A Populus poll in this morning's Times finds that Ken Clarke is the most popular candidate for the leadership of the Conservative Party. His popularity is greatest amongst all and Tory voters.
The key numbers are as follows for all voters (and Tory voters in brackets):
Ken Clarke - 26% (24%)
David Davis - 11% (20%)
Sir Malcolm Rifkind - 5% (6%)
John Redwood - 4% (5%)
Liam Fox - 3% (6%)
David Cameron - 2% (3%)
Populus' findings are not easy to compare with those by YouGov for last week's Telegraph. YouGov also focused on Tory voters but their second category was Tory members, not all voters. Also, YouGov asked respondents about their top TWO choices for leader - Populus sought only respondents' top choice.
Nonetheless the survey gives Clarke a big boost and dampens the popular case for David Cameron. Mr Cameron came second in the YouGov poll amongst party members but hardly registered in this Populus poll.
Populus also found that Tory voters were much less likely to want big changes in the Conservative Party. 41% said that the Conservative Party "just needs to stick to its guns and put over its existing ideas more strongly". Only 18% of all voters agreed with that. 43% of all voters thought that the Tories "need to change significantly, get more in touch with life in modern Britain and become more moderate".
The party must reach out beyond its core vote to those who wouldn`t normally vote Conservative if its to win the next election. It is obvious from this poll that Ken Clarke is the one most likely to be able to do this. Its clear that at the end of the day its win with Ken, lose with Davis!
Posted by: Jack Stone | 08 June 2005 at 19:05
The YouGov poll indicated that Clarke was unacceptable to his own party. You can't win an election if you are an unprincipled trimmer, who has sold his own base out.
Ken Clarke easily comes top amongst the general public, because he is the only one of the potential candidates that Populus named who is widely known.
Having a higher recognition factor due to high profile roles doesn't make him the right choice now.
Posted by: James Hellyer | 08 June 2005 at 19:49
This seems nightmarish. Ken Clarke is fanatical about the EU and reportedly said last week that it was ridiculous to put the Constitution as a referendum. Not only that but he was behind aspects of dissolving the national interest when in government himself. The same unlistening arrogance that has got us in the mess we are in wrt the EU. As an example look at Mr.Clarke's record as space minister in the 1980s and compare this with the latest drive to establish a common EU space policy via the Constitution. We've not only lost innovatives, cutting-edge, valuable technology over the years but are contributing taxpayer's money to space schemes that threaten the trans-Atlantic relationship and NATO.
The Tory party is missing the principal reason for its existence: the survival of our national interest. Subordinating, entrenching, marginalising or however you wish to describe it into a project that is designed to be supra-national and which is failing to rectify its fundamental flaws and failings whilst the wider world moves on is not only a betrayal of the core values of the party but craziness.
Anybody who wants a primer on what is missing from our foreign policy and whose absence Ken Clarke seems to epitomise should read Liam Fox's recent foreign policy speech in the Commons.
Whether Liam wins any leadership contest or not, as a foregin secretary he would be vital.
Posted by: AW | 08 June 2005 at 21:13
It's rather contentious. Labour, LibDem and other party voters might like to see Kenneth Clarke as Conservative Party leader, but that doesn't mean that they are likely to switch their votes to the Tories if he does become leader.
Besides, Clarke's pro-EU integration stance might cause many traditional Tory voters to abstain or vote for UKIP. I'd be gutted if he became leader. There's no where else to go with my vote. Other parties on the right are too trivial (UKIP is a one-issue party), extremist/racist (BNP) or secteniarist.
Posted by: Shaun | 08 June 2005 at 22:23
Proof of the existence of the WMD's has been confirmed, this out.
Posted by: Jeff in MI | 09 June 2005 at 00:44
Clarke as leader is a nightmare scenario. Within 2 years of him becoming leader (and the Tory Party once again in the middle of outright civil war), the general public will be trying to remember why they thought he'd be so good.
Posted by: Roland Smith | 09 June 2005 at 09:07
I thought everyone knew that Iraq had WMDs.After all, they got them from the U.S. and would have got them from Britain if it hadn't been for the Matrix Churchill affair.The problem is they didn't have them in 2003 when our dishonourable government used this as a reason to help the U.S. with its invasion, this story changes nothing.
I'm not entirely sure what this has to do with this blog anyway.
Regarding the leadership debate I think it is beholden on all of us to be as generous and civilised to each other and remember we are all Conservatives.
Clarke, is not a trimmer James,he has been remarkably consistent with pro-European views even 'though they have and I think will continue to prevent him becoming leader.Nor I do not think Ken Clarke is some sort of traitor for selling out our national interest AW.He sees it differently, he feels we are stronger as part of Europe than as an individual country.I think he's wrong but we still need people like him in our party.
Posted by: malcolm | 09 June 2005 at 09:28
I think the only thing this poll really shows is that Clarke and Davis are the only ones capable of beating Gordon Brown in 2009.
Rifkind or Willets would be stop-gap, Fox or Cameron would be a 2 term project.
Posted by: Edward | 09 June 2005 at 11:43
Yes I realise that Malcolm - I think he has the 'let's get out of it what we can attitude' but in the face of what the EU represents that's madness IMHO. The point was anyway the apparent disdain he has for the opinions of the public, particularly with regards to Europe.
Posted by: AW | 09 June 2005 at 13:02
So Clarke's not a trimmer then Malcolm? You've obviously forgotten his ill fated team up with John Redwood to try and give his '97 campaign some euro-sceptic street cred. Or that he trots out his free market principles whenever he's near a Conservative audience, before going away to argue for greater involvement in a protectionist European Union.
Posted by: James Hellyer | 09 June 2005 at 18:21
No James, Clarke is not a trimmer,if he were he could have done a 'Kinnock' and disavowed everything he believed in and would probably have become leader of our party .The Clarke-Redwood joint ticket was an insane idea that brought discredit to both parties.
I am the last person to defend the EU institutions but I do believe that the Conservative party needs people like Ken Clarke and insulting him doesn't really achieve anything.
Posted by: malcolm | 10 June 2005 at 10:42
Most of the candidates find it hard to achieve recognition in their own homes. Its hardly surprising that Clarke, with far the greater public awareness came top.
Posted by: EU Serf | 10 June 2005 at 14:28
"Clarke is not a trimmer,if he were he could have done a 'Kinnock' and disavowed everything he believed in and would probably have become leader of our party"
But that's precisely what he tried to do when he teamed up with John Redwood and when he now says that "Europe is not an issue". He's trying to gull people into thinking he can be contained on that issue or that it doesn't matter when, of course, if does; and he would forget it "doesn't matter" and forward his views at the first opportunity.
He's a trimmer because he will try and gull the party into thinking he's a safe bet, when really he's the same old Ken Clarke.
Posted by: James Hellyer | 10 June 2005 at 18:28
I think James, we'll have to agree to disagree on this one.It's probably all irrelevant anyway, Ken Clarke has in my humble opinion no chance whatever of being leader.No europhile will ever lead the party again, that debate ((I hope)is done.
Posted by: malcolm | 11 June 2005 at 19:16
I am overjoyed that Ken Clarke is standing for leadership of the Conservative Party. They should have chosen him ages ago. He is by far the best man for the job and by far the best potential Prime Minister around.
I left the Conservative Party, after years and years of active membership, because it had turned too far to the right. I am a convinced pro-European, an Oxford graduate modern linguist, born just before the war. The Europeans are much closer to us than the Americans - you would know that if you bothered to learn some European languages!!!!!
Ken is absolutely right to deplore the Iraq war. Terrorists are criminals and should be combatted by world-wide policing, not attacks on sovereign states when there is no evidence of them having received support from the latter. (Which is why Afghanistan is a different issue.- the Taleban were harbouring and supporting El Qaeda.)
If Ken wins the leadership contest, I shall be out there campaigning for him. Let us hope and pray that he wins the Conservative Leadership contest. I really believe that this is the last chance they have.
Posted by: Jean Andrews | 01 September 2005 at 20:08
I am overjoyed that Ken Clarke is standing for leadership of the Conservative Party. They should have chosen him ages ago. He is by far the best man for the job and by far the best potential Prime Minister around.
I left the Conservative Party, after years and years of active membership, because it had turned too far to the right. I am a convinced pro-European, an Oxford graduate modern linguist, born just before the war. The Europeans are much closer to us than the Americans - you would know that if you bothered to learn some European languages!!!!!
Ken is absolutely right to deplore the Iraq war. Terrorists are criminals and should be combatted by world-wide policing, not attacks on sovereign states when there is no evidence of them having received support from the latter. (Which is why Afghanistan is a different issue.- the Taleban were harbouring and supporting El Qaeda.)
If Ken wins the leadership contest, I shall be out there campaigning for him. Let us hope and pray that he wins the Conservative Leadership contest. I really believe that this is the last chance they have.
Posted by: Jean Andrews | 01 September 2005 at 20:10
"Clarke is not a trimmer,if he were he could have done a 'Kinnock' and disavowed everything he believed in"
Oh look, he has on Europe at least.
Posted by: James Hellyer | 01 September 2005 at 20:11
I don't think Ken would split the party, he is a strong leader, splits come when there is a weak leader. In addition it would be a short term chance to get people listening to our message again and then someone from the Fox or Cameron generation will be leader in a few years. The poll is bad news for Cameron, but shows that we really need to see all the key candidates set out their stalls on a big TV special debate (as Labour did) if it is one member one vote. Cameron is a very solid candidate but just isn't so well known, yet.
Posted by: AnotherNick | 01 September 2005 at 20:32