David Davis: 62 (-4)
David Cameron: 56 (+17)
Ken Clarke: 38 (+12)
Liam Fox: 42 (+19)
(The bracketed figure is the difference between actual support and declared support).
This is a disappointing result for David Davis. His campaign clearly overdeclared and Liam Fox will now make every effort to suggest that he will be a more effective champion of the Right than David Davis. David Cameron has performed very well. About four-fifths of Clarke supporters will transfer their vote to Mr Cameron and he is now almost certain to finish top of the parliamentary ballot.
Great result. DC guaranteed a place in the final - but against Fox or Davis?? Fox would be a far more interesting prospect, IMHO.
Posted by: Henry Cook | 18 October 2005 at 17:39
The symbolism of this result to the party activists and the people of the country is that the MP's don't give a shit what you think.
Posted by: Jaz | 18 October 2005 at 17:40
Cameron / Fox suddenly much more likely.
Posted by: Fox Blogger | 18 October 2005 at 17:42
What a bloody shame.I think Conservative MPs may have made yet another big mistake but we'll see.I hope in the coming weeks the leadership campaigns will concentrate on things other than drugs and that it can be conducted in an open and friendly way and we members can make an informed choice.Remember everybody whatis of paramount importance is that we can pick a leader who can actually win an election.I believed that man was Ken Clarke....
Posted by: malcolm | 18 October 2005 at 17:43
We've still not had a pciture of Michael Ancram with a red cross through it!
A very good result for Dr Fox and David Cameron. An expected result for Ken Clarke.
The question now is whether Davis's underperformance will lead to an atrophy of his support...
Posted by: James Hellyer | 18 October 2005 at 17:47
DC has a guaranteed place so the next vote will be a choice between LF and DD. Tactical voting might move things around. A 'stop DD' group is reputed to exist, and so previous KC's and DC's might choose to vote for LF. Also DD's rightwing (whatever that means these days) who think they are losing the fight might transfer to LF as well. Making the final run-off LF/DC
Posted by: henry curteis | 18 October 2005 at 17:47
Disappointed about Clarke last place. Im not sure who I will support for the next round.
Posted by: James Maskell | 18 October 2005 at 17:48
DD is blaming his drop of support on tactical voting.
Posted by: Editor | 18 October 2005 at 17:48
Well, he was hardly going to say "my campaign stalled."
Posted by: James Hellyer | 18 October 2005 at 17:51
Just heard Fox speak for the first time. The ID Cards viote is happening now, so hes rushed off. Guess we wont hear from Clarke for a while...
I hope the ID Cards bill is defeated.
Posted by: James Maskell | 18 October 2005 at 17:52
I think it's dangerous to assume where Clarke's vote will go. There could even be a small number who go to Davis, however unlikely that might seem.
Posted by: Andy Stidwill | 18 October 2005 at 17:53
V disappointed to see Ken go out. At least we can take satisfaction from the fact Davis is toast. Vive Cameron.
Posted by: Gareth | 18 October 2005 at 17:54
I wouldsupport ID cards if I believed they would actually achieve anything but they won't.
Posted by: malcolm | 18 October 2005 at 17:55
If Ken Clarke thinks he is the most popular and experienced Tory around, why has he spent so many years on the backbenches instead of helping out on the frontbech? I never understood that.
I am happy Fox, Cameron and Davies came through for I really think Clarke's view on Europe and Iraq are unacceptable for a Tory leader.
Posted by: Jacob Traff | 18 October 2005 at 17:57
Now I'm sitting scared that our MPs might engineer a Fox / Davis choice. THAT would be divisive.
Does Kris win the mug?
Posted by: Mark Fulford | 18 October 2005 at 17:57
This is a great day for Dr FOX is the man on the move, 42 votes is about what the Fox camp could expect but significantly Davis has already had a rebellion in the first round.
It's interesting to hear the Davis supporters try to put a brave face on this and suggest he lost votes due to 'tactical voting' - but where did they go? Clarke got about what was expected and they coudn't surely suggest any of them 'tactically' voted for Liam Fox? Whether there was Tactical voting or whether people are just defecting (I'm guessing about 8 defections in total) it's not going to look good for him.
I've always liked Davis a lot and of course I'll be fully behind him if he's in the last 2 against Cameron, but the press seem to really hate him and I think Fox is the better choice to have against Cameron in the final now.
Posted by: Matthew Oxley | 18 October 2005 at 18:03
DD's vote is disapointing but not all that surprising. It seems likely that some of his supporters who have backed Ken in the past would have tried to save their former man from the humiliation that has been inflicted on him. I still think that Davis will make the final ballot.
As for Cameron's level of support, it frankly disgusts me that so many of our MP's have been won over by one pretty speech and a slick media operation.
Posted by: Richard Allen | 18 October 2005 at 18:04
Yeah, A mug! It's like an oscar.
Posted by: kris | 18 October 2005 at 18:05
Clearly David Cameron is the winner today and will be expected to come top on Thursday.
Props to Liam Fox he's established himself as a major player and run an effective campaign.
David Davis must be disappointed, I doubt there was any tactical voting from his core support because of the need to beat that 66 mark. He only needs 5 extra to be secured a place though so stories of his campaign unravelling may be premature.
Posted by: wasp | 18 October 2005 at 18:06
Matthew - I think the tactical voting they are talking about is right wing Davis supporters voting for Fox in order to get rid of Clarke rather than to boost Davis. However, if he really believes his poor showing is totally for that reason he is seriously deluded!
Posted by: RobD | 18 October 2005 at 18:08
I don't think David Davis is the sort of person to endulge in tactical voting, the question is whether the undecided right wingers that have voted for him flake off to Fox.
Either way this is probably not a big deal for DD.
Posted by: wasp | 18 October 2005 at 18:12
David supporters voting Clarke out would be stupid. Clarke was the candidate Davis could have most easily beaten in the country, and his presence split the "moderate vote" so Davis could claim most MPs supported him.
Given that Davis' campaign was already seen to be losing momentum the last thing he needed was to have this happen to him.
Posted by: James Hellyer | 18 October 2005 at 18:12
Davis supporters voting Clarke out would be stupid. Clarke was the candidate Davis could have most easily beaten in the country, and his presence split the "moderate vote" so Davis could claim most MPs supported him.
Given that Davis' campaign was already seen to be losing momentum the last thing he needed was to have this happen to him.
Posted by: James Hellyer | 18 October 2005 at 18:13
It now seems likely that David Cameron will not be stopped by David Davis. The only choice for traditional Conservative MPs who feel that Cameron is too inexperienced and too much of an unknown quantity is to back Liam Fox in Thursday's final ballot.
Posted by: Derek | 18 October 2005 at 18:14
Great result for Cameron and, hopefully, the beginning of an unstoppable momentum.
A real shame for Ken Clarke, who is a top bloke. Hopefully, though, his vote will transfer to Cameron, who is the sensible yet dynamic choice.
Posted by: Barry Graham | 18 October 2005 at 18:17