It is increasingly unclear if the next Tory leader will be chosen by MPs only. Today's Telegraph reports Francis Maude warning of disaster if one-third of constitutional convention members decide to reject Michael Howard's disenfranchisement proposals (as most think they might).
But the votes of MPs will still matter even if we keep the one-member-one-vote system. MPs will have to thin the field of candidates to two - as they did last time with their IDS and Ken Clarke choice.
It's been a long time since I produced a 'Who's backing who?' list and I've been told that it should be 'Who's backing whom?'. Apologies to all!
I now intend to update this page on a rolling basis (and have added an easy-to-see link in the right-hand margin to always show the latest tally). Today's list (of firm backers) is very similar to yesterday's Times list but I have additionally got Philip Davies in DD's column and Julian Brazier declared for the Shadow Home Secretary yesterday. David Davis' rolling thunder process of endorsements is clearly underway.
More speculatively I would expect Henry Bellingham and James Paice to be additional Rifkind backers. Stephen Dorrell, John Greenway, Michael Jack, Andrew Lansley, Michael Mates and Sir George Young are all likely to back Ken Clarke. Nicholas Soames and Peter Viggers may both endorse David Cameron (mistake corrected after visitor 'Selsdon Man' spotted inconsistency). There is certainly a real danger for DC that Clarke could move into second place in the next couple of weeks and he will do that with people who supported him in '01.
David Davis (31)
- Richard Bacon
- Graham Brady
- Julian Brazier
- Derek Conway
- David Davies
- Philip Davies
- David Davis
- Nadine Dorries
- Jonathan Djanogly
- Nigel Evans
- Eric Forth
- Roger Gale
- Paul Goodman
- Damian Green
- Philip Hammond
- Nick Herbert
- David Jones
- Julie Kirkbride
- Greg Knight
- John Maples
- Patrick Mercer
- Andrew Mitchell
- Eric Pickles
- David Ruffley
- Lee Scott
- Richard Spring
- Ian Taylor
- Shailesh Vara
- Peter Viggers
- Bill Wiggin
- David Wilshire
David Cameron (12)
- Tony Baldry
- Greg Barker
- Richard Benyon
- David Cameron
- Michael Gove
- Boris Johnson
- Oliver Letwin
- Peter Luff
- George Osborne
- Andrew Robathan
- Hugo Swire
- Ed Vaizey
Kenneth Clarke (10)
- John Bercow
- Alistair Burt
- Kenneth Clarke
- David Curry
- John Gummer
- Anthony Steen
- Andrew Tyrie
- Robert Walter
- Ann Widdecombe
- Tim Yeo
Liam Fox (8)
- Liam Fox
- Chris Grayling
- Justine Greening
- Greg Hands
- Oliver Heald
- Eleanor Laing
- Daniel Kawczynski
- Stephen O’Brien
Sir Malcolm Rifkind (5)
- Crispin Blunt
- Peter Bottomley
- Jacqui Lait
- Andrew Pelling
- Sir Malcolm Rifkind
David Willetts (4)
- Charles Hendry
- Mark Hoban
- David Lidington
- David Willetts
On both declared and undeclared supporter figures, both of the supposed main challengers to Davis are on a level pegging with Doctor Fox.
Clearly his relatively low media profile has made him seem less of a prospect, despite having the same number of backers. Maybe now he's trashed soap opera politics and stood up for party democracy, he'll get more attention and eclipse the increasingly desperate looking Cameron.
Posted by: James Hellyer | 02 September 2005 at 18:20
Desperate looking Cameron?!, when he started he was one of a number of modernisers and not one of the best known, he has seen off the others and is still very much in the race. The only momentum Dr Fox has so far is on this blog.
Posted by: AnotherNick | 02 September 2005 at 20:18
Then please explain why Cameron and Fox have the same number of declared and "undeclared" backers...
Posted by: James Hellyer | 02 September 2005 at 23:54
I seem to remember Viggers (this week) and Greenaway publicly backing Davis. I will look through my cuttings.
Posted by: Selsdon Man | 03 September 2005 at 12:15
The Editorial says that Viggers that is likely to back Cameron but he is listed as a Davis supporter.
Posted by: Selsdon Man | 03 September 2005 at 12:18
With apologies - Peter Viggers should be in the Davis list and not as a potential Cameron backer.
Posted by: Editor | 03 September 2005 at 12:25
Likely Clarke supporters include John Butterfill, James Clappison, Quentin Davies, Christopher Fraser, Douglas Hogg,John Horam, Michael Jack, Robert Key, Michael Mates, Malcolm Moss, Patrick McLoughlin, Anne McIntosh, Richard Ottaway and Keith Simpson.
Nick Hurd may back either Clarke or Cameron.
Posted by: Selsdon Man | 03 September 2005 at 12:41
Liam had all those backers pretty much on day one and his total is eight while Cameron's is twelve. Liam Fox was high profile before but the press don't care about him and to be honest until yesterday he didn't say anything to make them care. He is, though, a valid candidate. Your assertion that Cameron is on his way out is premature at best. Cameron started as an unknown, and has earned endorsements from journalists and MPs. True Ken might have overshadowed him and everyone else this week, but Cameron is much stronger now than he was at the election, I don't think Liam Fox is any better off.
Posted by: AnotherNick | 03 September 2005 at 13:43
I can't remember his recognition factor in the polls, but Fox should be well known as he was the partys face on tv for quite a while.
Who would he endorse if he pulled out I wonder?
Posted by: Samuel Coates | 03 September 2005 at 14:16
AnotherNick, I refer you to their undeclared support as stated in The Times: " Mr Clarke 25 to 30, Mr Cameron 25 to 30 and Dr Fox 20 to 30."
Cameron has had the advantage of being identified as the stop-Davis candidate early on. It's also suited the media to present it as a Davis-Cameron run off. Ken Clarke standing changes all that, as a lot of his supporters were previously inclined to Cameron. That this has Cameron hard was apparent from both his hurried reponse to the Clarke launch, his lurch to the right, and the immediate call of papers like the Mail that he stands aside.
The longer a Clarke candidacy drags on for, the more chance there is that Cameron will no longer be seen as the stop-Davis candidate. Those MPs will head to Clarke, while the stop Clarke movement backs Davis.
Until now, Dr Fox has achieved a similar level of support to Cameron and Clarke without campaigning. He's been the only one who has seemed to follow Howard's intentions for the extended contest, by focussing on what our convictions should be.
After his explosive contribution on "soap opera politics" last Sunday, and with him now backing members retaining their voting rights, he should be able to gain some momentum, not least because he doesn't appear to have the large anti-votes that dog Davis, Cameron and Clarke.
Posted by: James Hellyer | 03 September 2005 at 14:49
It is a key time for Cameron, but he's still very much in this. Dr Fox needs to actually show he wants the job!
I do agree with James in so much as so far we haven't seen a "stop-Fox" campaign in the way there seems to be with Davis, Cameron & Clarke and that may prove significant.
Posted by: AnotherNick | 03 September 2005 at 14:56
What happend to Liam Fox's launch, if it's been I can't find coverage. So I'm thinking is it this evening? For someone with "40" backers I'd expected more fuss.
Posted by: AnotherNick | 06 September 2005 at 17:46
I understand the News of the World got the day wrong and every other source copied the error.
It should be Thursday.
Posted by: James Hellyer | 06 September 2005 at 18:04
Cheers, it did seem odd that there was no coverage.
Posted by: AnotherNick | 06 September 2005 at 18:09
Yes: it is Thursday.
Posted by: Editor | 07 September 2005 at 07:07