ConservativeHome's ToryDiary

'UKIP have completely wasted their big opportunity'

In terms of defeating the UKIP threat in June's European Elections a leaflet from Tory MEPs chooses to emphasise their MEPs' record of failure rather than addressing the independence argument head on.

Point 1 of a leaflet charges:

"UKIP let down their supporters. They returned 12 MEPs in 2004, but completely wasted their big opportunity. Their MEPs have been characterised by in-fighting and scandal; as a result, one third of their MEPs have left or been expelled."

Access a full PDF of the anti-UKIP leaflet.

The leaflet in the series that attacks Labour focuses on a failure to honour a promise to hold a referendum on Lisbon, Labour MEPs' support for joining the Euro, support for the Working Time Directive, support for an EU Space programme and also for a Euro Army:

"Labour MEPs have repeatedly voted in favour of steps towards a European army. For example, they voted in favour of an ‘integrated European Armed Force.’ Yet on another occasion, they voted that the EU should be a ‘nuclear-weapon-free zone.’"

Access a full PDF of the anti-Labour leaflet.

The best of the leaflets is against the Liberal Democrats.  The themes are similar to the Labour leaflet with LibDem Europe policy at least as bad as Labour's and much less known among the voters in, for example, the West Country, who still support Britain's third party in large numbers.  Key quote:

"The EU Court of Auditors has been unable to give the EU accounts a clean bill of health for 14 successive years, but Liberal Democrat MEPs have voted year after year to approve the EU accounts."

Access a full PDF of the anti-Liberal Democrat leaflet.

Tim Montgomerie

> Last Monday we published the leaflet that made the positive case for voting for Conservative MEP candidates.

Liberal Democrats are stirring up "hatred" towards Israel

Israel is a democratic oasis in a desert of totalitarianism. Iran's steady march towards becoming a nuclear power poses an existential threat to the Jewish state. But, it appears, the Liberal Democrats - always capable of the dirtiest campaigning - don't believe Israel should be helped by the west to defend itself.

Not for the first time Liberal Democrats are using anti-Israel leaflets to try and win votes in Muslim-rich wards.  Chris Philip, our PPC in Hampstead and Kilburn, has drawn ConHome's attention to another LibDem candidate that is stoking up anti-Israel feeling:

Cameron and Clegg on the road

Leader writers at The Independent got very excited this morning at the town hall-style meetings being held by Nick Clegg:

"When national politicians do not perpetually put themselves about in the modern way – announcing daily initiatives against telegenic backdrops; volunteering to debate on the BBC's Today programme; offering up some segment of their domestic lives via a webcam – they lay themselves open to criticism for not doing their job. Such is the presumed importance of taking a high media profile in this day and age.

As we report today, however, the leader of the Liberal Democrats, Nick Clegg, has spent his first 14 months in office taking a more softly-softly, more old-style political approach. Less visible on the national stage than Gordon Brown and David Cameron – which perhaps has as much to do with the preference of most media for a duelling style of politics as with any absence from the front line – he has been assiduously tending to the grassroots.

In only a little more than a year, he has held no fewer than 30 town hall meetings all over the country – an average of two a month – and he travels to them by train, second-class. The audiences consist of local people; they are not packed with party loyalists, nor are participants vetted."

All very exciting I'm sure but David Cameron has managed to hold similar town hall meetings (21 in total, see below) and have national media impact.  The Conservative leader's Cameron Direct meetings have been a big success.  I know from Robert Halfon that the tickets for the Harlow meeting were all taken up before flyers advertising the event had even been distributed.  One advert in a local newspaper was enough to attract 250 attendees.  These meetings are a real help to the party's efforts in target seats.  Meetings held outside elections - like literature - tend to be more winsome because they are viewed as less obviously vote-grabbing.  The people who come tend to be community influentials - priests, charity group leaders and so on - and they have time to influence others in the constituency if they were impressed.  Iain Dale scored the Direct meeting he attended very highly.  My favourite Direct moment was when David Cameron was asked if aliens had visited Earth.  Watch the Tory leader's response here.

Tim Montgomerie

Eric Pickles gears up to lovebomb the Liberal Democrats (again and again and again)

Eric Pickles will be getting his night's rest on a Sleeper train to Cornwall.  After an evening speaking engagement he's heading towards the South West for a tour of Conservative-Liberal marginals.  His day begins at 7.30am tomorrow with a breakfast engagement in Truro and it's a full day of meetings thereafter.  An aide to the new Party Chairman tells me that this visit communicates two of the big themes that Eric Pickles wants to characterise his tenure at CCHQ: graft (he promises to match the sacrifice of volunteers) and a focus on the LibDems.  With opinion polls pointing towards a perhaps decisive increase in the Tory lead some party strategists are recommending a significant shift of battleground resources into unseating Liberal Democrat MPs.  Eric Pickles is a big advocate of the lovebombing* tactic.   

Tim Montgomerie

* After years of unsuccessfully trying to scare people from voting LibDem (because, for example, of their strong pro-Europeanism, their social permissiveness or 'soft' approach to crime), the Tories decided that it was better to flatter them and appear to agree with them on key issues. The love-bombing strategy was partly a result of fears that negative campaigning against the LibDems risked reinforcing voters' perceptions of the Conservatives as mean-spirited rather than affecting voters' perceptions of the 'nice' LibDems.

Is Brown scheming for a coalition with the Liberal Democrats?

The latest ConHome poll of polls is still pointing to a hung parliament (I can't believe that will last as the economic news gets grimmer and grimmer) and Peter Oborne believes that Labour and certain Liberal Democrats are now positioning for a coalition.  Here are three quotes from his piece in the Daily Mail:

"[Brown] is seriously toying with the idea of bringing the Liberal Democrats into a possible coalition. Private discussions  -  all, of course, totally deniable  -  are taking place secretly."

"First, there are signs of a deal being thrashed out between Downing Street and the LibDems over the appointment of the next Commons Speaker... The [Labour] Whips' Office has already launched a campaign to get Labour MPs to back former LibDem leader Sir Menzies Campbell to become the new Speaker."

Second: "It is normal, as an announcement of the date of polling day becomes imminent, for the opposition party to be granted limited access to the machinery of the Civil Service in order to go through their plans for government.  However, this traditional arrangement has been unexpectedly altered. Gordon Brown (to the embarrassment of the Cabinet Secretary Gus O'Donnell) has gone out of his way to try to prevent the Conservatives gaining their normal access to Permanent Secretaries.  After criticism of this controversial ploy, Brown eventually was forced to grudgingly relent  -  but only on one condition. In a departure from recent precedent, he has also authorised-Nick Clegg's Liberal Democrats to be given full access to key civil servants."

Oborne goes on to mention the possibility of Vince Cable become Chancellor - he recently praised Brown's handling of the economic crisis - and Paddy Ashdown becoming Defence Secretary.

The great problem with this scheme - already floated before Christmas by Iain Martin - is that a number of Orange Book Liberal Democrats - notably Jeremy Browne and David Laws - will hate the idea of a coalition with Labour.  The Tories have long sought defectors from the parliamentary Liberal Democrats.  If Clegg allows Ashdown-Cable-Campbell to push him towards a LibLab pact (and it's far from clear that he is happy with the talk according to Oborne) he may find he loses MPs (and more councillors) to the Conservatives.  In the long run it will destroy the Liberal Democrat brand in southern England if they prop up a Labour government that the voters of, for example, Taunton, Richmond and Sutton and Cheam wanted out.

Tim Montgomerie

David Cameron, the Andrex puppy dog

When Labour compared David Cameron to a chameleon it backfired. The chameleon looked quite cute, was the verdict of Mr Cameron's daughter. The wisdom of comparing the Conservative leader to the Andrex puppy dog - cute but unrelated to the underlying product - isn't therefore obvious to us. Nick Clegg made the comparison in his without-notes speech to LibDems in Bournemouth. His long attack on the Conservatives went on to also accuse Mr Cameron of arrogance and having no real policies.

If his attacks on the Tories were unconvincing his remarks on tax and spending were interesting. Do you believe that government spends every pound wisely?, he asked. Government, he said, should spend money as wisely as if the money was borrowed from a close friend. It's true that LibDem tax plans don't add up but his speech is a sign of the transformed public mood on tax. Voters no longer believe in higher and higher spending. They want a refund.

From PoliticsHome's transcript of the speech, Clegg's attack on the Conservatives in full:

"But we can be certain that Labour cannot help us.

And we can be certain that the Conservatives won’t bother.

Cameron’s only aim was to make the Conservatives inoffensive.

Problem is, once you strip out the Offensive parts of the Conservative party, there isn’t much left.

Cameron’s hope is to become the Andrex puppy of British politics.

A cuddly symbol, perhaps.

But fundamentally irrelevant to the product he’s promoting.

One LibDem idea that we should adopt

The Liberal Democrats are in trouble.  Yesterday, Guido reported a survey that suggested two-thirds of its English MPs are in danger from 'the Cameron effect'.  A letter in Saturday's Guardian from ex-LibDems explained why they had joined the Conservatives.

Gordon Brown isn't alone is facing leadership speculation.  Nick Clegg is hardly doing any better in the polls than Ming Campbell and the Independent on Sunday found Chris Huhne reasserting himself yesterday.

Most of the LibDem ideas on tax'n'spend aren't worth copying - not least the dangerous attempts to raise green taxes and taxes on the allegedly wealthy.  But anyone on the Right should welcome some of the changes that Clegg is making to his party.  He refused yesterday to rule out sending his children to private schools and abandoned his party's "rapid" commitment to join the euro.

There was also one idea that Vince Cable has proposed that we should eagerly pinch.  The TaxPayers' Alliance has regularly exposed the growth of telephone number salaries in local and central government.  Mr Cable has proposed that all super-salary workers in the public sector beaucracy and quangocracy - on c£100,000 - will have to reapply for their jobs.  Many of these will only be reappointed on reduced salaries.  This policy could be the flagship policy of a wider commitment to public sector pay restraint.

The collapse of Lehmans means that this a bleak day for the world economy.  Last week the Tories signalled the end of Labour's spending splurge.  George Osborne needs to say a lot more about evolving Conservative economic policy in his address in Birmingham.

90% of drop in Labour support has gone to the Conservatives

Sorry to have missed this earlier but there's an ICM poll in the Sunday Express.  ICM normally gives the LibDems their highest rating and this 16% rating will cause heartache at their Cowley Street HQ.  At just 16.6% in ConHome's poll of polls, Mr Clegg has added just 0.4% to the LibDem rating since Ming was ousted.  Approximately 90% of the drop in Labour support has gone to the Conservatives.

Conservatives to the right, LibDems to the left, SNP to the north

It's into the valley of political death for Gordon Brown.  He now faces a triple squeeze.  It may not be as credible as the threat from the Tories in England and Wales and from the SNP in Scotland but Nick Clegg has used his summer message to signal a shift of resources to fifty Lab-Lib marginals, mainly in northern England.  Hat tip to Jonathan Isaby for spotting the video.  Jonathan analyses Nick Clegg's latest tactical u-turn here.

Forget tax cuts, says Fox

This morning's headline news concerns well-sourced speculation that Labour is likely to rewrite its fiscal rules.  The increasingly sick public finances are forcing Labour to consider much greater borrowing.  The Tory reaction to all of this is to don the hair shirts.  On Tuesday David Cameron warned that he might have to increase taxes.  The leading member of the Right within the shadow cabinet, Liam Fox, is giving Associations the same message.  This is what Dr Fox told Ealing and Acton Tories earlier this week:

"If your hanging your boots on thinking we can offer tax cuts if we win, then you can forget it... The fact is, the finances will be a lot worse than people think, just as it was in 1979, they're always worse than they [Labour] say; back then it was four years before anything could be done, and this, again, is the situation that we will need to deal with when we win."

Dr Fox confirmed those words to ConservativeHome yesterday.  He said that he knew of a number of "unpaid bills" in his own area of responsibility, defence, and that national security must come before tax cuts.  He gave a similar message to the FT last month.

But just when you thought that tax cuts weren't on the agenda, along comes Nick Clegg with his promise to cut the overall burden of taxation.  A leader in The Times questions the sketchiness of the LibDem leader's plans but welcomes his attempt to shift the political debate.  Telegraph commentators Iain Dale and Janet Daley both welcome Mr Clegg's intervention:

• Iain Dale in today's Telegraph: "He hasn't just pledged a reduction in taxes; he has promised a cut in public spending, too. Admittedly, it is only £20 billion, a mere three per cent of total government spending, but it's a start. And it's a damn sight more than any other politician has had the guts to do."
• Janet Daley yesterday on The Telegraph blog: "Mr Clegg has spoken the words which no Tory frontbencher will dare to utter: the poor are paying too much tax (far more in proportion to their income than the rich), and the Government is spending too much money."

We're not so ready to applaud Mr Clegg.  As we argued on Wednesday, Nick Clegg's social policies mean that he'll do little to reduce the long-term demands on the state.  He doesn't have credibility.  Conservatives MUST realise, however, that the public mood has shifted on tax.  Just as every household is tightening its belts the Conservatives must put an end to the public spending supertanker and say that we will not continue to match Labour's spending plans.  As soon as we break free from Labour's spending plans we force the much-needed war on waste and begin to create space to reduce borrowing and introduce some economy-boosting tax relief.  We set out our other four tax'n'spending recommendations last month.

The big idea is social reform

On his blog yesterday Nick Robinson wondered if this website would cheer a forthcoming promise by Nick Clegg to cut the overall burden of taxation.  It's true that we're supply-siders on tax.  We side with the TaxPayers' Alliance in our fear that it would be disastrous for UK plc if we raise taxes during a slowdown.  But there's one big reason why we can't take Mr Clegg seriously on the size of the state: Mr Clegg isn't serious about society.

Last week, in Glasgow, David Cameron gave his landmark 'right and wrong' speech.  Last evening, in a thoughtful, fascinating speech - to the Centre for Policy Studies - George Osborne linked social failure with the large (welfare) state and economic uncompetitiveness.  Overnight Mr Cameron congratulated Barack Obama on the US presidential candidate's tough message to black males: A man raises a child, he doesn't just create one.  Cameron and Osborne are combining two great insights:

• the economic potency of social factors, and
• an understanding that politicians can play a role in 'bully-pulpiting' and nudging change as well as legislating for change.

We'd like to suggest we got there a few years ago but Nick Clegg just doesn't get this stuff at all.  Reacting to David Cameron's Glasgow speech last week, Mr Clegg played juvenile politics, accusing Mr Cameron of having "contempt for the poor and the forgotten".  His party's indifference to the institution of marriage, opposition to education reforms and weakness on crime mean he has no route map to deliver the kind of society that can underpin a smaller state.

The conservative coalition has three main components: social, economic and 'national purpose' conservatives.  On social policy the next Conservative government promises to be profoundly interesting.  Economic policy is probably too cautious but is getting more promising.  It is in the area of 'national purpose' - our relationship with Europe, national security and wider foreign policy - where thinking has been most limited but the party has two years to develop this area.

Bad news for Liberal Democrats in latest ComRes survey

Not only have the Liberal Democrats fallen back in the latest ComRes survey for The Independent but Nick Clegg has a lower approval rating than Ming Campbell when he was ousted as the party leader six months ago.

ComRes finds that "The Tories are ahead among every age group and social class. Labour, which has seen its traditional working-class supporters desert it following the abolition of the 10p rate of income tax, trails the Tories by 38 per cent to 35 per cent among the lowest DE social group and by 43 per cent to 30 per cent among C2 skilled manual workers.  Mr Cameron's party is ahead of Labour in every region of Britain except Scotland and enjoys a 10-point lead in Labour's former stronghold in the north of England."

> Over at Seats and candidates, Bromley councillor Neil Reddin explains why the LibDems can't take much comfort from the Bromley and Chislehurst by-election in their battling to do well in Henley.

Clegg ready to back minority Tory government from day one

"In consultations with senior members of the party, he said he was prepared to take the necessary steps that would enable the Tories to form a minority administration.

Mr Clegg ruled out taking a Cabinet seat in a Conservative government in return for his support and instead would provide Mr Cameron with "supply and confidence" – meaning he would promise to back a Conservative Budget and would side with the Tories in any votes of confidence.

As a result, Mr Cameron would be free to accept the post of Prime Minister from the Queen on the day after the next general election, even if he failed to win an outright majority."

Read more in The Telegraph.

LibDems are to the left of Labour

The Economist has this week published an intriguing poll that points to large political differences between British and American citizens.  Britain, it says, is much more left-wing than America - particularly on questions of values, religion and military action.  The graph opposite summarises the differences and there is much more info on this page.

The survey needs to be heavily qualified.  Is atheism or support for abortion really left-wing?  Is military intervention overseas in order to oust a dictatorship really right-wing?

Putting those major questions aside for one moment the survey of British voters reveals that the average LibDem is more likely to take left-wing views than the average Labour supporter.  On national interest (the LibDems are most likely to support institutions that deny national independence), military intervention (LDs are likely to be most pacifist), religion (LDs most hostile), values (LDs most permissive), and climate change (LDs most enthusiastic about radical green action) we see the same pattern.  Only on general questions of ideology are LibDems narrowly to the right of Labour but are still much closer to Labour supporters than Conservatives.

A poll for The Sunday Times two weeks ago found that LibDems voters were least supportive of tough work requirements on those on benefit plus that 13% of LibDem voters wanted higher taxes and only 8% of Labour voters (although there were more LibDem voters also wanting tax relief, 58% over 43%).

This all represents something of a problem for Nick Clegg.  A recent polling presentation to the shadow cabinet showed that David Cameron's success in recruiting once LibDem voters into the Tory camp had left behind a much more left-leaning LibDem party.  Mr Clegg's instincts are those of an Orange Book reformer but can he free himself from his party's biases?

Clegg faces surrender on referendum or defining rebellion

At about 7pm tonight the LibDem leader will be holding a meeting with his parliamentary party.  Seventeen of his MPs - listed below - have challenged his line that there should be no referendum on the EU Treaty.

The equivalent would be a rebellion of fifty for David Cameron.

If Clegg insists on voting against a referendum he will risk a major rebellion tomorrow and his authority as leader may never recover.

His escape option might be to support an amendment by Ian Davidson that would give the British people two votes - one on the Lisbon Treaty and another undefined vote, in the gift on ministers.  That second vote could be Nick Clegg's in-out vote.

William Hague has issued a statement, piling pressure on Mr Clegg and those rebels (many of them in fear of Eurosceptic campaigns by their Tory opponents):

“Wednesday is decision time for the Lib Dems. They can honour their election promise of a referendum on this Treaty or they do Gordon Brown’s dirty work for him and break their word. They can be sure of this: voters will judge each MP on how he or she behaves today. Because what it the point of voting for an MP or party that makes promises at election time only later to do the exact opposite?”

Nick Clegg's first big test

Last week we noted the resistance of Frank Field and Kate Hoey to the bullying of Labour whips on the EU Treaty.

We have been a bit slow in covering this story but the Liberal Democrat leader is facing his first big test - over the same issue.

One LibDem frontbencher, David Heath MP, Justice spokesman, has made it clear that he will vote for a referendum on the EU Treaty.  This is in clear contravention of Mr Clegg's position.  Mr Clegg has said that "we would vote against a referendum on the treaty."  The Telegraph has reported that as many as fifteen other LibDem MPs are unhappy at their leader's position.

Yesterday William Hague intervened:

"At the last election the Liberal Democrats were as committed as every other party to a referendum on the EU Constitution. The EU Treaty before parliament is the Constitution under another name. It is time the Lib Dem leadership joined David Heath in refusing to break their election promises, otherwise it will be clear that the voters can never trust the Liberal Democrats on this issue."

So what does Nick Clegg do?  Discipline Mr Heath and risk others following him off the frontbench?  Or does he allow Mr Heath to keep his job?  If he chooses the latter option - as seems likely - his authority will be badly undermined and other LibDem MPs will be more willing to openly attack Mr Clegg's Orange book tendencies.  It's delicious to watch another party suffering European difficulties.

One month of Nick Clegg

At last week's two hour special meeting of the shadow cabinet Michael Ashcroft's polling team gave a presentation on the state of public opinion.  One of the conclusions was that the last two years had seen many Tory-inclined LibDem voters migrate to the blue corner.  They had left behind a smaller party that was much more left-wing than it had been for a decade or so.

It's too early to make big conclusions about Nick Clegg's short period as leader - he was elected one month ago - but here are a few quick thoughts:

Polling: His election did not produce an opinion poll bounce.  The LibDems are 0.2% higher in the latest ConservativeHome poll of polls than where they were just before Clegg was elected on the narrowest of margins.  His most memorable intervention was his 'I don't believe in God' remark.

Team Clegg: His top team is a strong one.  Not as strong as ours (!) but stronger than Brown's.  Vince Cable at the Treasury continues to win considerable publicity on Northern Rock - more than George Osborne.  Home affairs spokesman Chris Huhne was assured on BBC1's Question Time last night (on which Louise Bagshawe did very well).  And Ed Davey will be a safe pair of hands at Foreign affairs.

PMQs: He's done okay at PMQs - choosing safe topics - neither making a big impression but neither flopping in the ways that so damaged Ming.

Policy direction: Last week's speech on the public services (watch highlights here)  - Clegg's first big speech as leader - was well received by some conservative commentators, including Matthew d'Ancona.  MdA described the speech as "impressive" and "robust"; "this was Clegg back to his formidable best".  Clegg has also promised to look at Britain's Constitution and attacked Cameron's support for marriage.

Hurdles: The big tests for Clegg will come in May.  The LibDem's Mayoral candidate, Brian Paddick, is scoring only 7% against Boris and Livingstone.  Clegg will need to have compensatory wins elsewhere in local elections (or a good parliamentary by-election campaign (there's none scheduled)) if the Huhnistas aren't to start dusting off their 'Calamity Clegg' dossier.

The political spectrum: But Danny Finkelstein lifts us above the immediate party political considerations and reflects on, what he hopes, might be the longer-term impact of the new LibDem leader:

"My hope for Clegg is that he will help tip politics in Britain to the centre right. With both Liberals and Conservatives standing for smaller central government and much more choice in public services the debate will, hopefully begin to change.  The question marks are over Clegg's ability to resist pressure from Liberal activists and over whether his choice of big issue to make his mark will be a centre right issue or a more traditional centre right one."

New LibDem team

What do you think of Nick Clegg's new Shadow Cabinet team?

Do any of them have an interesting background in their new briefs?

Leader: Nick Clegg
Deputy Leader: Vincent Cable
Leader's chief of staff: Danny Alexander
Leader's PPS: Mark Hunter

Chief Whip: Paul Burstow
Chair of Campaigns and Communications: Ed Davey
Parliamentary campaigns chairman: Willie Rennie

Treasury: Vincent Cable
Treasury: Jeremy Browne
Business and enterprise: Sarah Teather

Home affairs: Chris Huhne
Justice: David Heath
Shadow Attorney General: Lord Thomas
Shadow Solicitor General: David Howarth

Foreign affairs: Ed Davey
Defence: Nick Harvey
International Development: Michael Moore 

Live blog of LibDem leadership result

9.20pm: Nick Clegg records a victory message for YouTube

6.15pm: Deborah Thomas, our candidate up against Vince Cable, has blogged her own reaction to Clegg's win.

5.45pm: Clegg's Sat-Nav concept.

4.25pm: James Forsyth suggests that Huhne could become the champion of LibDem grassroots sentiments on issues like PR... Read him here.

3.40pm: ToryRadio has an audio of Calamity's speech.

3.25pm: Well done to the well-prepared LibDem website team...

3.20pm: Both Sky and News 24 have moved on.  Turned on Radio Five and they've moved on, too.  It'll be interesting to see how much coverage this gets on tonight's bulletins.  There doesn't seem to be much excitement and as James Forsyth wrote earlier: "The timing of the leadership race, though, has done whoever wins no favours. Any momentum they build up over the next few days will be halted by the holidays."

3.15pm: John Rentoul's review of Clegg's speech: "Clegg was completely vacuous. His election was a fresh start, he said. Which new leader does not think that - they have to prove it. He was elected to change Britain, apparently. And he's a liberal. Blimey."

3.05pm: Caroline Spelman congratulates Nick Clegg:

“We congratulate Nick Clegg on becoming the latest leader of the Liberal Democrats. We hope that the Liberal Democrats under Mr Clegg will join us in putting pressure on the Government to devolve power to local authorities, communities and individuals; in our opposition to ID cards; and in our commitment to social justice and environmental progress. We hope that together we can create a new progressive alliance to decentralise British politics.”

That's known as love-bombing!  Fascinating.  Will Cameron call Clegg and congratulate him when he lands in China?

3pm: Charles Kennedy tells News 24 that it was best new leader's speech he has ever heard.  Clegg said that liberalism was spirit of the age and that he wanted to create a Liberal Britain. 

2.55pm: 51,325 LibDems voted in the election that saw Ming win.  The number of participants shrunk by nearly 20% this time.

2.47pm: Generous speech from Huhne.  All that Calamity Clegg stuff is forgotten it seems.  Poor Ming looks so sad.

2.45pm: 198,844 people voted in the Tory leadership race... Just 41,465 voted in the LibDem contest.  4.8 times as many Tories.

2.39pm: Clegg wins by 20,988 to 20,477.

2.35pm: Vince Cable about to declare result... Says that he's not about to undertake a coup!  Some LibDems will wish he that he would.  Says that LibDems need to appreciate the importance of programmes like Strictly Come Dancing!  Get on with it, Vince!!

2.33pm: Sky saying that Clegg's winning margin is only 500 votes.

2.20pm: News24 is predicting a very narrow Clegg victory.  Clegg was expected to win decisively... if it is "very narrow" it will be a result of his lacklustre campaign.

2.15pm: Announcement of ballot delayed until about 2.45pm.  Political Betting's pundits are collectively predicting a Clegg victory with 53.7%.  Vince Cable's acting leadership ends on another high.  He's been all over the media today discussing the latest development's in the stealthy nationalisation of Northern Rock.  We put his 'Bean performance' at PMQs on PlayPolitical earlier.

Seven approaches to beating the Liberal Democrats

Yesterday ConservativeHome argued that the Liberal Democrats are David Cameron's biggest headache.  Tomorrow Britain's third party announces that Nick Clegg will be their next leader.  Surely it will be him?  On today's Platform Iain Duncan Smith argues that we are most likely to beat the LibDems by being a decent party ourselves.

In the most recent ConservativeHome readers' survey we asked for your ideas on we should tackle the Liberal Democrats.  We've selected some of your verbatim responses and publish them below under seven broad headings...

DON’T GIVE THEM PUBLICITY (AND NEGATIVE CAMPAIGNING DOESN’T WORK)

• “By ignoring them”
• “Don't give them the oxygen of publicity.”
• “Be more ssertive in publicising Conservative policies. Negative campaigning, even when true, turns the electorate off. It also gives them publicity & inprints their names in the electorate's mind.”
• “They are doing quite enough to tackle themselves- just ignore them.”
• “Let them continue to hang themselves.”
• “Concentrate on being Conservatives; the Liberal Democrats will fade away.”
• “Exhibit lofty disregard.”

HIGHLIGHT THEIR UNPOPULAR AND INCONSISTENT POLICIES

• “You should explain that their plans to axe council tax for a local income tax will make the average family worse off.”
• “By highlighting their constant demand for more taxes.”
• “LibDems want us to be a province of Europe! We should expose this in PR output.”
• “By highlighting the inconsistencies in their stated policies.”
• “Mass publicity of their daftest ideas.”
• “The Conservative Party takes a far too relaxed attitude to the LibDems. Every opportunity must be taken to examine, expose & ridicule their far-left, spendthrift policies. The LibDems are are a far greater danger than they are given credit for & must be countered & neutralised at every opportunity.”
• “High visibility attacks on their policy stances and the variations between constituencies.”
• “Expose them as more left than Labour. It is a myth that they are in the centre and a place for Tories to protest too in mid term. They are very radical , silly and dangerous and more irresponsible than Labour , more like left Labour. We must expose them on Defence , as unilateralists and as a high tax and spend party.”

Should Sajjad Karim be fast-tracked to the top of the North West list?

This was the message that Timothy Kirkhope, Leader of our MEPs, emailed to all of his colleagues earlier today concerning the defection of Sajjad Karim:

"I am delighted to inform you all that SAJJAD KARIM, until now one of the Lib/Dem MEPs for the North West of England, has decided to join the Conservative Party and has accepted my offer to join our Delegation. The Chief Whip, with my authority, has informed him that he is in receipt of the Conservative Whip as of today.

This decision by Sajjad is a very important and courageous one and underlines the fact that under David Cameron's leadership we are now, as a Party, with our "Broad Church" much more attractive to former Lib/Dem members.  David Cameron himself has given his full approval and support to this decision by Sajjad.

The discussions themselves which I have carried on with Sajjad have, by necessity, been confidential and obviously sensitive but I am certain that the outcome will be of great mutual benefit to both him and us.

I will notify you in a separate message of an early opportunity for you all to meet with our new Conservative member although I appreciate some of you already know him - but obviously not in the new role which he is taking on.

This is a timely event falling as it does during the increasingly fractious Lib/Dem leadership election.  Perhaps others may decide to leave that Party and join us.  I do hope so."

Do the words (emboldened) in paragraph three mean what I think they mean?  Has he been promised a top spot on the North West list - pour encourager les autres - thus denying a long-standing Conservative the chance to become an MEP?  While I welcome any defection from the LibDems I'd like to be persuaded that his views are consistent with what we'd want from a Conservative representative.  There has to be some suspicion that they are not (see here and here).

Ming who?

Although I noted that Campbell's resignation meant not many lobby journalists trekked up to Finsbury to hear Cameron speak about poverty this morning, the general level of interest in his surprise decision has been pitifully low.

It's often not been the main story on the news bulletins and this morning's papers weren't exactly packed full of analysis and features. This surely reflects a lack of interest in the Liberal Democrats as much as Campbell's low personal profile.

Campbell gave his first verbal statements to the broadcast journalists this afternoon. Speaking to Nick Robinson he said that:

• He gave sixty interviews at conference and has made policy speeches on things like council tax, but the media were only interested in the state of his leadership and some were obsessed with looking for anti-Lib Dem stories.
• Several consecutive reports in the press about his age and leadership led him to the conclusion that it would be continually difficult to stay on.
• Now that Brown has called off the election he feels able to do so, and can give a new leader enough time to bed in.
• The Party isn't unleadable, it didn't get rid of him although some colleagues could have been more helpful in public.
• He will stay in Parliament and stand at the next election.
• He will finish writing his memoirs and didn't rule out taking up a role in Brown's government if offered

It's amazing that this was the first time he's spoken about it, if it really was all jump and no push you would have thought he'd have taken more than an afternoon to prepare himself for the announcement.

Deputy Editor

Ten instant reactions to Ming's resignation

This was pretty much inevitable.  The combination of terrible opinion poll ratings and Brown's decision to delay an election until at least 2009 gave the LibDems the opportunity to oust a leader who had failed to connect with the public.

It's odd that Ming hasn't appeared in public.  Perhaps he hasn't resigned but the men in sandals have him tied up in the basement of Cowley Street!  As Ben Brogan says: "Show us the body"!

The FT blog is describing Ming as a "broken man".  Don't feel too sorry for him, however.  He was ruthless in ousting Charles Kennedy.  If he hadn't jumped he would have been pushed.  Hardly any MPs had come to his public defence in recent days.

Ming was a big Tory asset.  Anyone who wanted the best for David Cameron would have preferred Ming to stay.  The Tories were doing very well in southern marginals.  Guido's Save Ming campaign came too late.

The Kennedy factor. Iain Dale blogs that Charles Kennedy is the only man who can lift the LibDems up to 20%.  I don't agree with that but a Kennedy return would make the contest very interesting.

Clegg is the man.  In my opinion - the LibDems should choose Nick Clegg if they have any sense.  I've worried about him for some time.  Guess who has written this tonight: "He’s articulate, personable, simpatico and modest. He speaks five languages fluently. He’s a proper parliamentarian, equally at ease in committees and on the floor of the house. He’s temperate in his opinions, and courteous to those – like me – who find those opinions risible."?  Answer: Dan Hannan.  Dan knew Clegg when he was an MEP.  He also knew the other leading contender, Huhne.  He writes about both here.

How should Tories react?  We should watch and wait mainly but Clegg, if he was to win and he's the bookies' favourite, will probably save a lot of southern LibDem seats.  That's no reason for Tory panic but it underlines the importance of the Conservatives making progress in the north and Midlands - against Labour.

The manner of the leadership contest will be important.  Many LibDems might object to Clegg's Orange Book tendencies.  It could get ugly.  After dumping two leaders in two years the Libs are certainly looking less nice than they like to pretend.  The LibDem ruling body has already announced the timetable.  The new leader will be in place by 17th December.

This is a big opportunity for the LibDem blogs.  LabourHome failed to take off during the Blair-Brown succession and the Deputy Leadership contest.  Watch LibDemVoice, in particular, and see if it can become the place for LibDem conversation.  It has lacked bite up until now - avoiding a lot of the difficult debates.

Oaten for leader!#*?  Silliest question of the evening: BBC News 24 to Mark Oaten - "Can you rule yourself out?"  Now Oaten as leader would be a dream scenario.

MING CAMPBELL TO RESIGN

Imminently. It seems to have taken the media and the Lib Dems by surprise.

6.35pm: Vince Cable (Deputy, and now Acting, Leader) and Simon Hughes (President of the Party) have just given a statement outside Cowley Street, confirming that Ming has decided to resign with immediate effect. Ming won't be making a statement tonight. Hughes said:

"Throughout all his political life Ming has taken all his decisions, and this decision is one of them, in the interests of our party and liberal democracy in Britain."

They didn't take any questions (ignoring "did you wield the dagger, did you wield the dagger?!").

6.45pm: He apparently told Party officials that he felt he wasn't able to turn their fortunes around and as there won't be an election for some months he thought it was time to give way. Shirley Williams says it's time for a new generation.

6.50pm: Both Lembit Opik and Lord Steel have made accusations about ageism.

6.55pm: Gordon Brown has released a statement saying Ming is "A man of great stature and integrity who has served his party and country with distinction".

Will the 11% LibDems take this opportunity to oust Ming?

Channel 4 has just revealed that a YouGov poll for the Sunday Times puts the Conservatives 3% ahead of Labour.  The real movement is in the collapse of the LibDems, however.  Will Messrs Huhne and Clegg have the courage to act?

Added on Sunday morning: