Gordon Brown running the country?
Posted by: Jonathan Sheppard | 18 October 2005 at 09:17
I agree with Jonathan Sheppard. Attila the Hun would be better than DD.
Posted by: Justin Hinchcliffe | 18 October 2005 at 09:24
Jonathan, yes, I'd rather have David Davis running the country than Gordon Brown. Problem is, I think floating voters would rather have Gordon Brown.
Posted by: michael | 18 October 2005 at 09:31
We are waiting for our editor's endorsement. Come off the fence, Tim!
Posted by: Selsdon Man | 18 October 2005 at 09:35
The silence from the undeclared Cornerstone MPs is mysterious. There are also several other rightwingers and possible Clarke supporters who are staying silent. They hold the key to to today's vote.
Posted by: Selsdon Man | 18 October 2005 at 09:41
Is Edward Leigh standing? (-:
Posted by: Justin Hinchcliffe | 18 October 2005 at 09:42
Mr Cameron also wins the backing of the Daily Star this morning
Communist pornographers for Cameron! It's not much of an endorsement is it?
Posted by: | 18 October 2005 at 09:43
Who cares? Get a life!
Posted by: Justin Hinchcliffe | 18 October 2005 at 09:45
Selsdon Man: you won't have to wait long. I'm posting my endorsement at noon-ish...
Posted by: Editor | 18 October 2005 at 09:49
Why not now? What's with all these silly games?
Posted by: Justin Hinchcliffe | 18 October 2005 at 09:50
Selsdon the cornerstone couldn't hold the key to a door. The reason why they have not declared is probably so that they can vote for Fox to keep out Clarke and then Davis to beat Cameron.
Posted by: wasp | 18 October 2005 at 09:50
That's why it's called the Tombstone Group...
Posted by: Justin Hinchcliffe | 18 October 2005 at 09:53
Dr Fox has failed to win the public backing of many Cornerstone MPs but Geoffrey Cox (no less than the MP of 'our own James Hellyer') endorsed the good doctor overnight.
Good on that man!
Posted by: James Hellyer | 18 October 2005 at 09:57
"Why not now?"
Because I have to write it, Justin!
Posted by: Editor | 18 October 2005 at 09:59
Wasp that's an awful thought, but they don't have the numbers do they? If they eject Clarke, his votes will go to Cameron, which will see a Cameron v Davis or Cameron v Fox run off?
What cornerstone might do, is vote to keep Clarke in, so that it's a Davis v Clarke run off, with the view that the members will elect Davis.
Posted by: michael | 18 October 2005 at 10:01
I've always thought all Summer that Davis wouldn't be leader. Increasingly, I think he's finished, as there seems to be a growing consensus that the man to beat Cameron among the members is Liam Fox.
Posted by: michael | 18 October 2005 at 10:07
Michael
But would the cornerstone-rs want to risk letting Clark in before the membership against Davis?
The YouGov polls of the membership still suggested that Clark would beat Davis if it came down to it, amongst the grassroots… I’ll admit he wouldn’t be nearly as formidable a candidate amongst the membership as would Cameron, but a Davis win over Clark would not be a sure thing. Although in the end I think that the same factors would do for Clark as they did in 2001 against IDS… though I doubt he’d suffer the same kind of landslide defeat that he did four years ago.
Personally I’d like to see a Fox vs Cameron finale, don’t see it happening though…
Posted by: Owenite Adrift | 18 October 2005 at 10:10
Owenite, yes I think you're right, the Davis camp are clearly running out of options. They are facing the prospect that almost any of the contenders are more attractive to members and floating voters than their man. Which is why I think the Davis vote will collapse on Thursday as the right shifts to Fox?
Posted by: michael | 18 October 2005 at 10:23
I have been wrestling with this question: why an MP would bother voting for Davis? In the context of a secret ballot, I think it's plausible that the Davis vote would collapse to Fox today (Davis out, Fox in 1st place). I've backed my wild theory with a punt down at Betfair. It's the same sort of logic that sees me with a magnum of Champagne at every General Election: no matter what happens, I end up happy!
Posted by: Mark Fulford | 18 October 2005 at 10:29
This IS exciting Ed!
And the most exciting thing is I can't work out who you'll be backing!
Posted by: Tom Greeves | 18 October 2005 at 10:30
OK, let's try to guess who the Editor will back. It won't be Ken Clarke. He's unimpressed with DD, though not unsympathetic. He seemed to like DC, but then focused strongly on the drugs issue and has been complaining about lack of substance. He's been a bit quiet on Fox, but Fox most closely represents socially conservative and neo-con views. So as a man of principle, rather than a populist, I would expect the Editor to back Fox.
Posted by: petersmith | 18 October 2005 at 10:44