Ken Clarke's repositioning on the euro and with regard to his business interests hasn't impressed the betting fraternity. Earlier today William Hill reported "very little recent support for Ken Clarke who is still freely available at 10/1 to succeed Michael Howard as leader of the opposition". Noting that David Davis was "the red hot 1/3 odds-on favourite with David Cameron the 4/1 second favourite", Hill's spokesman said:
"The money, and therefore the odds, paint a pretty grim picture for Ken Clarke and his supporters, as they suggest that he is well off the pace of the two frontrunners Cameron and Davis. The only good news we can give Ken Clarke and his supporters is that in the last two leadership contests the original favourite (in this case Davis) have not been the eventual winners."
Hill's full list of odds are: "D Davis 1/3, D Cameron 4/1, M Rifkind 10/1, K Clarke 10/1, L Fox 12/1, W Hague 16/1, G Osborne 25/1, A Lansley 25/1, D Willetts 33/1, A Duncan 33/1, T Yeo 40/1, J Bercow 50/1, T May 66/1, O Letwin 66/1".
The bookies are not often wrong. However, I would make Clarke second favourite. He still has a lot of supporters, particularly the older generation, in the House.
Clarke's main threat is Malcolm Rifkind who is attractive to the same group. It is possible that Rifkind could take valuable support from Clarke to the benefit of Cameron.
Today's speech by Cameron on terrorism and Islam is an attempt to pick up supporters from the right. This indicates that he is not confident of attracting the older centre-left votes.
Cameron may be trying to portray himself as a Bush style candidate - compassionate conservatism with a robust foreign policy. Can he attract the Cornerstone supporters? with Ken Clarke becoming more Eurosceptic, it will be easier for Cameron to make similar statements to attract the social conservatives.
Posted by: Selsdon Man | 24 August 2005 at 14:58
Clarke's main threat is Malcolm Rifkind who is attractive to the same group. It is possible that Rifkind could take valuable support from Clarke to the benefit of Cameron.
Today's speech by Cameron on terrorism and Islam is an attempt to pick up supporters from the right. This indicates that he is not confident of attracting the older centre-left votes.
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