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« When Tony Blair met Tory Blair | Main | Third-placed candidate could legally challenge coronation »


Tim Roll-Pickering

If I remember correctly, a poll at the equivalent point in 2001 gave quite an accurate prediction of the eventual result.

Since Liam Fox is so keen to emanate George W. Bush and US politics in general, will he seek to allow us to know the winner before every vote is counted?


Yes, Tim R-P. YouGov (again in The Telegraph) got the 2001 result exactly right - predicting the scale of IDS' victory.


It's excellent news for you, Editor, that the Telegraph poll is so close to your own poll - in the scheme of things, 58-31-10 (plus some 'don't knows, I suppose) is broadly similar to 59-18-15. Your poll on the leadership changes was also very close to the actual result in thge vote. It means that your audience here is similar to the membership as a whole - not, as some have suggested, a 'right-wing site'.

So you're pretty well qualified to go out and speak for us as you have done over the last few days on the radio and tv! Keep it up!

Marion Burdon

if David Cameron wins and not Liam Fox, me and my husband will have to continue to vote U.K.I.P.
At least we know what they believe.
Liam Fox gave me some hope that the party will not be afraid to say what it believes once more (even if some hate it).
Because many will love it, and are indeed waiting for that...
the last time we had that was pre. John Major.
That was when I stopped voting Conservative, after he got in.
Things have never been the same since.
Can't people see that Tory votes have been lost because they have not been making a clear stand on many issues?
I so love the balance of Liam Fox, his commitment to mental health issues is vital for this country.. (I trained as a psychiatric nurse and also worked with MIND)
Read about the Karen people in Burma, what has been done to them.
Dr. Fox is right to draw our attention to that....
and yes, we are a broken society...I live in B'ham's inner's all around.


One problem I have is the way YouGov overweights women in its results by scaling up its raw data. It always strikes me as being a yuppie sample with a geography focused on the south.

Tim Roll-Pickering

But YouGov is routinely closer to the actual result than many other sampling methods...

Oberon Houston

It is a pity that some vote UKIP, that’s their prerogative though. However for the Conservative party, it is imperative that they provide the Country with a credible centre-right alternative in politics.

In Scotland the failure of the Conservative Party to achieve this in the last 40 years (incredible isn’t it, but it is true) has led to an unchallenged and permanent socialist and Left-Wing agenda that has proved extremely unhealthy for Scotland. This once great Country is now the most violent in the developed world, has gone from world leader in heavy industry and innovation, but today there is no significant remaining manufacturing base, it has a bad business environment, is heavily dependant on a subsidised public sector, continues to deteriorate through debilitating regulation via Holyrood, has a falling population, a skills exodus and there is currently a campaign in overseas tourist brochures to get visitors to stay in Scotland permanently. Who is to blame for this? Labour? Or is it the Conservative Party for failing to give the people of Scotland a credible alternative?

For the Conservatives to embrace out of touch right wing policies would be disastrous for Britain. UKIP is a small price to pay.


This thread shouldn't become a debate about YouGov, Rick, but again and again it keeps getting election results right. I believe that a fundamental part of its strength is that people are more honest when being asked questions on the internet than in face-to-face or via phone polling.

henry curteis


Tim Roll-Pickering

As we always suspected YouGov cannot help but rig its results a tad just to make someone happy - usually someone paying them.

I know it's traditional for Conservatives to have their heads in the sand when confronted by opinion poll evidence, but come off it! YouGov has a reputation for accuracy and a strong track record - it's not going to throw that away on a bribe.

James Hellyer

Opinion polls offer a picture of current opinion. Like share prices, those opinions can change.

Tim Roll-Pickering

Yes but Henry is not arguing that, he's disputing the poll even reflects those polled in the first place!

James Maskell

The reason for Cameron being the first choice is because hes a blank sheet basically and is young. The members only know him through a single speech and refusing to answer questions about drugs. The Guardian today declares that hes been a columnist for 3 years but to be honest that doesnt explain what he believes.

We are a fickle lot, are we...


I do not know whether youGov is right or not but they have as the Editor says established a good reputation for accuracy.My own experience when canvassing Conservative councillors for Clarke was quite revealing.Davis was well ahead of Fox amongst that group.Fox in fact was not backed by any of them.I know it's not scientific but it does show that there is little evidence to suggest that Fox is miles ahead of Davis amongst members.

James Hellyer

Little evidence other than the YouGov poll - and this site's poll, Malcolm.


Like share prices, those opinions can change

Look at bottom right of this page - have these really changed much in 14 years?
Cameron is untested, policies not really known but he does seem to have the promise of something different. He has shown a surprising ability to stand in front of people and change their minds - whether on Newsnight, at the conference or in the last three weeks among the MPs. I think DD might just win through but move towards Fox in membership reflects the more right amongst us recognising DD is damaged beyond repair.

Selsdon Man

"As we always suspected YouGov cannot help but rig its results a tad just to make someone happy".

Henry, that is a very serious, and possibly actionable, allegation that I suggest you withdraw.

Marion, a vote for UKIP is a vote to keep Labour in power. You talk about so many issues, mental health, human rights etc So why continue to vote for UKIP, a Party obsessed with one issue; Europe?!

Though if you haven't voted Conservative since 1987, I'd suggest you aren't part of the 10% of voters we need to win back to form a Government as we did in 1992.

But if you share our values of freedom, tolerance and opportunity please think again and come home to the Conservative Party.

Oberon Houston

As Editor says, YouGov has been remarkably accurate in predicting results. However, here is a suggestion, lets not jump the gun and leave debate on the member vote until after the MPs decide tonight? Can we do another prediction?

DC:114 DD:32 LF:52

oh oh, can we talk about whether LF would stand aside please.

James Hellyer

Dr Fox wouldn't stand aside. If he comes second, that would show his campaign has a momentum that he'd hope to carry to the country.

Oberon Houston

I think your right. He won't.

Oberon Houston

Caneron needs to be carefull. The threat to him from Fox in a member vote is very high!


Fox is a bit of a threat because he is also not very well known and tories might like to compromise by going for someone who is a bit charismatic and a bit experienced.

But in reality who doesn't pack a killer punch in any area.


Editor, I have always been sceptical of YouGov since I first signed up on their board. Anthony Wells had a very good blog during the election and I read up elsewhere on weights its raw data with a demographic that stresses women and certain age groups.

The problem with accuracy is that the Tories win seats in the South East and share them with LibDems in the Southwest and let Labour have London, the Midlands, North, Scotland, Wales and the chances of the Tories ever having Unionists back in the fold is zero.

So I don't see why you have to do more than poll seats within a defined geography to get an accurate fix on Tory votes. They are piled up in a few seats and elsewhere the LibDem vote keeps them at No3 or No4.

Stop taking drug stuff

IO dont have anting against drug takers, and i don't thinking taking drugs should rule you out but i am fed up with the way some "cool dudes" turn the argument around to say if you don't take drugs your too square. . I am fed up with the way all these political scum bags say you are almost sinner if you DONT drugs will piss of to the facists drug addicts who want us all to take drugs or else where square and boring. If that is the type who gets far in politcis then piss of to politicians. Mr Cameron and his buddy should stop saying is is wierd to not take cannabuis. I got caled wiered by bullying thugs and i don't want that type of thug to be running this nation.

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