ConservativeHome's ToryDiary

First blood to Cameron in Commons blast at Brown

Gordon Brown has told the Commons that he wants to deliver a new "constitutional settlement" for the British people:

• He promised twelve transfer of powers from the Prime Minister and the Executive to Parliament - including the Executive's powers to declare war, request the dissolution of Parliament and key public appointments (including the Governor of the Bank of England and Church of England bishops).
• He promised the creation of a National Security Council - an idea already proposed by Pauline Neville-Jones some months ago (he went on to nick at least two other Tory ideas).
• He promised a new ministerial code overseen by an independent adjudicator.
• He also called for a cross-party debate on a new written Constitution and floated ideas such as weekend voting and a lower voting age.
• In his only clear nod to the LibDems on PR he promised a full report on the success of the new voting methods used since Labour came to power.
• Some civil libertarians would be pleased with his announcement that the restrictions on protests in Parliament Square could be lifted.

David Cameron then had an opportunity to respond - in his first parliamentary clash with Gordon Brown as the new Prime Minister - and his response was very impressive.  In a key passage he said:

"Constitutional change is not the solution because the constitution is not the cause: the cause is broken promises. People will ask how the person who broke this trust can be the person to mend it."

British life is too centralised, the Leader of the Opposition said, and Gordon Brown had been the great centraliser of the last ten years.

The new Prime Minister wants more openness and honesty but as Chancellor, Gordon Brown had levied taxation stealthily and failed to answer questions on the tax credit chaos.

He challenged Gordon Brown to reverse the transfer of power from democratically elected local councils to unelected regional assemblies.

What was the new Prime Minister going to do about the fact that there were two classes of MP in Britain?  MPs for English seats who had no influence on Scottish matters and Scottish MPs like Gordon Brown who could decide how English hospitals and schools were run.

He ended with an attack on Gordon Brown's failure to grant a referendum on the draft European Treaty.  It was, David Cameron said, yet another broken Labour promise.

The Prime Minister responded by joking that he thought David Cameron had wanted to end Punch and Judy politics.  He quoted Ken Clarke two or three times to back up his positions and embarrass David Cameron but this was definitely an exchange won by the Conservative leader.  He will have raised morale on the Tory benches.  It's the first Brown-Cameron PMQs tomorrow.  ConservativeHome will be live blogging it.

Why Quentin joined Labour

In justifying his resignation from the Conservative Party Quentin Davies listed a number of criticisms of, and personal grievances with, David Cameron. He said very little, however, about why he had joined Labour rather than go independent. He's attempted to do that in an article for the New Statesman today:

New Labour: "In a sense I agreed with New Labour since its inception. After all its two cardinal principles, a competitive enterprise–friendly economy combined with social justice, are what I have stood for all my life."

Brown's government: "First of all it will reflect many of his own well-known qualities. It will be very serious and very thorough. Some people may at times call it unglamorous and boring. Everyone will have to do their homework – and do it very well. The idea of tossing out policy initiatives to suit a PR agenda will be inconceivable. It will also be very straightforward. And there will be a strong sense of purpose and direction."

Threatening times: "There are probably only three Prime Ministers since the Second World War who have faced major physical threats to the country and to our people and territory, Churchill himself, Attlee (who helped to found NATO) and Thatcher (who retook the Falklands). When it comes to the qualities needed to face a really major crisis Gordon Brown is in exactly that tradition."

Click here for the full text.

Deputy Editor

Today's Constitutional announcements are all about Labour-LibDem relations

Later today Gordon Brown will speak to the Commons about his plans for Constitutional reform.  The BBC predicts that he is likely to propose a British bill of rights and to give Parliament the decisive say on going to war and on the scrutiny of more political appointments.  These are all ideas also associated in various forms with David Cameron.  We do not know for sure what Brown is going to say because he is emphasising that he wants to tell Parliament first.  It'll be interesting to see how long that lasts!

Delayed by the terror scares this will be Brown's first substantial announcement as Prime Minister.  The Today programme have trailed it as being his big idea.  Constitutional reform is unlikely to get voters very excited so why is Gordon Brown making such a big deal of it?  It must be all about preparing the way for the possible need for a LibDem-Labour coalition after the next General Election.  Staying in Number 10 is Gordon Brown's real big idea and Constitutional reform is the big carrot he will dangle before Ming or whoever is LibDem leader after the next polling day.

The Express is speculating that Gordon Brown is secretly plotting to change the voting system for Westminster.  A more proportional voting system for MPs would certainly win the backing of LibDems.  I wouldn't expect anything so bold from Brown but hints of PR for the Lords or even local government might be enough to snare them.  We'll blog on the Commons statement later.

Leigh vs Portillo

On the Today programme this morning Edward Leigh and Michael Portillo unsurprisingly offered diametrically opposed perspectives on the direction the Party should be going in. Commenting on Brown's bounce Leigh said:

"The way that we fight back is to show that we are not weak, we are not driven by PR, we are a party of principle. There's only one way they can go, which is the traditional Conservative way, the right policies, the progressive policies of successful countries around the world of low taxation, deregulation, strong immigration controls, strong defence and building on the social responsibility theme of David Cameron. The fact is that traditional policies of all successful Conservative governments since the Second World War have all been much the same."

In response Portillo wheeled out the mantra that those policies lost us the last three elections and he urged Cameron to be a martyr for the centre ground cause:

"It is a moment of crisis, or at least a critical moment, in that it is very important that David Cameron should see off the people who want to undermine the strategy to position the Conservative Party on the centre ground. Many people like what David Cameron is doing, but they are not convinced that the party is following him... David Cameron has to take the party to the centre. It is possible it is not do-able, but he should certainly die in the attempt."

Michael Gove denied that the Party was in crisis but agreed that the election would be won "by sticking to the centre ground". He said Brown wasn't underestimated and that his poll lead is a blip similar to that enjoyed by Eden, Callaghan and Major.

Deputy Editor

Brown bounces

As warned yesterday evening, two opinion polls this morning will put a smile on Gordon Brown's face.  An ICM poll for The Guardian* gives Labour a 4% lead and YouGov for The Daily Telegraph* puts the  Labour lead at 3%.

I cannot find any below-the-headline-detail within The Guardian coverage but there is additional information from YouGov:

• Brown enjoys a 35% to 23% advantage over Cameron on who would be the best PM - this contrasts with a 30% to 25% advantage for Cameron in April.
• Labour is back in the lead on economic competence; 35% to 27%.
• By 52% to 37% voters believe that it is possible for Labour to enjoy a fresh start under Brown.
• 43% are optimistic in some way about Brown as PM but 49% are not optimistic in any way.
• By 48% to 25% voters think Brown is an asset to Labour.
• By 37% to 28% voters think the 'new' Cabinet looks much the same as the old one.

Fieldwork for the ICM survey began after Brown became PM on Wednesday and was finished on Thursday night.  The Telegraph says simply that their YouGov survey was only undertaken after Brown became PM.  It is possible that these polls will only have captured some of the early honeymoon effect, therefore.  Yesterday's newspapers were, for example, very positive about Brown's Cabinet.

Today's Telegraph also covers David Cameron's embrace of 'the politics of and':

"In Wednesday's speech, which was overshadowed by Mr Brown's coronation as Prime Minister, Mr Cameron said he believed in "the politics of and" rather than of "or".  The party leader, according to Conservativehome.com, delighted some shadow Cabinet members, when he said they would be "committed to protecting the environment and would be a party of free enterprise; a party that was tough on crime and its causes - particularly family breakdown; a party that would campaign for a referendum on the EU treaty and would prioritise international development"."

* The changes shown in the graphic above are different from those reported in The Guardian and Telegraph.  That is because ConservativeHome compares with the most recent polls by ICM/ YouGov for any media organisation rather than for the most recent poll for that particular media organisation.

Brace yourself for two bad polls tomorrow...

8pm update: The YouGov/ Telegraph survey gives Labour a 38% to 35% advantage and Brown a 12% advantage over Cameron on best Prime Minister.

An ICM survey for tomorrow's Guardian will put the Labour Party four points ahead (39% to 35%) and there'll be a YouGov poll for The Telegraph that is also expected to give Gordon Brown the lead. I'll provide more as soon as I get it...

A poll published in today's Economist but taken before Gordon Brown entered Number 10 (click on graphic to enlarge for details) gives Cameron relative advantages  on tax, the EU, improving schools, improving the NHS and reducing immigration.  There's nothing much to choose between the two leaders on climate change and Gordon Brown enjoys a solid advantage on strengthening the economy.  UK Polling Report has commentary here.

A Populus poll for today's Daily Politics programme on BBC1 (that was conducted at the start of this month) found that 48% agreed that Mr Cameron was "superficial and lacks any clear convictions".  40% disagreed.  36% said Mr Cameron had the "strength and judgment to be a good prime minister".  49% said he did not.  54% agreed that it was "no longer clear what the Conservative Party stands for".  36% disagreed.

How should Cameron respond to Brown? (On security)

Thanks for your reply to my opening post of yesterday.  Because I agreed with just about everything you wrote and in the light of today's aborted bomb attack I thought we should shift our exchange to how the Tories should respond to Brown on homeland security and - furthermore - how the Tories can show some leadership on this issue.

My own belief is that it won't be too long before one or more of these attacks are successful.  Security issues will then rocket up the agenda and we know that this could help Brown. I don't think voters will blame our new PM for attacks in the same way many voters mistakenly blamed Blair and his Iraq policy for 7/7.  Even when Brown was in the opinion poll doldrums a few months back he led on security issues.

The Tories are probably right to say that this incompetent Labour government won't get ID cards to work and that the expenditure would be better spent on "community policing, more prison places, drug rehab services and a proper border police force" (as David Cameron wrote in yesterday's Sun).  The message that always seems to come over most loudly, however, is our opposition to security measures that Labour propose rather than our own ideas.

I think we need a big hitter who is in charge of our security message and that person should certainly sit in the shadow cabinet.  David Cameron has waited too long to replace Patrick Mercer and when he reshuffles next week I wonder if he could persuade Baron Trimble or Lord Stevens* to be the Tory spokesman on this issue?  Both could help the Tories get back in the game on this topic.  What do you think?

That person could then take the lead in exposing Labour's appeasement of extremist Muslim groups, the need for much greater investment in intelligence, the improvement of infrastructural resilience and the case for allowing intercept evidence.  Protecting the public should be any government's top priority.  Team Cameron need to demonstrate they understand that.

Best wishes,

4.15PM UPDATE: MATTHEW D'ANCONA HAS NOW RESPONDED (BRILLIANTLY)

* 4.25PM: "Commenting after Lord Stevens was appointed adviser on security to the Prime Minister, Shadow Home Secretary, David Davis, said:  "We welcome this appointment. We hope it will lead to a more measured response to the security threats we face.""  Lord Stevens continues as head of the Conservative Party UK Border Police Taskforce.

In comes Brown, income taxes

'In comes Brown... income taxes' is the message on conservatives.com this morning and the graphic on the right (click it to enlarge it) is an encouragement to donate to the Conservative Party.  Click here if you want to give.

Another way you can help is to join the new Campaign Together email list.  I signed up yesterday.

How should Cameron respond to Brown?

In the first of a series of exchanges between Tim Montgomerie, Editor of ConservativeHome, and Matthew d'Ancona, Editor of The Spectator, Tim suggests some first steps for Project Cameron in 'the Brown era'.

I'm glad to be doing this exchange of thoughts with you again and many congratulations on the Coffee House blog.  It's quickly become essential reading.

Brown has had a good few days and it's beyond doubt that he should not be underestimated.  I think David Cameron should expect some tricky opinion poll ratings in the next couple of weeks.  If the party can hold its nerve over the coming period, however, I am hopeful that Project Cameron can still succeed.

What should the Tories do next?  First of all, I no longer think Mr Cameron should undertake a major reshuffle.  I expect the 'big beasts' - Hague, Osborne and Davis - to keep their jobs.  There is a case for some changes and for talent like Michael Gove to be promoted.  The best course of action for David Cameron is to maximise the number of people who stay in position.  Brown has undertaken a massive reshuffle in order to reinforce his change message but moving ministers and reorganising departments is distracting and not without perils.  Having Tory spokesmen in command of their briefs - opposite Labour newbies could be useful.  I'm hearing that the Tory reshuffle will be early next week.  Have you heard the same?

My main recommendations for next steps are as straightforward as ABC...

• A is for authenticity: Labour is determined to portray Cameron as weak and superficial.  Oliver Letwin's policy review process presents the party with a great opportunity to show that it, not Labour, has done the long-term thinking about Britain's deepest problems.  In studying these reports David Cameron should not be afraid to embrace some tough recommendations.  I'm sure he'll get them from Iain Duncan Smith on the family and John Gummer/ Zac Goldsmith on the environment.  The worst position for the Conservative leader to end up in is to have said the family and the environment are important and then be afraid to adopt policies that will actually make a genuine difference.  Authenticity in policy isn't enough.  If David Cameron is going to insist that air travel isn't good for the planet he needs to stop taking so many domestic flights and start holidaying in Cornwall.  He needs to walk the walk or at least take the train!
• B is for breadth: The need to keep the Conservative coalition together is being recognised a bit more.  Many traditional Tory supporters - offended by the grammar schools row - will have been reassured by this week's clear leadership on the referendum on the EU Treaty but we need more of the same.  Last night's remarks by David Cameron that he's committed to the 'And theory' and that crime, family values and Euroscepticism are as part of his mix as the NHS, greenery and tackling the causes of crime is very welcome.  Again, the summer policy review should be used to prove that we are not a narrow party of the centre or of the right - but a broad party - embracing a broad coalition.
• C is for courtesy: This may seem an unimportant third point but I think it might be the most important one.  A lot of traditional Tories feel quite bruised by the Cameron project.  Telling supporters of grammar schools that they were "delusional" was incredibly unhelpful.  I'm hearing rumblings from Ealing Southall that the local Association were hardly involved in the choice of the candidate.  There are party candidates all over the country who hardly receive any information about selection processes.  Quentin Davies (for whom I have zero sympathy) might - just might - not have defected if Team Cameron had spent time listening to his concerns.  The Whips Office need to stop their hamfisted attempt to frustrate the work of the Cornerstone Group of Tory MPs.  The circle around the leader needs to be more open and friendlier.

Anyway, that's enough for the moment.  Over to you,

4.45pm: MATT HAS NOW RESPONDED ON THE COFFEE HOUSE BLOG.

Rolling blog on the reshuffle (continued)

5.08pm: Ian Austin and Angela Smith will be Brown's Parliamentary Private Secretaries.

5.06pm: Baroness Scotland is the new Attorney General, and Lord Grocott is Lords Chief Whip and Captain of the Gentlemen at Arms

4.57pm: As well as having a Minister for the North, ministers have been appointed to adopt regions. Caroline Flint and Liam Byrne are amongst those given roles.

3.34pm: Nick Brown is said to be Deputy Chief Whip and.... Minister for the North!

1.55pm: Andy Burnham is Chief Secretary to the Treasury, and Beverley "Visa" Hughes takes charge of Children and Youth Justice.

1.39pm: Mark Malloch Brown joins the FCO as a junior minister for the small matters of Africa, Asia and the United Nations. This is a telling appointment, because as Kofi Annan's former deputy at the UN he was a strong critic of the US. He spoke at the last Conservative conference about global poverty.

1.36pm: Tessa Jowell has lost her Cabinet status but retains responsibility for the Olympics.

1.30pm: CCHQ are on the ball - they've already released a dossier of the failings of most of the new Cabinet members. Click continue on this post to read it.

1.21pm: Ed Miliband will join his brother at Cabinet meetings, having responsibility for the Cabinet Office.

1.17pm: John Denham is back in the Government with Innovations, Universities and Skills.

1.14pm: Yvette Cooper has Housing

1.11pm: Tory defector Shaun Woodward has been appointed Northern Ireland Secretary.

12.54am: Question marks remain over Yvette Cooper, Stephen Timms and Tessa Jowell. Housing, Northern Ireland, Europe and The Duchy of Lancaster are amongst the last positions up for grabs.

12.25am: More women appointees - Baroness Scotland is new Attorney General and Baroness Ashton is new Leader of the Lords.

12.20am: Des Browne stays on at Defence, and also takes on Scotland. Adam Boulton says 20 of 22 positions have changed hands.

12.17am: Jack Straw confirmed as the Justice Secretary

12.10am: Baroness Williams talking to the BBC confirms that she hasn't been offered a ministerial position, instead being asked to take up some sort of unpaid, unwhipped, advisory role on WMD - subject to Menzies Campbell's approval.

12.05am: Ed Balls gets one half of the former education portfolio - Schools & Children

11.54am: Hilary Benn gets the Environment portfolio.

11.52am: Confirmation of this morning's speculation that Geoff Hoon will get Chief Whip and Harriet Harman Leader of the House. Will there be a Deputy Prime Minister?

11.49am: Hazel Blears takes up Ruth Kelly's former role as Communities and Loval Government Secretary, another Blairite kept in.

11.44am: Ruth Kelly takes up Douglas Alexander's former role as Transport Secretary, the second woman confirmed so far.

11.36am: John Hutton is the new Trade and Industry Secretary. Rumours that the DTI will be scrapped look less likely now, although Sky are calling him Business and Enterprise Secretary.

11.33am: Jacqui Smith's big promotion to the Home Office has been confirmed by the BBC.

PREVIOUS UPDATES HERE

How to beat Brown

David Cameron writes for The Sun this morning and tackles him on four key areas:

• The need for a referendum on the new EU Treaty. Describing Tony Blair's agreement with other European leaders as a "sell-out" Mr Cameron says that the new EU foreign policy apparatus puts our relationship with America at risk. , He says that honouring the 2005 Labour promise to give the British people a referendum should be at the top of Mr Brown's in-tray.
• The NHS. "Labour have doubled spending on health - but does anyone think the health service is twice as good?"  Mr Cameron calls for an immediate stop to A&E and maternity service cuts and urges Gordon Brown to embrace the Tory plan to stop political interference in day-to-day decisions.
• Schools. The Conservative leader calls for Conservative ideas on discipline and rigorous teaching methods to be adopted by the Government.
• Fighting crime. "Instead of wasting billions on an ID card scheme that won't work, the new Prime Minister should do the things that will make a real difference in protecting our security: community policing, more prison places, drug rehab services and a proper border police force."

Rolling blog on the reshuffle

ROLLING BLOG CONTINUES ABOVE

11.24am: Jacqui Smith looks like she'll almost certainly be the first female Home Secretary.

11:17am: James Purnell, who has been a familiar face in the media recently, replaces Tessa Jowell as Culture, Media & Sport Secretary - a brief the former BBC man has been an adviser to Blair on. It's not clear if he will take on her Olympics brief as well.

10.50am: Peter Hain to get Work and Pensions so what will John Hutton get?

10.48am: Alan Johnson confirmed as the new Health Secretary.

10.37am: BBC reports John Hutton staying in the Cabinet, Harman to be Leader of the Commons.

10.07am: John Denham - opponent of Iraq war - may return as Home Secretary.

10.05am: BBC is reporting that Shirley Williams was offered a non-ministerial job to tackle nuclear proliferation.  She is still considering whether or not to say 'yes'.  Williams and Brown holiday together in America.

9.50am: Patten has described talk of him defecting as "drivel".  Rifkind laughed off suggestions that he was defecting.  Bercow is with Tory MPs in members tea room this morning.  Let's stop the defection gossip!  Slap on own wrist included.

9.45am: Tory reshuffle expected next Monday or Tuesday.

9.15am: Douglas Alexander to be International Development Secretary - he's going to find it difficult to coordinate Labour's General Election from Mozambique!  It's a bit of a bad message to send about international development, too.  Is Brown's commitment to Africa only worth a part-time Cabinet minister?

Thursday 8.20am: Nick Robinson has just been on the Today programme and has given his take on the reasons for some of Brown's likely appointments today:

• Darling is dull and boring and voters want someone reassuring in charge of the nation's finances;
• Miliband is going to the FO despite/ because he was furious at the Lebanon war and was never a real believer in the Iraq war (if true, the White House ain't going to be happy);
• Alan Johnson is going to health because Brown thinks the NHS isn't so much in crisis but has very bad PR and Johnson, as a great communicator, will be able to calm voter anxieties;
• Ed Balls will go to schools and skills because that is where the new PM thinks change is really necessary and the Chancellor's long-time key ally is the man to deliver it.

Thursday 8am: This is what the newspapers are thinking this morning:

• Darling certain for Treasury, Miliband for FO
• Some sort of role for Baroness (Shirley) Williams
• As well as Beckett and Hewitt, Baroness Amos will be the third Blairite woman to leave the Cabinet
• Jack Straw will replace Lord Falconer at the new Justice post
• Alan Johnson will move to Health
• Ed Balls to schools although the Education Department will be thinner as there is likely to be a new science department within a wider reorganisation of government machinery (Ben Brogan says James Purnell may get the higher education part of the education portfolio)
• Ed Miliband to the Cabinet Office
• Geoff Hoon, that great survivor, to Chief Whip
• Des Browne to move
• Harman may be Leader of the House as well as Party Chair according to The Times' Sam Coates.

10pm: Growing speculation that Chris Patten may defect.

5.45pm: The Spectator blog is tipping Miliband to succeed Beckett.

5.25pm: It is confirmed that Blair will be quitting as Sedgefield's MP.  That'll stretch the LibDems' by-election operation.

5.05pm: Tony Blair will be Middle East envoy for The Quartet.

4.40pm: Hewitt to stand down as Health Secretary. No big surprise but still very welcome.

Brown to replace Benn with Bercow?

There is a lot of blog-fuelled speculation about another defector to Camp Brown.  A lot of it is focusing on John Bercow but he has denied that he intends to defect.  Sam Coates of The Times (who has been blogging fascinating stuff all day) does suggest, however, that Gordon Brown might invite the Conservative MP to become Secretary of State for International Development.  I disagree with John on many things but I greatly respect his commitment to development issues and human rights.  My guess is that he would find it a difficult offer to resist.  He might insist on staying a Tory MP and then David Cameron would face a difficult decision: Should he remove the whip from a member of a Labour Cabinet?  All speculation at this stage but very interesting.  He's already travelled from the Monday Club to being a very socially liberal moderniser who opposes tax cuts.  His wife is a Labour supporter.  Joining Brown's Cabinet would not be a very surprising next step in his journey.  It would certainly be much more credible than Quentin Davies' defection (who is pictured here on the Labour benches today).

And so it begins... (or is that 'continues')

CCHQ has greeted Prime Minister Gordon Brown with this press release:

"Gordon Brown has today tried to bury details of over £100,000 of political donations to his leadership campaign from a raft of rich businessmen and trade unions.

While attention has been focused on the change of Prime Minister, an obscure file lodged with the Electoral Commission this morning reveals:

• Nearly half of the Board of Trustees of the Smith Institute - including the Chairman - have given cash donations to his leadership campaign. The controversial think tank is currently under investigation by the Charity Commission over its use by the Chancellor for political campaigning.
• A Labour peer who provoked a row over his tax status has doubled his donations to Gordon Brown and given a further £20,000 in cash through Caparo Industries, whose parent company is based in the British Virgin Islands.
• A fourth businessman, Labour peer Lord Simon, who was appointed by Gordon Brown to a Treasury panel on public services has now donated cash. This comes after three businessmen who were appointed by the Chancellor to Government posts were revealed last month as donors.

Commenting, Shadow Cabinet Member, Chris Grayling said:

“Gordon Brown has spent his entire leadership campaign promising to restore trust in politics. Now as soon as he’s become Prime Minister, he’s trying to burying bad news about embarrassing donations to his campaign. This sort of spinning doesn’t bode well for his time in Number 10”."

Yet again it is Chris Grayling taking the lead on an issue like this.  Chris was on this morning's Today programme re Quentin Davies.  Alan Duncan did all of the media yesterday on the defection.  Where was the Party Chairman?  Absent from the grammar schools row, Francis Maude is absent again now.  Extraordinary.

David Cameron speaks to WebCameron about today's PMQs and Gordon Brown

"Tony Blair's remarkable achievement" - not a headline you'll see again soon on conservatives.com

Resign and fight a by-election says Quentin Davies' Chairman

Responding to the news that Quentin Davies MP has resigned from the Conservative Party and joined the Labour Party, Simon Chapman (regular CH commenter), the Chairman of the Grantham & Stamford Conservative Association, said:

“I heard this news from Quentin Davies with enormous surprise and disappointment.  He has let down his constituents and his local party members very badly, and displayed great ill-judgement.

David Cameron has launched the most substantial and heavyweight policy review that the Conservative Party has had for generations. As Quentin Davies well knows, that is due to report this summer. Under David Cameron’s leadership the Conservative Party will show that it alone can solve the deep-seated challenges facing Britain in the 21st century, so many of which have been directly caused by the control freakery and incompetence of Gordon Brown. I have no doubt that under David’s leadership the Party will go on to win the next election whenever it is called.

I am astonished to hear about Quentin Davies’s new-found admiration for Gordon Brown, which has not been at all evident before this afternoon. If he is as straightforward and devoted to his constituents as he protests, no doubt he will resign and fight a by-election, so that that the people can decide. Until then, Quentin will have the same lack of democratic mandate that his new leader does.”

What others say about the defection

William Hill are taking bets on another: "10/1 Labour MP to go Tory. After a Tory MP defected to Labour, William Hill offer 5/1 that another one will do so before the end of next year; and 10/1 that a Labour MP will cross the floor to join the Conservatives."

Ben Brogan has talked to Davies (as has Nick Robinson) who told him he doesn't want to go to the Lords: "I've just had a word with Quentin Davies. He made up his mind at the weekend, and met with the Chancellor yesterday to announce his decision. He then showed Mr Brown the letter he planned to send to Mr Cameron, which was delivered to the Tory leader's office at the same time as it was released to the Press Association at 2.45 today. Mr Davies and Mr Cameron have not spoken."

Mark Littler is pessimistic on the 18DS blog: "In a party already so divided, it is hard to imagine how, if at all, Cameron can recover from such a major setback, particularly bearing in mind the disastrous timing. The question on many peoples minds will be however, whether or not the new Labour MP will find his way into the cabinet, and if this defection is merely the tip of the iceberg – a taste of things yet to come."

Martin Hill, Conservative leader of Lincolnshire County Council, told the BBC: "I think it's a slap in the face for all of those people who supported and went round for him. I feel very strongly, I don't approve of politicians who stand under one flag and then change to another flag for their own convenience. It is an act of treachery and betrayal, frankly."

Quoted in the same BBC piece Lord Tebbit is on good form: "This defection will raise the average standard of members on the Conservative side and lower it on the Labour side", David Davis said he was "extremely surprised" and Nicolas Winterton wished him "good riddance".

Facebook has a new group created by ex-CCHQ staffer Laura Clark entitled: "When MPs defect there should be a by-election"

Nigel Evans MP on Facebook: "Quentin Davies is doing the Temple Morris Shuffle to the Lords....pathetic......he should resign today and let the people of his seat decide which Party they want representing them in Westminster. His letter is pure poison set to deliver the worst damage to Cameron, whilst his timing is pure choreography timed to deliver the best lift to Brown."

Alastair Burt MP on this post: "As a long time friend of Quentin DaviesI cannot tell you how personally betrayed I feel. He has no idea of what he has done. The weasel words do him no credit. We all have to compromise at times to work with a team, and reap the benefits of that teams hard work on our behalf, from those who work for us locally, with none of the pay and perks of an MP, to the colleagues who stand shoulder to shoulder with us. I rarely have a harsh word for anyone. But Quentin? Don't even bother to call or come near your former colleagues. Contempt does not begin to cover it."

We'll update this with any other good ones you point to...

David Cameron's response to Davies

"Dear Quentin,

Thank you for your letter. Your decision does not come as a surprise to me.

The Conservative Party has changed, as you say. We need to do more to protect the environment and tackle climate change. That will mean taking tough measures on carbon emissions. And it does mean looking at ways to encourage greater use of alternative sources of energy. Of course, I will also continue to stand up for Britain’s interests in Europe, and work to give the British people the referendum they were promised.

People see that we are now focusing on what matters to them. That is why so many people are supporting us once again – as shown in May, when we won over 900 Council seats.

I am sorry that you feel unable to be part of today’s Conservative Party, and join us in campaigning on what matters to people – for example, against the NHS cuts or for a better deal for pensioners. The big dividing line in British politics is between Labour’s approach of top down State control and the Conservative vision of pushing power outwards and downwards from central government, trusting people and sharing responsibility with them. You have made your choice and the British people will make theirs.

Thank you for your support in the past. We will watch your future career with interest."

Keep those seatbelts fastened

When I recommended that we all fasten our seatbelts last week I expected many difficult moments during the Brown honeymoon but not today's defection of Quentin Davies to Labour.

I knew he was unhappy with Project Cameron.  He has felt shabbily treated by the leadership.  A lifelong Europhile he wrote for ConservativeHome only two weeks ago - disagreeing with the party's alleged politicking on Iraq.  I bumped into him during the grammar schools row and he told me that he was unhappy with the leadership's line.  But he was in favour of grammar schools!  Why is he joining a party that hates selection?  Mr Davies has opposed ID cards and the Government's anti-terror measures.  He has opposed the ban on foxhunting.  He opposed Labour on tuition fees.  He opposes state funding of political parties.  Mr Davies cannot easily accuse David Cameron of having no bedrock and then defect to a party with a worldview that stands in contradiction to his own twenty year parliamentary record.

Labour are clever in the way they spun Mr Davies' defection.  The subheadline on the BBC website is: Tory MP Quentin Davies defects to Labour, saying David Cameron does not "stand for anything".

The long letter he sent to Mr Cameron mentioned a number of areas of difference - including over nuclear power.  But at the heart of his defection is Europe and the EPP row.  CCHQ will now be frightened that other Europhile MPs and MEPs, in particular, might defect if the party campaigns strongly against the draft Treaty.  Mr Cameron must not retreat from his Euroscepticism.  The party must not be held to ransom by a small number of MPs who are out of touch with the rest of the country.  Cameron must not look like he can be bullied into changing his position.  Labour are already determined to present him as weak.

In his letter he makes a big deal about Mr Cameron supposedly breaking his pledge on the EPP.  What about Mr Davies' pledge to the voters of Grantham and Stamford?  They thought they were electing a loyal Tory.  I feel sorry for his activists in Lincolnshire.  I spoke at their political supper club at the start of the year.  They were loyal to him despite his enthusiasm for Europe.  He has betrayed that loyalty. At least they'll soon be able to choose a new candidate who will be closer to their views.

I wonder if Mr Davies will be on Mr Brown's frontbench by the end of the week?  In fact I wonder if this defection is rooted in Mr Brown making an Ashdown-style approach to Mr Davies to serve in his Government?

And all of us?  We must not over-react.  A few weeks ago the newspapers thought that Brown was unlikely to save Labour.  They'll all be singing his praises in the next few days but it probably won't last.  There does need to be more breadth and depth to Project Cameron but it will be hard to say that there is nothing to it after this summer's schedule of policy announcements.  I am also confident that the new communications guru, Andy Coulson, will help the party to develop stronger messages for our core voters and strivers.  Labour's failure on tax, crime, immigration and fighting poverty will also become clearer and clearer.  Keep those belts fastened everyone.

Quentin Davies MP defects to Labour!

In a letter to David Cameron today he said: "Under your leadership the Conservative Party appears to me to have ceased collectively to believe in anything, or to stand for anything.  It has no bedrock. It exists on shifting sands. A sense of mission has been replaced by a PR agenda."

Davies has been Conservative MP for Grantham and Stamford for 20 years. Defecting from his party is a massive step.

As a europhile Davies strongly opposed leaving the EPP and, as he wrote on ConservativeHome two weeks, recently went against the Party line in voting against an inquiry into Iraq.

Deputy Editor

3.25pm update: FULL TEXT OF DAVIES' LETTER TO MR CAMERON

"I have been a member of the Conservative Party for over 30 years, and have served for 20 years in the Parliamentary Party, in a variety of backbench and front bench roles.

This has usually been a great pleasure, and always a great privilege.  It is therefore with much sadness that I write you this letter. But you are entitled to know the truth.

Under your leadership the Conservative Party appears to me to have ceased collectively to believe in anything, or to stand for anything.

It has no bedrock. It exists on shifting sands. A sense of mission has been replaced by a PR agenda.

For the first 19 years of my time in the House, in common I imagine with the great majority of my colleagues, it never occurred to me to leave the party, whatever its current vicissitudes.

Ties of familiarity, of friendship, and above all of commitment to constituency supporters are for all of us very strong and incredibly difficult to break.

But they cannot be the basis for living a lie - for continuing in an organisation when one no longer has respect for its leadership or understanding of its aims.

I have come to that appreciation slowly and painfully and as a result of many things, some of which are set out below.

The first horrible realisation that I might not be able to continue came last year. My initial reaction was to suppress it.

You had come to office as leader of the party committed to break a solemn agreement we had with the European People's Party to sit with them in the EPP-ED Group during the currency of this European Parliament.

For seven months you vacillated, and during that time we had several conversations.

It was quite clear to me that you had no qualms in principle about tearing up this agreement, and that it was only the balance of prevailing political pressures which led you ultimately to stop short of doing so (though since then you have hardly acted in good faith in continuing with the agreement, for example you never attend the EPP-ED Summits claiming that you are "too busy" - even though half a dozen or more Prime Ministers are always present.)

Of course I knew that you had put yourself in a position such that if you did not leave the EPP-ED Group you would be breaking other promises you had given to colleagues, and on which many of them had counted in voting for you at the leadership election.

But that I fear only made the position worse. The trouble with trying to face both ways is that you are likely to lose everybody's confidence.

Aside from the rather significant issues of principle involved, you have of course paid a practical price for your easy promises.

You are the first leader of the Conservative Party who (for different reasons) will not be received either by the President of the United States, or by the Chancellor of Germany (up to, and very much including, Iain Duncan Smith every one of your predecessors was most welcome both in the White House and in all the chancelleries of Europe).

It is fair to say that you have so far made a shambles of  your foreign policy, and that would be a great handicap to you - and, more seriously, to the country - if you ever came to power.

I have never done business with people who deliberately break contracts, and I knew last year that if you left the EPP-ED Group I could no longer remain in a party under your leadership.

In fact you held back and I tried to put this ugly incident out of my mind and carry on.

But the last year has been a series of shocks and disappointments. You have displayed to the full both the vacuity and the cynicism of your favourite slogan 'change to win'.

One day in January, I think a Wednesday or Thursday, you and George Osborne discovered that Gordon Brown was to make a speech on the environment the following Monday.

You wished to pre-empt him. So without any consultation with anyone - experts, think tanks, the industry, even the Shadow Cabinet - you announced an airline or flight tax which as you have subsequently heard from me in a long paper (which has never been refuted) and I am sure from many others, is certainly defective and contradictory - and in my view complete nonsense.

The PR pressures had overridden any considerations of economic rationality or national interest, or even what would have been to others normal businesslike prudence.

Equally it seems that your hasty rejection of nuclear energy as a 'last resort' was also driven by your PR imperatives rather than by other considerations. Many colleagues hope that that will be the subject of your next u-turn.

You regularly (I think on a pre-arranged PR grid or timetable) make apparent policy statements which are then revealed to have no intended content at all. They appear to be made merely to strike a pose, to contribute to an image.

You thus sometimes treat important subjects with the utmost frivolity.  Examples are 'inequality' (the 'Polly Toynbee' moment - again you had a paper from me!), marriage and the tax system (even your own Party Chairman was unable to explain on the BBC what you really meant) and, most recently, mass consultation of the public on policy decisions. (In view of your complete failure to consult with anyone, within the Party or outside it, on many of the matters I have touched on, or on many others, the latter was perhaps intended as a joke).

Of course I could go on - up to three weeks ago when you were prepared to stoop to putting forward a resolution on Iraq (demanding an inquiry while our military involvement continues) which it was admitted at a Party meeting the following Monday (by George Osborne in your presence) was motivated by party political considerations. That was a particularly bad moment.

Believe it or not I have no personal animus against you. You have always been perfectly courteous in our dealings. You are intelligent and charming.

As you know, however, I never supported you for the leadership of the Party - even when, after my preferred candidate Ken Clarke had been defeated in the first round, it was blindingly obvious that you were going to win.

Nor, for the same reasons, have I ever sought office in your shadow administration.

Although you have many positive qualities you have three, superficiality, unreliability and an apparent lack of any clear convictions, which in my view ought to exclude you from the position of national leadership to which you aspire and which it is the presumed purpose of the Conservative Party to achieve.

Believing that as I do, I clearly cannot honestly remain in the Party.  I do not intend to leave public life. On the contrary I am looking forward to joining another party with which I have found increasingly I am naturally in agreement and which has just acquired a leader I have always greatly admired, who I believe is entirely straightforward, and who has a towering record, and a clear vision for the future of our country which I fully share.

Because my constituents, to whose interests of course I remain devoted, are entitled to know the full background, I am releasing this letter to the press."

Fantasy Cabinet predictions

Forgetting for a moment that any Cabinet led by Gordon Brown is hardly a fantasy come true, who do you think will fill the slots I identify below...

Deputy Prime Minister: Jack Straw (and Leader of the House, Howe-style).
Chancellor: Alistair Darling
Foreign Secretary: Hillary Benn
Home Secretary: Alan Johnson
What to do with David Miliband?: Head of bigger Environment Ministry
Surprise appointment: Neil Kinnock (don't know what to).

A General Election within one year?

Iain Dale has already noted the BBC's OTT coverage of Brown's first day as Labour leader.  Throughout this week I'll be keeping a daily eye on the coverage of The Daily Mail and of The Sun of Brown's first week as Tony Blair's successor.  Both newspapers will be crucial influences on whether Brown can maintain the coalition of voters that delivered three victories for Mr Blair.  Both have a history of indulging the Chancellor.

Both newspapers have more or less the same front page splashes: 'Election In A Year' (The Sun - which bills its story as an exclusive!) and 'Brown Gears Up For Sping Election' (The Daily Mail).  Have they been spun by the man who has promised to end spin? Or are their political antennae making the same conclusions from the appointment of Douglas Alexander as General Election Coordinator?

EU referendum: Page two of The Sun declares 'Over To EU: Irish Referendum Pressure On Gord'.  Political Editor George Pascoe Watson quotes William Hague and piles the pressure on 'Gord' to  honour 2005's Labour manifesto promise.  In The Mail there is extensive coverage of William Hague's intervention, Melanie Phillips writes that Brown will deserve to forfeit voters' trust if he does not grant a referendum and the Mail leader says: "Mr Brown insists that he wants the public to be 'informed and consulted'. But not, apparently, on Europe. He holds out no hope of a referendum."

Harriet Harman: Neither newspaper is impressed with Harriet Harman's victory.  The Mail describes her as an "ice cold feminist" and reminds us of her 'Harriet Harperson' nickname (shouldn't that be Harperkin to avoid the reference to 'son'?!).  Both newspapers say that Brown has snubbed her by giving her a "non-job" (The Sun).  The Sun's overall verdict on HH:

"The election of Harriet Harman as Deputy Leader cast a shadow over Mr Brown’s unopposed inheritance of the job he has waited thirteen long years for.  But the man who the Queen will appoint Prime Minister on Wednesday showed he is quick-witted and ruthless.  Within minutes of Ms Harman’s election he made it clear she will NOT be the new Deputy Prime Minister in place of John Prescott.  Though as party chairman Harriet will have a similar role to hopeless old Two Jags — keeping the Old Labour lefties in line.  They won’t mind her disowning of the Iraq conflict as “wrong”.  They might agree with her thumbs down to nuclear power, a suicidal policy that would leave us at the mercy of the unpredictable Russians and the volatile Middle East.  Who knows?  The trouble is that she is so politically correct some of her MP colleagues call her Harriet Harperson.  Mr Brown spotted her weaknesses a mile off — which shows he has good judgment as he prepares to announce his new Cabinet.  He will have enough on his plate fulfilling his promises on housing, education and the NHS without having Ms Harman making a mess of one of the great Ministries."

The Brown speech: Both newspapers say that they are waiting for the beef but both gave the general message a thumbs up.  The Sun said "Gordon Brown had an almost perfect day."  The Mail:

"After such a very long time to gather his thoughts, Gordon Brown could be expected to press all the right buttons when he made his maiden speech as Labour leader. He did not disappoint.  Education, the NHS, housing, voters' disenchantment with the political process, fear of crime and worries about devolution - each was mentioned as he accepted the party crown at the conclusion of his non-election... Mr Brown has proved beyond doubt his ability to command a great office of state. Now he has to bring the same skill to the whole business of government."

Strong Brown: Both newspapers - particularly with regard to non-jobbing Harriet Harman - emphasised Brown's ruthlessness. The new Labour leader won't mind that.

Other stories: It's often not the editorial line but the selection of stories that most influences readers.  Today's Mail was encouraging in that respect.  Here are some anti-Government headlines in today's newspaper:

• East Europe migrants bring surge in pickpocketing crime
• Quarter of marriages revealed as sham as rules are tightened
• Now pupils might miss out on a place at university if their parents have good jobs
• Labour has lost support of doctors says BMA boss
• Mum denied cancer drug funding has to sell her house
• ASBOs leading to more crime
• Prisoners released without checks in rush to free-up cells

It will be relentless news stories like that which will eventually do for Brown.  I hope.

Gordon Brown

Gordon Brown gave a solid speech today.  On housing, the NHS, fighting child poverty, opposing racism, being on the side of rural communities, making Britain a world leader in climate change and neighbourhood policing he made all of the right noises.  He should not be underestimated.

New Deputy Leader Harriet Harman will be Party Chair.  Long-time Brownite Douglas Alexander will be General Election co-ordinator.

Used many traditional Tory words like "duty", "trust", "aspiration" and "security".

Heavy emphasis at the end of the speech that he will be the change that the country wants - not the Tories.

Once the smokescreen of the next few days and weeks has cleared, however, he cannot escape from his record.  Here are ten lowlights:

1. More than 100 extra taxes - stealthily imposed - so that our tax burden has risen above that of Germany;
2. Gold reserves sold at the low point of the market;
3. His £100bn raid on pensions;
4. His underfunding of the armed forces that meant Blair had to fight a war on a peacetime budget;
5. His underfunding of prisons that lies at the heart of the law and order crisis in Britain;
6. Extraordinary waste from the Dome to the Olympics and everything inbetween;
7. Missed child poverty targets;
8. The HIPS fiasco;
9. A neglect of green issues in every Budget until very recently;
10. A broken promise on giving the British people a referendum on the EU draft treaty.

VIDEO LINK: GOING DOWN WITH GORDON BROWN