Further to the ComRes survey, news of a second poll out tomorrow; it's a YouGov poll in the Sunday Times:
Comparisons are with the YouGov poll taken on the day of the Pre-Budget report, meaning an increase in the Tory lead from 4% to 6%.
Fieldwork was conducted on Thursday and Friday.
These numbers would leave the Conservaitves 20 seats short of an overall majority, according to Electoral Calculus.
UK Polling Report has news of a poll in tomorrow's Independent on Sunday:
The changes are compared with the ComRes poll in the Independent on 2nd December.
The fieldwork for this latest poll was done on Wednesday and Thursday.
Electoral Calculus suggests that these latest figures - on a uniform national swing etc - would give Labour a majority of 20.
Update: More information on John Rentoul's blog
A Populus poll for tomorrow's Times has a Tory lead of 4%, down from a lead of 6% in the same poll last month.
The figures are summarised below:
It is the narrowest lead for the party in a Populus poll since March.
The fieldwork for this survey was done between Friday and Sunday.
After a couple of encouraging polls in the immediate wake of the Pre-Budget Report, tomorrow's Independent carries a new ComRes poll which reduces the Conservative lead over Labour to a single percentage point.
The figures are:
If repeated at the next General Election this is projected to give Labour an overall majority of 10 in the House of Commons.
The poll was conducted between Friday and Sunday and shows a significant boost in Labour support among its working class support base (Labour backing rising from 35 per cent to 51 per cent in the last month among the DE social group).
The Tory lead is its narrowest in any poll since January, when an Ipsos MORI survey put Labour one point ahead.
Jonathan Isaby
7am, Tuesday: "Labour's private polling has found strong support among the party's traditional supporters for the Chancellor Alistair Darling's surprise decision to bring in a higher top rate of tax in 2011. One Labour source said last night: "People wanted to see decisive action taken on the economy. What is hurting the Tories is that they have boxed themselves into a corner where they are the 'do-nothing' party." Although some Tory MPs are worried that the party is suffering from a lack of economic policies, allies of David Cameron are urging them to "hold their nerve". They believe the polls will turn against Labour next year as the recession bites." - The Independent
A week is a long time in politics, as the saying goes, and the last seven days are certainly testament to that.
The week began with Alistair Darling's Pre-Budget Report, which showed the country heading for record borrowing, and a devastating attack on the Government's economic record by George Osborne.
The following day, Nick Wood wrote on this website that Labour had made it virtually impossible for themselves to win the next election. And the opinion polls published this weekend - carried out since Monday's PBR - would seem to back up that assertion, showing Tory leads of 15 per cent and 11 per cent respectively.
But those polls were both taken before the full details emerged about the arrest of Tory immigration spokesmen Damian Green on Thursday afternoon.
And whilst his plight has understandably had less media prominence on account of the terrorist atrocities in India, I believe that the public will feel a sense of outrage about his treatment and the position of the Government in the whole affair, which, even if not complicit (as it claims), has stood by, unconcerned about the implications it has for democratic accountability of the executive.
Will we be able to look back in 18 months' time and conclude that this was the week which determined the result of the next election?
Jonathan Isaby
An ICM poll for tomorrow's Guardian suggests voters are unimpressed with the PBR.
The Tory lead is up to 15%.
"Since the last Populus poll on November 7 to 9, Mr Brown has dropped sharply as the best leader “right now, to deal with Britain's economy in recession”, from 52 to 42 per cent, with a big fall among the middle classes. But he is still ahead of David Cameron, on 36 per cent, up four points. Meanwhile, Mr Cameron is still ahead, by 41 to 33 per cent, as the preferred leader to take Britain forward after the next general election." Much more in The Times here.
PS Coffee House is right. A Tory story (involving a shadow minister) is about to break...
More in The Telegraph.
The poll was conducted yesterday evening and today; largely BEFORE the negative press coverage had an opportunity to impact and the leaked reports of a VAT increase to 18.5%.
An ICM poll for The Sunday Mirror has the Conservatives on 42% (-1%), Labour 31% (+1%), LibDems 19% (+1). Changes compared with 8th November.
Graphic after X factor.
9.15pm:
Events are moving so fast now but MORI has just published an opinion poll lead for the Tories of just 3%.
Compared to one month ago, the Conservatives are down 5% to 40%. Labour are up 7% to 37%. The LibDems are down 2% to 12%. The fieldwork was carried out from 14th to 16th November. As the CH graphic records, the ConHome Poll of Polls is now back in hung parliament territory:
1.15pm: "Brown’s personal ratings have increased from last month: while half (50%) remain dissatisfied with Gordon Brown, this figure has dropped 9 points from 59% last month and 19 points from 69% in September. In addition, his satisfaction ratings have risen six points to 41% in November. It seems that Brown’s leadership during the current economic situation (both nationally and internationally) has served to improve his personal ratings with the public." (From MORI).
John Rentoul has news of the Independent on Sunday/Com Res poll out tomorrow:
Con - 43% (+4)
Lab - 32% (+1)
Lib Dem - 12% (-4)
Oth - 13% (-1)
In contrast to the You Gov/Sunday Times poll also out tomorrow, it shows the Conservative lead widening, with a significant dip in Lib Dem ratings...
9.30am, Sunday, here's the graphic:
Political Betting is reporting that tomorrow's You Gov poll in the Sunday Times has the following standings for the parties:
Con - 41% (-1)
Lab - 36% (+3)
LD - 14% (-1)
So the Conservatives remain above the crucial 40% mark, but with a narrower lead.
We are also expecting a ComRes survey in tomorrow's Independent on Sunday, which we will run once it is published.
9.30am, Sunday, the graphic:
From The Times: Conservatives 41 (-4%), Labour 35 (+5), LibDems 16% (up 1%).
More later.
10.45pm: The graphic...
That's the message of an ICM survey for tomorrow's Sunday Telegraph:
The previous ICM survey - three weeks ago - found Labour Conservatives ahead by 12%. It appears that the Brown bounce hasn't yet dissipated but it's not close to being enough to win the next election.
Team Cameron remain convinced that as recession bites the electorate's appetite for real change will grow. Like Barack Obama, the New Zealand Nationals campaigned with a 'time to change' message and have today ended nine years of Labour rule.
But it's just one poll - ComRes for The Independent. The overall ConservativeHome Poll of Polls is still pointing to a Tory majority of 64. The fieldwork for the poll was begun after the 'Yatchgate' controversy had broken.
Former Tory MP Michael Brown is savage in today's Independent about the party's response to the economic crisis:
"The Tories should be worried if they cannot maintain substantial poll leads at the very moment voters are about to pay the price of 11 years of New Labour. But the Cameron mantra of "sharing the proceeds of economic growth between tax cuts and public spending" is redundant when the economy is in recession. However, fearful of being trapped again as the party of cuts, the Tories are frightened to spell out the obvious truth that Mr Brown's resort to Keynesian pump-priming will be a failure. Neither Mr Cameron nor Mr Osborne has the courage to present an alternative economic policy because it is becoming obvious they do not have one."
The Conservatives do, of course, have an economic policy - based around creating the room for sustainable interest rate cuts - and yesterday we called for it to be articulated.
The Tories will be happy with this Ipsos MORI poll, conducted from the 17th to 19th October.
The big changes are from the previous Ipsos MORI survey which put the Conservatives on 52%.
There's much more within the detail of this poll which we'll report later.
Where is the much-talked-about Brown bounce?
An ICM survey for tomorrow's Guardian finds the two main parties in exactly the same place as immediately after the Conservative Party Conference.
The most striking difference between this ICM survey and today's YouGov survey is the number for the LibDems. YouGov gives the LibDems 7% less support.
More in the Daily Mirror. A ComRes survey yesterday showed the Tories 9% ahead.
Key findings in a ICM poll for the News of the World:
More from the NotW's Ian Kirby here.
8.15pm: And there's this from ComRes in The Independent on Sunday:
PoliticalBetting is emphasising that Brown is STILL 9% behind after an avalanche of positive coverage; Guido is emphasising that the Tory lead is down (just) to single figures (as we expected would happen). We tend to agree with PB.com although there is one worrying number for the Conservatives:
If David Cameron had been prime minister, he would have handled the bank crisis better than Gordon Brown:
Agree 25% Disagree 56%.
10.45pm: A BPIX poll for the Mail on Sunday: "When voters are asked who they would vote for in an emergency General Election on the economy, Mr Cameron scores 45 per cent, with Labour only six points behind on 39. But when the economic crisis is removed from the question and voters concentrate on wider issues, the picture changes dramatically. The Tory rating rises to 46 while Labour slumps to 30, 16 points behind, with Nick Clegg’s Liberal Democrats on a lowly 13."
Today's opinion poll for YouGov in the Sunday Times has the Conservatives ten points ahead of Labour:
Anthony Wells of YouGov and UK Polling Report comments:
"The poll was conducted between the 9th and 10th October so, while the Populus poll in the middle of week would have caught part of the recent economic troubles, this is the first poll to taken after the government’s rescue plan. While the change from YouGov’s last poll isn’t that dramatic, looking at the wider trend it is a significant improvement for the government when you consider that from May to September YouGov were consistently showing Tory leads in the region of 20 points."
Wells notes that while the poll shows more trust for Brown and Darling than Cameron and Osborne in the current crisis, it also shows a preference for the Conservative team over longer-term issues like the standard of living.
Few voters welcome the return of Peter Mandelson.
> Over at ConservativeInternational we note that many centre right parties are suffering from the financial global crisis.
The Times has the full details of its Populus poll.
On the economy it finds:
"On competence, who do you most trust to deal with Britain’s economic problems, the Cameron/George Osborne team has been static since the spring on 38 per cent, against 31 per cent for Brown and Alistair Darling. The number saying neither or don’t know has more than doubled to 29 per cent since a year ago. This suggests a degree of uncertainty about whether either of the main parties’ teams can deal with current economic troubles."
At 15.4% in the ConservativeHome Poll of Polls, Nick Clegg is 0.8% below the level left by Ming Campbell.
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