ConservativeHome's ToryDiary

Welsh Tories express concern at Welsh jobs for Scottish workers

A Conservative Assembly Member from North Wales has expressed his concern and bafflement at workers being drafted in from Scotland to work on new offices for the Welsh Assembly in Llandudno.

The story has been raised in a local paper, the Weekly News, which had previously quoted a Lib Dem cabinet member of Conwy council as praising a contractor for employing local people and materials.

But according to the paper's latest report:

"The Weekly News has discovered that the steel framework is being erected by Scottish company Solway Steel, and an Alpha Crane has been brought all the way from Ayrshire to help put the components in place. A local contractor, who asked not to be named, is furious. “They have brought a telescopic crane all the way from Scotland, and the steel erectors are from Scotland,” he said."

Welsh Tories reimburse Assembly for their iPods

Six days after first reports that Welsh Tory leader Nick Bourne (pictured) was under pressure for having used Welsh Assembly office allowances to purchase an iPod - a move which was approved by the relevant authorities on the grounds that he was using it to learn Welsh - he has reimbursed the Assembly for its cost.

Another Conservative Assembly Member who also bought an iPod in similar circumstances, Alun Cairns, has done the same, a day after it emerged that the pair had  made charitable donations of £250 and £200 respectively.

Mr Bourne said:

“Although the purchase of these iPods was within the rules of the Assembly and authorised by the Fees Office, I recognise the perception that this expenditure was inappropriate. Alun Cairns and I have decided therefore to reimburse the National Assembly for these items in addition to the charitable donations we have made. We apologise to the people of Wales."

This was clearly the right thing to do, but it is a shame that it took nearly a week for that conclusion to be reached, since it allowed the story to fester for days on end. There was also the somewhat unfortunate tale - reported widely - about an alleged attempt by the Tories to engender a "gentlemen's agreement" between the parties at Cardiff Bay not to raise the issue of each others' expense claims.

An inquiry into Welsh Assembly Members' allowances is currently being conducted, although Mr Bourne is now signalling that Tory AMs will be bringing forward stricter rules in advance of the official report being published.

But that may be too little too late as far as his own future is concerned, not least because this is not the first time in recent months that he has been at the centre of controversy.

The Western Mail called for him to resign yesterday amid reports in a number of media outlets that he no longer has the confidence of the majority of the Conservative group at Cardiff Bay.

It is now widely expected that he will be replaced sooner rather than later by Cardiff North Assembly Member, Jonathan Morgan.

Jonathan Isaby

Nick Bourne under pressure

Nick Bourne's position as Tory leader in the Welsh Assembly would seem to be increasingly vulnerable if media reports over the last couple days are to be believed.

He would appear to have become especially vulnerable after the publication of Assembly Members' expense claims this week, which showed that he had spent more than £5,000 of public money on his bathroom, as well as buying such items as a trouser press and an iPod on expenses.

Whilst it should be noted that such expenditure is entirely within the rules, BBC Welsh affairs editor Vaughan Roderick wrote yesterday that "more than half" of the 12-strong Tory group at Cardiff Bay now believe that he should stand down.

He pointed out that Mr Bourne has been under some pressure since the autumn after the publication of a dossier - which he had approved - making personal attacks on Wales's First Minister, Rhodri Morgan.

Today, a report in Wales on Sunday states that Cardiff North Assembly Member Jonathan Morgan - widely viewed to be the likely successor to Mr Bourne - is refusing to rule himself out of the running to take over, albeit not until there is a vacancy. He said:

“The group has been very supportive of Nick and I’m assuming that is still the case. I wouldn’t be a politician if I wasn’t ambitious and of course I would consider it, but at this moment there is no vacancy.”

Jonathan Isaby

The policy challenges for the Welsh Conservatives

With discussion going on elsewhere on the site today about what the Scottish Conservatives should be saying, I thought I’d take this opportunity to highlight a recent speech by Nick Bourne, the leader of the Tories in the Welsh Assembly.

Addressing the North Wales Policy Forum in Llandudno the weekend before last, he congratulated the party on a string of excellent local election results and even raised the prospect of the party winning a second seat in Wales at June’s European Parliament elections.

He also pointed out how Wales is being especially badly affected by the economic crisis.

“In Wales, we have been hit particularly hard. Unemployment rose by 24,000 in the last quarter, the biggest increase of any UK nation or region. By Christmas, 100,000 people will be out of work. Workers, homeowners and pensioners are rightly asking what Labour and Plaid are doing for them… This crisis shows the need for parties to work together, to help businesses remain productive. And to ensure families and workers stay in their homes and jobs.”

Mr Bourne then set out five policy challenges for the Welsh Conservatives and proposals which the Labour/Plaid-run Assembly Government should adopt, which I have summarised below.

An end to The Bourne Supremacy?

BBC Wales is reporting that Welsh Conservatives are considering whether it's time to end the nine year-long rule of their Cardiff Assembly leader, Nick Bourne AM. 

Nick Bourne has run into trouble after the Welsh Tories issued a dossier - The Clown Prince of Wales - that attacked Wales' First Minister Rhodri Morgan - partly for his appearance and hairstyle.  The dossier has been widely condemned and Mr Bourne had to apologise to Mr Morgan for any offence caused.  Guto Bebb, Tory candidate for the top target seat of Aberconwy, called the document "shameful" and "disagraceful".

Conservatives now unlikely to make large changes to UK-wide funding settlement

Another big news day for the TaxPayers' Alliance.  See, for example, the BBC, The Telegraph and The Sun.

The reason for today's news coverage is a TPA report on the Barnett formula that governs the public expenditure settlement between the different parts of the UK.  Here are the main findings in the report from author, Mike Denham:

Mr Denham recommends that the formula is abolished as part of giving Scotland 'fiscal autonomy'.

Speaking to Conservatives in Westminster, Edinburgh and Cardiff yesterday, however, it seems that the Conservative Party is unlikely to make more than modest reforms to the formula.  These were the political reasons given:

1. The party now enjoys a large opinion poll lead.  Polls had suggested that reform of the Barnett formula could have an electric effect on voters - similar to last year's inheritance tax cut - but that the risk was no longer necessary.  Ridley Grove made the case on Monday that large opinion poll leads are discouraging radicalism in Tory policy.
2. Reform could jeopardise talks with the Ulster Unionists. The focus is often on Scotland but as the graphic above shows, the biggest beneficiary of the current settlement is N Ireland.  David Cameron has high hopes for Owen Paterson's co-operation talks with the UUP and unpicking the Barnett formula could greatly undermine the appeal of UUP-Tory candidates in their first General Election campaign.
3. Reform could be a gift to the SNP.  Alex Salmond believes that reform of Barnett would be a massive gift to his hopes for independence.  A poll earlier this week found that - regardless of Barnett - a quarter of Scots would be more likely to vote for independence if there was a Tory government.
4. Reform could hurt the Conservatives' Welsh revival. Although the party may not win many more seats in NI or Scotland there is a real chance of big gains in Wales.  Conservatives in Cardiff fear that reform of Barnett could kill those chances.  As part of the Tory commitment to Wales the Shadow Welsh Secretary Cheryl Gillan has already defended the continuation of the Welsh Office.

This is not to say that there will be no reform but any ideas will be very gradual and focus on benefiting poorer communities in all parts of the UK.

Rifkind: Unless we address the West Lothian Question the United Kingdom is in great danger

At the Centre for Policy Studies yesterday evening Sir Malcolm Rifkind MP gave an unscripted address entitled The Unfinished Business of Devolution.  In his wide-ranging remarks he explained why his proposal for an English Grand Committee was superior to that reported to be Ken Clarke's preferred answer to the so-called West Lothian Question.  His key messages (not verbatim) are summarised below:

It is wrong to see this as Scotland V England.  The "unfinished business of devolution" is more complex than that.  Wales and Northern Ireland MPs also have an ability to vote on laws that only apply to the English.  When it comes to reviewing the Barnett formula it is important that it is not portrayed as providing justice for England as against Scotland.  There should be a more sensitive analysis of how different parts of Scotland and different parts of England need to be treated differently than now.  Sir Malcolm contended that, in some respects, the Home Counties have more in common with Edinburgh and Liverpool has more in common with Glasgow.

Devolution has changed a lot but far from everything. At least half of what is relevant to Scotland is still determined by the UK Parliament.  Public expenditure, social security, foreign policy, EU policy and immigration are still determined at Westminster.  What is more: the UK is not a federal state but power has been devolved - meaning that the Westminster parliament can at any time, in extremis, over-rule Cardiff, Edinburgh or Belfast - or even revoke devolution completely.

Scotland and Wales are not moving remorselessly to independence.  Every poll showed that support for independence was in the minority and relatively flat.  The SNP are a minority government in Scotland - outnumbered by unionist parties.  Scots voted SNP for a variety of reasons last year and in the same way many opponents of the euro voted for Tony Blair in 1997, many opponents of independence voted for the SNP.  Alex Salmond knows that his best hope for independence is a breakdown in English-Scottish relations.  That is why he opposes proposals like an English Grand Committee because such proposals tackle the injustices that, unmitigated, could eventually produce a breakdown.

Welsh Conservatives back 8.3% pay rise for AMs

Conservative Assembly Members are joining Labour and the LibDems in backing the recommendations of an independent commission set up to assess their levels of pay. Instead of going for the 1.9% increase that MPs are getting, they will get an inflation-busting increase of almost £4,000 (8.3% compared to 2.2% CPI). David Cameron was against an above-inflation rise in MPs' pay.

The Assembly Commission's Chairman, Oxford lecturer Sir Michael Wheeler-Booth, said that the pay rise reflected an increase of responsibilities resulting from increased legislative power in Cardiff, but Plaid Cymru is largely opposing it. Conservative group leader Nick Bourne called PC's position "the worst kind of political opportunism" and said "the people of Wales will see through this posturing".

Welsh Tory leader unapologetic after blog attack on "sub-human" BNP

Nick Bourne AM's personal blog was our blog of the week recently and a post attacking the BNP has reportedly produced 180 complaints to the Welsh Assembly's standards committee.  The leader of the Welsh Tories described the British National Party as a “nasty, mean, distasteful and grubby bunch of sub-human flotsam and jetsam”.

Mr Bourne was unapologetic in a statement to Wales on Sunday:

“I have no intention of withdrawing any of the comments I made about the British National Party and its membership. Nor will I apologise for making them.  The BNP is a divisive, dangerous organisation which exists to spread fear, hatred and bigotry. There is no place in a civilised society for their views and people from all political parties and none should stand together against them.”

I wouldn't use Mr Bourne's language but my guess is that 99% of those 180 complaints were from BNP activists.  Mr Bourne writes an excellent blog and I hope he'll continue to express his views with passion.

Yesterday Plaid and Labour agreed to form a ruling coalition in the Welsh Assembly.  Mr Bourne will lead the opposition to that coalition.  The Welsh Conservatives had hoped to form their own governing alliance with Plaid and the LibDems.

12 July update from the BBC: Bourne cleared by Assembly standing committee

Triple crown of Plaid, Tories and LibDems set to govern Wales

Radio 4's World at One has just reported that a Plaid-Tory-LibDem coalition is "90% likely" to govern Wales.  If this emerges both Wales and Scotland will have nationalist first ministers.  Welsh Tory leader Nick Bourne (who blogs here) has long hoped to put his Tory group into a grand coalition but that hope only became feasible when Mike German AM pulled out of talks to put his LibDem group into coalition with Rhodri Morgan's Welsh Labour party.

Nick Bourne issued the following statement:

"I can confirm today that an approach has been made by Plaid Cymru for preliminary discussions about the possible form of the next Assembly government.  I can also confirm that preliminary talks have already taken place. The stability and credibility of the Assembly, and the delivery of policies that will make a positive difference to the lives of people across Wales remain our key concerns.  Welsh Conservatives have always said that we would be willing to work in government with parties other than Labour to achieve that."

The Conservatives have 12 AMs, Labour 26, Plaid 15 and the LibDems 6.

And how do you rate the Conservative Party's out-of-Westminster leaders?

We've already published the results from the April survey that showed rising member satisfaction with David Cameron and for most of the shadow cabinet.  We also asked what you thought about the three people who lead the Conservative Party in Europe, Scotland and Wales: Timothy Kirkhope MEP, Annabel Goldie MSP and Nick Bourne AM.

Nick Bourne AM, leader of the Welsh Tories since 1999, was least known by respondents.  71% said they did not know enough or anything about him.  Of the 29% willing to express an opinion 22% were satisfied and 7% dissatisfied.  There had been speculation that Mr Bourne might face a leadership challenge after delivering what some thought were below-expectation gains in the May elections but his likeliest successor - Jonathan Morgan AM - told Wales on Sunday that he was 100% behind Bourne's continued leadership.

55% were don't knows about the leader of the Conservative MSPs, Annabel Goldie.  35% were satisfied (10% very) and 10% were dissatisfied.  Ms Goldie hopes she will soon have the opportunity to implement some Conservative manifesto promises.  Refusing to enter any formal pact with any party she has long promised to work with a minority administration - including Alex Salmond's SNP - on implementing Tory manifesto ideas.  Ms Goldie reiterated that promise for yesterday's Scotsman.  Ms Goldie's trickiest decision will be whether or not to proceed with a more separate Scottish party.  In yesterday's Herald, Political Editor Douglas Fraser agreed with ConservativeHome's belief that "splitting could help Tories find their way back from the political wilderness".  Indications are that organised resistance from former Conservative Scottish Secretaries has cooled David Cameron's initial enthusiasm for the split.

Timothy Kirkhope, leader of the Tory MEPs, has a similar dunno rating to Annabel Goldie (56%) but of those willing to express an opinion it is much more negative.  29% are dissatisfied (17% very) and just 15% satisfied.  Awareness of this level of member concern about MEP performance motivated the MEPs' successful attempt to severely limit member involvement in readoption.  ConservativeHome has twice attempted to ask Timothy Kirkhope to answer questions from members but hasn't received any reply.  He is the only elected Conservative to ever decline an opportunity to be accountable to members through the interviews blog.

We'll ask these questions again on occasions.

LIVE elections blog

Enough for now!  Back later...

4.52am: Former and disgraced Welsh Secretary fails in his bid to win a Welsh Assembly seat.

4.47am: Conservative gain Windsor and Maidenhead from LibDems.  Also East Cambridgeshire gained.

4.40am: Tories on 20% in Wales (projected).

4.35am: Tories on just 15% in Scotland.  Let's hope that Cameron will have the courage to pursue that breakaway strategy...

4.24am: 16 gains see Tories in overall control of Malvern Hills.

4.12am: Finally spoke on BBC1.  Been here five hours for thirty seconds of messaging!  The company has been excellent, though.  On again in another 15 or so minutes...

4.05am: Fraser Nelson says a Tartan intifada is underway in Scotland.  England doesn't matter he's saying compared to what is happening to Labour in Scotland. Gordon Brown lives in hostile territory he says.  Too true.  Is Tartan intifada the soundbite of the night?

4.03am: Grant Schapps on BBC says Tory vote share up 2% to 41%.  BBC respond that it's too early to say.

3.58am: Tories retain key northern stronghold of Trafford.

3.54am: Tories doing very well in East Devon.

3.51am: Things are now looking bad for Labour in Scotland.  My guess is that reverses north of the border are going to be the story.

3.46am: SNP gain Glasgow Govan from Labour.

3.45am: Ben Brogan: "GOSSIP JUST IN: Ming Campbell has been spotted in the Pizza Express at Millbank Tower looking in despair. Maybe he knows something."

3.40am: Alex Fergusson (Tory MSP) survives strong challenge.

3.38am: Tories gain in Birmingham.  Now largest party.

3.37am: Unconfirmed reports that Eric Pickles is dancing at CCHQ.

Elections night predictions (1)

One of the stories of tonight might be the rise of The Others - the BNP, the Greens, SNP, Plaid and maybe even UKIP.  Later today we'll be having our now traditional prediction competition for Tory gains but there's three mugs to be won by the three people with the most accurate predictions for the performance of The Others.  Here are the five tests ...

1. Councillors won/ retained by the BNP in today's elections (750 candidates, currently has about 50 councillors in total, none are defending their seats today);
2. Councillors won/ retained by the Greens in today's elections (1419 candidates, currently have 93 councillors in total with 45 defending their seats today);
3. Councillors won/ retained by UKIP in today's elections (1031 candidates, currently has 19 councillors in total);
4. Welsh Assembly seats won by Plaid (Currently has 12 out of 60);
5. Scottish Parliamentary seats won by the SNP (Currently has 25 out of 129).

We may obviously have to wait a few days for definitive results to judge the entries.

Nick Bourne AM responsible for Welsh coalition decisions (except with Labour)

The Press Association reports:

"David Cameron brushed off claims that support for the Tories was stagnating in Welsh opinion polls when he hit the Assembly election trail today. Mr Cameron said a vote for his party was a vote for more "common sense" in Cardiff Bay and that the Conservatives were the only alternative to the "failure" of Labour or the "divorce" of Plaid Cymru.

Two polls, last night and this morning, put the Conservatives in third place behind Labour and Plaid in the race for the Welsh Assembly. On a campaign visit in South Wales, Mr Cameron said: "I don't bother with polls because we are going to have a big poll on election day when real people can get out and cast real votes in real ballot boxes."

Decisions about siding with other parties in a coalition after next Thursday were up to the party's Assembly leader Nick Bourne, he said."

The 18DoughtyStreet crew are also in Wales today, filming special programmes with Welsh bloggers and Assembly members which will be broadcast on Tuesday evening.

Deputy Editor

This Jones shouldn't be difficult to keep up with

Carwyn Jones is Labour AM for Bridgend.  The five pledges on right are taken from his election literature.

Labour's 1997 pledge card was hardly ambitious but Mr Jones' retreat from any kind of boldness deserves wide recognition.

That commitment to continue to have an email address certainly got my pulse racing.

Related link: Tories set to become second party of Wales

Tories set to become second party of Wales

After all the excitement on this blog over the last 24 hours about Scotland...

An ITV Wales poll finds that the Tories are set to become the second largest party after next month's elections to the Cardiff Assembly.  These are the voting intentions of those who describe themselves as "certain to vote":

• Labour: 36% (40% in 2003) in the first-past-the-post constituencies and 35% (37%) via the top-up lists;
• Conservative: 23% (20%) and 24% (19%);
• Plaid: 20% (21%) and 20% (20%)
• Lib Dems: 15% (14%) and 15% (13%).

The poll increases the likelihood of an anti-Labour grand coalition in Wales emerging after May.

Earlier this week on ConservativeHome William Graham AM set out the case for voting Conservative in the Assembly Elections.

Plaid have been running very heavily against 'Labour's Englishness'.  The broadcast below typifies their campaign.

Vote Welsh Conservative for a change

Welsh Assembly group leader Nick Bourne AM and Shadow Welsh Secretary Cheryl Gillan launched their new campaign slogan last night - "Vote Welsh Conservative for a change".

The Welsh Conservatives are meeting in the Glamorgan County Cricket Club this weekend for their annual conference. In advance of the conference they have pledged to make a 1% efficiency saving on the Assembly's annual budget, and spending it on giving over 300,000 pensioner households a £100 rebate on their council tax bills.

Bourne said at the press conference that the Party's private polling was very positive. Today he will attack the centralisation of power at the Assembly and propose ways to encourage people "to think locally about tackling climate change", such as through a £25m energy-saving light bulb scheme.

The new manifesto, due to published later this month, has caused several internal disagreements however. The main sticking points are proportional representation in local government, the official status of the Welsh language, whether to have a bank holiday on St David's Day, and the extent to which policing powers should be devolved.

Deputy Editor

Year 2(8): Anticipate difficult results in next year's Scottish and Welsh elections

Recommendation 8: Next May’s Scottish and Welsh results are likely to be very difficult for the Conservative Party.  David Cameron has improved the party's opinion poll standing but progress in Wales and Scotland, in particular, is very limited and the party is unlikely to make significant gains.  There is a danger that there may even be some defeats in Scotland.  The party must act now to be able to show that it is making progress in parts of England where there will need to be progress at the General Election.  That means targeting special resources on a few English councils where success can be celebrated on the morning after polling day.  The model is Ken Baker's 1990 tactic of focusing upon winning Wandsworth and Westminster boroughs in an otherwise difficult election year.

Gwlad, gwlad, pleidiol wyf i'm gwlad

Remember John Redwood trying to sing the Welsh national anthem...

Poor Mr Redwood.  Shadow Welsh Secretary Cheryl Gillan (and leading member of the parliamentary choir) tried to put all that behind the Conservative Party today when she gave a perfect rendition of Hen Wlad fy Nhadau (Land of my Fathers) on BBC Radio Wales.  In the process she raised £460 for today's Children In Need appeal.  Well done, Cheryl.

Could all Labour's enemies form an unlikely coalition to govern Wales?

Last night's Radio 4 Westminster Hour discussed the possibility of a grand anti-Labour coalition forming in the Cardiff Assembly after next May's elections.  Although there have been no opinion polls for the Cardiff Assembly for more than eighteen months Labour look set to lose their wafer-thin majority.

Nick Bourne AM, Leader of the Welsh Tories, says that the other Assembly parties should hesitate before propping up a "decaying, damaging and disastrous" minority Labour administration and appeared very open to working with the Liberal Democrats, Plaid and independents in keeping Labour out of office and fulfilling the constitutional duty to govern.  The Radio 4 package noted a recent manoeuvre whereby the opposition parties had joined together to successfully oppose Labour's budget.

Mr Bourne's openness to a grand coalition - what he calls an "unlikely alliance" - may not be shared by grassroots Welsh Tories. There remains suspicion of the Cardiff Assembly amongst the rank-and-file; suspicion that was recently voiced by Preseli Pembrokeshire MP Stephen Crabb on his blog. There will also be big question marks about the desirability of working with Assembly Members - many of whom are to the left of Welsh Labour.

Related link: William Graham AM's birds-eye view of the Welsh Assembly