Tim Yeo’s expected announcement that he won’t stand is the first sign of a possible consolidation of the Tory leadership race. David Davis, Liam Fox, Ken Clarke and David Cameron now look set to be the four main contenders for the Tory crown:
> Davis remains the frontrunner but has yet to pick up a major endorsement from a senior serving colleague. Yesterday’s Telegraph did report that Baroness Thatcher was supporting him, however.
> Also ‘of the right’ will be Liam Fox. As reported yesterday, Dr Fox has enjoyed a good week and will undermine David Davis’ ability to unite right-of-centre MPs behind him.
> It was reported yesterday that Ken Clarke will stand – with an announcement tomorrow. This will split the Stop-Davis-Coalition, at least for now.
> But it is David Cameron who has done most well over the last 24 hours. Radio 4’s Today programme reports that Oliver Letwin will soon endorse the 38-year-old Shadow Education Secretary. Mr Cameron is already thought to have Michael Howard’s support and yesterday won Boris Johnson’s backing.
PS Alan Duncan is still trying hard, though, to get into the top frame. The frilly knickers candidate was on Radio 4’s Any Questions? last night before being interviewed by Anne Robinson on BBC1. He is certainly becoming a media darling. Mr Duncan showed off his excellent Ali G impersonation but were any Tory MPs watching?
Help! I am a natural conservative I am looking for a political party that I can support. please wake me up when this Conservative party has a leader who will stand up for conservative values, who will stand up to the media instead of creeping round after them. Who cares if Alan Duncan is becoming a media darling, or if Ken Clarke has the backing of some newspaper, we do not elect the media to run this country, that is what politicians are paid to do, and given the power to do through elections, the media hacks have no place in deciding the policies of this country they do not have a mandate to do so.
I would love to be able to support a conservative party when we have one I will.
Posted by: Ken | 18 June 2005 at 08:58
It looks as if everybody is lost in a fog.
What I find most worrying is that they all act as if they can count on some kind of base support, that most of us have 'nowhere else to go'. They forget that we can just choose to stay at home.
DD wrote in his Observer article last week that the test of success for Tory policies should be whether they help the disadvantaged. Well, yes and no. I don't want to live in a society which tolerates poverty, abuse, prejudice, or unfair obstacles to opportunity. But I'd like to see more emphasis on wealth creation, on reward for effort. Right now, a not-terrible mix of pro-business/social justice agenda is being delivered by Blair and Brown. What are you going to do better, Mr Davis?
And Mr Cameron, why should I risk voting for you, when everything you say would fit very nicely into the mouths of New Labour? Why should I switch from my current provider? You're offering neither a better price, a better quality of service, nor a different product. And you have no record of achievement in any sphere.
Public services are not awful, just lack-lustre. The economy is not going to crash, though it might drift down a bit. (And even if it does seriously dip, I think I feel more confident in Brown than two thirty-something Etonians). Fears about the European project are receding.
These leadership contenders are going to have to do much, much better if they're going to give an impression of having a chance of winning in 4 years time against a newly energised Brown. Right now it looks as if we're all wasting our time.
Posted by: buxtehude | 18 June 2005 at 09:25
"a chance of winning in 4 years time against a newly energised Brown"
So you can predict the future. Who knows what the political climate will be in 4 years time. I personally doubt Brown will be so well received in most of England as Blair (whatever our dislike of him) is. Blair of course went to a top public school.
"more confident in Brown than two thirty-something Etonians"
Who is the other thirty-something old etonian?
Posted by: Ben O | 18 June 2005 at 09:30
Isn't Osborne an Etonian? And wouldn't Boris get a place? Maybe he's not thirties anymore. Well, it doesn't matter - you're right to pull me up on the line: I don't think it matters where you went to school, what matters is a) what you are and - not to be ignored in this context - b) how you appear to voters. But I'm afraid I do think Cameron will appear to voters as beloning to a different world from them. I hope I'm wrong.
Your criticism of me as pretending to 'predict the future' is, however, off the mark. Of course all of us are attempting to say something about how things are now and will be in the future. What else are these blogs about? Your 'doubt' about how Brown will be received is also a prediction, isn't it?
But we already know that Brown is very well received by the electorate right now. In every opinion poll. People don't see Brown the way we do. I don't know why you are confident that will change in time for the next election. Are you banking on Brown making some mistake he hasn't already made? That he will suddenly reveal 'his true colours'? The architect of Labour's long victory over us is not suddenly going to behave like a fool. He would like to be Prime Minister and stay Prime Minister.
Posted by: buxtehude | 18 June 2005 at 10:18
Isn't Osborne an Etonian? And wouldn't Boris get a place? Maybe he's not thirties anymore.
No Osborne didn't go to Eton. Boris probably would get a place and yes he has passed the mighty 40!
Well, it doesn't matter - you're right to pull me up on the line: I don't think it matters where you went to school, what matters is a) what you are and - not to be ignored in this context - b) how you appear to voters. But I'm afraid I do think Cameron will appear to voters as beloning to a different world from them.
I am presuming that the new leader will be in place before Brown before pm, in which case it will be two public school boys as leaders. I am not sure Cameron will seem belonging to a different world more than any other leadership contender. It could be said that he has to face more difficulties in his life than say Blair.
"Your criticism of me as pretending to 'predict the future' is, however, off the mark. Of course all of us are attempting to say something about how things are now and will be in the future. What else are these blogs about? "
True
"Your 'doubt' about how Brown will be received is also a prediction, isn't it?"
It is a worry that Brown has himself. You say that being an Old Etonian is perceived as a problem. It could also be said that lots of England (especially in the south or "middle england") would have problems with a Scot person who is perceived to be the left of Blair.
Posted by: Ben O | 18 June 2005 at 10:53
OK, Ben, I'm not saying it's plain sailing for ANY politician, ever.
But I don't think the Blair-is-also-a-public-schoolboy works: Blair works as a contrast to his party - he demonstrated by his own 'story' that the Labour Party had changed. Cameron doesn't show the Tories have changed - he confirms they're still the same. (I'm not impressed that a few upper-middle-class gays/blacks might be in his group - Cameron remains very much 'old school'.)
Anyway, I have nothing against Cameron as such, having never met him nor seeing him performs much. On that documentary about Howard he and Osborne popped up looking like a couple of perfectly pleasant prefects. I just can't see him frightening Brown.
Can't see Davis frightening him either, for that matter.
Brown is defeatable - and I very much hope he will be defeated. But let's not underestimate the challenge by thinking it's all about a nice new chap.
Posted by: buxtehude | 18 June 2005 at 14:20