This week’s Economist thinks that the Tory leadership race may be coming to life and that a clear choice may be emerging.
Its Bagehot column believes that “only the Davids – Davis, Willetts and Cameron – should be taken seriously” in the race to succeed Michael Howard. It dismisses Ken Clarke because of his “fanatical Europeanism, age and uncertain appetite for opposition”.
The Economist is encouraged by David Davis’ ’Mr Reform’ speech of Monday. Attributing Mr Davis’ ideas of public service choice and lower taxation to the “fiercely free-market think-tank” Reform, it writes:
”Mr Davis’s intention is plain. He is sounding a trumpet for politics as ideological combat. Tony Blair’s attempts at market-based reform of public services count for nothing. Practical difficulties are brushed aside. Mr Davis has a compass and it is pointing him out into clear blue water.”
In contrast David Cameron has said that it is “crazy” to exaggerate the differences between the Tories and Labour:
”Some Conservatives say that what we need is 'clear blue water' between ourselves and Labour. I think that's crazy. I came into politics to do the right thing and make a difference. I didn't come into politics to engage in some positioning exercise. Imagine if the doctrine of 'clear blue water' applied in the commercial world. You're a supermarket chain up against Tesco, who's offering 'good food at low prices.' I know: we'll offer 'bad food at high prices.' It's no different in politics.”
The Economist expresses interest in the commitments of the Davids Cameron and Willetts to address “family breakdown, rampant individualism [and] the cycle of deprivation that condemns many people to persistent poverty.”
It concludes - like The Sun and London Evening Standard - that the race is now between the “charming” and “colloquial” David Cameron and David Davis – “whose support is noisy but not yet deep”.
Why do people keep uncritically citing David Cameron's Aunt Sally about "clear blue water"?
People who talk about clear blue water, don't do so for the sake of differentiation, as in his ridiculous example, but because they believe in different things to Labour.
Posted by: James Hellyer | 08 July 2005 at 12:56
"the race is now between the “charming” and “colloquial” David Cameron and David Davis – “whose support is noisy but not yet deep”.
This is the key - there has been a phoney war for a couple of months, but neither of the 2 hares has established himself as the obvious choice. Other animals might be spending more time on the hunt in the undergrowth at the moment, rather than out in the media field where we can see their every move.
We really must not allow the media to restrict our choice to these two - both have obvious weaknesses, and another candidate might yet trump them.
Posted by: Simon C | 08 July 2005 at 13:15
Well, it's clear from the "who's supporting who" posts, that neither Davis or Cameron, especially Cameron, has really broken away from the pack.
Posted by: James Hellyer | 08 July 2005 at 14:20
The MPs voting means that Davis or Clarke are the only ones that need to break away from the pack. If it goes to the last round then whichever of Cameron or Fox is left will become a stop-Davis/Clarke candidate and win by a mile.
Posted by: Edward | 08 July 2005 at 14:36
But the Clarke vote is split with Lansley and Rifkind. I'm not sure if they all run, if any of them is ahead of Fox or Cameron. I also suspect that they undermine Cameron's campaign most.
Obviously Davis is in the lead - he's been campaigning for the job since '97, after all - but I still think there's all to play for.
Posted by: James Hellyer | 08 July 2005 at 14:39
I've said it before, but I simply must say it again (just in case you missed it): Cameron's lines -
"Imagine if the doctrine of 'clear blue water' applied in the commercial world. You're a supermarket chain up against Tesco, who's offering 'good food at low prices.' I know: we'll offer 'bad food at high prices.' It's no different in politics.”"
- prove he's either stupid or insincere. Offering an alternative to Labour is not the same as offering an automatic opposite.
He must think the people listeing to him are really stupid if he considers that a crowning argument. It's not even a decent debating trick. Who is it that keeps saying how 'clever' he's supposed to be?
Nor have I seen the charm, nor has he any experience of the world outside politics and PR. I'm still not completely convinced about DD, but I'm quite certain that Cameron is a twit.
Posted by: buxtehude | 08 July 2005 at 14:44
Cameron's comments remind me of what some wag said about our election slogans:
"Af if any party is going to run on a platform consisting of
- Fewer police
- Dirtier Hospistals
- School disorder
- Higher taxes
- Unaccountability"
Posted by: James Hellyer | 08 July 2005 at 14:58
That's right, James - a statement which cannot reasonably be contradicted is not worth making.
The reason this strikes me as SO important is because it shows Cameron's fundamental weakness, his fear of saying anything that has edge. It means he would rely entirely on being 'nicer' than Brown.
Apart from being a losing strategy (at least until Labour are very unpopular by virtue their own performance), this has a further profound implication. By thereby reducing politics to a whimsy, the rest of the Conservative Party is turned into nothing more than a platform for the vanity of the Notting Hill Tories. Other MPs, officers and party members will exist only as mirrors for Narcissus.
But if we have a mission, a definable purpose, then we have a proper reason to belong, to work as a team.
At least DD, at the beginning of the week, said something definite. He said we need lower taxes, and we need to reform public services by allowing competing providers. You may or may not agree - but at least there's a mission. It's not pursuing power just for the fun of it.
Posted by: buxtehude | 08 July 2005 at 16:46
The Economist gave Davis a good dissing three weeks ago, and its strong statist instincts naturally lead it to support Cameron. Sad for an organ that used to be so dependably and radically in favour of small government.
With the Times and the Spectator clearly also for Cameron, then of the traditional Tory press, it seems only the Torygraph itself is standing up for DD.
The metropolitan politico/media bubble is such a very narrow world.
Posted by: Wat Tyler | 08 July 2005 at 17:15
Like the Times these days, the Economist always wants to be on the winning side. The Bagehot column seems to be written most weeks by Tony Blair himself.....so it's hardly surprising that it is hostile to a politician such as David Davis who has no time for the ingrown conceits and prejudices of the Westminster Bubble.
Cameron's reported comments on "clear blue water" struck me as juvenile. Or does he really think that Labour's performance in Government is akin to Tesco offering good food at low prices? I would have thought that the main criticism of Labour is that it has provided bad government at high, and rising prices.
Posted by: Michael McGowan | 08 July 2005 at 18:39
Could it be that the reason most of the Tory press are backing Cameron is because there sick and tired of seeing the party they support keep on losing and think that Cameron is the best hope of leading the party back to power.
Personally I suspect that why there not backing Davis along with most of the party`s leadership is because they see having yet another right-wing leader running on another right-wing platform is going to lead to yet another defeat.
Posted by: Jack Stone | 09 July 2005 at 14:53
Jack- forgive my ignorance, but is this (http://www.lego.com/fourplus/games/savestheday/index.asp) you?
You may be right about the 'Tory press'. Still, most of them will jump on the bandwagon once Davis starts bringing us success.
Just watch 'em.
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