ConservativeHome's ToryDiary

"It's Eeyore versus Tigger"

Sir John Major's expectation of a Brown versus Cameron contest.

Frank Field steps up attack on Brown

Labour MP Frank Field has stepped up his attack on Gordon Brown:

"Allowing Gordon Brown into No 10 would be like letting Mrs Rochester out of the attic.  He has no empathy with people.  Tony Blair walks and talks like a Prime Minister and Gordon Brown doesn't, that's all there is to it."

The independently-minded Labour MP even speculated that Blair might be persuaded to stay on if a major security incident occured.  "People would not trust Brown to deal with it," he told the Mail on Sunday.

Mr Field - who has encouraged David Miliband to enter the leadership race - fell out with Gordon Brown when he was Minister for Welfare Reform and the Chancellor frustrated his plans at every turn.

There's an interesting story on PoliticalBetting.com speculating that Iraq war rebel John Denham might be the ideal challenger to Mr Brown.   As well as being able to distance himself from the Iraq war, the Chairman of the Home Affairs Select Committee is also a good communicator and represents a southern seat.

Widely quoted in this morning's press (iuncluding The Guardian and Sun) a survey of 100 figures in business, politics, the media and the voluntary sector suggests that Mr Brown is considered to have significantly more integrity than David Cameron by 82% to 59%, understood ordinary life by 49% to 30% and would set the UK in a better direction by 46% over 34%.  The survey seems a bit thin to me.  Just 100 people and who exactly are these so-called opinion-formers?  If three-quarters are from the worlds of politics, media and the voluntary sector you would expect them to be pro-Brown.  The Sun's treatment of the poll is interesting, however.  "BROWN'S BACK IN POLL WIN," its headline screams.  It also choose to emphasise that "a huge three-quarters said Mr Cameron lacked “real substance".”

Is The Guardian gunning for Brown?

As PoliticalBetting.com reports this morning, The Guardian's front page treatment of their ICM poll will be very uncomfortable for Gordon Brown.  The newspaper's leader-writers encourage Labour MPs to "make sure" a challenge happens.

Political Betting's Mike Smithson's overall conclusion is that the poll is good for David Cameron:

"My interpretation of the poll is that this is not so much about Brown but about Cameron. The more the Tory leader is in the news the higher his poll ratings go. Conversely the more that Brown figures on the news agenda the worse it seems to get. The Chancellor certainly did not help himself with last week’s World Cup bid announcement."

The Sun calls the Tory poll lead "massive" and continues: "It is the first time a survey has projected Labour plunging so far in popularity it loses power.  The fall to 29 per cent puts them on a similar level to the dark days under Michael Foot’s shambolic leadership in the early 1980s."

More data from the Sunday Times/ YouGov poll

ConservativeHome posted on the headline figures last night... but there are a few interesting Brown/ Cameron comparisons within the YouGov poll for The Sunday Times (highlighted on ePolitix.com):

• Lightweight: Brown 9% v Cameron 26%
• Out-of-touch: Brown 38% v Cameron 28%
• Thought likely to "say anything to win votes": Brown 24% v Cameron 41%.

Other Brown v Cameron comparisons - such as this one by GfK NOP - have been more encouraging for the Conservative leader.

Brown is the real villain of the prisons crisis

David Cameron launched a strong attack on Labour yesterday for its failure to plan ahead and avoid the current prisons crisis:

"There has been a failure of planning, because despite repeated warnings the Government simply hasn't put in what was necessary in terms of prison places, and political will, because even at the time when it was clear the Government was heading for a major road crash in terms of overcrowding, nothing was done.  The fact that criminals using child pornography are escaping prison is the responsibility of the Government."

John Reid writes for this morning's Sun - defending himself against The Sun's tidal wave of attacks on him of the last 48 hours.  The Sun's Political Editor wrote this yesterday:

"SWAGGERING John Reid was in the dock last night for a string of broken promises that fuelled the prisons crisis.  The big-talking Home Secretary was blasted for vowing to BUILD 8,000 more jail places, CREATE prison ships and GRAB disused army camps to relieve overcrowding.  But as jails are now so full that convicts are being kept in police cells, Reid has been exposed as delivering absolutely NOTHING."

Danny Finkelstein is surely right, however, in arguing that Gordon Brown is the real villain of the affair:

"The Chancellor has refused repeated bids for the money to fund new prison places. This is now revealed to have been a catastrophic error.  Mr Brown is a far more important player in the whole disaster than John Reid. Is he really going to be allowed to keep his head down and avoid criticism for his role?"

The Tory strategy must be to put Brown in the dock for the crisis in law and order.

Labour's Dark Side

David Cameron's New Year's message was published last night, ahead of Blair's later today. He said that 2007 would be the year that Labour's "dark side", in the shape of Brown, would initiate the politics of fear and negative campaigning.

Brown's welfare policies were the main target of the speech, with Cameron framing the ideological battle as being between:

"Labour's state control versus Conservative social responsibility."

In another welcome sign that DC is recognising the importance of strivers since his promise of a grittier second year, he went on to say the Party would side with "working people, not rich and powerful vested interests."  [Related ConservativeHome link from August: It's time for Dave to hug-a-striver].

Civitas' Director, David Green, captures the idea of strivers in his excellent article for today's Sunday Telegraph:

"A free society allows everyone, whether their origins are humble or mighty, to discover their personal best. For anyone with talent, it means the chance to strive for the heights of human accomplishment in any walk of life, from making scientific discoveries that vanquish disease to using words, paint, stone or music to encapsulate truth and beauty."

But a letter to The Observer has a different take on the concept:

"Economic growth not only fails to deliver happiness but it encourages us to be miserable. The capitalist system's survival depends on us all being discontented and permanently striving. If we are unhappy with the way we look, we will buy cosmetics and clothes; if we think our homes aren't up to much, we will continually re-decorate and buy new furniture"

That's materialism, not striving. Brown's failed methods have done untold damage to what Green calls "private action for public good" - to the desire and potential to work hard for society rather than getting whatever you can out of it.

Cameron's team have hit on the Dark Side's biggest weakness.

Deputy Editor

11am postscript: The Sunday Telegraph is reporting that Gordon Brown is planning a humbler, more austere Downing Street.  There'll be fewer political advisers in the Alastair Campbell mould and power will be returned to civil servants.  "You will not see the new prime minister holidaying at the home of a Bee Gee or Sir Cliff Richard," a senior MP told The Sunday Telegraph.  [No ManBoobs then!]   Brownites Ed Balls, Yvette Cooper and Ed Milliband are all tipped to join the Cabinet along with Blairites James Purnell and Liam Byrne.  Armstrong, Falconer, Jowell, Hutton and Prescott will all depart the Cabinet table.

Tories and LibDems prepare for 'honeymoon election'

Both the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats are preparing for the possibility of Gordon Brown calling a snap General Election should he become Labour leader and enjoy a honeymoon boost in the polls (BBC).  On Classic FM yesterday, David Cameron said:

"Tony Blair said at the last election he would serve a full term, so when he goes, no subsequent Labour prime minister can really in their heart claim to have a mandate from the British people.  So it would be right actually to hold a general election as soon as is reasonably possible, because the British people thought they were electing Tony Blair.  He's off. Someone new is coming. They need a mandate."

Ming Campbell, meanwhile, has conducted a mini-reshuffle of his frontbench team and has put Steve Webb in charge of drawing up a manifesto.  Mr Webb wrote a thoughtful essay on family policy for the Orange Book and the LibDems are today promising a Couple's Premium to address the unfairnesses that people on low income can face when they move in together.

Last September a GFK/NOP survey for The Observer revealed that 56% of voters would like to see Gordon Brown go to the country within six months of becoming Labour leader.

The Conservative Party has chosen over 100 candidates for some of its most marginal seats and is probably financially better-equipped for a General Election than Labour.  Or, perhaps, that should be less indebted!

Related link: David Gauke MP - Why Gordon Brown will call a snap election (10 April 2006).

Explosive 'Downing Street memo' suggests that abandoning Brown may be only way of saving Labour from defeat

Christmas has come early for David Cameron...

1. Labour's standing is so low that the party's only hope of recovering may be to abandon Mr Brown and 'move to a new generation' by picking a much younger new leader - though it warns of the perils of being 'disloyal' to the 'greatly respected' Chancellor.
2. The public believes the party is riven by 'internal conflicts' and shows a 'lack of grip and competence on key issues' such as Iraq, the NHS and immigration.
3. People who voted Labour at the last Election 'are moving across' to the Conservatives and Labour is floundering 'on every major issue'.

These are the findings of a memo that the Mail on Sunday claims has originated from Downing Street.  It states that "We have lost control of the big issues and are not delivering."  The memo appears certain to set off a new round of Labour infighting.  It describes Gordon Brown as "unpopular" and blames him for fanning the flames of the loans-for-peerages row.

A Labour source has challenged the veracity of the MoS story.  "This is not a Downing Street memo," the source says: "It was not written by any of the Prime Minister's staff and it most certainly does not reflect his views."

11.15am update on 17/12: Reading between the lines of Labour's denial, Iain Dale concludes that it was written by Philip Gould.  The crucial ingredient missing is the date.  If, as is now being suggested, it was written in September, it puts a different gloss on things.  That was before Project Cameron started to splutter a little and was in the immediate aftermath of the acrimony caused by the Brownites' successful ousting of Blair.

Year2(3): Neutralise Brown

Recommendation 3: According to yesterday's Times 66% of voters do not believe that David Cameron has put a stop to “the Punch and Judy politics of Westminster: the name-calling, backbiting, point-scoring and finger-pointing”.  Part of the reason for this might be the fact that both David Cameron and George Osborne have been guilty of some pretty obvious 'Punchy and Judy' politics (see here and here).  The Tory leadership need to be above personal attack and handwriting analysis.  More attention needs to be focused on the Chancellor's dismal record (economic competitiveness, the tax burden, social justice and waste).  Going forward Gordon Brown is likely to emphasise security, The Union, housing and skills.  Two of David Cameron's most capable frontbenchers hold the housing and skills portfolios - Michael Gove and John Hayes.  Strong policies in both of those areas  will be vital to neutralising Brown's likely appeal.

Could this be true?

I understand that page two of The People suggests that the great tax-riser Gordon Brown is about to announce a 2% cut in the basic rate of income tax.  It may be a rubbish story but would be yet another example of the  fashion for political cross-dressing.

Bad news for Brown and Ming in survey of leadership qualities

A GfK NOP opinion poll for tomorrow's Sunday Edition programme (ITV1) gives David Cameron a 10% lead over Gordon Brown when it comes to preferred Prime Minister.  The Conservative leader enjoys a 29% advantage when it comes to the freshest ideas and a 16% advantage when it comes to being most in touch with modern Britain.  The only area where Brown enjoys the narrowest of leads is on security - where the Chancellor leads by 22% to 21% on who will best protect the UK from a terrorist attack.  GfK NOP do not appear to have asked voters about economic competence (at least not in my embargoed information).  Former Home Secretary Charles Clarke has sought to exploit the security issue by attacking Tory opposition to ID cards (Daily Mail).

The poll also contains bad news for Ming Campbell.  Just 5% identify him as their preferred choice for Prime Minister.  24% told GfK NOP that they would prefer Charles Kennedy to return as leader and slightly more (7%) preferred LibDem Home Affairs spokesman Nick Clegg to the embattled Sir Menzies (6%).

YouTube link: Stephan Shakespeare on YouGov cautions against overinterpreting polls that compare Brown and Cameron.

Blair refuses to back Brown as his successor

PMQs returned today.

David Cameron challenged the Prime Minister on the movement of offenders to open prisons to deal with the overcrowding crisis, the idea that foreign prisoners might receive £2,000 to reward them for leaving Britain and the closure of NHS beds.

Today's PMQs will be remembered for Mr Blair's failure to back Gordon Brown as his successor.  The Tory leader reminded the Prime Minister of his words from January  when he appeared to suggest that the Chancellor was his choice for the next Labour leader.  'I'm supporting Brown - are you?', David Cameron joked, but Tony Blair said he wasn't going to answer Mr Cameron's questions on the Labour leadership and preferred to attack the Conservative Party's lack of substance.

Related link: Is PMQs important or irrelevant?  PMQs is the lead topic for tonight's Up Front on 18 Doughty Street Talk TV.

David Cameron says that Brown is weak, tragic and laughable

David Cameron uses an interview for The Sunday Telegraph to launch another strong attack on Gordon Brown.  In January the Tory leader compared the Chancellor to a speak-your-weight machine.  This is what Mr Cameron said for today's interview:

"He's being pushed around by everyone. He's been told he needs to look more modern, so he tells us he likes the Arctic Monkeys. Incredible. He's told he looks too Scottish, so he tells us he likes Gazza's goal against Scotland. Utterly incredible.  He's told you're plotting too much and you look like a schemer, so he says Tony's always going to be my friend. Completely incredible.  If you're pushed around this much before you've even applied for the job what are you going to be like as prime minister.  It just makes me laugh. People tend to think of Gordon Brown as strong but he's just being pushed all over the place.  I think his credibility has been damaged. I've made all sorts of mistakes but I haven't done or said anything that I don't feel 100 per cent comfortable about and I observe what he has been doing and saying and I just find it all totally incredible."

Everything David Cameron says is true, of course, but I can't help feeling that the Tory leader would look more statesmanlike if he allowed the press and a few of the more fierce backbench MPs to go after Gordon Brown.  As ConservativeHome noted at the time, Mr Cameron's non-reaction to Labour's early September madness was exactly right.  This appears at the end of an article in this morning's Sunday Times:

"And what about attacking Labour and Gordon Brown? “We are working on the Napoleonic thinking of ‘never interrupt an enemy while they are making a mistake’,” said one aide."

That tactic of non-interference in Labour's internal affairs is the right one.

Bloomberg: Cherie Blair walks out of Brown speech

George Osborne has reacted to Gordon Brown's speech (the main points of which can be read here):

“Gordon Brown tries to present himself as the face of change but who has been running the government for the last nine years?  He said Britain suffers from a poverty of opportunity, a lack of affordable housing and poor care for elderly people - but he has had nine years to deal with these problems.  This is a terrible record of failure. If the British people want change then they will have to vote for it.”

But it will be Cherie Blair's reported reaction that is set to steal the headlines (Bloomberg):

"Tony Blair's wife, Cherie, walked out of a speech by U.K. Chancellor of the Exchequer Gordon Brown, accusing him of misleading the public about his relationship with the prime minister.  As Brown told the Labour Party conference in Manchester that it had been a "privilege for me to work with and for'' the premier, Mrs. Blair left the conference center saying "well that's a lie.''  Brown has been accused by Blair allies including former Home Secretary Charles Clarke of plotting to undermine his leadership. Blair has been in charge of the Labour Party for 12 years, since Brown stood aside to give him a clear run at the leadership."

Hurricane Gordon is coming

See here.  Those struggling under the burden of Mr Brown's taxes and regulations thought it had already struck... in about May 1997.

David Cameron's non-reaction

It wasn't easy to find Tory newslinks for this morning's homepage.  It's all Labour troubles and the Sunday papers promise more of the same.

Whilst most newspapers are focusing on Brown's role in Blair's humiliation, Dominic Lawson, in yesterday's Independent, gave David Cameron the real credit for destabilising Tony Blair.  Mr Lawson thinks that the newer Labour MPs, in particular - unused to being behind in the polls - have panicked at the leads enjoyed by the new Tory leader.  The leads - at least up until now have actually been pretty modest - but there is some truth in the former Sunday Telegraph Editor's analysis.

More deserving of praise is, I think, the Tory leader's reaction to Labour's return to internal strife.  Or more accurately his disciplined non-reaction.  His statements have amounted to the bare minimum possible comment.  David Cameron has understood that it is not necessary to intervene in Labour's civil war and frontbenchers have been instructed not to crow.  Mr Cameron perhaps remembers Neil Kinnock's disastrous intervention at the time of the 1990 Tory leadership crisis.  Kinnock's decision to call a vote of no confidence in the Conservative Government caused the party to unite and it gave Mrs Thatcher her Commons opportunity to defend her eleven years in power.  It was a famously bravura performance.

PS If you feel you can't resist the need to kick the Labour Party whilst it's down you'll really love this (although you'll need Flash).

Tony Blair confirms he'll be gone within 12 months

A paraphrasing of what Tony Blair has just said...

I apologise for the last week on behalf of the Labour Party - not our finest hour given what is going on in the world.

I would have preferred to do this in my own way but the next Party Conference will be my last as leader - the next TUC conference will be my last, too, and neither of us will mind that.

I am not going to set a precise date now.  The precise timetable has to be left open to me.

The Labour Party must understand that the public must come first.  We cannot treat the public as irrelevant bystanders in who is their Prime Minister.

Interesting that he said nothing about Gordon Brown.  My guess is that the Blairites might now seek to undermine Brown at every turn given the role of Brownites in recent days.

3.30pm: The BBC's verbatim transcript.

7pm update: David Cameron has issued the following statement: "We're in a situation that is frankly shambolic and deeply unsatisfactory. We’ve got a government whose senior members are questioning each others’ judgment and have been at war with each other effectively for a fortnight.  At a time when we’ve got British troops serving overseas; we’ve got terror threats at home; huge issues we need to deal with in our own country. What’s happened today isn’t going to end the uncertainty. I think it will probably only add to the paralysis. And frankly Britain deserves better than this.  What we need is not some ‘deal’ – we need a new Government that can have the vision and leadership for a strong future for this country.”

Oh! What a beautiful morning...

Clippings of headlines are from (clockwise from top)... Telegraph, Times, Sun, FT and Guardian.

Six resignations try to force Blair out

Full story here on BBC Online: "Conservative leader David Cameron said the government was "in meltdown", while Lib Dem leader Sir Menzies Campbell added that Mr Blair "should either resign or state a date". "

The key thing is Brown's backers are saying that 31st May 2007 isn't good enough.

Also see ePolitix.com.

The Sun: Blair will go on 31st May 2007

Or so tomorrow's Sun will say.

Update: Just interviewed on The World Tonight, The Sun's Political Editor George Pascoe Watson says he has "no doubt" that Mr Blair will go at the end of May 2007 - shortly after his tenth anniversary as Prime Minister.  It is earlier than Mr Blair would have liked and he won't serve the 'full third term' that was promised.  Downing Street has released this date to The Sun in order to avoid a complete frenzy at the forthcoming Party Conference.  Will it be enough to stem Labour unrest?  I think so.

Miliband gives Blair twelve more months

This morning's Mirror has been leaked what is describes as a "sensational" memo - outlining Blair's 'farewell arrangements'.  Written by aides including Philip Gould, it reads like a memo from the bunker of a deeply out-of-touch leader.  It speaks of plans for Mr Blair to appear on Blue Peter, Songs of Praise and Chris Evans' radio show.  These lines are the most extraordinary:

"He needs to go with the crowds wanting more. He should be the star who won't even play that last encore. In moving towards the end he must focus on the future."

That'll appear in lots of speeches and TV reports in the weeks to come.

The Mirror leaks coincides with news that previously loyal Labour MPs from the 2001 intake are drafting a letter calling for an exit timetable.  The pressure is certainly beginning to tell.  On this morning's Today programme David Miliband conceded that twelve more months of Blair was probably reasonable.  It is already clear that the frenzy of recent days has forced this concession from the Blairite camp.  But will it be enough?  Has Blair lost too much authority and will he be forced out sooner?

Cameron and Reid make most of August opportunities - but is Brown happiest?

It's been a good week for David Cameron:

• He returned from holiday and responded to the public mood by emphasising his homeland security credentials after focusing on civil libertarianism for too long;
• Built to Last Mk II was then launched - still missing appropriate commitments to lower taxation and controlled immigration - but a big improvement on the motherhood and apple pie of Mk I.
• And, then, there was an emphasis on encouraging home ownership and opposing garden grabbing (a popular policy that owes everything to the backbench industry of Greg Clark MP).

But if David Cameron has enjoyed a good few days it is Home Secretary John Reid who has fared best while Tony Blair has been holidaying.  This week's Economist is particularly positive.  Describing Dr Reid's handling of the terror plot as "highly impressive", The Economist suggests that the Home Secretary was able "to convey both calm and menace with an aura of almost super-human confidence in his own ability."  The weekly magazine believes that he has become one of the most articulate exponents of Blairism - "muscular interventionism abroad and public services reformed by market disciplines at home".  "What's more," The Economist continues, "in his gravelly Lanarkshire tones, he has the ability to express essentially right-wing policies in the language of Kier Hardie (the first leader of the Labour Party, who was born in the constituency he represents). Islamist terrorists, he says, are “fascist individuals” who are determined to destroy the “biggest achievements of democratic socialism"... Tories think that his brutally populist instincts could make him a more formidable opponent than the dour chancellor."

Writing in yesterday's Independent, however, John Rentoul believes that Gordon Brown's position has rarely been stronger and offers two reasons.   First, according to Mr Rentoul, Alan Johnson - because he's English and laid-back - is the main threat to Gordon Brown becoming Labour leader and the Education Secretary has had a bad summer.  Mr Johnson helping a constituent into a private school angered the class war left and his indifference to marriage enraged the Daily Mail right.

John Rentoul also believes that David Cameron isn't yet strong enough to worry the Chancellor: "The Conservative leader - although he has yet to hit real turbulence - does seem to lack thrust. His plane has taken off, but it seems to be struggling to gain height."

Pink News: Gordon Brown has consistently failed to support gay rights laws

Research by the Pink News website has found that Gordon Brown has never attended a Parliamentary vote on gay rights issues since Labour came to power.  Pink News does not believe that the Chancellor's workload is a sufficient excuse for not voting.   It notes that Tony Blair managed four votes.

Ming Campbell is revealed as the most gay-friendly party leader - according to the site - having recorded ten votes in favour of gay rights since 1997.

Related link: Tory support rises amongst gay voters

Ming: I'm a lefty

Three 'Mingsights' emerge from an interview that the LibDem leader has given to The Spectator's Fraser Nelson (not yet online):

1. Britain's political heartbeat is on the left: "I have always thought that the natural heartbeat of Britain is in the centre Left." Sir Ming bemoans the fact that the left has been divided: "That was one of Tony Blair’s great propositions: that if the Left was not joined up, but at least in association, you can create a 21st century dominated by the Left in the way the Right dominated in the 20th century.’" Fraser Nelson's conclusion: "Conservatives relying on his co-operation in a hung parliament had better start thinking of a Plan B."  Unless, of course, David Cameron offers him a bigger position in the Cabinet!

2. Gordon Brown may cut and run in 18 months:  "I have put our troops on standby for an election in October 2007.  If Gordon Brown becomes leader next autumn, and gets an opinion poll bounce, he may well be tempted to seek his own mandate immediately."  David Gauke MP has raised the same possibility.  In The Spectator's political column it is revealed that Alastair Campbell told Boris Johnson that Tony Blair will go in "a year and a bit".   

3. All the parties are agreed on Britain's high tax burden: When challenged on failing to offer any reduction to Gordon Brown's record tax burden, the LibDem leader says: "George Osborne is supporting these very high levels of tax... Maybe it’s not quite Butskellism. But there has emerged a kind of consensus that no one is going to cut the overall tax burden. So we have been the first party to say “right, within that there should be different priorities”.

Son of Gordon

Gordon Brown's second son has just been safely born and ConservativeHome sends him and his wife Sarah warm congratulations. 

There are rumours that 'Brown child number two' might be named Gordon!

Any suggestions for a better name...?

Anything TOO naughty will be deleted.