ConservativeHome's ToryDiary

The steady rise of Philip Hammond

No big movements emerge from this month's shadow cabinet ratings although it is notable that Ken Clarke and George Osborne are both up by more than ten percentage points.  One thing that I will highlight, however, is the solid rating now given to Philip Hammond MP, Shadow Chief Secretary to the Treasury.  Political Betting's Mike Smithson spotlighted him last night too.  It's not been a spectacular rise but party members are steadily marking up Mr Hammond as each month goes by.  The Chief Secretary to the Treasury - traditionally a guardian of Treasury money - will play a vital role in the next government.  Tory members appear pleased with the man that David Cameron has given that job. 

FULL SHADOW CABINET RATINGS
Party members satisfied minus dissatisfied for September, November and December 2008 and February, March and April 2009 (latest numbers on right):

1. William Hague +82% | +85% | +73% | +72% | +76% | +80%
2. Chris Grayling +69% | +70% | +74% | +71% | +69% | +73%
3. Michael Gove +60% | +62% | +67% | +66% | +70% | +71%
4. Dominic Grieve +51% | +63% | +69% | +63% | +65% | +66%
5. Liam Fox +52% | +46% | +44% | +48% | +54% | +58%
6. Lord Strathclyde +50% | +52% | +55% | +52% | +54% | +57%
7. Philip Hammond +45% | +46% | +43% | +45% | +49% | +55%
8. George Osborne +70% | +2% | +30% | +34% | +43% | +55%
9. Eric Pickles +75% | +71% | +75% | +70% | +50% | +55%
10. Alan Duncan +55% | +55% | +57% | +49% | +50% | +53%
11. Ken Clarke N/A | N/A | N/A | +57% | +43% | +51%
12. Pauline Neville-Jones +43% | +44% | +43% | +44% | +47% | +48%
13. Andrew Lansley +45% | +43% | +42% | +39% | +44% | +44%
14. Grant Shapps N/A | N/A | N/A | +25% | +36% | +40%
15. Jeremy Hunt +33% | +39% | +36% | +33% | +37% | +39%
16. David Willetts +21% | +27% | +28% | +20% | +30% | +35%
17. Nick Herbert +44% | +45% | +42% | +32% | +33% | +34%
18. Patrick McLoughlin +33% | +26% | +28% | +26% | +30% | +30%
19. Owen Paterson +23% | +24% | +29% | +24% | +28% | +30%
20. Oliver Letwin +26% | +27% | +20% | +18% | +20% | +22%
21. Theresa Villers +4% | +19% | +17% | +19% | +20% | +22%
22. Greg Clark N/A | +23% | +15% | +18% | +24% | +20%
23. Mark Francois N/A | N/A | N/A | +8% | +21% | +20%
24. Theresa May +5% | +3% | +7% | +2% | +12% | +16%
25. Andrew Mitchell +19% | +18% | +15% | +16% | +20% | +16%
26. Cheryl Gillan +10% | +12% | +8% | +7% | +14% | +13%
27. Francis Maude +17% | +11% | +10% | +6% | +11% | +13%
28. Caroline Spelman -8% | -5% | -10% | -1% | +13% | +12%
29. Sayeeda Warsi +11% | +16% | +10% | +8% | +6% | +12%
30. David Mundell +2% | +3% | +4% | +0% | +7% | +7%

1,368 Tory members voted on 22nd and 23rd April.

Tim Montgomerie

Andrew Mackay speaks about his role as David Cameron's "mine sweeper"

One of the most important - yet relatively unnoticed - players in Team Cameron is Andrew Mackay, the Bracknell MP who revels in the title "senior parliamentary and political adviser to David Cameron".

His only appearance in the spotlight in this capacity came in December when he dashed (along with a cameraman) to Damian Green's office when it was being searched by the police. You can see the footage here.

Mr Mackay has now spoken for the first time about his role working for the Tory leader in an interview with his local paper, the Bracknell News (although the interview itself does not appear on the paper's website). I am grateful, therefore, to Sky News's Jon Craig (who I seem to recall lives in that vicinity) who has written up what Mr Mackay says on the Sky News blog.

Here's what Mr Mackay says:

“He [David Cameron] wanted me on board because he has a lot of bright, young advisers and ministers, but I have been around for a few years and done various jobs and I can be his eyes and ears, or as he puts it to me, I am his mine sweeper. In other words, I pick the mines out of the water before they explode, which sometimes I succeed in doing. It’s been one of the most exciting jobs I have done in Parliament.

“It’s a really, really interesting job and it puts me at the heart of the party and decision making. I’m with David all the time. I’m at the morning meetings when William Hague, George Osborne, myself and others decide the strategy for the day.

"It’s very exciting to have a bright, young, new leader who is so obviously full of enthusiasm and is a catalyst for change. He has already changed and modernised the Conservative Party and, like Obama in America, I believe he has the capacity to change this country and be our next Prime Minister."

Andrew Mackay first entered Parliament aged 27 at the Stechford by-election in 1977 when Roy Jenkins vacated the seat, but was defeated in 1979 - only to return in 1983 for the safe Tory area of Berkshire he now represents. As such, he has considerable experience of parliamentary life, with his time as Deputy Chief Whip in John Major's Government being especially valuable.

It is widely thought that he hankers after the job of Chief Whip in a Cameron Government, although I imagine the current Chief, Patrick McLoughlin - widely respected as a firm but fair holder of the post - would probably dissent from that suggestion.

Update: In this pre-reshuffle post, Tim cites a fascinating piece by Fraser Nelson in the Spectator, which expands on the role of Mackay as a "Rasputin figure". 

Jonathan Isaby

Give us your questions for Theresa May

Theresa May, who was appointed shadow secretary of state for work and pensions last week, has agreed to answer questions from ConservativeHome readers. Leave your questions below or email them to us and we'll put a broad selection of them to Theresa and then publish her responses.

Her brief covers a wide range of policy areas, with the DWP taking responsibility for, among other things, welfare reform and the whole range of unemployment and incapacity benefits, pensions reform, the labour market, employment programmes such as the New Deal, disability legislation, the Equality and Human Rights Commission and the Health and Safety Executive.

The comments thread is now closed and we will publish Theresa May's replies to a selection of your questions very soon.

Who else should be in the shadow cabinet?

This word cloud - created by wordle - represents the more than 800 unprompted answers given in the latest ConHome survey to the question: "Which individual - NOT brought into the shadow cabinet - would you most like to have seen returned to the frontbench?"

You can click on the image to enlarge it.

That hush is the sound of unity

It wouldn't have happened a few years ago.  The airwaves would have been full of unhappy Tories complaining at the return of Ken Clarke.  I certainly had my media opportunities yesterday but, although I opposed Mr Ken Clarke's return, David Cameron deserves loyalty now a decision has been made.  I certainly hope Ken succeeds in helping the party achieve a still stronger economic message.  The only voice raised against Ken Clarke's return has been that of former Tory MP Barry Legg.  He has written for The Guardian's Comment is free this morning and, to be fair, issues some pertinent cautions.

Why aren't the airwaves full?  Why have the 41% of Conservatives opposed to Clarke's return shrunk to 22% overnight?  Why are those 22% so quiet?  Rachel Sylvester suggests in The Times that the Conservative Party has finally put ideological purity behind it and is now focused on winning power.  It's also true that David Cameron was careful to reassure rank-and-file Tories with the elevation of Eurosceptic Mark Francois.  Affirming William Hague's Deputy status and big promotions for grassroots favourites Eric Pickles and Chris Grayling were other signs that the confrontational side to David Cameron's leadership - shown during the grammar schools row - is over.  These very grim times also focus minds.  Two recent opinion polls, from YouGov and Ipsos MORI, suggest that the second Brown bounce is well and truly over.  Tory prospects for an extended period in government haven't been so good for a generation.  They are as good as the inheritance will be awful.

Tim Montgomerie

Graphic created by 'Obamicon me'. Obamify yourself here!

Grassroots give a big thumbs up to the reshuffle

1,087 members voted in this survey which we put into the field at 3.30pm yesterday afternoon.

There's a big welcome for David Cameron's three biggest appointments.

The net approval for Ken Clarke's appointment is particularly interesting.  When we asked in December if members wanted Ken back we got a fairly narrow 50% to 41% 'yes vote'.  That has widened markedly now with just 22% disappointed at the decision now that it has been made.

Members are evenly divided however on the new Shadow Business Secretary's impact on the party's European policies.  37% fear that he will "block any moves towards more Euroscepticism" and 39% think he won't.

Other survey findings are very positive:

• 76% agree that "the shadow cabinet is now punchier, readier for battle";
• 75% agree that "the economic policy team is much strengthened";
• 71% agree that "Grayling, Pickles and Clarke protect the party leadership from Labour's 'Tory Toffs' attack";
• Only 26% agree that "the reshuffle shifts the party somewhat towards the Left".

Tory members are also relaxed about the Obama effect.  On a forced choice question:

• 62% agreed that "President Obama will have no big effect on British politics";
• 24% agreed that "President Obama's representation of change will help Cameron politically";
• Only 14% agreed that "President Obama's fiscal stimulus package will help Brown politically".

The shadow cabinet has more punch but less reform

Ten observations on today's shadow cabinet reshuffle:

1. The economic team has been considerably strengthened: ...but there must be a danger that Clarke will eclipse George Osborne (certainly in terms of media bids). As Mike Smithson blogs: "The Tories can now say that the Chancellor who left Britain in such good shape can help put things back together again."
2. The party has a punchier communications team: Grayling replacing Grieve, Pickles replacing Spelman, Francois displacing Lidington all adds up to an earthier feel. Will Woodward is calling it Andy Coulson's reshuffle; "a definite shift to the tougher talking, plain-speaking elements in the Tory parliamentary party". Benedict Brogan is calling it "pub ready". Francois is a key ally of George Osborne and will strengthen the Shadow Chancellor's hand but can he now deliver EPP exit?  It was clearly prescient of Jonathan to make him his "One to Watch" in 2009 as he is the only middle-ranking spokesman to have been promoted to the top table. Promoting the eurosceptic Europe spokesman to the shadow cabinet will also act as a foil to those concerned about the European views held by Ken Clarke.
   
3. We must worry about a shift away from reform: (1) Despite the reassurances, Ken Clarke will be a roadblock against any further Euroscepticism from David Cameron. (2) Serious reform of the ECHR is also unlikely now that Grieve has ousted Herbert at Justice.  (3) Theresa May is not known as a welfare reformer but time will tell. James Forsyth has the same concern. We'll write more tomorrow about what this reshuffle means for the Tory Right.
4. The musical chairs were well executed: If reshuffle speculation had been allowed to run out of control since Christmas the actual reshuffle was executed quickly and effectively. Last night's briefing of the Clarke move worked particularly smoothly. The reshuffle of junior ranks should be complete later today.
5. The appointment of Eric Pickles: His promotion to the party chairmanship was what ConHome readers asked for last week and his record as a campaigner bodes well for the run-up to the general election. Also good to have another straight-talking Northerner in one of the senior posts.
6. Surprise of the reshuffle: Jeremy Hunt didn't get CCHQ.
7. Better Off Outers? Dan Hannan makes a good point; if Clarke can serve on frontbench whilst supporting Lisbon it's time to allow Better Off Out supporters to serve on the frontbench too.
8. Advice for Peter Ainsworth: Take your deep belief in green issues and form a think-tank of the kind IDS has used to argue for a socially just Conservative Party. The party has no green think tank and you could make it happen.
9. The accuracy of Michael Howard's political antennae: The first three members of the 2001 intake he promoted to his shadow cabinet were Cameron, Osborne and Grayling, who now hold the biggest three jobs in the Shadow Cabinet.
10. A boost for the pro-hunting lobby: Nick Herbert played a key role in the founding of the Countryside Movement - now the Countryside Alliance - so he seems a good pick for rural affairs.His appointment would suggest that David Cameron is serious about appealing to the hunting lobby.

Confirmation of all changes to the Conservative frontbench

CCHQ has now confirmed all the changes that have been made to the frontbench.

New to the Shadow Cabinet:

The Rt Hon Kenneth Clarke QC MP
Shadow Secretary of State for Business, Enterprise and Regulatory Reform (replacing Alan Duncan)

Mark Francois MP
Shadow Minister for Europe (same job, but now with shadow cabinet status)

New Shadow Cabinet responsibilities:

Alan Duncan MP
Shadow Leader of the House of Commons (replacing Theresa May)

Chris Grayling MP
Shadow Home Secretary (replacing Dominic Grieve)

The Rt Hon Dominic Grieve QC MP
Shadow Secretary of State for Justice (replacing Nick Herbert)

Nick Herbert MP
Shadow Secretary of State for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (replacing Peter Ainsworth, who departs the front bench)

The Rt Hon Theresa May MP
Shadow Secretary of State for Work and Pensions and Shadow Minister for Women (replacing Chris Grayling)

Eric Pickles MP
Chairman of the Conservative Party (replacing Caroline Spelman)

Caroline Spelman MP
Shadow Secretary of State for Communities and Local Government (replacing Eric Pickles)

NB With Mark Francois promoted to shadow cabinet, foreign affairs team member David Lidington will no longer attend shadow cabinet meetings, but he will remain in place as an extremely well-regarded member of William Hague's team.

Other changes to front bench appointments:

Richard Benyon MP (previously a whip)
Shadow Minister for Environment, Food & Rural Affairs

Crispin Blunt MP (previously a whip)
Shadow Security Minister (within Shadow Home Affairs Team)

David Evennett MP (previously a whip)
Shadow Minister for Innovation, Universities and Skills

Justine Greening MP (previously Shadow Treasury Minister)
Shadow Minister for Communities & Local Government

Greg Hands MP (promoted from the backbenches)
Shadow Treasury Minister

John Penrose MP (promoted from the backbenches)
Shadow Minister for Business, Enterprise & Regulatory Reform

Bill Wiggin MP (previously Shadow Minister for Environment, Food & Rural Affairs)
Whip

Rob Wilson MP (previously Shadow Minister for Innovation, Universities and Skills)
Whip

NB Scouring the full lst of the frontbench just issued by CCHQ, it would seem the only person to be leaving the lower ranks to return to the back benches is Jacqui Lait, who was previously a spokesman on the Communities, and Local Government team. Jacqui resigned of her own volition after ten years on the front bench to create an opportunity a younger colleague (Justine Greening).

Reshuffle Live blog Part II

1530: Ken Clarke takes his place on the frontbench alongside David Cameron and George Osborne in the chamber this afternoon:

1515: Paul Waugh at the Evening Standard lists some names moving in the junior ranks:

• Justine Greening gets promotion to number 2 slot at Communities and Local Govt;
• Richard Benyon gets Shadow Defra,
• Crispin Blunt gets shadow security,
• David Evennett gets Shadow DIUS,
• Greg Hands joins the Treasury team
• John Penrose gets shadow business beat
• Bill Wiggin and Rob Wilson join the whips.

1445: Just noticed that in a post this morning Andrew Porter reported that Edward Garnier will be shadow attorney general - which turned out not to be the case. It will remain Dominic Grieve.

1330: A smooth reshuffle wasn't quite perfect (from conservatives.com):

1250: Iain Dale reports that Michael Fallon turned down the chance to serve on the Treasury team in favour of remaining on the treasury select committee.

1225: With Mark Francois promoted to shadow cabinet, we have confirmation that his fellow foreign affairs team member David Lidington will no longer attend shadow cabinet meetings, but he will remain in place as an extremely well-regarded member of William Hague's team.

1130: Confirmation of all Shadow Cabinet changes from CCHQ on this ToryDiary thread

1130: Sky report that among the reshuffling, shadow Europe minister Mark Francois is being promoted to the shadow cabinet.

1127: CCHQ releases statements from David Cameron and Ken Clarke on Clarke's return to the frontbench. Read them on the reaction to Clarke's appointment thread.

1124: Nick Herbert confirmed as shadow Defra secretary.

1118: Theresa May confirmed as new shadow work and pensions secretary.

1114: BBC - Alan Duncan is shadow leader of the Commons.

1112: Unconfirmed rumours of Chris Grayling taking Home Affairs, Dominic Grieve moving to Justice and Nick Herbert to Defra

Material from earlier in the morning is on this live blog

• Justine Greening gets promotion to number 2 slot at Communities and Local Govt;
• Richard Benyon gets Shadow Defra,
• Crispin Blunt gets shadow security,
• David Evennett gets Shadow DIUS,
• Greg Hands joins the Treasury team
• John Penrose gets shadow business beat
• Bill Wiggin and Rob Wilson join the whips.

Eric Pickles is new Party Chairman

Eric Pickles is being appointed Conservative Party chairman in today's reshuffle, news which we greet warmly.

We presume readers will too, since he was your choice for the job in our survey last week.

Caroline Spelman will remain in the shadow cabinet, though in which post we do not yet know.

The Tory reshuffle (live blog)

1112: Live blog continues here

1107: Theresa Villiers remains shadow transport secretary.

1103: Latest Speculation from James Forsyth at Coffee House: Spelman and Duncan to move within Shadow Cabinet. "Other rumours doing the rounds at the moment are that Dominic Grieve will be moved to Justice and Nick Herbert to a frontline job, either Work and Pensions or DCLG. There's also speculation that Andrew Mitchell will move back to domestic portfolio".

1057: Confirmation reaches us that Peter AInsworth has been sacked.

1045: CONHOME EXCLUSIVE: ERIC PICKLES IS NEW PARTY CHAIRMAN

1035: Iain Dale reports rumours of a promotion for Justine Greening and that Peter AInsworth looks set to be sacked, having cancelled his engagements.

0945: Ken Clarke statement: "It is going to be a historically important election, and I don't want to sit on the sidelines - I want to be out on the pitch fighting for the change Britain needs. I have thought carefully about returning to frontline politics. I am doing so because this country faces a very serious situation - the gravest economic crisis I have known in my lifetime."

0945: Doorstepping Sky video of David Cameron's claim that Tories now have best economic team in Britain:

0937: The Sun is speculating that Chris Grayling may replace Dominic Grieve.  Just speculation mind you.

News of moves in the reshuffle will appear here as they emerge...

Tim Montgomerie will also be Twittering news:

First reactions to the return of Ken Clarke

Most reactions to Ken Clarke's return on last night's thread were positive.  The same is true of reactions from bloggers and commentators.  Arranged below are key arguments.

The economic times are so serious that David Cameron is correct to bring such a successful former Chancellor back to the frontbench: "The world has changed, and if in response to the resulting tumult Barack Obama can do a deal with Mrs Clinton and Gordon Brown can rediscover his friendship with Peter Mandelson, then surely the Tories should be able to bury the hatchet (in their opponents rather than each other) in order to turf out Labour?" - Iain Martin

His time as Chancellor remains respected (even to The Independent): "His tenure at the Treasury remains highly regarded – something that cannot be said of all former Chancellors."

 Ken Clarke can make complex economic issues understandable: "He may also be the Tories' Vince Cable. What Cable does is talk about economics in clear English - not using Brown's jargons, nor the soundbites Osborne often uses. To Clarke, economics is easy - and, like Cable, he makes it sound easy. It has been a joy listening to him on the economy recently." - Fraser Nelson

Clarke's pro-European views may create tensions: "Mr Clarke's pro European views - in particular, his support for Britain scrapping the pound and joining the Euro - have alienated him from the mainstream of his party. The issue of Europe is still a live one since some now argue that the current economic crisis demonstrates the case for the Euro. Also, the Tories are opposed to the Lisbon EU Treaty which Clarke has backed and they are committed to holding a referendum on it which could lead to a Cameron-led government Britain re-negotiating Britain's relationship with the EU." - Nick Robinson

Ken's European views will be submerged within his acceptance of shadow cabinet responsibility: "To those Tories who recoil in horror at the return of Ken Clarke, I'd say this. Few of us agree with his views on Europe, but they should not be allowed to colour the fact that he is a big hitter and is very popular with people who are either soft Tories or not Tories at all. He will have to abide by the same collective responsibility as the Shadow Cabinet and will know that." - Iain Dale

The Conservatives have invited a very loose cannon into their highest ranks: "Mr Clarke has always said precisely what he thought on matters relating to the EU, having appeared on platforms with his political opponents to the detriment of the Conservative Party and to the embarrassment of the Leader. Indeed, he even favours a coalition with the europhile Liberal Democrats, and has publicly said so. He is a loose cannon, and regularly defies the Party whip with impunity: indeed, his voting record identifies him as a rebel." - Cranmer

Clarke's return is a boost to those who wish to see the Tories form a deal with the Liberal Democrats: "Let's not forget that Clarke sees coalition with the Lib Dems as a good thing. As he told me three years ago "I'm glad to say the fates could condemn the Conservatives and the Liberals to form a coalition." - Fraser Nelson

And finally... a Conservative MP emailed me this cartoon from 1993.  No further comment necessary:

Tim Montgomerie

Ken Clarke returns... as Shadow Business Secretary

Tory sources have confirmed that Ken Clarke is returning to the Tory frontbench.

As we predicted last week, the Tory reshuffle has been brought forward and other announcements will be made tomorrow, probably all finalised by lunchtime. 

Mr Clarke will be Shadow Business Secretary.  He will replace Alan Duncan who is being offered a different "senior role".

CCHQ is briefing that it was in December that George Osborne first suggested a frontbench role for the former Chancellor and thrice-defeated leadership candidate.  The Telegraph's Andy Porter got there first in terms of media speculation.  That was when the Conservatives were faltering in the polls and Mr Clarke's return was seen as a quick route back to economic credibility.

Over lunch yesterday (Saturday) George Osborne, David Cameron and Ken Clarke met to agree terms.  That it was Osborne rather than Hague at the meeting confirms that it is the Shadow Chancellor who is the real Deputy Leader.

Mr Clarke has accepted that the Tory position on Lisbon, the EPP and the Euro is settled.  He won't attempt to change party policy but neither will he change his views.  His focus, says the spin, will be 100% on his new portfolio and the interests of British business.

David Cameron has gambled that any internal unhappiness at Mr Clarke's return will be smothered by the renewed Conservative strength in the opinion polls - now 13% ahead according to YouGov.  Mr Clarke brings immediate media firepower to the Tory frontbench.  Any announcement from his office will attract media attention but you can expect lots of 'Clarke overshadows Osborne' stories to come from mischievous sections of the press.

ConservativeHome opposed Mr Clarke's return but a plurality of grassroots members (50% to 41%) supported a comeback.

Tim Montgomerie

Hague repeats Cameron's messages on the reshuffle

In advance of an imminent shadow cabinet reshuffle, widely expected to take place this week - maybe even tomorrow - William Hague has taken to the airwaves to repeat several of the messages that David Cameron has put out during the last week, namely:

• Hague is David Cameron's de facto deputy - and has been for three years
• Ken Clarke is effectively "already back"

Here's what Mr Hague said on Sky News this morning (quotes taken from PoliticsHome.com):

"I have been doing the deputy role for three years, what David Cameron was talking about was making that more public. I have never known a more cohesive team, with David Cameron, George Osborne and I working together, and I have never seen a more mutually supportive team.It's the greatest cohesion and working together in the Conservative party that I have seen for 20 years... I think, in spirit, Ken Clarke is already back. Everybody has piled in to help."

Tim wrote earlier in the week that speculation about this reshuffle had got out of control - and he was absolutely right. As is always the case with reshuffle specualtion, every story is generally a collation of the previous few reports along with whatever new information-cum-rumour has been doing the rounds. In this reshuffle cycle, most of the names being written about have all been promoted/demoted/sacked/moved sideways several times over.

I hope that David Cameron gets on with it as soon as possible, put everyone out of their misery and we can look forward to following the fortunes of the rejuvenated team.

Jonathan Isaby

Eric Pickles wins grassroots' confidence to be next Party Chairman

1,495 party members took part in our online survey on Wednesday and yesterday and Eric Pickles won the lion's share of support when we asked Who should be the next Party Chairman?  We offered a choice between the four most talked-about candidates for the job.

The result does not mean that, for example, Eric is three times more popular than Chris Grayling.  Last week we found that Pickles and Grayling were level-pegging in terms of overall satisfaction.  What this survey suggests is that 57% of members believes that Eric Pickles has the best mix of skills and personality to become a key face of the Conservative Party - particularly for the next General Election campaign.

I still expect Mrs Spelman to be exonerated from the nannygate inquiry.  I hope she'll stay in the shadow cabinet but I agree with members that Eric Pickles is the best candidate to be Party Chairman.  Jeremy Hunt is one of my three 'big beasts of the future'.  The speculation is that he's Cameron's choice to the next Chairman.  We'll soon know.

Tim Montgomerie

Tory reshuffle likely "within days"

With reshuffle speculation getting out of control it is now expected that the much-anticipated Tory reshuffle will happen sooner rather than later, "within days" according to one senior aide to the Tory leadership.

The biggest nonsense award goes to those writing that the Deputy status for William Hague is a snub to George Osborne.  William Hague is one of the party's biggest beasts and it's good news that he's taking a larger political role as he winds down his outside interests.  But noone should think that George Osborne isn't going to continue to be the second biggest force in the parliamentary Conservative Party.  Titles aren't everything.  Prescott was Tony Blair's Deputy in name but was never as powerful as Gordon Brown.  And that's not just because he occupies the biggest job in the shadow cabinet (after leader), it's because he remains very close to David Cameron and makes many of Project Cameron's biggest political judgments. 

One new suggestion is that Jeremy Hunt and Caroline Spelman might 'job swap'. If Caroline Spelman doesn't then receive a clean enough bill of health from the 'nannygate' inquiry she'll step aside from Culture, Media and Sport and be replaced by Ed Vaizey from within that team, so requiring no second big reshuffle. For the record - and a fair number of people are suggesting otherwise in threads - I believe in the integrity of Mrs Spelman and hope and expect her to be exonerated.  See ConHome's 7th June 2008 post.  There is a separate issue of whether she could continue as Chairman.  You can register your opinion on that question in this poll (which closes at 3pm today).

Of all the pieces written on the reshuffle this piece by Fraser Nelson is the best.  He writes about one of the most under-written influences on David Cameron: Andrew MacKay MP.  On Mr Mackay's own website we learn this: "Andrew is Senior Political and Parliamentary Advisor to David Cameron. Andrew works out of the Leader's Office, attending all key meetings, including the Shadow Cabinet.  At his appointment David said that he wanted someone of Andrew's experience to be by his side overseeing relationships with the Parliamentary party and beyond."  Here is the key extract of Fraser's article:

"Those in Norman Shaw South [Cameron's Nest] may laugh at the more fevered reshuffle speculation in the press, much of which strikes them as demonstrable nonsense. ‘But the troops don’t think it’s nonsense,’ explains one frontbencher. ‘And that’s the problem’. Email is no substitute for direct contact. The geographic dislocation of the Tory office layout has broken lines of communication. All of this feeds paranoia and amplifies the Chinese whispers echoing around Parliament. Many of these whispers can be traced to remarks that Andrew Mackay was making too loudly over dinner one evening recently — to the effect that Mr Cameron had decided to sack a senior frontbencher the day after the election. You might imagine these remarks to be of little consequence — Mr Mackay being only a former whip with almost no public profile. But those aware of his real significance in the party today would have craned their necks to listen, for he occupies an increasingly important and little-documented role. In the words of one shadow Cabinet member, he has become ‘something of a Rasputin figure’. Officially, he is ‘political and parliamentary adviser to the leader of the opposition’ — an intriguing title which gives him a passport to Mr Cameron’s morning meetings. But his real role is much broader. ‘Some time ago, David said to him: “I want you to be my Willie”,’ one MP tells me — referring, of course, to the service the late Lord Whitelaw supplied to Baroness Thatcher. ‘That’s Mackay’s skill: he can sniff the air, tell which tribes are forming, who’s up to mischief. He reports back to Cameron.’ Hence his potential relevance as a reshuffle rune-reader. Mr Mackay can advise as to which groupings need to be kept sweet, and which frontbenchers can be safely disposed of. His role does not require him to be popular, and his friends say he is happy in the shadows and ‘likes his holidays too much to join the front bench’. While his influence is rather mysterious, it is not seen as malign. As the leader’s office operates in a separate orbit from Parliament, Mr Cameron needs the best intelligence he can get."

Andrew MacKay is already a powerful figure within the Conservative Party. He'll be a major power in a Tory government, too.

Tim Montgomerie

Reshuffle speculation is getting out of control

The Times' Francis Elliott is reporting tonight that David Cameron will "gamble" and will appoint Ken Clarke to the shadow cabinet.  In complete contrast, a senior frontbencher is told that Ken's flip-flop on cutting VAT means that he won't return to the frontbench.

Francis Elliott also notes briefing against the rest of the shadow cabinet; "The Tory leader believes that the former Chancellor is the only senior Conservative, other than he and George Osborne, who can command the media spotlight."  Has anyone told William Hague?!

Last week's briefings against Alan Duncan are said to be retaliation for his alleged briefing against Ken Clarke.

I was told today that there were five members of the shadow cabinet who would keep their jobs for now but would never get into Cabinet.

What is true is that this reshuffle speculation is raising the stakes for David Cameron.  Iain Martin:

"The danger for the Tory leadership is that this reshuffle speculation is now running all over the place and that if very little happens, and less recognisable members of the shadow cabinet who are not even household names in their own household are merely swapped for others in a half hearted fashion, the cry will go up of "damp squib"."

Thursday sees another big Tory policy launch - the first of a series of agenda-setting Green Papers.  It's vital that these are not overshadowed.  If the reshuffle speculation continues to get out of hand - and it's undermining the morale of some frontbenchers who already feel excluded from the small circle around David Cameron - then the reshuffle should be brought forward.

Tim Montgomerie

More voices protest at frontbench job for Ken Clarke

Fraser Nelson joins the chorus of concern at the prospect of Ken Clarke joining the shadow cabinet.  This is what he writes in the News of the World:

"A word of advice to David Cameron: don’t get into bed with the seductive Ken Clarke. After years helping sell fags to the Vietnamese, the former Chancellor want a job in politics again. He’s amiable (at least on-camera) and speaks well about economics. But his ego is huge.  He was first to propose the disastrous VAT cut. Then changed his mind. He has ZERO self-discipline. I hear that Ken is giving Cam the come-on. Sure, he’s a big beast. But one best left out in the yard."

The Mail on Sunday reports that big Tory donor Stuart Wheeler sees Mr Clarke as potentially "disruptive".  The Observer notes Lord Tebbit's concerns at the former Chancellor's laziness.  Who can forget his failure to read the Maastricht Treaty?  "I think it would be a nightmare," says Norman Tebbit, "as I don't think he would be able to stick to the party line. It would imply that we had people at the top of the party who were intent on taking us into the euro at any cost."

Despite a 50% to 41% vote of confidence from party members, Jonathan Isaby and I raised our worries about Ken Clarke earlier this week.  Although his pro-European views are a real problem - particularly in advance of this year's European elections - the concerns are much wider.  Philip Cowley identified him as the most rebellious Tory MP.  That rebelliousness occasionally erupts into the open.  During David Cameron's leadership he has strongly criticised party policy on the EPP and a new British Bill of Rights.  He is also known to oppose recognising marriage in the tax system and has concerns about Iain Duncan Smith's social justice agenda.  He is also cautious about public spending control and his instincts are to increase taxes.  As Fraser Nelson pointed out, he supported a VAT cut before changing his mind.  That sort of u-turn would have been much more serious if Mr Clarke was on the frontbench.

Mr Clarke is a huge talent.  The best way forward might be to include him on a high-powered committee of economic advisers.  With Lords Lawson, Lamont and Howe he could advise the current Tory leadership on economic policy.  The committee could also include Howard Flight, Peter Lilley, John Redwood, Lord Forsyth and other big economic brains although it mustn't grow too big and become unwieldy.

Tim Montgomerie

Damian Green tipped for the shadow cabinet

The Sunday Telegraph's Melissa Kite has a bad track record when it comes to Tory reshuffles but her latest speculation has a ring of truth about it.  Quoting an unnamed "senior Tory source" she says that Shadow Immigration Minister Damian Green is "an absolute cert for promotion."  I hope so.  He has done a good job with the immigration portfolio. He's loyal. He works very hard. Is good on TV.  And is liked by his colleagues.

Tim Montgomerie

Alan Duncan remains popular with grassroots despite 'friendly fire' from CCHQ

Alan Duncan is receiving quite a bit of friendly fire at the moment.  An unnamed Tory MP tells today's Telegraph: "Just imagine the shadow business secretary is away skiing when we are going across the country to talk to people hurt by recession. And that, for a would be Business Secretary, at a time of massive economic and business upheaval. Contrast that with Peter Mandelson who has been everywhere since his return."  But most of the briefing appears to be coming from within CCHQ.  I got one such unauthorised briefing myself yesterday.  Yesterday's Sun had an anti-Duncan quote from a "senior party official".  All very unhelpful and purportedly rooted in the extent of Mr Duncan's outside interests.

We'll release the full shadow cabinet satisfaction league table tomorrow but Alan Duncan's rating rose again in December.  He is the sixth most popular member of David Cameron's shadow cabinet - behind (alphabetically) Michael Gove, Chris Grayling, Dominic Grieve, William Hague and Eric Pickles.

4.45pm update:

Mr Duncan has this afternoon issued a statement regarding the Nissan job losses:

“We regret these losses. The motor industry has been hit hard by a collapse in demand. There is no complete escape from Gordon Brown’s recession.
 
"Gordon Brown's 100,000 new jobs claim is already falling apart as an exercise in spin. He has previously said that his plan would help companies like Nissan to save jobs. That now appears to be little more than cynical spin. While he gets headlines, people are getting laid off.
 
“Our national loan guarantee scheme would help sectors like this get the credit support they so desperately need. Every day the Government dithers and does not introduce our policy, more jobs are lost.”

Tim Montgomerie

Six hopes for a Conservative reshuffle

I bumped into four MPs in Westminster yesterday.  Three of them talked about the Tory reshuffle and one predicted it might come as early as next week.  I had understood that it would not take place until Caroline Spelman's inquiry had been completed.  Whatever the truth on timing I thought I'd record my hopes now.

No return for Ken Clarke. Since last month my opinion on this has hardened as I was reminded of the ways in which Ken Clarke held the Major government to ransom. Once Mr Clarke is at the top table he'll be an opponent of sensible and necessary action on Europe and welfare in particular.  I fear that the way this story has been allowed to keep running means that the leadership does intend to bring him back.  I think the party gets the best of him at present - as a big beast on the backbenches he has no significant influence on party policy but is an active and effective media player.

A new Party Chairman.  Without suggesting that Caroline Spelman should leave the shadow cabinet I hope there'll be a new Chairman in the run up to the General Election.  The two leading candidates are Jeremy Hunt and Eric Pickles.  The newly engaged Hunt is now thought to be favourite (and moving him would make it simple for Ed Vaizey to move up into the top Culture, Media & Sport slot).  Eric Pickles remains my choice.  He'd be a brilliant campaigner, a tonic for the grassroots and the perfect response to the Labour charge that the Tories are Toffs.  Chris Grayling remains an outside bet although I understand he wants to stay at Work & Pensions.  If you are a big gambler put your money on Sayeeda Warsi.

Keep Theresa Villiers.  I made this case on 27th December.

Restore one of the 'dissidents'.  A few people have fallen out with the leadership over the last three years - notably Graham Brady, Mark Field and Patrick Mercer.  One of them should be restored to the frontbench to show that there is forgiveness from the leadership.  Graham Brady would probably be the most potent symbol of healing given that it was the lowest period of the Cameron leadership - grammarsgate - that saw him resign as Shadow Europe Minister.

Jobs for Michael Fallon, Greg Hands and Stephen Crabb.  Few people have more authority on economic affairs than Michael Fallon.  If, as is rumoured, Alan Duncan is for the chop I'd like to see last year's ConHome Parliamentarian of the Year become our business spokesman.  The backbencher most deserving of promotion is Greg Hands.  Incredibly industrious he more than deserves a place on the frontbench.  I'd also promote one of our three Welsh MPs, Stephan Crabb.  His communication skills are top notch.

Protect The Indispensables.  My Indispensables include Nick Gibb, John Hayes, Tim Loughton, Paul Goodman and Jim Paice.  They may not get much attention but they are becoming/ have become masters of their briefs.  In government their knowledge could be the difference between departments ticking along and really prospering. They have developed great relations with the key players in their sectors.  They should be loved by the leadership for their indispensability and told as much.

Tim Montgomerie

The Tory operation makes a strong start to 2009

The Conservatives can be pleased with their media impact since Parliament recessed for Christmas:

The party dominated the holiday period: The frontbench scored a number of front page splashes including Eric Pickles on council tax (Daily Telegraph); George Osborne on tax relief (Sunday Times), Michael Gove on teacher absence (Daily Mail), and James Brokenshire on knife crime (The Sun).  The Liberal Democrats once saw holiday periods as an opportunity to fill the gap left by the main parties.  One of the successes of Andy Coulson's CCHQ operation is that the LibDems are now denied easy hits.  The return of Oliver Dowden to the party's political section is part of the explanation for increasingly improved operation.

Yesterday's announcement on tax relief for savers: After a feisty performance by David Cameron on the Today programme the tax reliefs announcement won broadcast attention throughout the day.  I  missed the evening TV news bulletins but the Conservatives actually led Radio 4's Midnight News - relegating Gaza to the number two spot.  The Mail, Sun, Telegraph and Express all give thumbs up coverage this morning.

And today shadow cabinet members are holding meetings across Britain to discuss the party's plans for fighting unemployment: David Cameron will be in Salford, Michael Gove in Plymouth, Plymouth, Jeremy Hunt in Bristol, Caroline Spelman in Southampton, Theresa May in Maidstone, Philip Hammond in London, Andrew Lansley in Ipswich, Andrew Mitchell in Nottingham, Sayeeda Warsi in Birmingham Birmingham, George Osborne in Cardiff, Eric Pickles in Leeds, William Hague in Tynemouth, and Chris Grayling in Edinburgh.  When I worked at Conservative Central Office I remember a presentation when we were told that regional media was more trusted than national media, broadcast media was more impactful than print media and most trusted of all was third party media like the RSPB magazine.  I don't know where the internet fits on the scale but today's well-planned operation involving local journalists, business leaders and voluntary organisations will have a significant impact even if not noticed by the Westminster lobby.

Tim Montgomerie

Frontbencher of 2008

The second of our picks of the year.  Earlier today we each chose our Backbencher of 2008.

Jonathan Isaby's pick: My choice for frontbencher of the year will come as no surprise to anyone who read this piece - in which I wrote about the man in question a little over a month ago. As Shadow Secretary of State for Northern Ireland, Owen Paterson would not expect to enjoy the highest of media profiles, but he deserves this accolade in recognition of all the work he has put in this year towards creating a new political force in Northern Ireland through an alliance between the Conservative Party and the Ulster Unionists. He quietly beavered away on the project for most of the year, spending at least one day a week in the province, and the deal was finally sealed in mid-November. Owen should rightly feel proud of this achievement.

Tim Montgomerie's pick: Hardworking. Friendly. A master of his brief. Always in the media. The opposite of the Tory stereotype. The public face of a great team. I am, of course, talking about Eric Pickles MP.  After his role in the Crewe and Nantwich by-election campaign - following a successful masterminding of our local government advances - Eric shot to near the top of our regular shadow cabinet league table of members' satisfaction.  These memorable images captured his 'maestro' role on local elections night 2008.  Some jealous Cameroons briefed against him but he has deservedly retained the affection of colleagues and members.  My hope is that he'll become Party Chairman in 2009.

Who is your Frontbencher of the Year?

Grassroots want the 'big beasts' in the shadow cabinet

According to the Daily Mail "senior Tory sources" have refused to deny that Ken Clarke is about to return to the shadow cabinet; possibly opposite Peter Mandelson.  An article in yesterday's Sunday Telegraph got the speculation going again.  Most Tory members would be glad to see the former Chancellor and three-times-rejected leadership candidate back on the frontbench.  But in our survey of 1,816 party members there was even more support for David Davis returning - and support for George Osborne continuing as Shadow Chancellor:

Hague threatened to quit if outside interests were banned

Further to Jonathan's post earlier today, the Daily Mail is reporting that "William Hague threatened to lead a Shadow Cabinet walk-out if David Cameron forced his frontbench to give up high-earning second jobs."  Two other resignations were also possible, reports the Mail's Benedict Brogan.

In many ways Mr Hague is proof that it is possible to combine outside interests and a high profile portfolio.  Although he actively pursues outside interests - earning an additional £230,000 last year - he regularly tops the satisfaction league when ConservativeHome asks party members to judge shadow cabinet performance.  His net satisfaction rating was +85% in the most recent survey.

His critics would, however, point to an under-developed Conservative foreign policy and his reported opposition to becoming Shadow Chancellor should a vacancy arise.  Steve Hilton, a key adviser to Mr Cameron, has been critical of Mr Hague's reluctance to undertake more media for the party.

Alan Duncan, Shadow Business Secretary, is most vulnerable in the next reshuffle.  His outside interests have been a growing concern to Team Cameron although it is reported that he is cutting back on them.

Tim Montgomerie