ConservativeHome's ToryDiary

Will Brown choose Harman or Dacre in the great marriage debate?

The Tory-Mail relationship hasn't been great of late so there'll have been a few smiles within Team Cameron at this morning's Daily Mail front page splash...

The Mail's enthusiasm for Iain Duncan Smith's likely recommendation that action is taken to reduce the disincentives to marry within the tax and benefits system will be a test for Gordon Brown.  Our new Prime Minister has courted The Sun and Mail ever since he set his eyes on Number Ten.  He will be concerned that he may lose Paul Dacre if he goes too hard against the Tory marriage policy although Harriet Harman et al will be pressing him very hard to do so.

This is how today's Mail leader column concludes:

"Duncan Smith's report is a welcome challenge to political correctness. Though some of his proposals may prove contentious - for example, swingeing taxes on alcohol to fund treatments for drug addicts - his case for strengthening family structures is compelling.  As David Cameron says, mending Britain's 'broken society' is the biggest issue of our times. It will be instructive to see how other parties respond."

Ms Harman's political correctness means she despises any hint that one form of family structure is usually better for children than any other.  That political correctness forces her and her ideological Labour colleagues to ignore the evidence that poverty is almost certainly unbeatable if public policy does not support two parents and marriage.

Labour will attack Cameron as 'weak'

Labour have tried a number of anti-Cameron tactics.  There have been the false start charges of opportunism, the chameleon attack, the estate agent misfire and the comparison with President Bush.  None have worked but they may finally have decided upon a strategy.  It was on show earlier this evening when Labour's James Purnell and our Grant Shapps were interviewed by Sky News on College Green.  Mr Purnell consistently attacked Cameron as weak and (sorry Grant) he won the encounter.

Labour advisers know that Cameron is overwhelmingly seen as more charismatic.  They know that'll be difficult to counter.  They are building up Brown's biggest asset - that voters see him as strong.  The Conservatives need to think carefully about this.  The wrong attacks - 'Brown is a control freak' - may only reinforce Brown's heavyweight reputation.  Remember how Spitting Image used to attack Margaret Thatcher as a tyrant?  Downing Street loved those attacks (they reinforced Mrs T's Falklands stature etc).  When she was painted as mad ('We are a grandmother') the satirists' bite started to draw blood.  Brown needs to be attacked on his record and his closeness to Blair's record.  David Cameron and George Osborne must certainly avoid direct attacks themselves.  They should only ever use surrogate assassins.

Labour leadership nominations open

Nominations for the Deputy Leader open this afternoon and close on Thursday lunchtime. Peter Hain, Harriet Harman and Hazel Blears have already published at least the required 45 nominations, but Alan Johnson seems to be biding his time - he may have almost double that number. Jon Cruddas and Hilary Benn are still holding out for enough nominations.

Nominations also opened for the leadership of the party today but the only interesting aspect to that is who Meacher and McDonnell decide should challenge Brown. The procedure for both contests starts with the lists of backers being posted on Labour's website, then the candidates attend ten hustings before the vote begins between MPs/MEPs, party members and affiliated unions. The victors will be announced in Manchester on Sunday 24th June (Blair stands down on the Wednesday).

Blears (pictured at her launch outside Parliament) summed up well the lack of policy substance so far:

"We have a real sense among us that this campaign has to be about talking about the issues the public are really concerned about."

An important question is whether the deputy race will divide the party or invigorate it. Which Deputy Leader would you vote for?

Deputy Editor

Did the Sedgefield candidate really get no votes?

One of the most quoted anecdotes on election night and in the press the next day was that the Conservative candidate for Tony Blair's own ward in Sedgefield didn't get any votes at all. Shirley Bowes doesn't live in the ward and hadn't even told her son she was standing but she would have at least needed ten nominations from local voters to be an eligible candidate.

This may have been the first time that someone has had no votes so it was a great little story for Blair in his last election as leader... but was it true?

Several people have now come forward claiming to have voted for her, and the Borough Council can't use the Scottish defence of the votes being voided by machines!

Deputy Editor

Reid jumps before being pushed

John Reid told The Politics Show this morning that he would resign from the Home Office when Blair leaves in June, and sit on the backbenches under Gordon Brown's premiership. The Laughing Cavaliers was quick on the uptake with this story.

Alan Johnson had earlier been on Sunday AM welcoming Charles Clarke's decision to not challenge Brown, and John Hutton had given his backing to Brown on GMTV.

Despite unsuccessfully agitating for a serous contender to stand against Brown, Reid claimed that Brown told him there was still a place for him in "his government", but that he "made it plain to him" that he wanted to be a supportive backbencher instead:

"Now I've done nine jobs in 10 years and I think from my point of view I think it's a good thing to be able to go out to listen, to learn, to discuss, to get back to the grass roots. But also from the point of view of an incoming prime minister. I think the new prime minister should have the maximum flexibility. He needs space."

Reid also said that Brown needed more fresh faces in his Cabinet (Roy Hattersley had urged the "appointment of a young, vigorous and obviously able cabinet" in the Observer). So there's more room for a young gun now, but also for another Scot - increasing the likelihood of Alastair Darling bagging Brown's current job. 

Deputy Editor

Blair and Brown

A poll in the Independent today, exactly 10 years since the 1997 election, says that almost two-thirds of Scots, 63%, think Tony Blair has been a good PM. Speaking to party loyalists in Edinburgh this afternoon, Blair gave the strongest indication yet of his imminent departure and endorsement of Mr Brown:

"Within the next few weeks I won't be Prime Minister of this country. In all probability, a Scot will become Prime Minister of the United Kingdom... someone who has built one of the strongest economies in the world and who I've always said will make a great Prime Minister."

He also said on GMTV today that he will give a definitive statement on his position next week. Meanwhile a slightly cringing video of Blair and Brown was posted on to YouTube today. It follows a dozen or so mere members of the public as they have the immense honour of meeting their superiors:

Deputy Editor

Will Blair resign before Thursday's elections?

Is Tony Blair planning a final gift to the Labour Party by resigning before next Thursday's local elections?  The Express and Telegraph speculate that he might be planning to take advantage of the saturation coverage that would greet such an announcement.  Although there would be a reminder of Labour's failures - including of the handling of the Iraq war - there would also be focus on his achievements, including the Northern Ireland peace process.

Margaret Thatcher was deeply unpopular in 1990 but her resignation and the associated coverage of her premiership produced a bounce in her standing.  Labour may be hoping a resignation next Tuesday - the tenth anniversary of Blair's election - might do the same for their party's candidates for Thursday's elections.  Mr Blair might even announce that he'll be supporting Gordon Brown and give Labour a much needed boost in its ratings for unity.

Republicans in Washington regret that George Bush only sacked Donald Rumsfeld after last November's Congressional elections.  Many believe that the Senate might still be in GOP hands today if Bush had forced Rumself out a few weeks before polling and had demonstrated a willingness to listen to American voters' concerns.

Iain Dale speculated about this happening last week and even drafted a resignation speech for Blair.

Brazen Labour plan crime blitz on David 'softie' Cameron

The Government that managed to 'lose' more 1,000 foreign prisoners is about to suggest that David Cameron is 'soft on crime'.  Today's Guardian suggests that Home Secretary John Reid will charge the Tories with being 'soft on crime' because of:

• questioning of extradition laws;
• opposition to identity cards;
• refusing to support 90-day detention and control orders; and
• Tory suspicion of ASBOs.

The Guardian suggests that the Queen's Speech will have a strong law'n'order flavour in a bid to put the Tories on the back foot.  The Sun was critical of the Conservative approach yesterday and The Mirror has already been doing Labour's bidding...

Some Tories will have sympathy for the Labour attack.  The reason why 36% of party members most fear John Reid as Labour leader is because of his tough guy language.  They would like similar toughness from David Cameron and worry about the 'hug-a-hoodie' headlines.

ConservativeHome believes that it will be difficult for Labour to present the Tories as 'softies' for five main reasons:

1. Labour's own very mixed record;
2. David Davis' credentials as a tough man;
3. Nick Herbert's police reform agenda;
4. David Cameron's own commitment to the vital 'prison works' policy; and
5. His willingness to address the causes of crime.

Miliband is latest Labourite to misfire at Cameron

Ever since David Cameron arrived on the political scene the Labour Party has struggled to agree on a way of opposing him...

• The Brownites and Blairites differed from the beginning - one camp thinking that he should be portrayed as the smiling frontman for an extreme agenda and the other thinking he should be portrayed as a lightweight;
• John Prescott attacked Cameron for 'opportunism and triviality';
• Then there was the chameleon attack;
• That didn't work so Labour insulted Britain's 134,000 estate agents by saying that the Tory leader was like as "slippery" as all of them...

In this week's Spectator, David Miliband has had another go.  Britain's most boring political blogger has attempted to offer an intellectual critique of Cameronism.   I've read the article three times and still don't understand it.  His only consistently transparent trick is to misrepresent conservatism and then to attack it.  If this is the best Labour can do then it's very unimpressive.

Labour isn't fit for its purpose

Sir Jeremy Beecham, Chair of Labour's NEC, admitted quietly on Friday that donations to Labour had "disappeared" since the cash for peerages scandal was uncovered. He said he was considering requesting the Phillips inquiry to ask for more government money to cover Tony Blair's security at all Party events.

The Telegraph's front page features a starker story today:

• Labour may not pay September's wage bill for its 230 employees
• Labour MPs will be asked to cough up £1000 out of their salary
• Unions such as Unison were being leaned onto provide more money
• The Party's accounts are described as "woefully insolvent" by a senior accountant
• Lord Levy's fund-raising department is being disbanded, making several of its key employees redundant
• Voluntary redundancies are being sought amongst staff at its northern office in Newcastle

Labour deny the first three points, but it would be politically significant if Labour really is courting the Trade Unions for more money. Like government grants, their funding would not come without strings so we would expect more of a "true Labour" manifesto at the next election rather than a New Labour one.

Considering that the number of Labour Party members has more than halved whilst they have been in power, and the number of its Councillors dramatically reduced at local elections, its ability to put up a decent fight at the next election has got to be seriously questioned.

Conservative Associations were recently urged to raise annual membership subscriptions to at least £25 by January, although this would just bring them closer to the current membership rates of the other parties. Pointing out that the Conservative and LibDem accounts were hardly ship-shape, the Telegraph's leader warned of renewed calls for full state-funding of political parties:

"This is an idea that must be shouted down at once: rather than imposing an ethic of good housekeeping on the parties, it would merely encourage them to waste more of our money instead of their own. A better and far more popular approach would be for the leaders to agree that the whole edifice of British party politics must be scaled down for the general good."

Political parties do of course have a vested interest in funding themselves the easy way, but Conservatives should resist this. It would not only be staying true to our principles, but - assuming we can keep the faith of our own activists - it would stop a dying Labour Party being bailed out by the taxpayers.

Deputy Editor

The rise of Reid?

Whilst the papers display pictures of the Prime Minister's chintzy swimming shorts and three-yacht coterie, both the Deputy-PM and the Wannabe-PM are almost invisible to the public at a time of terror threats and international crisis. In their place strides John Reid, who has been representing the Government in the media and chairing the COBRA security committee.

The Mail on Sunday has an excerpt of 10 Downing Street's Grid that reveals "Right-winger Reid's" (a former Communist Party activist) controversial terror speech on Wednesday was supposed to be about the Home Office issues of criminal justice and immigration. As an aside, the social problems created by the influx of immigration are articulated very well by Frank Field MP in the same paper - at least Reid has been stealing Tory policies to deal with them.

Perhaps it is Blair's wish that a proven bruiser has the reins while he takes a break. Despite incurring wrath from the Attorney General, Reid's media exposure on the whole might increase his odds of beating Peter Hain and Alan Johnson to being the next DPM.

Has he found favour, bullied his way through, or is he merely a lightning rod?

Deputy Editor

'Tories should relaunch as Labour think tank'

That is the jokey advice of Matthew Parris in this morning's Times:

"Now that John Reid is taking his speech notes on immigration from old 2005 Tory election posters, here’s another soundbite idea for the Home Secretary, in case he missed the poster first time round: “How would you feel if a bloke on early release attacked your daughter?” He could put it on a Labour billboard.

Next we could have a speech from Patricia Hewitt, the Health Secretary, in which she declares: “I mean, how hard is it to keep a hospital clean?”

This would be followed by a press conference given by Alan Johnson, the Education Secretary, against a printed backdrop message: “What’s wrong with a little discipline in schools?”"

Mr Parris' conclusion: "Perhaps the Conservative Party should quit the unequal struggle to win power in its own name and relaunch itself as a top-flight research organisation for new Labour."

Labour's tendency to steal Tory ideas is one of the great challenges facing Oliver Letwin, party policy chief.  Within the Conservative grassroots there is some impatience for 'policy beef' but early policy ideas risk being stolen by Labour.  ConservativeHome's search for 100 policy ideas begins on Monday.

Related link: Governing by proxy

It's time for Dave to hug-a-striver

Stephan Shakespeare has recently called them the floating non-voters.  Australia's John Howard calls them battlers.  In America they were the Reagan Democrats.  For Mrs Thatcher they became known as Essex Man.  The ConservativeHome dictionary calls them strivers.

Battlers, Reagan Democrats and strivers etc do not encompass exactly the same political constituency but each definition and phrase is pointing to the importance to modern-day conservative parties of lower income, hard-working families.  With many wealthier people drifting leftwards the Conservative Party needs to attract lower income strivers if it is to have any chance of building a winning coalition.

Strivers have been hardest hit by Labour's failures - by stealth taxes, the marriage penalty, crime, rising journey-to-work times, long hospital waiting lists and Gordon Brown’s means-testing maze.  In today's Sunday Telegraph Iain Martin is worried that Project Cameron is failing to talk to the strivers.  The party, he warns, is in thrall to 'Letwinism' and its talk of a more beautiful, socialable Britain - all very well but not likely to butter many parnsips.  Gordon Brown's people, he writes, have noticed this and may have finally alighted upon a strategy to overcome Cameronism:

"After initially painting him as a Right-wing chameleon, the Number 11 team are preparing a more coherent assault on the Conservative leader. The Tories' repositioning, they believe, leaves them talking to a metropolitan, liberal audience that will not decide the result of the next election.  Instead, Mr Brown's focus will be on Britons who strive for a better life for their families on salaries that are on the lowish to middling side.  These, Thatcher's children grown up, are puzzled by what they see of the new Tories: a nice, attractive leader but beyond that a lot of hot air when it comes to the hard realities of improving their lot in life.  That Gordon Brown's policies have trapped some of them in the web of tax credits is immaterial; he will be shameless in appealing to their instincts."

The Tory leadership does not need to abandon its outreach to higher income values voters.  The environmental and social justice messages are essential to unseat LibDem MPs but the party also needs to twin these 'breadth' messages with action on affordable housing, relief from Britain's record tax burden, more action on anti-social behaviour and control of immigration.  It's called the 'politics of and'!

Related link: Cameron woos 'Curtisland'

Watching them, watching us: Blears on Cameron

We recently learnt that Labour intends to paint David Cameron as some sort of slippery estate agent.  More of Labour's tactics are revealed in an interview given to Progress magazine by Labour Chair Hazel Blears:

• People are no longer embarrassed to vote Tory: "‘Until relatively recently I don’t think people were interested in the Tories. People were embarrassed to admit to being Tories. That position has changed.’ The local elections revealed that ‘where they are traditionally strong, the Tories are now coming back quite hard. The vote that stayed at home is now prepared to actually come out.’"
• Labour closer to public on homeland security: "The Tory leader, charges Labour’s chair, is also beginning to betray signs of ‘really poor strategic judgment’... On issues surrounding crime and security, ranging from some of the anti-terrorism measures to the serious organised crime bill and ID cards, the Conservatives are now ‘not sure where they are and whether to align themselves with the civil liberties lobby’. The government’s proposals, by contrast, are ‘where the public are’."
• Unimpressed with Built to Last: "Blears is moreover unimpressed with the statement of aims and values Cameron published at the beginning of the year: ‘motherhood and apple pie, anybody could have written it; so it’s not quite his Clause IV moment.’"
• Economy will be central issue: "‘I think what the public are interested in, when it comes to making the big decisions, is: is this the man you want to be prime minister? Can you trust him if he says one thing and does another, if he says one thing and changes his mind? That then starts to make people think: if you can’t trust him on his policy issues, can you trust him with your mortgage, can you trust him with your job, can you trust him with the interest rates, when [Labour’s] strength is being absolutely solid on the economy? And then you have got the bit that says: if you can’t quite trust him, do I take a risk? And you don’t take a risk on your mortgage and your job and your kids future, do you?’ Blears concludes: ‘I think there is an analysis there that we will build up, that we will work hard on him. But it is not personal, Mr Cameron.’"

Labour are still stealing Tory policies (and implementing them badly)

BBC Online reports that John Reid is planning a "uniformed border-control force" at Britain's air and seaports.  Earlier this week the Home Secretary had announced 8,000 new prison places to deal with overcrowding in UK jails.

A borders police force and more prisons places are settled Tory policy and John Reid's catch-up interventions are further proof of NuLabour's magpie tendencies.

ConservativeHome has described Labour's inclination to adopt Tory policies as enabling us to "govern by proxy".  A host of Tory ideas have been stolen by Labour over the last decade.  The great problem is that they are invariably implemented ineptly or half-heartedly - discrediting the value of the original ideas. 

Shadow Home Secretary David Davis thinks the same pattern is likely with John Reid's borders announcement:

"This is not just about uniform, it's about powers and whether we use all the people: the immigration officers, the customs officers, and the special branch who currently work in the ports as a part of that force; or whether it is just about uniforms. If it's just about uniforms, that's just window dressing... What is necessary is a properly constituted and powerful border control police making use of all possible manpower to maximum effect to protect our borders and with it public safety."

Labour to portray David Cameron as slippery estate agent

Labour's attempt to paint David Cameron as an opportunist chameleon didn't appear to work.  Plan B, according to today's Sunday Times, is to portray the Tory leader "as a much more slippery creature — a floppy-haired estate agent."  Hazel Blears, Labour Chair, used the estate agent attack in a recent post for Labour Home:

"We may buy and sell our houses from estate agents - but would you put one in charge of the country?"

A Labour insider told The Sunday Times:

"Middle England hates estate agents and you can just see Cameron as one. He’s posh, floppy-haired, flash and full of chat. He’s willing to say anything to make the sale, but nowhere to be seen when the roof falls in.”

Charles Smailes - representing some of the nation's 134,000 estate agents - damned the planned campaign as “derogatory and derisory”.  Mr Smailes suggested Labour might be taking revenge for estate agencies' opposition to Home Information Packs.

Tony Blair's 'Michael Howard reshuffle'?

Remember how Michael Howard used his last reshuffle to position people like David Cameron, Liam Fox and George Osborne for the Tory leadership battle?  Is there any possibility that Tony Blair is using his last reshuffle to give Alan Johnson or/ and John Reid the opportunity to take on Gordon Brown?

Blair reshuffles his pack

1.34pm

• Stephen Timms to be Chief Secretary to the Treasury.  Ed Balls to join Treasury team in junior ministerial role.
  
• Hilary Armstrong to have responsibility for social exclusion in Cabinet.

1.02pm

• Radio 4's WATO reporting that Hutton and Hewitt to stay in post.

12.58pm:

• Ruth Kelly takes over ODPM responsibilities.
• Douglas Alexander (Brownite) goes to transport.
• David Miliband to replace Beckett at environment.

11.31am:

• Tessa Jowell and Peter Hain (despite peerage for Peter Law allegation) stay in post.

11.27am:

• This is an extensive reshuffle with a number of big casualties... Hilary Armstrong, Charles Clarke, Ian McCartney.   Has Blair created new, heavyweight critics on the backbenches?

11.25am:

• No news yet on young guns Ed Balls, David Miliband and Douglas Alexander, or troubled ministers Patricia Hewitt or Ruth Kelly.

11.07am:

• Des Browne (Brownite) to Defence...
• Adam Boulton on Sky is questioning whether Hoon will be in Cabinet.

11.02am:

• Alan Johnson (Blairite) moves to education...
• Alistair Darling (Brownite) to DTI...
• Jacqui Smith is new Chief Whip...
• Hazel Blears (Blairite) is new Party Chair...

10.54am:

• John Reid (Blairite) is new Home Secretary.  Charles Clarke (Blairite) unhappy with PM's decision.  PM offered Clarke an alternative job in Cabinet but he has chosen to return to backbenches.
• Margaret Beckett has replaced Jack Straw as Foreign Secretary.
• Jack Straw demoted to Leader of the House.
• Geoff Hoon is new Cabinet Minister for Europe.
• John Prescott stays as Deputy PM and in charge of key Cabinet committees but loses Office of Deputy Prime Minister.

A bad day at the Office

Yesterday's triple whammy will surely be one of the defining moments for this Labour government (see newslinks), one week away from the local elections.

Amid the furore over the accidental release of prisoners, compounded by John Prescott's misdeeds and the heckling of Hewitt, John Hutton denied a Labour meltdown.

Today, the Home Office reports a 21% rise in drugs offences and 6% rise in reported robberies this year.

Some voices have tried to pin its ineptitude down to structural problems, rather than New Labour mis-management. The Guardian blames what David Cameron called "systemic failure" on the Home Office over-stretching itself, despite having at least 15,000 civil servants at its disposal. It hasn't had to manage ID cards yet.

The Home Office claims to be undergoing transformation right at this moment, but the reforms are rather piecemeal compared to what the Financial Times advocates today:

"Once the present mess is under better control, the department's functions should be separated into a ministry of justice and a ministry of the interior. The Home Office is a Whitehall conglomerate that would do better broken up."

The Conservatives are already planning reform of the Police and prisons, David Davis may now be looking at extending this further across the ministry.

Deputy Editor

ChameleonArmy.com

Although yesterday's Mail on Sunday/ BPIX poll found that Labour's Chameleon advertisement had backfired on Labour there is no sign of retreat from the spinmeisters of Millbank.  Distributed to journalists and politicians today was a postcard mocking David Cameron's Norway trip.  Click on the image on the right to enlarge the scan of it.

It's not just BPIX that think the ad backfired - most visitors to this site agreed (even though some of the most enthusiastic bloggers are Cameron-sceptics).  On PoliticalBetting.com, Mike Smithson thinks that the Labour tacticians have made a mistake.  Noting the difficulty that oppositions parties face in winning any publicity, he writes:

"The old adage of never mentioning your opponent’s name should should prevail.  Labour should continue with the strategy that has worked for a decade - just keep on demonising the Conservatives without ever mentioning Cameron."

Labour's next chameleon party political broadcast airs on Thursday.  Before then - at 3pm on Wednesday - ConservativeHome.com will be launching the ChameleonArmy.com.  Be sure to visit then...

The snake and the leech (otherwise known as the Blairs)

Michael Portillo thinks that the Dave-The-Chameleon broadcasts further undermined Tony Blair's moral authority and kept David Cameron - "the green pimpernel" - in the headlines.  This idea that Labour's ad campaign has backfired has some substantiation from a BPIX poll in the Mail on Sunday (not online).  Just 1 in 20 voters thought that Labour's local election broadcast would make them less likely to vote Tory.  1 in 7 said that it would make them more likely to put their cross next to the Conservatives.

The MoS went on to ask what animal BPIX's panel members associated with other leading politicians.  Labour's politicians didn't do well...

A snake was the top choice of animal for Tony Blair (from 1 in 4 respondents);

• 4 in 10 likened John Prescott to a Vietnamese pot-bellied pig (although this might change if the Deputy PM sticks at his new three-times-a-week gym routine);
• Gordon Brown reminds people of a bear;
• Ming Campbell is likened to a tortoise;
• George W Bush to a chimpanzee;
• Margaret Thatcher to a tiger;
• The same number likened David Cameron to a labrador as a chameleon.

48 hours after we learnt that Mrs Blair presented Labour with a £7,700 bill for hairstyling, one-third of the panel identified the Prime Minister's wife with a leech.  The Mail on Sunday also reports that 1 in 6 regarded her as a cat: "Presumably the one that got the cream".  Given that it's St George's Day, I'm surprised there weren't more takers for the dragon.

Times: Labour's bad karma chameleon

Some reactions to Labour's Dave the Chameleon attack ad...

Ann Treneman, The Times: "The Labour Party has taken this small, not to say tiny, idea and gone berserk. You think I exaggerate, but yesterday I attended the launch of Labour’s party political broadcast, which is a cartoon called “Dave the Chameleon”...  It was a themed press conference planned with the same obsessive attention to detail as those parties organised by Starsky and Hutch fanatics. To fit in, you needed to be dressed as a lounge lizard or at least know how to shed your skin.  There were Dave the Chameleon DVDs, mugs, drink mats and T-shirts... Is it just me or is this a new low?"

David Cameron: "Labour are clearly showing that they have run out of steam, run out of ideas, run out of positive things to contribute either at the local level or the national level."

Labour MP Peter Kilfoyle: "Peter Kilfoyle, a former Labour minister, accused party chiefs of making a serious mistake in going ahead with the advert.  I do not believe in negative advertising and I think experience shows us that it is usually counter-productive," he said. "I think people are sick and tired of negative campaigning. It is an import from America which we could well do without." (Quoted in The Telegraph).

Dennis Kavanagh, professor in politics at Liverpool University and an expert on political communications, is more positive. "You can't put something into political consciousness. Adverts work when they go with the grain; when they work with something that already exists - and there is evidence to show people do have these doubts about Cameron and an absence of policies.  "The second thing about good ads is that to make them memorable they engage people's emotions - and one of the best is humour. It's the best form of negativism because it's not seen as negative." (Quoted in The Guardian).

Mark Lawson, The Guardian: "In a voiceover larded with sarcasm, Dave the chameleon is presented as a creature entirely without principle. The only words heard from the Culture Club hit Karma Chameleon, which plays on the soundtrack, are: "I'm a man of no convictions." This is quite as personally vicious a commercial as the "Fagin" poster Labour ran against Michael Howard last year. The only difference - and an interesting one - is that it is nasty about his niceness rather than, as with Howard, his nastiness."

Unoriginalname38, Labour blogger: "It mentioned not one policy. When I say not one policy, I don't mean that it refrained from mentioning Labour policies and attacked the policies of other parties. It didn't even mention the BNP, which even Margaret Hodge seems to think important... It does not surprise me that people don't vote, let alone for Labour, when the best we can do is a cartoon chameleon that doesn't say anything."

Deficient brain blog: "Neo-Labour spends ill-gotten gains on crummy ads".

Roy Smith, 66, an overseas property consultant, was "appalled" by the broadcast and telephoned the BBC to complain. He said: "It was the most appalling piece of negative campaigning I have ever witnessed. It was just personal criticism against one man. There wasn't a single mention of Labour policy." (Again, quoted in The Telegraph).

Labour launch negative campaign against 'Dave the chameleon'

As part of David Cameron's 'vote green, go blue' strategy CCHQ has invited green voters to create their 'personal political broadcasts' on how they would improve their local environments.  Labour have chosen a mix of humour and negativity for their own local election broadcasts.

At a website entitled davethechameleon.com you can watch Labour's attempt to portray the Tory leader as a flip-flopper.  You can download the video on to your iPod.  The video includes subtle and not-so-subtle reminders of David Cameron's Etonian schooldays, his time in PR and his connections with the Major years and the ERM fiasco.  The Tory leader is painted as an opportunist - simultaneously presenting himself as a core Conservative, the heir to Blair and a liberal Conservative.  The Tory leader, it is alleged, has even changed his name from David to Dave in order to get some street cred. The Cameron critics on ConservativeHome will undoubtedly nod their heads through the video until its final message that Cameron is, at the end of the day, a true and unreconstructed Tory!

After initial strategic uncertainty, we have known for a while that Labour have settled on the 'Cameron is trivial and opportunistic' line of attack.  Guido thinks the Labour party have made a mistake:

"Dave wants to emphasise that the Tories have changed, Labour are pushing the message for him... Advertisers always like to keep the message simple - the New Tory message is "we have changed". The details are irrelevant to most voters. Daz does not advertise Persil's new formula, why is New Labour advertising New Tory policy changes?"

Other voters won't like Labour's negative campaigning either.   The voiceover at the end of the video suggests that there are going to be more instalments of 'Dave the Chameleon'.  Can't Gordon and Tony agree on any positive messages for the electorate?

Labour attack Cameron for opportunism and triviality

Labour have opened fire on David Cameron this morning.

John Prescott told Labour's spring conference that Cameron is a "chameleon":

"He can change the colour of his skin at will.  But this political animal underneath is Conservative to the core.  The Tories will come to learn that voters won't trust anyone who writes a right-wing manifesto one month and disowns it a few weeks later.  That is not courage, that is not conviction - it is pure, naked opportunism."

Is the deputy leader of NuLabour really giving us a lecture on "opportunism"?

Also attacking Mr Cameron is Alastair Campbell.  The Mirror reports an email that the Labour spinmeister has sent Labour MPs.  In a series of comparisons Mr Campbell attempts to say that Gordon Brown "has a deeper, more relevant understanding of the challenges facing Britain in the future than a young man who seems to think he can glide to power on a mix of media charm offensives and personal trivia."  This is Campbell's list...

"Cameron rides a bike - Brown has steered Britain through the longest period of sustained economic growth, with unemployment and waiting lists way down.

Cameron took drugs - Brown has funded a doubling in the number of drug-users getting treatment.

Cameron has hired an environmentalist to give his home an eco-friendly makeover - Brown has paid for the insulation of one million pensioner homes.

Cameron opposes chocolate oranges being sold at checkouts - Brown has led the way in helping developing countries sell real oranges.

Cameron hired Bob Geldof as a consultant - Brown persuaded the finance ministers of rich countries to cough up an extra 50billion dollars for Africa.

Cameron plays tennis - Brown has trebled investment in sport, helping to win the Olympic bid for 2012.

Cameron prefers The X Factor to Strictly Come Dancing - Brown has given free TV licences to those over 75 years old.

Cameron is trying to give up smoking and bought nicotine patches at Boots - Brown is trying to eradicate child poverty.

Cameron has tea with 10 sugars before Prime Minister's Questions - Brown helped to deliver a new sugar trade deal that will save EU consumers four billion dollars from 2010.

Cameron ate kebabs at university - Brown is helping Turkey join the EU."

As David Cameron takes tough decisions about the big issues facing Britain - for example: on Iran, on nuclear power, on economic competitiveness - it will be much harder for this knockabout stuff to have any effect whatsoever but it will be important that he does make those tough decisions.  Equally important will be intensive and imaginative demolition of Gordon Brown's record on stealthy taxation, failure to moderate personal indebtedness, the private pension mess, productivity and benefit complexity.  Oberon Houston made a good start at this not so long ago and ConservativeHome should probably start doing a lot, too.

Labour: Cameron is just like Bush

Up until now Labour have been divided on the best critique of David Cameron.  If The Observer is to be believed party strategists appear to have decided to paint the new Tory leader as Bush-like.  The newspaper claims to have seen a report drawn up for Labour's high-command...

"'The last Conservative to successfully seek election as a "different kind of Conservative" was, of course, George W Bush,' it says. Bush's rhetoric was 'modern Conservative' but 'the reality was... tax cuts for the wealthiest, rising unemployment and a weaker safety net for the most vulnerable'."

The Observer continues:

"The document takes aim at Cameron's establishment of commissions to review Tory policy, led by figures including former leader Iain Duncan Smith and 'a bunch of ex-Tory ministers'. Is that, the strategy booklet asks, 'his idea of a centrist future? It's as if Neil Kinnock had put George Galloway, Derek Hatton and Arthur Scargill in charge of the 1987 [Labour] policy review.'"

Is this the best that Labour can do?  On tax, green issues and general disposition there are huge differences between Bush and Cameron.  If anyone is going to be damaged by a closeness to Bush it is Blair himself.