Dr Fox is the week's winner and David Davis has more to worry about

GOOD WEEK, BAD WEEK (EDITION ONE)

This is the first of a new feature – ‘Good week, bad week’ – in which I’ll try and record who has got momentum and who is faltering. Unlike this blog’s other entries it will be a little more opinionated.

Liam Fox (+3) certainly has enjoyed the best week. It began with his Sunday Telegraph interview that revealed how three respected Conservatives - Stephen O’Brien, Chris Grayling and Oliver Heald – had formed his inner team. In that interview he also talked about fixing Britain’s ‘broken society’ – saying that fixing social problems should be as important to today’s Tories as fixing economic problems was in the 1980s. This was a reassuring contrast to the insistence on a neo-Thatcherite ‘we must cut the size of the state’ test, with which he began his campaign. Dr Fox’s third success of the week has been to continue to ably perform his new responsibilities as Shadow Foreign Secretary. His ideas on Europe were yesterday welcomed in a Telegraph Op-Ed.

The Coalition to Stop Davis has had a good week (+3). It knows that DD probably cannot be beaten if the grassroots members retain the final say in the leadership election. This week’s indicative vote by MPs to scrap members’ voting rights gives the Coalition heart. DD is still the favourite to win any election but the Coalition (whose likely candidate would still be David Cameron) has a better chance amongst the parliamentary party where DD has many enemies.

David Davis (-1) started the week well with a continuing commitment to ‘one nation Conservatism’ in The Observer and a promise to form a shadow cabinet of all the talents on Monday’s Today programme. I’ve given him a minus one, however, because of the possible change in the leadership process and because of Liam Fox’s good week. Mr Davis can only beat ‘The Coalition’ if he has united ‘the right’ behind him. He can’t do that as long as Dr Fox is a serious candidate. A real conspiracy theorist could think that ‘The Coalition’ would engineer a Fox candidacy if it didn’t already exist.

Andrew Lansley gets a +1 for the week because of his unexpected third placed rating by the bookies. This gives him a better chance of being the modernisers’ candidate that Tim Yeo is hoping to see emerge.

Sir Malcolm Rifkind and David Willetts both score –1 for quiet weeks. If either candidate is going to be taken seriously they have to impress more. Frontrunners like David Davis and Ken Clarke are strong enough candidates to pause whenever they choose. Rifkind and Willetts need to grab more attention.

Comments

[Wat Tyler]

Don't know how you reckon Doc Fox- a night drinking with students, then sharing hotel suite with unknown 22 year old- has had a good week.

Lansley's not third in the betting odds- in fact his odds have lenghtened since end-May and he's now fifth. (see http://www.politicalbetting.com/).

Meanwhile DD's odds have shortened further from evens to 4/5 (William Hill). That's the only proper measure we've got.

[Editor]

I'm not sure that such contentious questioning of Liam Fox is worthy of you, Wat. The Mail on Sunday's sensationalist journalism to which you refer was two weeks ago anyway. This was a review of the last week only. I still think Liam Fox had the best of the week for the reasons I stated, but I still think your man - Mr Davis - is the frontrunner. If Mr Davis has a better week, next week, I'll certainly say so.

[Wat Tyler]

Editor- point taken- a slightly overexcited comment on my part. Actually in fairness, the Doc does seem to have some appeal with those hard to reach bits of the electorate- my son's girlfriend thinks he's great.

[buxtehude]

If the Mail comes out for Clarke next week, that will be a huge plus for DD. I say this because I don't think there's any chance that the party - neither MPs nor members - would go for Clarke, but a good showing for a big-beast pro-European would diminish Cameron et al and make DD seem all the more necessary.

I think the Editor is right to give DD a -1, as he continues without any big-hitter team-members.

[John Travis]

Buxtehude - I think Mrs T still counts as a big hitter ! DD gets her support and is still -1, I think the editor might have an agenda.

[James Hellyer]

"Don't know how you reckon Doc Fox- a night drinking with students, then sharing hotel suite with unknown 22 year old- has had a good week."

Actually I think that was pretty cool of Dr Fox. I can't see politicians being willing or able to hang out with young people. So all kudos to him!

Of course, Tim also missed our the good Doctor's life saving missions in the week. As the Telegraph said, life seems to be a series of opportune moments for the Doctor!

[buxtehude]

Do we know that Mrs T supports DD? I hand't heard that. What's the evidence? In any case, she's not a 'big hitter'. She may be heroic and wonderful, but she's no trump card these days. Those who were at the CWF dinner will know she's loved, but as part of the past.

Anyhow, what I meant was active participants. DD has no-one impressive on his team, who is going to help. Still my front-runner, but not easy-going.

[James Hellyer]

"Do we know that Mrs T supports DD?"

It was mentioned, in passing, on the front page of today's Telegraph.

[Ben O]

I am not sure if this is a minus or a postive mark for DC:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/4104286.stm

[James Hellyer]

I think Cameron's policy announcements are a minus for Cameron.

"Bye bye choice! Hello technocrats!" Or at least that's what his pronouncments on schools said to me...

[Editor]

I've now posted on the Cameron-Johnson endorsement for those who want to debate it.

[John Travis]

If I were a leadership contender, I'd value Mrs T's backing abit more than Stephen O'Brien - but maybe that's just me :)

Cameron should get a positive as well for getting Boris as a backer.

[Andrew Ian Dodge]

Who knows whether Mrs T's backing is a good thing or a bad thing? I think it would strengthen the resolve of the supporters and DD...but probably do the same to the "anyone but DD" crowd.

[Edward]

Thatcher's endorsement is a potential disaster skin because if DD does become leader the headlines in the BBC and Times etc will be "child of thatcher" etc etc. And Thatcher is a dirty word to most people in this country.