ConservativeHome's ToryDiary

Shadow cabinet to retain outside interests after all

It was being suggested at the beginning of November that David Cameron intended putting an end to members of the Shadow Cabinet retaining lucrative outside interests.

However, the FT is now reporting that he has been forced to backtrack amid a potential rebellion from within the ranks.

It cites one anonymous shadow cabinet member as blaming the previous report on "kite-flying" by the well-paid strategist Steve Hilton:

“Even if no one quit, this would have created real unhappiness and why sour things now? You’d get people calling on the party to pay their tax bills for next year and asking why Andy Coulson [Mr Cameron’s press chief] is paid so much more than them."

Shadow business secretary, Alan Duncan, was typically robust in his defence of senior shadow ministers retaining outside interests:

“Better to be part-time wise than full-time ignorant.”

I am sympathetic to the view that a blanket ban on all outside jobs would be wrong and that there is only a problem if any outside interests are adversely affecting an individual's ability to carry out his front bench duties.

However, in order to be taken as a serious government-in-waiting, politics has to come first and I was somewhat concerned recently to hear the following story about a member of the shadow cabinet: he had apparently already told David Cameron that he didn't want a higher profile post than that which he currently holds in advance of the general election, because he didn't want to give up other interests on account of time commitments or potential conflicts of interest involved in a different post.

Such an attitude at this juncture is unacceptable.

Jonathan Isaby

Jeremy Hunt MP takes further step towards heart of Project Cameron as party's 'online spokesman'

Talking to ConHome, Jeremy Hunt said:

"David Cameron is absolutely determined that the Conservatives will be the most technologically literate of all parties at next election. That requires a root and branch reform of our campaigning. Online campaigning is essential to reaching younger voters who don't have tribal loyalties of many older voters. It is a huge challenge for us to match what America's political parties did in the presidential elections. Having seen the online team that has been assembled I am hopeful that we'll be able to stay ahead of the game.  I'm really looking forward to my new role."

This new role for Jeremy Hunt is confirmation of the Tory leadership's high view of him.

Alongside Eric Pickles and Chris Grayling he is a hot tip to be the next Party Chairman if Caroline Spelman is moved or resigns.  The Observer's Gaby Hinsliff reports that Mrs Spelman may receive an "unsatisfactory acquittal".  The length of the inquiry into Mrs Spelman's employment of her former nanny and secretary is of enormous frustration to the Tory leadership.  With CCHQ ready for an election as early as next month - and more possibly by April - David Cameron may now decide it's too close to an election to change Chairman.

> Video profile of Jeremy Hunt

Give us your questions for Eric Pickles

Eric Pickles, the shadow secretary of state or communities and local government, has agreed to answer questions from ConservativeHome readers. Leave your questions below, we'll put a broad selection of them to Eric and then publish his reponses.

The comments thread is now closed and we'll publish Eric's responses very soon.

Grassroots have a message for George Osborne

PoliticsHome had already found a significant slump in support for George Osborne amongst the electorate at large.  Despite this website's efforts, support for the Shadow Chancellor has also plunged among the Tory grassroots.  Our latest survey of over 1,600 rank-and-file members found that 49% were satisfied with Mr Osborne but 47% were dissatisfied; a net positive rating of just 2%. That is a huge shift since last month when George Osborne enjoyed a net positive rating of +70%.

Three shadow cabinet ministers have plunged in previous surveys.  Andrew Lansley - after appearing to suggest large increases in NHS spending; David Willetts - after the grammar schools row; and Caroline Spelman after concerns about the employment of her nanny.  Mr Lansley's ratings recovered almost immediately; David Willetts has now recovered most of his drop; Mrs Spelman has yet to recover at all.  Time will tell if the grassroots have soured against Mr Osborne for a long period or are using this poll to send a warning shot across his bows.  Those small number who left comments explaining their low rating for George Osborne were evenly divided in citing the Yachtgate affair and an alleged lacklustre response to the recession.

Also down somewhat - but far less dramatically - is Liam Fox.  He was near the very top of the league table but is now 8th - falling below Alan Duncan, Michael Gove, Chris Grayling and Eric Pickles over the last year.

The survey contains some good news for Theresa Villiers.  The Shadow Transport Secretary's net rating is up 15%.  This may be due to her opposition to a third runway for Heathrow.  The policy is certainly supported by Tory members.  By 65% to 22% they support the proposal for a high speed rail line instead of a third runway.

Full shadow cabinet rankings are below.

Shadow cabinet unhappy at Cameron's plan to stop outside interests

The News of the World reports that David Cameron hopes to stop his shadow cabinet from pursuing outside interests as the General Election approaches.  A "source from David Cameron's office" told the newspaper:

“We cannot have potential conflicts of interests as we try to look like a government-in-waiting. However, this is not a popular project and we are getting a lot of resistance. There will come a point when David will have to issue an order but we are worried we could lose some people over this.”

"A senior member of the Shadow Cabinet" commented:

“I don’t want to take a pay cut 18 months before a general election just so it looks good on paper. We all go to extraordinary lengths to ensure there are no conflicts of interests. Some people could lose out on £200,000 a year by this, and I know one or two would walk out if that were imposed now.”

Criticism of the shadow cabinet's outside interests reached a peak in the summer of last year.  The Daily Mail's Ben Brogan worried that a 'part-time' shadow cabinet was being insufficiently energetic in attacking Gordon Brown.

Show off the top team

David Cameron usually appears on his own at his monthly press conference and always puts in pretty flawless performances.

In recommending that he appears alongside his top colleagues we are not suggesting therefore that there is any weakness in David Cameron's command of the issues.  But if his press conferences regularly involve other colleagues - making statements as well as answering questions - he starts to communicate the depth and breadth of the Tory team.

Our politics is too presidential.  Our party's frontbench is more than the equal of Brown's.  Let's show it off.

> Step 8/10: The Tories need a responsible tax cut plan to beat Labour's irresponsible tax cut plan

There must be room for forgiving-and-forgetting in Project Cameron

Over the nearly three years since David Cameron became leader a fair number of talented individuals have left the frontbench for a variety of reasons.  We think of Graham Brady, Mark Field, Bernard Jenkin, Patrick Mercer and Hugo Swire, for example.  One or two of them should be brought back.  There is a great deal of talent within that group and it would also be unifying for the party leadership to show that it is willing to forgive and forget some past differences.

> Step 2/10: The Cameron circle needs to be bigger

The Cameron circle needs to be bigger

In many ways the 'big Conservative tent' is functioning again under David Cameron.  Big beasts like Michael Heseltine, Ken Clarke, IDS and John Redwood were all used in the policy review process.

In other respects, however, Project Cameron is built around far too tight a circle.  Frontbenchers complain that they are not involved in their development of their policy briefs.  Very few of the party's big economic brains have been actively consulted by the leadership on the current challenges.  The shadow cabinet rarely takes important decisions.  David Cameron has no equivalent of the Policy or Strategy Boards that ensured that MPs rather than advisers 'owned' the big political calls.  4.30pm: CCHQ has told us that there is a policy board. Its membership is:

• William Hague
• Oliver Letwin
• David Cameron
• George Osborne
• Philip Hammond
• Francis Maude
• PLUS The relevant shadow cabinet minister when his/her policy area is under discussion.
  

Our apologies for that.

It is difficult to run a party and impossible to run a government when the leader's inner circle remains relatively closed to outside advice.  We've worried about this before and it remains a problem.

> Step 1/10: Tories need to explain their macroeconomic strategy for the recession

David Hunt gets the job of opposing Mandelson in the Lords

Congratulations and good luck to Lord Hunt of Wirral - David Hunt - who has been appointed as Tory spokesman on Business, Enterprise and Regulation in the House of Lords.

It's not the first time Lord Hunt has accepted a daunting task.  During the accident-prone Major years he became known as Minister for Banana Skins; not his own but clearing up the elephant traps left by and for others.  He was also Employment Secretary and a champion of Christian Democracy.  He may be the first of an increasing number of (thought-to-be-retired) Major years ministers to serve David Cameron.

Baroness Wilcox - former Head of the National Consumer Council - will join Greg Clark's team as the new Shadow Minister for Energy and Climate Change.

Lord Strathclyde commented: “I am delighted to announce David and Judith’s new roles.  David’s experience is outstanding. We welcome him onto the Front Bench, and Judith is the perfect person to head our new Shadow Energy team.”

Greg Clark MP is new Shadow Climate Secretary

In a very welcome appointment (one ConHome recommended) Greg Clark MP has been chosen to shadow Ed Miliband as Shadow Secretary of State for Energy and Climate Change.  Nick Hurd MP will replace Greg as Charities spokesman.

That may be the extent of the Tory reshuffle.

4.05pm: An email from CCHQ notes that Shadow Climate Minister will be Greg Barker MP and Shadow Energy Minister will be Charles Hendry MP.

Narrow majorities of Tory members support returns for our own Big Beasts

Two opinion polls have shown a modest bounce for the Conservatives from our Party conference.  Yesterday's ICM survey and today's YouGov poll for The Telegraph.  A headline lead of 14% would produce a Conservative majority of over 100.  We still would prefer to wait a fortnight to see the underlying state of public opinion.  By then the immediate effects of the Conference season will diminish and the public will also have chance to reflect on Gordon Brown's reconstruction of his Government.  The details of the YouGov poll are more interesting:

The numbers show that the Tories have an edge but they're far too close for any complacency.

Brown is determined to present himself as the man who can navigate Britain through this crisis.  Labour strategists will be delighted at the 40% to 39% figure in the above results.  They are willing to swallow 'Lord Sleaze' headlines if the overall impression that is left by yesterday's reshuffles is one of an experienced government getting down to tackle serious economic problems.  Conservatives must tackle this challenge by giving serious consideration to new frontbench roles for Ken Clarke and John Redwood (as discussed here two weeks ago).  Conservative members support the return of both men.  These are the results of our recent survey on 'Returning Big Beasts' to the Tory frontbench:

"There is some discussion that David Cameron's first Cabinet should include some of the big beasts from the Major years. Which of the following individuals would you like to return to the frontbench?"

> Yesterday's ToryDiary on other Tory reshuffle considerations

Futures of Ainsworth and Spelman will be at heart of the now necessary Tory reshuffle

David Cameron may have wanted to avoid a reshuffle but Gordon Brown's decision to create a new Department of Energy and Climate Change (see CentreRight thread) will force the Conservative leader to reshuffle his pack.

Ed Miliband's new Department takes energy and the environment from two other portfolios.  Will David Cameron put current Environment and Rural Affairs spokesman Peter Ainsworth in the job or give it to someone else?  Oliver Letwin apparently hoped to be Energy Secretary once David Cameron was in Number Ten.

A new Government department certainly means there's room for one more face around the shadow cabinet table.  We hope that will be Greg Clark.  He's the brightest and best of those not yet at the top table.  Appointing Greg would show that intellectual seriousness was trumping gender as the key appointment criteria.

Other possible moves include Ed Vaizey or Maria Miller to international development and Eric Pickles or Jeremy Hunt to replace Caroline Spelman.

At a more junior level David Cameron should reappoint Graham Brady, Mark Field, Bernard Jenkin or/ and Patrick Mercer.  He should show that there's forgiveness in his leadership and a way back for people who have in some way disappointed him.

David Cameron: Britain needs change, not experience

These key extracts from David Cameron's speech has been pre-released:

“If we win, we will inherit a huge deficit and an economy in a mess. We will need to do difficult and unpopular things for the long term good of the country. I know that. I’m ready for that."

"There is a big argument I want to make - about the financial crisis and the economic downturn facing the country too. It’s an argument about experience. To do difficult things for the long-term, or even to get us through the financial crisis in the long term, it’s not experience we need - it’s character and judgment. To rebuild our economy, it’s not more of the same we need, but change.

"Experience is the argument of the incumbent over the ages. Experience is what they always say when they try to stop change."

POSTSCRIPT

The BBC has analysed the 400,000 words from the publicly-available speeches that David Cameron has made since he became leader in December 2005.  Read the analysis here but most notable is the consistency of his references to the NHS (and not to immigration) and the fact that Iain Duncan Smith gets more name checks than any other member of his team - a tribute to the importance of IDS' social justice agenda.

Could Michael Howard and other Major-era ministers join Ken Clarke in Cameron's first Cabinet?

The defining feature of the Blair-Brown years has been incompetence. A massive gap between often good ideas and implementation. The reasons are many but include a decline in the quality of the civil service (a decline related to over-centralisation and the targets culture) but also ministers that lack many basic executive skills.

An awareness of this caused David Cameron to appoint Francis Maude to oversee a preparation-for-government or 'Implementation Office'.  The Office's work will headline at the Birmingham Party Conference.  The Office's operating model was roadtested by the election of Boris Johnson and with mixed results.

Other big thinking on this front focuses on the Downing Street operation and the membership of the first Cameron Cabinet.  The Observer recently reported an outreach operation to Tony Blair's advisers. That outreach may be politically uncomfortable for some Conservatives but it's very sensible to learn lessons from people who have experience of managing the Downing Street-to-Whitehall relationship.

Most interesting, however, is talk of bringing back a number of Major-era Cabinet ministers.  Ken Clarke's return has already been well-trailed (and given a thumbs up by most Tory members).  Also thought possible is the return of Michael Howard as Lord Chancellor.  The other top three big beast of the last Major Cabinet - Sir Malcolm Rifkind - is also available. Other individuals that might return to the Cabinet include Stephen Dorrell, John Gummer, John Redwood and Peter Lilley (all used by Mr Cameron in his policy review process).  David Cameron is concerned that his shadow cabinet lacks ministerial experience.  Only William Hague has served at Cabinet level.  Four or five of the individuals serving in the shadow cabinet at the next General Election arte unlikely to make it to the top table should office follow polling day.  Only when they have proven themselves at minister of state level will they replace the Major generation - expected to serve for two or three years while a new generation is blooded.

Readers of ConHome who enjoy a bet might also place some money on Lord Trimble playing a role and also a LibDem like David Laws.  Cameron doesn't intend to repeat Blair's mistake and stop the lovebombing of the LibDems once a first victory is in the bag.

1.30pm: Iain Dale has taken up the theme of this post with a specific recommendation that Ken Clarke be Cameron's Chancellor.

Do the Tories have a Sarah Palin?

One shadow cabinet minister has described Sarah Palin as "the hottest governor from the coldest state"!

Time will tell if McCain's electrifying pick will stand the test of time but it has already produced a massive boost to Republican fundraising and neutralised Barack Obama's post-Denver bounce.

Is there a Sarah Palin within the Tory Party?  Not necessarily a woman but a up-and-coming and under-used talent who has the potential to connect with new voters.  Suggestions in the thread below please...

Caroline Spelman slumps in shadow cabinet league table

ConservativeHome now carries out its shadow cabinet surveys just once every two months.  The latest ratings are below with most recent on the right and reflect the votes of 1,587 members.  For new readers the percentages equal the number of members who say they are satisfied with the individual minus those dissatisfied.

Some movements of note:

• Eric Pickles has moved into second spot after shooting to near the top of the league after Crewe and Nantwich.  The Telegraph's Iain Martin has reported some briefing against Eric Pickles in recent days from key Cameroons.  They are trying to paint Eric as some sort of media tart who doesn't share credit.  ConHome spoke to Eric on most days during the Crewe campaign and he constantly paid tribute to the work of others, not least Stephen Gilbert.  This nasty briefing should stop.
• Michael Gove actually moves up one percentage point, suggesting no knock from his controversial 'Zoo' and 'Nuts' remarks.
• Andrew Lansley has now completely restored his standing following the slump that followed his interview to The Times about NHS spending.
• Dominic Grieve - who members most wanted in the shadow cabinet at the turn of the year - earns a first rating of +40%.  Perfectly respectable but well down on former Shadow Home Secretary David Davis' final rating of +87%.
• It's good to see solid improvements in the standings of Owen Paterson and Andrew Mitchell.  Members must have noticed Mr Mitchell's leading role in the hugely successful Rwanda trip and Owen Paterson's pivotal role in the new alliance with the Ulster Unionists.
• After so long rated poorly, Francis Maude is now scoring +18%.  His important preparations-for-government work may be the factor.
• The survey is obviously bad news for Party Chairman Caroline Spelman.  More members are now dissatisfied with her than satisfied.  From the beginning we have believed in Mrs Spelman's integrity but only a 100% exoneration from the Parliamentary Commissioner for Standards is now likely to restore her standing.

1. William Hague +87% | +89% | +83%
2. Eric Pickles +42% | +76% | +82%
3. George Osborne +66% | +72% | +75%
4. Chris Grayling +62% | +64% | +70%
5. Michael Gove +55% | +62% | +63%
6. Liam Fox +64% | +71% | +62%
7. Alan Duncan +57% | +65% | +58%
8. Lord Strathclyde +51% | +55% | +52%
9. Andrew Lansley +32% | +42% | +50%
10. Nick Herbert +44% | +45% | +49%
11. Philip Hammond +35% | +44% | +48%
12. Pauline Neville-Jones +38% | +39% | +44%
13. Dominic Grieve N/A | N/A | +40%
14. Patrick McLoughlin +20% | +33% | +35%
15. Jeremy Hunt +26% | +30% | +31%
16. Oliver Letwin +20% | +31% | +29%
17. Owen Paterson +19% | +21% | +26%
18. Andrew Mitchell +18% | +16% | +25%
19. David Willetts +22% | +23% | +22%
20. Peter Ainsworth +20% | +24% | +21%
21. Francis Maude -9% | +15% | +18%
22. Sayeeda Warsi +27% | +20% | +16%
23. Theresa May +10% | +20% | +15%
24. Cheryl Gillan +13% | +16% | +14%
25. Theresa Villers +10% | +8% | +10%
26. David Mundell -2% | +3% | +1%
27. Caroline Spelman +30% | +32% | -7%

The Cameron-Osborne rock

Rachel Sylvester, from her new perch in The Times, suggests that there is "a fundamental disagreement" between David Cameron and George Osborne when it comes to the family. Rachel Sylvester is probably right in saying there are differences. ConHome has heard the same.  Osborne is more socially liberal than Mr Cameron (and also, as a matter of fact, more hawkish on foreign policy) but it's not a "hot" dispute. Mr Cameron began his leadership campaign with a pledge to recognise marriage in the tax system and there'll be no retreat from that pledge. In a recent speech to the Centre for Policy Studies Mr Osborne was emphatic in his support for the party's family policies - recognising that stronger families were essential to reduce the long-term welfare burden.

Given the "hot" tensions between Brown and Blair it is understandable that journalists are keen to see parallels in the Cameron-Osborne relationship (Peter Oborne has done the same).  It is probably true that Mr Osborne is at least as influential as Mr Brown was in the comparative stage of preparing for government.  Mr Osborne as General Election coordinator has made a large share of the biggest strategic decisions over the last year - shaking up Campaign Boris, hiring Andy Coulson, making the inheritance tax promise.  But there isn't the rivalry that existed between Brown and Blair.  The two men get on well and with Andy Coulson and Steve Hilton are members of what Iain Martin has called The Quartet - the group of four that makes all the big judgments about Tory strategy.  It was David Davis' exclusion from the inner circle (not the formal meetings, which he sometimes chaired) that contributed to his decision to resign from the frontbench.

If the two most powerful men in the Conservative Party agreed on everything it would be spooky.  It's good that they see some things slightly differently.  Mr Osborne is more of a hare, Mr Cameron more of a tortoise although the Tory leader is apparently now readier than his Shadow Chancellor to push towards lower taxation.  Ms Sylvester is also unlikely to find the wider party unhappy with Mr Cameron's policy on marriage (Tim Yeo and a few others excepted).  ConservativeHome's own poll of the next generation of Conservative candidates found 93% favoured support for marriage from the tax system.

5pm: With the Daily Mail jumping on to the Sylvester story it's worth noting this line from George Osborne's July speech: "We are committed to introducing a recognition of marriage into the tax system." Seems pretty unambiguous to us.

Does it matter that 19 of 29 shadow cabinet ministers are millionaires?

That's the result of research by the News of the World - summarised in the graphic on the right.

An interesting journalistic exercise but is it of any interest to voters?  Should it be of any interest to voters?

Fraser Nelson answers 'yes'.

Here are some questions you might like to answer:

Given that most shadow cabinet ministers are so wealthy is it time that they stopped pursuing so many outside interests and focused on their frontbench briefs?

Do the nineteen millionaires in the shadow cabinet have the authority to order backbenchers (who 'only' have the basic parliamentary remuneration) to vote against higher MPs' pay?

Will voters be impressed by the ability of these Conservatives to make money?  Hammond and Hunt, in particular, are successful entrepreneurs.  As Fraser writes: "The News of the World research shows it’s almost all earned rather than inherited because Cameron’s team is mix of people who have been successful in diverse fields."  A shadow cabinet of business people (the Conservatives) is more likely to succeed than a Cabinet of political lifers (Labour).

Will voters conclude that Conservatives are not like normal people - insulated from the current economic realities of falling disposable incomes?

Eric Pickles for Party Chairman

A new YouGov poll for The Sunday Times gives the Conservatives a whopping 22% lead.  The temptation for David Cameron will be to take no major risks with policy and personnel.  The likeliest personnel change is, however, a change of Party Chairman.

The Mail on Sunday is reporting anger amongst unnamed female MPs at a "whispering campaign" against Mrs Spelman.  Mrs Spelman's defenders attack private briefings in which her axeing is said to be "certain".  In the current environment where voter tolerance of political sleaze is at breaking point, even the slightest criticism of Mrs Spelman in the forthcoming report into the employment of her nanny will result in her resignation.  A ConservativeHome poll of 1,470 party members carried out on 30th June to 5th July shows overwhelming support for Eric Pickles to replace her by the time of the Party Conference:

The Mail on Sunday quotes a defender of Mrs Spelman as saying that appointing Eric to the top job at CCHQ would be "a major setback to Mr Cameron’s attempt to change the party’s ‘white male’ image."  But, it could equally be argued, that Mr Pickles does much more to tackle perceptions that the Tories are too southern and too elitist.   Promotions for Maria Miller and Justine Greening - who has performed a first class task on VED - would also show that Mr Cameron remains committed to promoting female talent.

Mr Pickles has come under fire from some CCHQ insiders for being too willing to take the glory for the victory in Crewe and Nantwich but the overwhelming view of colleagues and staffers is admiration.  Not an easy man to categorise politically, Mr Pickles is not 'of the right' in the way that David Davis is but his appointment would restore some of the balance that was lost when Mr Davis left David Cameron's top team.  Mr Pickles would be a superb, campaigning Party Chairman for the Conservatives in a run-up to the General Election.  We hope he gets the nod.

Candidates for a reshuffle

Iain Dale suggested five names for inclusion in the shadow cabinet yesterday: Greg Clark, Damian Green, Ed Vaizey, Maria Miller and David Burrowes.  We agree with all of those suggestions although Justine Greening is a more likely bet than Damian Green.  Greg Clark is certainly one of the party's most outstanding talents (we tipped him for the top on 3rd January).  Alongside Michael Gove, Nick Herbert and Jeremy Hunt (our three to watch) he will be one of the party's biggest guns in the years to come.  David Burrowes is another excellent tip and it would be good to see him go to a post like international development.  David has believed for a long time that international development should be central to Conservatism and he would lift its status enormously.

More difficult for David Cameron is who to remove from the top table.  He may make one or two demotions but is unlikely to drop five shadow cabinet members.  Caroline Spelman - regardless of the outcome of the inquiry into her employment of her nanny/ secretary - is very vulnerable.  Most party members would like to see her replaced by Eric Pickles.

Away from the shadow cabinet, who would you like to see promoted from the backbench to the frontbench?

Top of our list would be another Greg, Greg Hands.  Greg is hugely industrious and played an important behind-the-scenes role in Boris Johnson's campaign and has also been part of the extraordinary Tory revival in Hammersmith & Fulham.  Stephen Crabb is another MP deserving of the frontbench.  A role consistent with his interest in human rights, international development and foreign affairs would be a particularly good match.

We'd also like to see rehabilitation for some of the talent that has left the frontbench for different reasons during David Cameron's leadership.  We think of Graham Brady (who left on a matter of principle), Mark Field and, of course, Patrick Mercer.  Restoring one or more of this group to the frontbench - Mark Field would be excellent on economic and legal issues, for example - would show that there was a way back into Team Cameron even if there had been a difference in the past.

The Telegraph makes mischief

"Every morning at nine, Mr Cameron meets key aides and shadow ministers including William Hague, Michael Gove and George Osborne. Mr Davis has always been put out that he is not invited."

Those two sentences appeared in yesterday's Telegraph, from Robert Winnett.  Quite damaging on the face of it but not true.  We happen to know that David Davis attended the morning meeting as often as George Osborne.  When David Cameron and William Hague are both away David Davis actually chaired the meeting. 

Not content with getting it wrong once the Telegraph's Political Editor Andy Porter repeats the idea again this morning:

"Davis was irked that despite his seniority, he was rarely asked to attend the Tories' regular 9am strategy meetings. Instead, the close cabal is made up of George Osborne, Michael Gove and William Hague; chiefs of staff Ed Llewellyn and Catherine Fall; and communications chief Andy Coulson. Steve Hilton, the Svengali figure credited with rebranding the Tories, used to attend, but recently his appearances have been limited, as he prepares to move to California."

The Telegraph would be on stronger ground if it wrote about the closeness of David Cameron and George Osborne, for example.  (Only natural given Mr Osborne's chairmanship of Cameron's leadership bid).  They didn't do that but have made very specific and more troubling accusations about David Davis being sidelined from this key meeting.  We know that The Telegraph is not writing the truth.  We can't believe that CCHQ hasn't told The Telegraph that it's untrue.  Why The Telegraph persists in writing it is the real question.

10am, Sunday 15th June: David Davis, interviewed by Andrew Marr, confirmed that he did attend the 9.15am strategy meeting.

3pm, Sunday: Andrew Porter has now blogged on these morning meetings.

Five reflections on an incredible day

Every politician and journalist and blogger has been bowled over by today's events.

Here are a few thoughts on what has happened:

(1) There is a gulf between the reactions of the Westminster village and the general public.  The villagers are interested in David Davis throwing away the chance to be Home Secretary and what this means for Project Cameron.  Most of the public is simply applauding a politician who has resigned his seat on an issue of principle.  They're impressed.  DD might soon have the status of his chum, Tony Benn and others like Frank Field, Clare Short and Ann Widdecombe.  Big hitting, principled people but not entirely comfortable with conventional politics.

(2) David Cameron called the decision "courageous" but, in many ways, David Davis isn't taking much of a risk.  He's certain to be re-elected but, on the other hand, he risks not being part of the first Conservative government of the 21st century.

(3) David Cameron's decision not to appoint an Acting SHS but a permanent replacement in Dominic Grieve shows a ruthlessness from the Conservative leader.  David Cameron could have kept the position open.  He didn't.  By appointing Dominic Grieve the Tory leader signalled that there'll be no retreat from the stance that DD has taken on civil liberties.  Mr Grieve's support for the Human Rights Act may mean trouble ahead, however.

(4) What will David Davis do when he returns to Parliament?  Accept a more junior shadow cabinet position?  Unlikely.  He'll probably go to the backbenches and champion certain causes.  David Davis is also a tax cutter.  Will he make the case for small government conservatism when he's back?

(5) How will David Davis keep his campaign in the news?  It's been a massive story today and will lead tomorrow's newspapers.  But, but...  Will the campaign stay in the news if DD doesn't have serious opponents in the by-election?  Will he win his contest but on a low turnout?  Will this story still be alive on Monday?

Dominic Grieve: Tories will repeal 42 days

In his first announcement as the new Shadow Home Secretary Dominic Grieve confirmed that the Conservatives will repeal 42 days pre-charge detention if it is passed.

Our congratulations to Dominic Grieve.  He is a true gentleman and has been passed over for too long.

He was Conservative members' top choice for the shadow cabinet in our turn-of-the-year poll.

Liam Fox is leader of the Right within shadow cabinet

Earlier this week we published the results of our survey of leading 'voices of the parliamentary Right' from outside the frontbench.  John Redwood, then Norman Tebbit, then IDS were the voices most recognised by Tory members.  We also ran a separate question for the frontbench: "Who is the single most effective voice of 'the Right' on the Conservative frontbench, including the shadow cabinet and the House of Lords?"

Unlike with the question for the non-frontbench we asked people to 'write in' answers.  In other words, they didn't have a list to choose from.  94% of the 1,159 people who volunteered an answer identified just three people: Liam Fox, David Davis and William Hague:

The survey shows that 44% of members regard Dr Liam Fox, Shadow Defence Secretary as the most effective voice of the Right on the frontbench.  In many ways Dr Fox fits the popular idea of a 'right-winger'.  He is strongly pro-American and Eurosceptic.   He is pro-marriage and supports a much lower time limit on abortion.  He favours lower taxation and advocated much more patient choice when he was the party's health spokesman.  Like IDS, however, he is also at the forefront of the party's social justice agenda.  The language of 'broken society' agenda was first employed by Dr Fox during his leadership bid.  Writing for ConservativeHome in November 2005, Michael Gove drew parallels with the Fox and Cameron agendas.  Michael Gove's article makes even more interesting reading in retrospect.

Is David Cameron planning a summer clear-out of the shadow cabinet?

Ben Brogan writes that he is in The Daily Mail.  Only a "Magnificent Seven" are definitely safe apparently.  That all-male magnificent seven are "George Osborne, William Hague, Chris Grayling, David Davis, Michael Gove, Andrew Lansley and Patrick McLaughlin."  That should be McLoughlin, Daily Mail!

But if those who are the M7 there are others that are also pretty safe:

• Philip Hammond, Osborne's deputy.  Mr Hammond is regarded as a safe, competent pair of hands.
• Nick Herbert and Jeremy Hunt - newly promoted last year and both are thought to be doing good jobs.
• Sayeeda Warsi and Pauline Neville-Jones - both installed as peers last year and it would be far too early to end their new careers.  By all accounts David Cameron is pleased with their work.
• Caroline Spelman MP - although not a powerful party chairman she has done a good job in keeping CCHQ out of the news and the operation has ticked over nicely during her tenure.  Not every chairman has managed that.  Candidate selection issues are set to become tricky again, however, but that's another story for after 1st May.
• Lord Strathclyde, loved by the grassroots and a master of the Upper House.  Unless Tom is moving on for personal reasons it is difficult to see him not going into Government with David Cameron.  We expect the popular Baroness Anelay to stay as Opposition Chief Whip too.
• Oliver Letwin, still an important influence on the leader - just outside the inner quartet of Cameron, Osborne, Hilton and Coulson.
• Owen Paterson, only promoted to shadow cabinet last year and has handled his Northern Ireland brief very effectively.
• Alan Duncan, has done important outreach work to the business community and is one of the party's most effective media operators.

That takes us up to eighteen as the number of shadow cabinet ministers that are pretty safe.