ConservativeHome's ToryDiary

The Telegraph to Cameron: Dare to be unpopular

The headline above comes from a leader in tomorrow's Sunday Telegraph.

I know where the SunTel is coming from but let's never forget that Maggie was as much a tactical genius as a conviction politician...

• She wasn't averse to putting politics first: She accepted Callaghan's pay deals with the public sector that delayed fiscal retrenchment until 1979.
• She picked the timing of battles: Arthur Scargill sought confrontation with her in her first term but she knew she wasn't ready to win and gave the NUM what it wanted.  She delayed confrontation until 1984/85 when she could win.
• She left some things largely untouched: Think of the NHS, the BBC and the welfare state.

Tim Montgomerie

What Would Maggie Do?

Inspired by the Christian campaign, What Would Jesus Do? the Republicans in America already have What Would Reagan Do?  What Would Maggie Do? is a favourite media template at the moment.

The Daily Mail uses the 30th anniversary of Margaret Thatcher's election to urge David Cameron to emulate the Iron Lady.  Last Saturday Matthew Parris suggested that Mr Cameron should follow Mrs Thatcher's example in opposition and not be too specific about his plans for government.

Of course there are lots of things Margaret Thatcher can teach us.  Some of the parallels between 1979 and now are huge but there are also big differences between her times and ours.  Here are a few that should be keeping Tory strategists awake at night...

• Austerity began under Callaghan.  Margaret Thatcher inherited a situation where - because of the IMF - the government had already begun some austerity measures. Alistair Darling's Budget showed that our current government is still in denial.
• The civil service is a much less effective machine.  It has been politicised in numerous ways.  Francis Maude will need to think radically about new forms of delivery mechanism to ensure the Cameron agenda is enacted.  Making the situation potentially much more tricky David Cameron also has a frontbench team that is much, much less experienced than the Thatcher team.
• We've had a thirty year transfer of powers to the EU.  Dan Hannan says four-fifths of UK laws are made in Brussels.  Westminster is not nearly as powerful as it was in 1979.
• Public trust in politicians is much lower now than in 1979.  Their promises are much less likely to believed.  This had led many Cameroons to believe in the politics of small (and supposedly therefore more believable) promises.  What does it mean for today when only big reforms can save the public finances?
• The media moves fives time as fast.  Mrs Thatcher could appear on the BBC 6'o'clock News and be seen by twice as many Britons as she would reach today.  She could write an article for The Daily Telegraph and it would be discussed for days.  Nothing lasts as long today.  Cameron has to work harder to reach as many people and the media is likely to get bored quickly.  He won't have a honeymoon in power although Labour could be in desperate straits.  It won't be long before journalists (and, of course, thousands of bloggers) are writing their 'David Cameron has had his worst week since coming to power' stories.

Tim Montgomerie

Look out for a five pronged affirmation of "new Toryism"

When The Times described David Cameron's Conservative team as "women-free" I called it "unfair".  CCHQ went ballistic - seeing it as a dangerous attack on the modernisation agenda.  Team Cameron believes that the Tory leader couldn't have worked much harder to promote women into the shadow cabinet, into the House of Lords, into winnable Westminster seats and into the European Parliament.  Rules for selection of MEP candidates were actually changed so that women won higher rankings on regional lists even if they secured fewer votes from grassroots members*.

David Cameron wrote for The Times yesterday, setting out the progress that he's made in increasing representation of women.

In tomorrow's Times a huge number of Tory women - led by our adopted candidates - have written a letter defending David Cameron's record on female selection.

A member of the shadow cabinet told me to look out for five things in the next few months that Team Cameron would be emphasing to show that "new Toryism" is still alive and kicking - despite the "age of austerity":

1. Further promotion of women and ethnic minority Conservatives.
2. Outreach to gay rights groups (yesterday we learnt this).
3. More emphasis on environmental policies.  At Spring Forum in Cheltenham Greg Clark MP promised to make Britain the "Saudi Arabia of renewable energy."
4. Loud trumpeting of the fact that the NHS and international development are the top two Tory spending priorities.
5. More initiatives on social justice with a greater role for Iain Duncan Smith.

Tim Montgomerie

* Most women in top MEP slots received fewer votes than male rivals

Let's hope there's a secret plan

A year ago the Conservative Spring Forum was in Gateshead.  I urged the Tory leader to give a speech that levelled with the British people:

"It's time for David Cameron to tell the British people that Britain is going in the wrong direction.  He needs to say that we're living beyond our means.  We're spending too much and borrowing too much.  We have surrendered our streets to yobbery and incivility.  Britain's schools are failing the poorest members of society.  He needs to promise a government that will put things right and he should tell the British people that it won't be easy or painless.  We need to forget the focus groups and the polling for just one minute and tell the truth about a nation that is in trouble.  Mr Cameron might be surprised at voters' reaction.  Our hunch is that the first politician to tell the British people 'how it really is' will form a bond with many millions of them."

From reports it appears that David Cameron will deliver something close to that speech today, in Cheltenham.

With the considerable exception of the party's opposition to Darling's autumn stimulus (although even that was backed by considerable private polling) the Tories have been very unwilling to get ahead of public opinion on the recession.  And let's be clear: This tactic has been an enormous political success.  A second YouGov poll put the Tories 18% ahead last night.  The collapse of Labour means that it's as certain as anything in politics that David Cameron will be Prime Minister. Political success doesn't mean success for the country, of course.  New Labour were an enormous political success but did not succeed as a government. 

Hague throws rhetorical kitchen sink at the "decomposing political muckheap" that is Labour's frontbench

William Hague once promised that New Labour would first be greeted with fascination, then admiration, then disillusionment and finally contempt.

Speaking to Tory candidates in Cheltenham (right) he made the strongest and most negative attack on Labour of the Cameron era.

He described Labour as the "disgustingly grubbiest" of all administrations of the modern era.  He said that Labour had been "narrow partisan and factional" rather than statesmanlike.  The Conservatives now have a solemn duty to remove "these people" from office, he continued.  We must "spare no effort to get rid of this government."

The Shadow Foreign Secretary said as he sat opposite the Labour benches on Budget day that they looked and sounded as though they were bereft of ideas.  Disraeli once compared the government of his day to exhausted volcanoes but, said Hague, Labour ministers looked like a "decomposing political muckheap."

Tory activists have long wanted the leadership to be much more negative about Labour but Tory strategists were anxious not to get ahead of the public mood.  William Hague - who will not have acted without the agreement of Andy Coulson and George Osborne - has decided that the public mood is now at that famous contempt phase.

Tim Montgomerie

All but The Mirror may desert Labour

Newspaper endorsements are not as valuable as they once were but the editorial endorsements of a newspaper are still actively sought by politicians - not least because they tend to influence the overall news priorities of that newspaper.

Over the last 24 hours I've been speaking to journalists within all of Britain's main daily newspapers (and The Economist) - at least two on each - and speculating about their likely endorsements at the next election.

What we are likely to witness is Fleet Street making a mass defection from Labour to the Conservatives.

Only The Mirror is sure to endorse Labour.

Fleet Street's four swing voters - the FT, Economist, Times and London Evening Standard - are likely to endorse the Conservatives although no final decisions have been taken.

Commercial and ideological reasons mean that The Guardian and Independent will stop a long way short of endorsing the Conservatives but are likely to continue to give David Cameron a fairer hearing than they have given any previous Tory leader.

More details below the graphic.

The survey of likely endorsements will be hugely encouraging to the Tory machine.  Andy Coulson has coordinated targeted wooing of all of Britain's newspaper editors and proprietors.  David Cameron's office was in touch with the new owner of the London Evening Standard within hours of him assuming control of the title.  CCHQ are encouraged by the thinking across Fleet Street but assume that they will still have to work hard to ensure that each individual deal is sealed.  Most newspaper editors won't make a final decision until much, much closer to polling day.

How the Conservative machine plans to win power for David Cameron

Peter Oborne writes today that a Tory victory is far from certain.  He does not believe that there is yet a groundswell of support for David Cameron in the way there was for Tony Blair in the mid-1990s.  He also thinks that the views of many Tories on, for example, fox hunting and the NHS - as expounded this week by Edward Garnier MP and Dan Hannan MEP - could yet frighten voters.

But The Telegraph suggests that current polling in marginal seats - where the party leads by 14% - points to a big Conservative victory.  The marginal seats data is part of a major Telegraph feature that profiles key elements of the Tory plan to ensure that victory IS delivered:

Framing the election as a choice between David Cameron and Gordon Brown: CCHQ is very confident that David Cameron is a huge political asset for the party.  "The election will be all about David v Gordon [Brown], Cameron will be plastered over everything we do," a source tells The Telegraph: "Not since the focus on Margaret Thatcher will you see a Conservative campaign so focused on one person."

A focus on middle-of-the-road swing voters: Citing the decision to return Ken Clarke to the frontbench and to accept Labour's 45p tax band The Telegraph quotes a strategist as saying "there is no point in focussing on immigration, Europe and other traditional right-wing areas as it will no longer attract voters as they are already on side. But it might put some voters off."

A focus on the three big issues of healthcare, education and the economy.

Different campaigns for different seats: As already revealed by ConservativeHome the party is not just focusing on geographical clusters of marginal seats but also on "seaside towns" and "new towns", for example.  Each cluster receives a different style of literature and a different messages are emphasised.

A capacity for immediate rebuttal: "In Coleshill in the West Midlands, a rapid response unit has been established with its own printing facility. It is able to immediately print "rebuttal" leaflets which can be delivered within hours. This was trialled with devastating effect when the Lib Dems attempted a dirty trick in last year's Henley by-election. If Labour airs a damaging political broadcast, the Conservatives should be able to have a leaflet rebutting the claims on doormats before breakfast the following morning."

The Conservative's "electoral board" meets once a week to discuss tactics. Chaired by George Osborne, the board also includes Andy Coulson; Stephen Gilbert, the chief of Lord Ashcroft's polling and seats operation; and Ed Llewellyn, David Cameron's chief-of-staff.

Tim Montgomerie

The medicine manifesto

Last Wednesday I asked for ideas for unpopular policies that (a) Britain needed and (b) might, through their authenticity, cause a paradoxical increase in popularity.  I've repeated my three unpopular policy suggestions in the list below and have added seven ideas from the comments threads to produce what I've dubbed 'The medicine manifesto'.  Swallow the manifesto for five years and it should make Britain healthier...

Illness 1: Britain’s worst debt crisis.
Medicine: Years of public spending restraint including a few years of real cuts in the size of the state.

Illness 2: Hostility towards wealth creation.
Medicine: Opposition to populist measures like higher taxation of the rich that will ultimately damage the economy’s potential to create jobs.

Illness 3: Global terrorism.
Medicine: An increased commitment to Afghanistan so that the Taliban do not have the opportunity to harbour a new generation of al-Qaeda terrorist camps.

Illness 4: A human rights culture that defies common sense.
Medicine: Withdrawal from the ECHR.

Illness 5: A lack of economically-useful skills amongst the British population.
Medicine: Ending the 50% target for the proportion of the population going to university and pouring the savings into high quality apprenticeships and other forms of vocational education.

Illness 6: A police service that has lost the respect of middle England.
Medicine: Wholescale police reform and the direct election of police chiefs.

Illness 7: The lights are about to go out.
Medicine: The construction of twenty new nuclear power stations, in co-operation with France if necessary.

Illness 8: An expensive benefits and tax credit system that has introduced complexity but reduced incentives to work.
Medicine: Abolition of the tax credit system and all savings ploughed into higher income tax thresholds.

Illness 9: The growth of lifestyle illnesses including obesity.
Medicine: The NHS should charge people who call on medical help because of lifestyle choices.  The charge does not need to represent 100% of the cost of treatment.  In some cases the charge would be token.

Illness 10: A generation that doesn’t know anything about British history, can’t cook and doesn’t know what an APR is.
Medicine: Compulsory home economics, history and financial literacy education for all schoolchildren.

Tim Montgomerie

How much should George Osborne reveal on tax and spending plans?

All the details are on today's ConservativeHome frontpage but there is some confusion about yesterday's seemingly get-tough message from George Osborne on public sector pay.  The FT leads its morning edition with the story - headlining 'Tories take risk over pay and pensions' - but The Times says that advisers to Mr Osborne "backtracked" from the idea of a confrontation with the unions.  The Daily Mail, in a leader praising Vince Cable, accuses the Shadow Chancellor of "muttering" about public spending control but lacking a clear plan.

It's the biggest question facing the Tories this side of the election: How much should be said about post-election plans on tax and spending?  We asked Tory members for advice for the party leadership.  On a forced question we asked members to choose between three options:

1. Maximum openness: "Closer to the election the Conservative Party should give voters a very honest and open indication of the changes to tax and spending that will be necessary to restore order to the public finances."
2. Medium openness: "The Conservatives should avoid specifics but lay out the general principles for recovery in the public finances, saying that spending will be brought under control and taxes increased if necessary."
3. Minimum openness: "The Conservative Party should say that the economic situation is grim and we cannot write a budget until we have seen the books."

The results confirm that it's not an easy choice...!

Tim Montgomerie

"I want to be forgotten as party chairman... The really successful party chairmen are the ones you don't really remember": Eric Pickles talks to ConservativeHome two months into his new role

It's a couple of months now since Eric Pickles took up the role of Conservative Party Chairman, and by all accounts he is loving the job - rather like the child who has finally been allowed to take the controls of the train set. Yet there is only one thing on which he is focusing - winning the general election - and when I met him in his office at CCHQ to talk about how he is settling into the new job, he refused to be distracted from that aim.

"What I'm trying to bring to this job and to the building is a focus on the election; if it ain't about the election, we've got to think about it in 18 months’ time," he asserts. "Nothing matters to me more than these elections in June and the one that will follow at some time. And that's what I'm here to do. There are some people placed as party chairman to be great reformers of the party. My job is to make sure this place is working happily, contentedly, but focused on those elections."

Party employees tell me that they have been impressed with his approach to the job, not least the little ways in which he shows his appreciation for what they do. Personalised notes arrive when someone is deemed to merit special praise and I gather that he also sends birthday cards to all CCHQ staff.

"Part of my job... is to encourage folk," he says. " I'm here to bring the best out of people, I'm not here to throw my weight around. You can either stand at this door and shout at people or you can wander up to their desk and just encourage. I want to ensure that everyone feels part of a big team. They're not doing it for the money, they're working as part of a cause they feel committed to. I think that has to be recognised."

He does a full tour of CCHQ once a week in order to get that chance to speak one-to-one with employees and one of his first decisions in the job was to reinstate a weekly staff meeting.

"It's about showing people what we're doing, why we're doing it and how we're going to be doing it.  I hope that's made a difference, and I'm told folks appreciate that."

Have we reached the point where the Conservatives can win a working Commons majority?

The Daily Telegraph's Philip Johnston is one of my favourite columnists and his well-researched, analytical pieces are always well worth reading.

In today's Telegraph, he turns his attention to whether or not David Cameron has taken the Conservative Party to a position in which it will win enough seats to form a majority government after the next election.

He draws widely on comparisons between recent YouGov polls and similar surveys undertaken during the 1990s:

"In a poll early in 1995, Mr Blair ranked as the most highly esteemed leader of any opposition party since records began, with 68 per cent approval ratings. More than 55 per cent thought he would make the best prime minister. Compare those figures with the findings of the latest YouGov poll... Mr Cameron is seen as the best prime minister by 33 per cent, compared with 36 per cent who don't know (though 43 per cent choose him in a head to head with Gordon Brown).

"When voters are asked which party can best run the economy, about one third think the Tories can. And while this is a greater proportion than have confidence in Labour's economic acumen, this is, let us remember, in the midst of possibly the worst economic crisis since the 1930s."

Going on to point out the various ways in which the electoral system is loaded against the Conservatives - over-representation for Labour in Wales and the inner cities, lower turnouts in Labour areas etc - he repeats the stark electoral arithmetic which will face the Conservatives at the next election.

"We will be the most unpopular government in memory by the end of our first six months."

That quote comes from a "senior Cameroon" according to Matthew d'Ancona in The Sunday Telegraph.

The Spectator's Editor sees Friday's apology from David Cameron as an attempt to wipe the slate clean; not just a clever tactical attempt to put Gordon Brown in the spotlight for his failure to say 'sorry'.  He writes:

"As the self-styled "heir to Blair", Cameron initially branded himself as a Blairite with a blue rosette: he would be "post-Blair", rather than "anti-Blair", completing the New Labour revolution in public services rather than turning back the clock. He would reclaim for the Tory Party the centre ground that Blair had commanded for more than a decade and that Brown had vacated. He would spend less than New Labour – but still spend prodigiously. Though he would have objected strenuously to being described as such, Cameron Mark One was in many respects a "consensus" politician. Well, no longer. In Birmingham on Friday, the man who will probably be prime minister in little more than a year disowned the very same consensus, apologised for his part in it, and urged the voters to brace themselves for tough decisions. By saying sorry, he wiped the slate clean. And in politics, there is nothing more thrilling, or more alarming, than a newly-cleaned slate."

What will Mr Cameron write on to this clean slate?  An end to certain public spending pledges?  Overall cuts in public spending?  Tax rises?  A new regulatory regime?  Time will tell.

Tim Montgomerie

'The Left must rescue Cameron from the Tory Right'

That's Jenni Russell's message in her column for The Guardian.  She accepts that the Conservatives are almost certain to be Britain's next government and she encourages the Left to engage with David Cameron and avoid him (a) failing or/and (b) coming under the influence of the dreadful Tory right:

"The dominance of the progressive wing of the party can't be taken for granted. It is a fragile thing, and if it is to succeed it needs constructive criticism. I asked two insiders how many people in the party were fully behind this new Toryism. "Ten," said one, "but it's an important ten." Another said grimly: "Twenty-two - the shadow cabinet." Standing behind the more socially responsible Conservatives are plenty of gin-drinking, Mail-reading Tories nostalgic for the harshness of Thatcherism. They would cheer, along with the left, if this experiment failed."

A few observations:

The Cameroons tend to be dazzled by wooing from the Left: I do worry that the Cameroons are too flattered by the Guardian and other left-wing organisations that show them interest.  It's true that the Conservative project needs to be broadly based but there's too much fascination with unsatisfactory ideas like Red Toryism and nudging.  Old fashioned ideas like Margaret Thatcher's housewife economics may not be so sexy but they are the ones that will get our country out of Labour's economic mess.

Will the Left cool on Cameron if he pursues his social agenda? The most genuine (and important) thing about Project Cameron is its interest in social renewal.  It will be interesting to see how the Left's view of a Cameron government evolves if it stays true to its poverty-fighting agenda of emphasising marriage, faith-based charities, welfare reform, school choice and harm avoidance approaches to drug addiction.

The Right lacks coherence: Jenni Russell's caricature of the Tory Right is ridiculous but the Right is now very hard to define.  There is no great unifying force behind it if it exists at all anymore.  There is certainly no accepted definition of Thatcherism.  The Tory Right is split on Europe, foreign policy and confused on economics.  It has no leader although David Davis, Iain Duncan Smith, Michael Fallon, Liam Fox, John Hayes, Edward Leigh, Owen Paterson, John Redwood and John Whittingdale all represent important strands.

The ten who get it: And who are the "ten" who are fully behind the undefined "new Toryism"?  I am only sure of six...

1. David Cameron, of course.
2. George Osborne, more socially liberal and more hawkish than DC but the tactical brain of the whole project.
3. Steve Hilton, the strategic brain responsible for the decontamination project, for the emphasis on green issues and social responsibility.
4. Edward Llewellyn, Cameron's Chief of Staff, gatekeeper and hugely influential in the evolution towards 'realpolitik' in foreign policy.
5. Oliver Letwin, responsible for putting together the overall policy programme of the next government and intellectually its Gandalf.
6. Michael Gove, hugely trusted by David Cameron and responsible for the education brief that is intended to be the most radical of his government....

There are others, of course, who are hugely influential - Lord Ashcroft, Andy Coulson, Andrew MacKay are stand outs - but the above six would be my candidates for being fully behind the "new Toryism" and who are at the centre of power.

Tim Montgomerie

Should the Conservative Opposition do more opposing?

Iain Dale wrote a short but exasperated blog post late last night in which he expressed his frustration at the Conservatives' failure to oppose the Government on two measures yesterday: the part-privatisation of the Post Office and the blocking of the release of Cabinet minutes discussing the decision to go to war in Iraq.

On the latter issue, I am on the record as writing here just last month that Cabinet minutes are best kept private if we seriously want a return to Cabinet government, so I wholeheartedly back Jack Straw on that one;  on the Post Office my instinct too is that the Conservatives are right to back the Government.

But do you agree? Should the attitude of being a mature opposition, supporting the Government when it is doing the right thing, be scrapped in favour of bashing Labour whenever it might be politically expedient to do so?

Or should the party always put the country first, supporting Labour on certain issues, even if it means foregoing the possibility of inflicting an embarrassing defeat or two on the Government?

Jonathan Isaby

Senior Tories ponder "generous outreach" to Liberal Democrats in event of Tory win

Senior Tories are debating the extent of outreach that should be made to the Liberal Democrats in the event of the Conservatives becoming the governing party at the next General Election.

Tory strategists are hopeful that the next election will see the Liberal Democrat parliamentary party significantly reduced in size but they also believe that the Conservatives have a long-term interest in ensuring that Britain's third party looks as much to the Conservative Party as to the Labour Party as a future natural coalition partner.

I understand that a group of shadow ministers believe that one of Tony Blair's bigger strategic mistakes was to row back on co-operation with the Liberal Democrats when he won such a large Commons majority in 1997.  These shadow ministers believe that - contrary to Labour's 'under-delivery' to the LibDems - the Conservatives should deliver more in practical co-operation in government than they promise in opposition.

The discussion is not of ministerial positions - although there might be some significant appointments to policy reviews - but of working groups on issues of shared interest.  Action on civil liberties and on green issues are on the table.

Tim Montgomerie

PS Congratulations to Nick Clegg this morning.  His wife has given birth to the couple's third child, a son.

2pm: Peter Hoskin at Coffee House sees merit in the plan: "As for the Tories and their wider strategy, shacking up with the Lib Dems makes a whole load of sense. Not only would it isolate Labour, but it meets calls for bipartisanship-in-government to deal with the economic crisis."

Tuesday, 7.30am: LibDemVoice responds to this post.

Is David Cameron a secret radical?

Most Tory members think David Cameron is too cautious.  In this week's leader (not yet online), The Spectator offers three arguments for believing that the Tory leader might be more radical than some believe:

• On localism: "The ending of Whitehall capping powers and the introduction of local referendums to enable residents to overturn bad budgets would be a very desirable transference of financial control from the mandarin to the man in the street. The removal of disincentives to build houses, the devolution of planning power, the plans to plough the fruits of local businesses back into the community, the proposed statutory presumption enabling town halls to act in the best interests of their voters, even if no specific legislation supports their actions: all these measures, if matched by serious political will, would be significant steps towards the growth of a genuine localist culture." [I worry, however, that only controlling instincts have been on show in opposition].
• On schools: "The Spectator has pressed, and will continue to press, for more grammar schools. But the Conservatives’ plan to adopt the Swedish model of independent schools, enabling parents, voluntary groups and businesses to establish their own educational establishments funded by vouchers, is a truly radical blueprint which we support wholeheartedly. The Swedish experiment has shown how the liberalisation of public services can triumph where top-down, centralised bureaucracies and targets have failed."  Definitely.  Michael Gove is the most oustanding member of Mr Cameron's team.
• On marriage and the family: "On the family, Mr Cameron is much more radical than his recent predecessors, daring to state explicitly what is empirically obvious: that the family is the fundamental building-block of any social order and requires unambiguous support from government. On the Broken Society, he has faced down those in his party nervous of speaking the truth about welfare dependency, addiction, dysfunctional families and forgotten communities."  Mr Cameron says he's a "marriage nut" and ConHome welcomes that but we've yet to see policies that are up to the job of addressing the scale of the problem.

The area where radicalism is most going to be required is, of course, on the economy.  When will the Tory leadership tell us how it will restore order to Gordon Brown's terrible fiscal position? A serious programme to control spending will almost certainly necessitate radical reform of the state.

Tim Montgomerie

The defections have started

The Sunday Telegraph has the story of Labour's welfare guru, David Freud, and his journey towards becoming a Tory peer.

Fraser Nelson writes (my emphasis):

"This gives several deeply encouraging signals. First, Cameron is willing to identify genuine experts: he is serious about reform. The appointment of May had, I confess, led me to question this. Next, Cameron is getting serious defections. I hear that more are in the pipeline. And most importantly. Cameron is mature enought to identify and bolster the best ideas of this exhausted Labour Government. Welfare reform and City Academies are great ideas, and if you let the momentum slack then you lose years on the reform agenda. The Blairites did have excellent ideas for government, and Brown hasn't managed to destroy them all. As I say in my News of the World column tomorrow, all they need now is Lord Adonis. He was, after all, a LibDem once. Surely he could go for a hat trick?"

Tim Montgomerie

2pm, 15th February: Statement from David Cameron:

“One of the biggest challenges facing the next Government will be that of mass unemployment and how we can get Britain back to work.   David Freud is a hugely impressive figure who has done more than anyone else to highlight how we can do just that and I am delighted that he has agreed to join my frontbench team.”

Tories consider '21st Century Domesday Book' that would define Labour for a generation

The Winter of Discontent and images of rubbish uncollected and unburied dead were used by the Thatcher governments to define the economic and social failure of the 1970s Labour Party.

ConservativeHome understands that Tory strategists are considering a bold attempt to find a 21st Century equivalent that would define the Labour Party for another generation.

Under consideration is the compilation of a Domesday Book analysis of Labour's legacy.  It would be one of the first acts of an incoming Conservative government.  New Cabinet ministers would be ordered to prepare an audit of their portfolios.  Four to six weeks later a Domesday statement of the extent of public borrowing, the weakness of the nation's energy infrastructure, the weakness of family structure and so on would be published.  As well as serving as a statement of challenges it would then be hung around the neck of the Labour Party.

Tim Montgomerie

4pm: Other blogs on this story:

• James Forsyth: The Tories are right to be thinking about how to buy time once they are in government
• Iain Martin: Tories consider a "Labour Domesday Book" if they win the general election

David Cameron to set out the four aims of "Progressive Conservatism"

David Cameron is making a speech to Demos this afternoon in which he will set out the four aims of "Progressive Conservatism" as:

• a fair society
• a green environment
• safety for citizens
• equal opportunity

The Evening Standard characterises the speech as being designed to show the party's desire to "use Conservative policies to achieve traditionally Left-leaning ends such as the abolition of child poverty and increased social mobility", thereby attempting to appeal to Labour and Lib Dem-inclined voters.

Tim is going to be attending the speech, so check back here later for full coverage and analysis of what David Cameron has to say.

Update: Tim has posted here.

Jonathan Isaby

David Cameron claims similarity between the Tory and Obama messages

This from conservatives.com:

"David Cameron praised Barack Obama for setting out “a different agenda” and for putting the emphasis on responsibility ahead of his inauguration.  In a radio interview on 5 Live, David stressed, “He’s not saying, ‘I will make all the changes myself’; he’s not saying ‘I’m a top-down politician who can just pull the levers and change the world.’ He’s saying we are all in this together and we have all got to bring this change about.”

David welcomed Obama’s message that change comes when everyone plays their part – and stressed, “What I find so convincing about his speeches and about what I think he will say today is this emphasis on responsibility.”

David said today would be an “emotional” day, with America having gone from segregation to a black President in a few decades.   “The most emotional thing I found was when you watched those people in America talking about how they took pictures of their parents into the polling stations - that really brought home to me just what it means to people to see this happen.”"

Earlier today Ben Brogan noted that Team Obama will have observed Brown's falling poll ratings.  America's 44th President will know that they may have a year of Brown in Downing Street but the strong likelihood is that the vast majority of his presidency will overlap with David Cameron as UK PM.

> Full text of Obama's Inaugural Address

Update: David Cameron issued this statement to the Wall Street Journal: ""Responsibility is the most defining value of my politics. So for me the most important phrase in the speech was this: "What is required of us now is a new era of responsibility". This passage was important because he wasn't saying that he can change the world single-handedly, he was saying that it is only if we all do our bit that we can get the change we want. Before he'd even moved into the White House he'd already achieved something that only the greatest Presidents achieve: inspiring people to have faith in their capacity to make a difference in the world."

Cameron and Osborne are close to a winning economic message (and a project for government)

On Coffee House yesterday Fraser Nelson was marvelling at the size of Barack’s. Much bigger than Gordon’s. Even Angela Merkel now has one. So, too, does Stephen Harper. Almost every politician of left and right is keen to show off the size of their fiscal stimulus.

Standing aside from the herd is Britain’s Conservative Party. I think bravely and correctly.

The stance is producing charges of being the do-nothing party from Labour. The do-nothing attack is clearly ridiculous. David Cameron and George Osborne supported the biggest bank bailout in British history. They have endorsed reductions in interest rates to levels never seen before in this country. They are advocating £50bn of guarantees for bank lending. There is nothing passive about the Tory economic policy but, crucially, the party hasn’t thrown away all sense of prudence in the rush to do something… the rush to do anything.

In five years’ time – perhaps sooner – economists and others will be examining the fiscal measures now being rushed into effect by Washington, London and Berlin. My prediction is that we will be reflecting on an orgy of wasteful spending.  We’ll be reflecting on job creation programmes that created no lasting employment and infrastructure spending that produced bridges to nowhere.  Japan is littered with infrastructural white elephants from its failed 1990s fiscal stimulus. The white elephants of this decade’s fiscal stimuli are more likely to have a sickly green hue. Fiscal stimuli cannot be fast AND effective.  Well planned spending programmes won’t impact the economy for some time.  Immediately impactful spending programmes cannot be well planned. 

The Conservatives, of course, need a message now.  Brown is trying to frame the political choice before the British people as the choice between the do-what-it-takes Labour Party and the do-nothing Conservatives.  That’s not a fair choice.  The real choice is between a Labour Party careless with the British people’s money – think Millennium Dome, NHS supercomputer, tax credits fiasco, gold mis-selling and a pointless £12bn VAT cut – and a government that will treat every taxpayer pound with great respect.  This choice needs to be communicated with some anger.  The scale of Labour waste is breathtaking.

Just as David Cameron gives too many speeches, The Sunday Times' David Smith is right to point out that George Osborne sends out too many press releases.  Rather than commenting on every economic development the Tories need one big economic message and I think that David Cameron and George Osborne are almost there (and they've been right to take their time).  ‘We will spend your money wisely’ isn’t just an election-winning position.  It’s the beginning of a great work; the restoration of sanity to the public finances. 

Tim Montgomerie

David Cameron's New Year message

Just released by CCHQ and published in full below. In his message the Conservative leader promises that he won't drop his green, social justice and international responsibility agendas but will "step up the pace" on them.  He accuses Labour of losing its moral compass and of being "corrupted by power".  Boris' message is also pasted at the end of the post.

“In my New Year message three years ago, I said that I wanted the modern Conservative Party to be a voice for change, optimism and hope.  What was true in the good times is even truer now that times are tough, and getting tougher.  People are looking to us for hope in these dark days, and we must be ready to offer it: hard-edged hope, built on a clear-sighted analysis of what has gone wrong and how we can put it right.

That provides this Party with three important tasks for 2009.  First, we must show that we have learned the lessons of Labour’s Debt Crisis and will never let it happen again.  Second, we must offer constructive and positive ideas to help keep people in work and in their homes, and make sure the recession is as short, shallow and painless as possible.  But third and perhaps most important of all, we must set out our positive vision of change: to describe the new economy and the new society that we want to build once the recession is over and the recovery underway.

Shadow cabinet to retain outside interests after all

It was being suggested at the beginning of November that David Cameron intended putting an end to members of the Shadow Cabinet retaining lucrative outside interests.

However, the FT is now reporting that he has been forced to backtrack amid a potential rebellion from within the ranks.

It cites one anonymous shadow cabinet member as blaming the previous report on "kite-flying" by the well-paid strategist Steve Hilton:

“Even if no one quit, this would have created real unhappiness and why sour things now? You’d get people calling on the party to pay their tax bills for next year and asking why Andy Coulson [Mr Cameron’s press chief] is paid so much more than them."

Shadow business secretary, Alan Duncan, was typically robust in his defence of senior shadow ministers retaining outside interests:

“Better to be part-time wise than full-time ignorant.”

I am sympathetic to the view that a blanket ban on all outside jobs would be wrong and that there is only a problem if any outside interests are adversely affecting an individual's ability to carry out his front bench duties.

However, in order to be taken as a serious government-in-waiting, politics has to come first and I was somewhat concerned recently to hear the following story about a member of the shadow cabinet: he had apparently already told David Cameron that he didn't want a higher profile post than that which he currently holds in advance of the general election, because he didn't want to give up other interests on account of time commitments or potential conflicts of interest involved in a different post.

Such an attitude at this juncture is unacceptable.

Jonathan Isaby

Forget the talk of an early election

This morning's YouGov poll, published in the Daily Telegraph, is surely the final nail in the coffin of any speculation about Gordon Brown calling a snap general election early in the New Year.

After the Prime Minister bottled calling an election in the autumn of 2007, I have always taken the view that it would be a long Parliament with a general election not taking place until 2010.

I was further convinced of this when Alistair Darling predicted in the pre-Budget report that the economy would begin growing again in the third quarter of next year: most experts view this as a very optimistic forecast, but he made it nonetheless. As such, calling an election before next autumn would surely enable the Conservatives and the media to make the charge that Brown was cutting and running in advance of a longer than predicted recession. "What do you know that you're not telling us?" we would be entitled to ask.

All the same, with a seeming "Brown bounce" in the polls, there has been almost fevered speculation around Westminster over the last fortnight about the idea of Brown going to the country in the late winter or spring of 2009. But I would venture that this bounce has now come to an end.

Whilst it is always unwise to look at any one poll in isolation, a trend is beginning to emerge as far as the recent YouGov polls are concerned, with increasing Tory leads of 4%, 6% and now 7% being recorded over the last month.

And assuming that this trend continues as the economic news gets worse, I am more convinced than ever that the election is a long way off - a view shared by two political editors writing in this morning's papers.

Andrew Porter writes in the Telegraph:

"The Tories have talked themselves onto an election war footing, but if Mr Brown would not countenance one when a Telegraph poll put him 11 points head in September last year a seven point deficit is hardly the stuff that will embolden him."

Meanwhile, Andrew Grice - presumably writing before the figures of the latest poll emerged - states in the Independent:

"While it might boost Mr Brown's prospects to hold an election in mid-recession, he knows that calling one might boomerang. It could look like an attempt to exploit the downturn to extend his mandate, a dangerous act when people feel little real affection for any party... So talk of a snap February 2009 poll is wide of the mark... he knows the bounce will probably end soon. That is why he is unlikely to call an election in 2009."

Of course, it is right that CCHQ should be prepared to fight an election whenever it is called, but I think that those charged with running the campaign should now be able to enjoy a rather more relaxed Christmas.

Jonathan Isaby

Gordon Brown will grant David Cameron access to the civil service in the New Year

In my earlier post about Gordon Brown's performance at his press conference on CentreRight, I also mentioned that the Prime Minister failed to answer Ben Brogan's question about whether or not he would honour Tony Blair's previous promise to give David Cameron and the shadow cabinet access to the civil service as of the New Year.

This has always been offered by convention to the Opposition, in order that they can discuss with Whitehall departments what they would hope to be doing if elected into office.

Ben Brogan has now got his response:

"Barely two hours later and the fax machine in Mr Cameron's office has whirred out a letter from the Prime Minister confirming that yes indeed, those meetings can go ahead as agreed by Tony Blair in 2006. So from January 1st, Conservative front benchers will be free to open talks with senior officials about implementing the Conservative manifesto in 2010, assuming it ever comes to that."

Quite right too. Any attempt to renege on the previously agreed arrangement would have been an outrageously partisan act.

Jonathan Isaby

"Barely two hours later and the fax machine in Mr Cameron's office has whirred out a letter from the Prime Minister confirming that yes indeed, those meetings can go ahead as agreed by Tony Blair in 2006. So from January 1st, Conservative front benchers will be free to open talks with senior officials about implementing the Conservative manifesto in 2010, assuming it ever comes to that."

Quite right too. Any attempt to renege on the previously agreed arrangement would have been an outrageously partisan act.

Jonathan Isaby