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« Can David Cameron be stopped? | Main | FT4DC »

Comments

Owenite Adrift

Surprising really… still I don’t expect any of this to stop Clark being the first out on Tuesday with the vast majority of his support switching to “young David”… what is more interesting is what Fox will do assuming he gets into the second round but does not succeed in detaching sufficient right wingers from Davis to get into the final two… while the fact that most of Fox’s support will flow to Davis is undeniable, its still possible that Fox himself would endorse Cameron with whom he has better relations than Davis.

Editor

Hello SDP man. I agree with you. Fox will survive round one but will lose round 2 and then back DC, not DD.

pigmalion

Why should anyone be surprised by anything that happens when the flame of hope is rekindled?

Owenite Adrift

We Owneites are lonely breed these days :( , mostly sitting on the left of the Tory Party or just off its edge… the Labour Party remains far too institutionally authoritarian and too far to the left (is there a problem in society that can’t be solved by more money or a new “program” in the mind of Gordon Brown?) while the LibDem’s have been reduced to an opportunistic aping of “old Labour” in order to win votes…

…at the same time some issues place me to the right of many Owenites, I’m a practising Catholic with the social values that often go along with my faith and I’m an Atlantist as opposed to a pro-European…sooner or later I’ll jump one way or another I suppose.

Matthew Oxley

If you a religious Atlantist then the man for you is Dr Fox - many people 'label' Foxy as being right wing, but this doesnt represent what he actually stands for, this compassionate man would help all people in Britain, protect people's right to faith and bring us closer to America than Europe.

Rick

And there I was thinking the Owenites had been embraced and squeezed dry by Blair........why even Roger Liddle had to move on from No10 to be Peter Mandelson's butler in Brussels

" Fox will survive round one but will lose round 2 and then back DC, not DD."

Round 2 could be closer than you think. LF is not involved in the drugs furore and may pick up floating voters who are dismayed by this week's events.

Max

As a former Tory voter now with the LibDems I really hope for your sake that KC wins. Knowing recent history though, the wrong man will once again take it (ie: anyone but Clarke). It's funny (and slightly embarrassing) seeing so many of you fall for a 15 minute wonder. Only with Clarke will I vote blue again.

James Hellyer

"Only with Clarke will I vote blue again."

That's the sort of remark that sums up what's wrong with British politics. If a change of leader is enough to make you swap your vote, then your attitudes must be entirely superficial. We are not talking about personality cults, but rather political parties. Ken Clarke wouldn't radically change what the party stands for. There might be a difference of emphasis or tone, but no great sea change in policies.

Selsdon Man

"As a former Tory voter now with the LibDems I really hope for your sake that KC wins. "

But would you vote Tory again if Ken wins?

Selsdon Man

Owenite adrift sounds like he is looking for an excuse to join the Conservatives. Go on, do it. After all Danny Finkelstein and his cronies did!

James Hellyer

After all, being a former SDP member isn't a bar to heading up the Conservative Research Department!

Cutting taxes win elections

From my experience, not voting Conservative wasn't a bar to being in Conservative Research Department

James Hellyer

Was it a prerequisite? It would explain a lot.

Adrian Sherman

Liam Fox may back DC if he gets knocked out in the second round, but it won't matter a fig. He'll have just one vote, like the rest of us.

Derek

Personally I thought that David Davis was given a very rough ride by Jonathan Dimbleby. There seemed to be a clear attempt to try to discredit him, by implying that he was criticising David Cameron for not answering the drugs question. Davis actually weathered the storm very well, and when he was asked to lay out his policies, he made it clear that he believed in lower taxes and continuing with the choice agenda in education and the NHS. Over all it was a strong performance.

Bob

James, surely it doesn't matter why voters return to the Conservatives, just that they do !

Why do we seem to need to have political purity from our members and supporters ?

The Lib Dems do pretty well without having purity, ideology or many policies that anyone can actually remember. But they have taken our County Council and have 3 out of 5 MPs in Somerset.

We should stuff purity and concentrate on winning votes. KC is still best placed to do that for us.

Michael Smith

We should stuff purity and concentrate on winning votes.

Seriously, I never understand that sort of assertion. Why should you bother to get a party elected if it ends up not representing any of your own views, values or priorities?

Sean Fear

The Lib Dems do pretty well without having purity, ideology or many policies that anyone can actually remember. But they have taken our County Council and have 3 out of 5 MPs in Somerset.

Today, Somerset, tomorrow the world!

They have 62 MPs, we have 198. They have 40 local councils, we have 150.

I think I'll stick to purity, if that's what opportunism brings.

alexw

I wouldn't be surprised if Clarke squeezed through. Although Fox is running him close, Cornerstone are not going to vote for him (Fox) en bloc (though he can probably count on at least a plurality). Clarke probably has a lot of undeclared support - in 2001, he received more votes from undeclared supporters than declared ones in the final ballot. Lansley and Rifkind are serious figures whose endorsements are major assets: in terms of "big names", Clarke has done pretty well.

Let's just keep our fingers crossed for a Davis meltdown and that wished-for Cameron-Clarke run-off :).

James Hellyer

Clarke vs Cameron?

My Lord. What an awful choice. Clarke it is then...

Richard Allen

A Clarke-Cameron run off simply won't happen. In the event of a Davis meltdown it is a sure thing that Fox will make the final round.

Alexander Drake

"Why should you bother to get a party elected if it ends up not representing any of your own views, values or priorities?"

Even a Conservative leader not from your wing of the Party will still reflect more of your own values and views than not. Your chances of your views getting a hearing are better with a lousy, unsound Conservative government, than the most competent Labour one. Isn't that the principle that motivates Party members at election time, regardless of who the leader is?

I would respectfully suggest that the idea that the leader of a major party will reflect all the views of all its members all the time is slightly unrealistic.

James Hellyer

I would respectfully suggest that the idea that the leader of a major party will reflect all the views of all its members all the time is slightly unrealistic.

Thank you for that false argument, Alexander. As I had not suggested thatthe leader or the party should represent all the views of its members, your reply is magnificently irrelevant.


alexw

Richard, the scenario would unfold as follows: Davis is beaten by Cameron in round one, with Clarke third and Fox fourth. Davis goes into meltdown, with former Clarkeites heading home and the Cameron bandwagon picking up Davis waverers. Fox's vote splits between Cameron and Davis, but this is insufficient to save Davis from a narrow edging out by Clarke, with Cameron miles out front.

It is possible, but admittedly a little far-fetched!

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