Can Fox beat Davis?

"Prepare for a truly brutal battle between Fox and Davis for the precious votes of the Right that will make the difference between a place on the final ballot paper, and an early bath tomorrow afternoon. Dr Fox has the momentum, Mr Davis has the guile."

That's the prediction of Matthew d'Ancona in today's Telegraph.  Whether Fox can hunt down Mr Davis is the most important question over the next 48 hours.

Here are the factors at play:

Was Fox's vote inflated by Eurosceptic tactical voting?  Fox, with 42 votes, received 19 more votes than he had received public declarations.   The Davis campaign is suggesting that tactical voting boosted Dr Fox's vote.  They believe that otherwise undecided Eurosceptics voted for Dr Fox to dump Ken Clarke from the contest.  That belief received some backing when David Healthcoat-Amory admitted to voting for Dr Fox for the sole reason of eliminating the once enthusiastic advocate of the euro and EU constitution.  Did many others do the same?  Such eurosceptics are not going to be attracted to the Davis camp, however, by its suggestion (reported on this morning's Today programme) that DD is the least eurosceptic of the candidates.  This claim is apparently based on DD's refusal to match the other two candidates' pledge (which a DD team member described as "totemic") to take the Tory Party's MEPs out of the federalist EPP.  A core of LF's vote was the Cornerstone Group - safely delivered by John Hayes MP.  They aren't going to desert Dr Fox now.

Who can win most of Ken Clarke's supporters?  My guess is that David Cameron will pick up three-quarters (maybe more) of Clarke's backers.  Ken Clarke's leading supporter - Sir Malcolm Rifkind - has already declared for the 39-year-old education spokesman.  Ken Clarke will almost certainly vote for Mr Cameron and may even declare for him later today.  DD's 'We're the least Eurosceptic' message seems designed to win over a few Clarke backers but is it credible?  Europhile and DD-backer Ian Taylor will be the DD campaign's frontman in the pitch to KC's backers.  The Guardian suggests that the Fox team will deploy the moderate Gary Streeter in its bid to pick up a few Clarke votes.  Mr Streeter is on excellent terms with people like Alistair Burt and David Curry but it will be a tall order for him to attract KC voters to LF's vividly eurosceptic colours.  Senior Fox campaign manager Oliver Heald (a Clarke supporter in 2001) has organised for a number of Clarke supporters to meet Dr Fox today.

Can Liam Fox attract defectors from David Davis?  This will be the doctor's most fertile territory.  Many DD supporters are complaining that their choice appears exhausted and unable to restart his campaign after the Blackpool setbacks.  Adam Holloway has already jumped ship - telling DD on Monday night that he wouldn't be able to back him (although I think he switched to Cameron, not Fox).  At least three other DD supporters either supported other candidates for substantial or tactical reasons in yesterday's ballot.  According to today's Guardian Chris Grayling MP, of the Fox campaign, has said that "the opportunity has now arisen for us to become the champions of the right."

Will DD's careerist backers switch to DC?  Some of DD's early backers probably supported him for reasons more to do with their career prospects than because they had decided Mr Davis was the right man to lead the Conservative Party.  A few MPs might join the Cameron bandwagon in order to improve their chances of becoming Shadow Minister for Administrative Affairs in the Cameron era. 

Who do the grassroots want?  The unscientific poll on this site suggests that the party in the country might prefer a Fox-Cameron showdown to a Davis-Cameron contest.  If MPs are listening to their association members they might be encouraged to switch to Dr Fox.  A better indication of grassroots opinion will come tomorrow when a YouGov survey of Tory members is published by The Telegraph.  Owen Paterson MP, a Fox supporter, is already talking up this factor: " I don't know how Davis can win in the country. There is momentum in the Davis camp, but it is all going in the wrong direction. A Fox-Cameron battle would be really good for the party in the country."

Will DC supporters vote tactically for Fox or Davis?  This is the biggest unknown factor.   DC may get close to 100 votes tomorrow.  He doesn't need all of those votes and some MPs might be 'released' to inflate the vote of the candidate  that they think would be easier to beat in the run-off.  The trouble with that tactic is that the DC camp aren't sure who that easier-to-beat candidate might be.

My prediction is that David Davis will scrape through.  He will progress to the final round as a wounded candidate and one who has failed to find any strong response to the Cameron Phenomenon.   Without something dramatic it is very difficult to see how David Cameron could be beaten.  If Fox fails to progress (which would disappoint me for the reasons stated yesterday) I predict that he will endorse David Cameron.  There are poor personal relations between Dr Fox and Mr Davis.

Make your own predictions for tomorrow's second round by clicking here.

Comments

[Sean Fear]

My view:

"David Cameron is now almost certain to top the MPs' ballot, perhaps with as many as 90 votes. I have no way of knowing whether or not he would be a good leader. He has spoken three times from the front bench in the Commons, and has been an MP for four years. He may be another Pitt the Younger, but the odds must be against it. I am disturbed by the anti-Conservative outlook of at least some of his close supporters, and I think the media hype about his performance has been wildly overblown. We know full well that the media can build you up only to knock you down

David Davis is finished. His campaign stalled completely, and he cannot now claim that he has overwhelming support in the Parliamentary party. Almost certainly, he will win fewer votes on the final ballot than he did yesterday. The media hate him. He is no more than a competent public speaker, and I think he will be slaughtered if he runs off against David Cameron in the members' ballot.

Liam Fox, OTOH, will, at the very least, put up a much better fight in front of the membership. He comes over well on television, can appeal to the membership in a way that David Davis can't, and has the experience that David Cameron lacks. He has been an MP for 13 years, and a front bench spokesman for 7. By common consent, he performed well as Shadow Health Secretary, probably the hardest role for any Conservative when confronting Labour.

Hence, centre right MPs have got to switch to Fox in sufficiently large numbers to get him onto the members' ballot. He really needs the support of about 60 MPs. We really have got to show David Cameron's more politically correct supporters that the Right is a force in the party, and that there is no way we will have things like all-women shortlists and ethnic quotas foisted on us.

[Daniel Vince-Archer]

Although I said it would be difficult for me to choose between David Davis and Liam Fox if Ken Clarke got knocked out, it seems as painfully clear as the area between George Bush's ears that David Cameron will go through to the members' ballot and that David Davis is a busted flush with no hope of beating David Cameron. Therefore I'll be jumping down off the Davis-Fox fence to back Foxy as he's got more chance of stopping Cameron.

[malcolm]

Sean, I'm a little confused.Yesterday Michael Mcgowan said that Cameron supporters had 'contempt for centre right ideas' and today you say 'some of his supporters are anti- Conservative' who,where,when?
Personally I'm genuinely undecided at the moment.I agree with you that I think DD is finished.Of the other 2 I find Liam a more attractive character I think,I just don't know enough about DC.But the fact that people like Rifkind and Letwin two people I have enormous respect for are backing him may make a difference.Conversely the fact that people like Howarth and Leigh are backing Liam does not make him a more attractive proposition.
Still we can't have everything,Bercow backed Clarke my preferred candidate and I think the whole blog agrees on Bercow!

[Sean Fear]

I'll avoid naming Conservative Party members in deference to the 11th Commandment.

But think of DC's media cheerleaders; Alison Pearson, Mary Ann Seighart, Rachel Sylvester, Jackie Ashley, et al. Without exception, people who want the Conservative Party to be cleansed of conservative beliefs, and all of whom believe in feminism as though it was a religion.

I'm sure you can think of some of Cameron's Conservative backers who believe in that sort of guff.

Now Cameron may not believe in any of this, but I really don't know enough about him.

[malcolm]

I hardly think these people can be counted as Cameron supporters.I doubt if many of them even vote Conservative.And no, I can't think of any Conservative MPs (except perhaps the aforementioned Bercow) who are 'anti Conservative'.

[Michael McGowan]

Perhaps I could clarify Sean's and my comments. The politically correct authoritarianism of a number of the modernisers close to Cameron was brought home to me in spades when I attended the first CChange meeting behind closed doors at Storey's Gate. Bear in mind that my own politics tend towards the libertarian centre-right so instinctively, I would have been supportive. In fact, I came away repelled. For obvious reasons, I am naming no names but the people in question regard ordinary members of the Conservative Party as by definition racist, sexist and homophobic vermin. They seemed very keen to take over the Conservative Party by coup d'etat, to pick a fight with the voluntary party and certain MPs and to impose their own narrow dogma in a very public way. A purge is what they perceive as a "Clause 4" moment. They certainly do not buy into the idea of the Conservative Party as a broad church with ordinary members have any meaningful say in its running. How very New Labour.

Even less do they perceive the Conservative Party as being in the business of offering a real alternative to Labour. Strip away the glossy PR and the cliches and you will find a group of people who (a) hunger for the spoils of power and have done since Oxford in the 1980's; and (b) accept the left's perspective on UK domestic affairs, subject to minor tinkering at the margins.

[Innocent Abroad]

Editor - Let us hope for Liam Fox's sake that you are quite wrong in the claim you make about him in your last paragraph. For if Fox would prefer Cameron to Davis, what sense is there in anti-Cameron MPs switching from Davis to Fox?

[Mark Fulford]

I hope that Fox and Cameron survive. We have to work on the basis that the members might choose either of the candidates they're offered and, as a Cameroon, I'd prefer a close Fox / Cameron run-off to any chance of Davis being leader.

[The Political Thinker]

Innocent Abroad,

I think Editor is right. Liam Fox, if knocked out, will back Cameron over Davis. Also, just think about who Liam backed in 2001 compared with who Davis backed.

[lambo]

DD should stay strong and not panic. He is still the candidate that has offered the best range of Conservative policies, and the firmest policies at that. Cornerstone very predictably backing Dr Fox, and DC picking up Clarke voters shouldn't worry him, he'll still be the best candidate able to offer the Party a guiding programme for renewal and re-election.

He does have to overcome certain media bias against him, much of which is purely public school snobbery against a south-east accent ( and what better reference can there be than the BBC's constant harping against him).

[Ted]

Lambo - he's not the guy for renewal or re-election. I know I'll be leapt on but we need softer face to lead us - not another hard man. I personally I prefer Fox's policies to Cameron's (such as they are) but either will do - we need a leader who is generationally seperated from the Tory party from the inheritance of the Major years - so please not David Davis . My abiding memory of our last government is sitting on a beach in Southern England watching families packing up to go home, some people in tears, as news of massive rises in interest rates to support our ERM membership were reported on the radio news - good, probably Tory, voters facing financial peril because of the actions of a Tory government - and no Tory leader since then has escaped that burden. Parties get back into power usualy on the "its time for a change message" - DD doesn't look like a change - what really differentiates him from our last three leaders?

[Daniel Vince-Archer]

"My abiding memory of our last government is sitting on a beach in Southern England watching families packing up to go home, some people in tears, as news of massive rises in interest rates to support our ERM membership were reported on the radio news - good, probably Tory, voters facing financial peril because of the actions of a Tory government"

Please remind me who was special adviser {sic? - is it advisor?} to the Chancellor at this time and who was firing off memos to the PM presenting the case for Britain rejoining the ERM?

[Ted]

better that one sinner repents.....

Ken Clarke invited Oswald Mosely for a second time as a speaker at Cambridge forcing Michael Howard to resign...is Ken then a closet fascist? It really doesn't matter what an eager to impress young advisor did more than a decade ago- it's what he intends to do. I'd prefer Dr Fox but I'll take Cameron rather than Davis.

[Mark Fulford]

public school snobbery against a south-east accent

Lambo, how do you justify that?

[Mark Fulford]

Daniel, the Cameron way of spelling it is "adviser". The Fox way is "advisor".

[malcolm]

Michael,I find your comments amazing.Are you serious?It seems strange to me that people of the calibre of Oliver Letwin & Malcolm Rifkind would support people who believe in what you allege.Even stranger people like Douglas Carswell & Bernard Jenkin who are from the right of the party are hardly likely to support people who hate ordinary party workers and believe them 'racist,sexist,homophobic vermin'.Do you think everyone has been duped?

[Daniel Vince-Archer]

"Ken Clarke invited Oswald Mosely [sic] for a second time as a speaker at Cambridge forcing Michael Howard to resign...is Ken then a closet fascist?"

Interesting straw man there Ted. Did Ken advise that we should become fascists and fire off memos to the PM presenting the argument for doing so? No.

"It really doesn't matter what an eager to impress young advisor did more than a decade ago."

Even when his advice contributed to what you say is your abiding memory of our last government? Has Cameron since specifically rebutted the advice he gave back then and admitted his poor judgement? And if New Labour won't dig their old favourite out from their bag of dirty tricks (exploiting the past to smear their opponent), then I'm the Queen of Sheba.

"It's what he intends to do."

What, specifically, does he intend to do though?

[Michael McGowan]

I can only report what I heard and as I said, my instincts from the outset were pro not anti. I remain to be convinced that they have mended their ways.

[Ted]

Well then let's beef up the reasearch dept to find the right answers to likely smears - I'm sure Cameron could easily quote Blair/Brown support for the ERM - seem to recall Labour used it as a weapon against Thatcher when she didn't want to join.
As someone who's politics are more on the Fox/DD side I find it strange defending the modernisers but I'm tired of watching Blair/Brown use our language, mis-present our policies and want the opportunity to see a Conservative Government, with conservative values, implement some of our policies. DD won't win against Brown - no charisma, too easy to pillory as hard right - and Dr Fox would probably also be pushed back to "core values" - I want to see the cities voting Tory again and perhaps that means putting up with "re-branding" and a more authoritarian approach - trying the other way hasn't worked very well has it?

[Derek]

Michael, You must name some names, or else you are damning every "moderniser" with the same brush. Anyway it's David Cameron himself that we need to understand here, and those very close to him. Wasn't C-Change associated with Francis Maude?

Who did Fox and Davis back in 2001,political thinker?

[henry curteis]

Cameron's a Mistake

Conservative MP's seem to be running away with the idea that Cameron is a potential election winner - Blair style appealing outside the limits of previous Conservative voters. But this story just doesn't wash. The reason Blair worked in winning previous Conservative voters was because he seemed more like a Conservative. Cameron will not pull Labour voters full stop. He's an Etonian, he speaks posh. He's classic Tory material. His only policies so far mentioned are right wing (or would be seen as that). How will that appeal to previous Labour/Lib Dem voters defeats me.

Fox has broader appeal than Cameron by far coming from a simpler background. His policies are more likely to appeal across all parties and to floating voters. I think Tory MP's have got their wires crossed - after a fortnight's excitement in the media about David Cameron's drug refusal. They were so grateful for a little bit of coverage, it's gone right to their heads - maybe the beer in Blackpool added to the confusion! It's time they woke up and saw the light -before they commit themselves to an unelectable opposite of the Blair phenomenon. A Conservative Blair would have to come from the wrong side of the tracks or lower down the social hierarchy than Cameron. Mrs T was no aristocrat and she pulled a few votes here and there. Wake up MP's please.

[john Skinner]

"Cameron's people think Tories are sexist, racist and homophobic,etc. And think the party should should have all-women short-lists and ethnic quotas."
Really? I think Alastair Campbell must have sent in one or two of the above entries.

[john Skinner]

"Cameron's people think Tories are sexist, racist and homophobic,etc. And think the party should should have all-women short-lists and ethnic quotas."
Really? I think Alastair Campbell must have sent in one or two of the above entries.

[john Skinner]

"Cameron's people think Tories are sexist, racist and homophobic,etc. And think the party should should have all-women short-lists and ethnic quotas."
Really? I think Alastair Campbell must have sent in one or two of the above entries.

[wasp]

The anti-Cameron's were sending some pretty nasty stuff around the House today about candidates selection.

I think the best thing would be Cameron vs Davis, the most popular with the MPs and the most popular in the country.

In my constituency everyone seems to be pro-Cameron.

Liam Fox is just the traditional barking horse candidate. Someone that does well because they come from nowhere. A fad that should have ended with the pisspoor Iain Duncan Smith.