This week's Economist speculates that David Davis may "ascend to the leadership without the bother of an election". The Bagehot column puts this down to the strong support he is receiving from grassroots members (identified earlier this week by YouGov) and "signs that support among MPs is also flowing strongly towards Mr Davis". This favourable tide amongst MPs is put down to the absence of a strong alternative and “because Mr Davis already has the aura of a winner and nobody wants to miss out on their own future advancement within the party by pledging support to a doomed rival”.
Not so fast, Walter! Party insiders have told this blog that Mr Davis is far from home and dry.
Whilst Mr Davis remains the bookies’ favourite his campaign has four main weaknesses:
(1) David Davis has enemies in the press – see here and here. Expect more such attacks and scrutiny in coming days.
(2) The DD campaign has not yet offered a clear strategy to take the party from 33% to 44% (but see here for one). A forthcoming speech to the Centre for Policy Studies (on 4th July) may start to offer a vision and gameplan.
(3) Mr Davis’ lieutenants don’t always serve him well. First of all, there was resentment of Andrew Mitchell’s strong arm tactics when he publicly discouraged David Cameron from standing. More importantly, Derek Conway and Eric Forth are blamed for ramping up the aborted campaign to no-confidence Michael Howard; aborted because it threatened to backfire on the Shadow Home Secretary.
(4) The fourth and main weakness of the campaign is related to the Conway-Forth plotting. David Davis has a lot of enemies in the parliamentary party. Close friends of William Hague complain of constant sniping at their man whilst he was leader. Aides to IDS note that ‘Friends of DD’ were at the heart of the campaign to oust him. And people close to Michael Howard’s team are desperate to prevent the Shadow Home Secretary from inheriting the Tory crown. Again and again party high-ups claim that David Davis or/and his aides are disloyal operators.
The opponents of DD do not yet have a strong candidate but speculation continues to mount that a broadly-based coalition is being formed to stop him. That coalition is now most likely to be led by David Cameron following his second-placed showing in Wednesday’s Telegraph/YouGov poll of party members and supporters. Cameron will then win the support of Clarke and Rifkind and, perhaps, even Michael Howard (although he has said that he will not endorse a candidate).
‘The Coalition’, the speculation continues, can only succeed if the final right to decide the next leader is wrestled away from party members and restored to the parliamentary party. ‘The Coalition’ has been encouraged by soundings and polls that suggest that the members are loyally willing to acquiesce in the removal of their voting powers.
It's definitely Davis' race to lose - and he definitely is capable of losing it! You don't go to the centre of it - 2 points: A) The disregard people have for DD's team. Yes, you mention people's dislike of their plotting, but it's more than that - the number of time I've heard people say lately, 'know the man by the quality of his friends'... Conway and Mitchell are just not seen as suitable lieutenants for someone who wants to be leader of the Conservative Party, let alone Prime Minister. B) The hatred for DD in the highest reaches of the party. It's more than general disapproval of sniping. It is real, deep-seated hatred. If you get this, you start to realise why Howard plumped for such a poor exit strategy.
I think Davis is no better than 55-45 to win. Personally, I'd like him to win, because in the outside world he looks like a winner, and the Tories have no-one else who does. But he's going to have improve substantially his performance in the smaller world of Westminster.
Posted by: Buxtehude | 05 June 2005 at 06:49
The Tories have nobody else who looks like a winner? according to the sunday Telegraph (1st May 2005) floating voters were very much taken with Dr Liam Fox. So I wouldn't agree that the Tories don't have any other winner. I haven't seen David Cameron much yet but will come to a judgment when I do.
As for David davis I like him, but it's the people with whom he surrounds himself about whom I have my doubts. Eric forth and Andrew Mitchel are by no means the most capable or respectable lieutenants in the Conservative party. I shall wait and see before I nail my colours to the mast in this contest-to-be, but I personally would prefer Liam Fox to win rather than David davis as things stand. maybe the position will be clearer on reading Mr Davis' piece in today's sunday telegraph.
Posted by: Mark Higgins | 05 June 2005 at 16:21