Who's backing who?

This occasional new feature will try and keep track of which MPs are backing which candidates. In the nature of dealing with the Tory parliamentary party (the world’s least trustworthy electorate) there is nothing certain about the names listed below. Even people who declare for candidates can change their minds or secretly vote for someone else.

There will also be mistakes on this list and please email me at [email protected] if you know of an error or if your own MP has told you how he/she intends to vote. I will then update the list as and when I receive enough new information.

David Davis has the most personal backers at this stage but the vast majority of MPs have neither declared nor decided. That is the view of the three MPs who helped me prepare this list.

Unfortunately I have been unable to identify a single backer for Theresa May or Alan Duncan. This does not mean that there are none – only none are identifiable at this stage. Given that I’ve only identified the voting intentions/ inclinations of a third of the parliamentary party the numbers assigned to each candidate are very much on the low side.

It was also difficult to disentangle supporters of Ken Clarke, Andrew Lansley and Sir Malcolm Rifkind and so I’ve identified these as the ‘CLR block’. If Clarke or Lansley stand they are likely to get a high proportion of this block’s votes. If Sir Malcolm stands he will get a much smaller share of the block.

David Davis (25)

Richard Bacon, Henry Bellingham, Graham Brady, Derek Conway, Philip Davies, David Davis, Jonathan Djanogly, Nigel Evans, Eric Forth, Roger Gale, Paul Goodman, Damian Green, John Greenway, Philip Hammond, Nick Herbert, Julie Kirkbride, Greg Knight, John Maples, Andrew Mitchell, Andrew Murrison, Richard Spring, Ian Taylor, Peter Viggers, Bill Wiggin, David Wilshire.

David Cameron (7)

David Cameron, Michael Gove, Michael Howard, Boris Johnson, Oliver Letwin, George Osborne, Ed Vaizey.

Liam Fox (6)

Chris Grayling (campaign manager), Justine Greening, Greg Hands, Oliver Heald, Eleanor Laing, Stephen O’Brien

David Willetts (4)

Charles Hendry, Mark Hoban, David Lidington (campaign manager), David Willetts.

Clarke-Lansley-Rifkind (29)

Peter Ainsworth, James Arbuthnot, Tony Baldry, Richard Benyon, Crispin Blunt (Rifkind’s campaign manager), Alistair Burt, Kenneth Clarke, David Curry, John Gummer, John Horam, Nick Hurd, Michael Jack, Robert Key, Jacqui Lait, Andrew Lansley, Anne McIntosh, Anne Milton, Malcolm Moss, Richard Ottaway, James Paice, Sir Malcolm Rifkind, Keith Simpson, Nicholas Soames, Anthony Steen, Andrew Tyrie, Robert Walter, Ann Widdecombe, Tim Yeo, Sir George Young.

Comments

[Becker]

We know (not officially of course) who Michael Howard is backing, but it would be interesting to find out who Hague and IDS will eventually go for. Any ideas?

[Rocco]

Very interesting. And a very tangled web!

If all 7 candidates run (and assuming that the other 128 MPs not 'declared' vote proportionally to this which they probably won't!) then you can't look beyond a runaway victory for Davis. However if, which is more likely, at least one of the CLR block drops out I am not so sure it would necessarily strengthen the other one/two and someone like Cameron could see their status enhanced, which in turn could pull some backers away from Davis.

As often with the favourite in leadership contests he may have also peaked quite early.

Scanning the names also its worth noting some of the missing names that could make a massive difference.

IDS, Hague, Redwood, Lilley, Dorrell, Ancram, Maude are not listed here and are all either influencial or think they are. I wouldn't expect many of these to be falling over themselves to vote for David Davis for leader.

Am expecting a few twists and turns yet!

[James Hellyer]

Doesn't Liam Fox support the Liam Fox bid?

[Editor]

Oops. Good spot, James. That moves LF up to 7!

[buxtehude]

Maude, as Party Chairman, obviously can't declare himself for anyone. But then again, he doesn't need to: he's Party Chairman for Cameron.

[William Norton]

How robust is the assumption that leadership candidates would vote for themselves? Given all that we know and love of these people, I wouldn't put it past one of them to double-cross himself and vote for someone else....

(Second thoughts: this isn't such a daft idea after all. Are we confident that none of these are "spoiler candidates" standing covertly on behalf of Mr X in order to undercut support for Mr Y? Where's George Smiley when you need him,eh?)

[Wat Tyler]

Excellent idea Ed.

I'll be amazed if you manage to get above 100 in terms of heads above parapets. And my guess is that some of those you have identified have already complained.

But definitely worth watching and filing away.

[D&D]

Still 3 months to gobefore the official contest begins. By August we should know exactly whose voting for who.
On a serious note it does highlight how early we are into this contest, I think it is dangerous when Mr. Howard is going to be in charge for 3 months.

[polblog]

I think it would be more helpful if you split up the Clarke/Lansley/Rifkind ones. I can see at least three names in there that I know you have got wrong.

[Editor]

I'm happy to learn I'm wrong, polblog... I just need your info to put it right! Who are your three, please?

[Ray Davies]

Add Shailesh Vara to David Davis' list:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/4648311.stm

And Greg Barker to David Cameron's list:

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/pages/live/articles/news/news.html?in_article_id=354580&in_page_id=1770

[Editor]

Thank you, Ray.

[Ronald Collinson]

An interesting and useful list.

Add Stephen Watson, Jonathan Morgan, Ali Miraj, Giles Taylor, Nicola Morgan, Anthony Frieze, Ben Rogers, Jamie Devlin, Andrew Pond, Graham Evans, Damian Hinds, Damian Collins, Kevin Bentley and Aster Crawshaw to Cameron's list, at 7/9/05. They wrote into the telegraph declaring their support:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/main.jhtml?xml=/opinion/2005/09/07/dt0701.xml

[Ronald Collinson]

Sorry that the URL didn't fit.

Here it is again, broken into two:
www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/main.
jhtml?xml=/opinion/2005/09/07/dt0701.xml

Incidentally, how did you find out that Mark Pritchard (my local MP) was backing David Davis? An admittedly quick search did not provide the information, and nor did a look over www.markpritchard.com.

[Editor]

Ronald: you'll always find the most up-to-date 'who's backing who?' list at http://conservativehome.blogs.com/toryleadership/who_is_backing_who/index.html

(Mark Pritchard declared his support for Mr Davis in a joint letter to The Sunday Telegraph on 4/9)