ConservativeHome's ToryDiary

William Hague launches 'Commission on Transport in the north'

Sorry for the lack of proper coverage but please read all about it in this pdf.  The Commission was launched earlier today by William Hague and Theresa Villiers.  We'll request a Platform piece from one of its members...

Swing to Tories is greatest in Midlands

On Saturday night we noted the huge PoliticsHome survey of marginal seats and its projection of a 146 Tory majority.  Individual constituency profiles are for sale.  The regional swings have caught our attention from within the executive summary.  Here's a league table of Labour to Conservative swings:

1. East Midlands: 16%
2. West Midlands hinterland: 16%
3. London commuter belt: 14.5%
4. North East: 14%
5. Labour's southern bastions: 13%
6. North West: 13%
7. Urban West Midlands: 13%
8. Welsh marginals: 12.5%
9. Outer London: 10.5%
10. Seaside towns: 10.5%
11. West Yorkshire: 10.5%
12. Inner London: 9.5%
13. Scottish marginals: 7.5%
14. Cumbria: 6.5%

Has Ruth Kelly just handed the Conservatives a winning issue in Greater Manchester?

BBC is reporting that Ruth Kelly has told the Commons that she backs congestion charging for Greater Manchester.  There will be a charge of up to £5 from 2013 combined with £2.8bn to create a "world-class public transport system".

Theresa Villiers, Shadow Transport Secretary, has wasted no time in seeing the political danger for Labour and the political opportunity for the Conservatives:

"Ruth Kelly is so desperate to push Greater Manchester into being a guinea pig for national road pricing that she is willing to stake her own parliamentary seat on it. At a time when fuel prices are at record high, and the Government is punishing drivers with sky high VED increases, Mrs Kelly is now going to hit low income earners in Greater Manchester with a 8 per cent tax on getting into work. Bullying Manchester into congestion charging is a high risk strategy for Ruth Kelly and she may find her Bolton West voters punish her at the general election for the plans she is announcing today. She needs to decide if she is going to stand up for her constituents or for her failing Government’s road pricing agenda."

Altrincham and Sale West MP Graham Brady attacked the whole scheme as "absurdly complex".  There will be two charging boundaries, rather than London's one.  Cars will be charged every time that they cross the boundary.  And rather than copying London's simple discount for residents there may be a means-tested discount for low income people.

Other 'local' issues playing to Labour's disadvantage: Post office closures, Polyclinics, A&E wards, Heathrow expansion, Ecotowns.

Lord Bates of the North*

One of the great successes of the last two years has been Conservative progress in the northern England.  The victory in Crewe and Nantwich follows local government successes across the north - including in Blackpool, Chester, South Ribble, Bury, Wakefield and North Tyneside.  The renewal of the Conservative Party is a leading explanation for this progress but the Campaign North initiative also deserves enormous credit (as we have noted before):

1. Funds raised in the north stay in the north.
2. There are Shadow City Ministers in Sheffield, Leeds, Hull, Liverpool, Manchester, Tyneside, Wearside and Teesside.
3. There has been a doubling of the professional staff in the North and the opening of new fully equipped campaign centres in Bradford, Salford and Newcastle.
4. The Bradford Campaign Centre opened by Party Chairman, Caroline Spelman in September 2007, is the most modern and best equipped political campaigning facility outside of London.
5. More visits to the north by David Cameron than any Conservative leader in modern times.

Lots of people deserve credit for Campaign North especially William Hague who has provided tireless leadership of the Northern Board and the
campaigning effort, but Michael Bates, Deputy Chairman of the Party
responsible for Campaign North, a Conservative MP from 1992 to 1997, and
former Paymaster General, pictured above (right), played an integral role in its formation and development.  ConservativeHome learnt overnight - via the Downing Street website - that Michael has been put into the House of Lords...

David Cameron issued the following statement to ConservativeHome:

"I am delighted that Michael Bates will be joining the House of Lords. He will be an excellent member. He has a long record of public and political service. Most recently, he has worked hard to help re-establish the Conservative Party in the North of England. He will continue with that task in the months ahead. I look forward to working with him in Parliament."

And we received this from William Hague, Chairman of Campaign North:

"This is great news for the North of England and the Conservative Party, to both of which Michael Bates has already given outstanding service.  He will be a strong voice in the House of Lords."

* Michael Bates' real title is yet to be announced!

Yorkshire will get the Tories to 45%

Earlier today the Yorkshire Post issued a fresh warning about the continuing uphill struggle that Conservatives face in the north.  The YP's report was based on research by the London School of Economics' Tony Travers.  Travers noted that the Tories remain very weak in northern counties like Yorkshire:

"If you look at the late 1970s at the end of the Callaghan government the Tories dominated Bradford, Calderdale, Kirklees. They were in control of Leeds in their own right.  But today they need the support of other parties to control Leeds and Bradford, and Westminster seats that they either already held or were marginal are now not even remote possibilities.  Look at Leeds North West – it used to be held comfortably by the Conservatives with up to 45 per cent of the vote in the 1970s . Now they're in third place, and you get a similar picture in other parts of Yorkshire and Humberside.  Sheffield Hallam was a safe Tory seat and now it's hard to see how they're going to take that back."

Travers says that metropolitan Yorkshire is a principal reason why the Tories are struggling to get close to a winning 45% rating in opinion polls.

Earlier today Michael Bates of the Conservative Party's Campaign North told ConservativeHome that the party understood the scale of the challenge and had already taken a number of steps to steadily rebuild:

• There are Shadow City Ministers in Sheffield, Leeds, Hull, Liverpool, Manchester, Tyneside, Wearside and Teesside.
• There has been a doubling of the professional staff in the North and the opening of new fully equipped campaign centres in Bradford, Salford and Newcastle.
• The Bradford Campaign Centre opened by Party Chairman, Caroline Spelman in September this year, is the most modern and best equipped political campaigning facility outside of London.

Michael Bates continued:

"Although Prof Travers was right to establish the scale of the task we made huge advances in the local elections in May of this year winning control in Blackpool, East Yorkshire and Chester.  As a result the Conservatives now run more councils in the North West and Yorkshire than Labour and the Liberal Democrats combined. That is a fantastic base from which to build.  All this activity and resource going into the North has reinvigorated our voluntary support especially amongst the young. The Conservative Future branches in Leeds, Manchester, York, Lancaster and Durham are among the top branches in the country.  Support amongst small to medium size businesses is flooding back to the Conservatives as they see how Labour has passively overseen the destruction of our manufacturing and engineering base and heaped burdens of regulation and tax on our entrpreneurs.  To this must be added the huge dissatisfaction with Labour in the North of England. There is a pervasive view that they have taken the North for granted for too long and they are failing to respond to the issues which impact most on metropolitan areas, chiefly in ideas for tackling crime and anti-social behaviour.  We are better prepared for the short-term in the North of England than at any time for a generation, but we are resourced for the long term."

Other dimensions of Campaign North were highlighted on ConservativeHome in September.

Buying votes

The above chart appears in the main leader in today's Times.  It offers some important facts-of-economic-life:

• "Decades, if not centuries, of bitter experience have shown that individual endeavour and private enterprise are far superior to state intervention when it comes to managing wealth and improving living standards."
• "Labour has led the State to a dominant role – spending has expanded as a share of GDP by 20 per cent in the past decade."
• "In the North of England, in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland [the state] accounts for more than half of all economic activity – well ahead of international norms."
• "Economic success in London and southeast England is partnered by smaller state incursions."

The need to start to reduce the growth of the state - and stem the Sovietisation of parts of Britain - explains why party members oppose George Osborne's commitment to match Labour's spending for the next three years.  They oppose the Shadow Chancellor's position by 64% to 24%.   I cannot see Mr Osborne abandoning that position but I hope as we get closer to a 2009 or 2010 election we don't see it repeated.  Recent events may have reminded him of the potency of tax-cutting Conservatism.

The graphic on the right from today's Sun (click to enlarge) may offer part of the explanation for the huge rise in spending on the north.  All but two Cabinet ministers represent non-southern constituencies.  Last week's announcement by Brown on Crossrail may mean that he realises the problem - at least at times of pre-election fever.

This huge state expansion, particularly in the north, is further proof that's it's always 'total politics' with Gordon Brown.  Every (spending) decision he makes is a calculated attempt to win votes.  As ConservativeHome has noted before - Labour has expanded state dependency during good economic times in order to move the electorate leftwards.  None of the proceeds of the good years have been saved for rainier days.

PS Both the Times leader and George Pascoe-Watson's Sun piece appeared to have been inspired by Alice Miles' column in yesterday's Times.

The Scousers are coming

I know well that the phrase "Liverpudlian Conservative" has practically been an oxymoron in recent decades so please indulge me for a moment as I try to explain how that is changing...

Like in other cities the Conservative Associations in the city amalgamated last year, coming under the impartial chairmanship of Mike Howarth. Liverpudlian Nadine Dorries MP wrote this fantastic, typically emotional article about that process, which provoked a lot of debate. Liverpool Conservatives now have a youthful home-grown Chairman in Tony Caldeira - the entrepreneur behind the Caldeira cushion empire, a full-time co-ordinator in Cllr Martyn Barber, and a very committed "Shadow Minister" in Chris Grayling MP who keeps close tabs on things day-to-day.

The association is now out of supported status and its first challenge is to put together a full-slate of local parliamentary candidates. Parachuting candidates in from out of the area like last time doesn't give the impression that the city is being taken seriously. A huge conference centre will be completed on Kings Dock early next year so we could perhaps hold a Spring Forum there in the near future.

As well as developing the party's operation, bridges are being built with members of the community who are outside of party politics. There have been some particularly successful meetings with local businessmen - the picture on the right shows Tony Caldeira and David Cameron with Everton FC's Sir Phillip Carter - and with local charitable projects.

The most underreported speech at conference was given by Dave Sharples, a Christian youth worker in Liverpool who I did some work with in my teens. It was similar to Iain Duncan-Smith's speech in that he spoke so passionately about the moral imperative to be the change in your community that a number of people cried and all gave him a standing ovation. Worth watching:

Paul Oginsky is another Liverpudlian youth worker who spoke on the main stage at conference (and a colleague of my father when he ran a youth centre in Kirkby). He's the man behind Cameron's National Citizenship service idea and you can ask him questions about the scheme today in our Interviews section.

Related link: Join the fledgling Liverpool Conservatives Facebook group

Deputy Editor

Campaign North is making progress

I've been very impressed by the progress that is being made by Campaign North - a campaign that was showcased during Conference this morning, by William Hague.

Here are some highlights of what Campaign North has achieved:

• After six months of operations, twenty extra full-time professionals have been recruited, including regional press officers, research staff, fundraising officers and campaigning professionals.  That's a doubling of staffing since the beginning of 2007.  A full-time CF organiser is about to be recruited.
• Every pound raised in the north now stays in the north.  That has encouraged a doubling of fundraising since the start of the year.
• Shadow Ministers have been appointed for Tyneside (Alan Duncan), Manchester (George Osborne), Liverpool (Chris Grayling), Hull (David Davis), Leeds/Bradford (Eric Pickles), Sheffield (Sayeeda Warsi) and Sunderland (Mark Hoburn).

During October Oliver Letwin will announce two policy groups that will report to him and Campaign North.  One will look at transport infrastructure and the other at manufacturing and engineering.  Paul Maynard, our candidate for Blackpool North, is now a full-time researcher for CN.

Although polls suggest that the 'Cameron Effect' is much weaker in the north, there are some signs of progress.  In May's elections the party did particularly well in Blackpool, Chester and South Ribble, for example.  The Conservatives now control more councils in the North West and Yorkshire than Labour or the Lib Dems.  The party also fielded more candidates in May's elections than either of the other two main parties.  The Campaign's focus in over seven to ten years, however.  It will take that long to fully build the campaigning infrastructure, improve the field of candidates and develop a full range of policies that will meet the north's challenges.  The Campaign couldn't have a better chief executive than Michael Bates (William Hague's Deputy on the Northern Board).

The Campaign now has its own website.

Northern Board attacked as "gimmick"

Former Tory candidate Jonathan Scott has written for today's Yorkshire Post about the Conservative Party's "northern challenge."  He believes that the actions taken so far are an inadequate response to the fact that "Tory MPs are so few in number in the North that they would struggle to fill a London taxi."  Although Mr Scott's characterisation is exaggerated (David Cameron's three most senior ministers represent northern seats) he does offer two important observations:

The new northern board: "It was instructive that [David Cameron] chose William Hague to head the new Northern Board. The Shadow Foreign Secretary is, without doubt, a very decent man and a hugely talented politician. But he is also a very busy man, and the task and responsibility of restoring the party's fortunes in the North should not have been entrusted to a full-time politician who also has literary and speaking ambitions... The fact that the Northern Board will meet only quarterly speaks volumes of the lack of urgency with which Central Office regards the crisis facing the party in the northern reaches. What is needed is a daily, hourly, assault on the key constituencies, re-building shattered constituency associations, identifying key local issues that connect with the voters, establishing links, bonds of trust, between the party and the local and regional media."

Northern voters want more than climate change: "The people of the North do care about climate change. On the east coast, they have grown familiar with the constant depredations of the sea, eating away at their homes and their livelihoods. For them, the prospect of rising sea levels is terrifying. Cities such as York know only too well how heavy rainfall and storms can spell personal and financial ruin in the form of floods. So the softer, climate change message is a good one, even here in the North. But it should not be the only message or the primary message. Like it or not, immigration, crime, welfare fraud, the dependency culture, and the politics of identity are much more pressing issues for prospective Tory voters."

William Hague under fire for outside interests

Simon McGee, Political Editor of the Yorkshire Post, effectively accuses William Hague of being a part-time Shadow Foreign Secretary in this morning's edition of the newspaper:

"William Hague has earned up to £400,000 from after-dinner speeches since returning to the Conservative front bench as David Cameron's top lieutenant.  Despite assurances that he would slash his personal business commitments, Mr Hague has not only kept all his non-executive directorships and advisory posts, but added another position during the 15 months since Mr Cameron appointed him Shadow Foreign Secretary and de facto deputy party leader.  His portfolio of extra jobs now stands at five.  The Yorkshire Post can also reveal that the Richmond MP took time out from the 2005 General Election campaign to act as a paid speaker at five commercial functions, netting him more than £30,000.  They included two appearances in London with just a week to go to polling day."

Former MP Michael Bates who is Mr Hague's deputy on the new northern board for the party, rejected the Yorkshire Post's criticism:

"Anyone that knows his work rate knows that his party and const-ituency come first and these he gives great service to.  He spends 95 per cent of his time working for the party. His income has fallen by two-thirds in terms of speaking engagements since he returned."

Mind the gap (the northern gap)

Peter Riddell spotlights more data from The Times' Populus survey this morning.  That data underlines the Tories' northern challenge.  Although 54% of voters in south eastern England agree that "the Conservative Party understands and speaks for people in my part of the country as much as any other part of Britain" the number falls to 37% for people in the north and just 29% in Scotland.  The numbers will underline the challenge facing William Hague as he chairs the party's new northern board.

Mr Riddell points out that the Conservatives can still deprive Labour of their parliamentary majority by winning seats outside of the north.  He highlights three crucial battlegrounds:

1. Approximately 11 seats along the M4 corridor in and around Bristol, Gloucester and Swindon;
2. Approximately 15 seats in the M25 corridor around London; and
3. An unspecified number of seats in the M1 corridor from Milton Keynes up to Warwick.

For victory, however, the Tories need to advance in the north and Peter Riddell highlights the M6 corridor in Lancashire.

In terms of addressing the Conservative Party's northern and Scottish challenge ConservativeHome recommends three changes:

1. A functionally separate Scottish party that has a similar relationship to the London CCHQ as Bavaria's CSU has to Berlin's CDU.  It is vital that Scottish voters see their party as genuinely committed to Scotland and not importing a London-based agenda.
2. Genuinely local candidates in most northern target seats.  One of the great failures  of the A-list was its focus on representation of women and ethnic minorities but not on regional background.
3. Continuation of 'the Year of the Striver agenda' so that the concerns of Morrison Voter - value for money and personal security - are as much part of the Tory mission as the concerns of Waitrose Voter - environment and social justice.