ConservativeHome's ToryDiary

Eric Pickles for Party Chairman

A new YouGov poll for The Sunday Times gives the Conservatives a whopping 22% lead.  The temptation for David Cameron will be to take no major risks with policy and personnel.  The likeliest personnel change is, however, a change of Party Chairman.

The Mail on Sunday is reporting anger amongst unnamed female MPs at a "whispering campaign" against Mrs Spelman.  Mrs Spelman's defenders attack private briefings in which her axeing is said to be "certain".  In the current environment where voter tolerance of political sleaze is at breaking point, even the slightest criticism of Mrs Spelman in the forthcoming report into the employment of her nanny will result in her resignation.  A ConservativeHome poll of 1,470 party members carried out on 30th June to 5th July shows overwhelming support for Eric Pickles to replace her by the time of the Party Conference:

The Mail on Sunday quotes a defender of Mrs Spelman as saying that appointing Eric to the top job at CCHQ would be "a major setback to Mr Cameron’s attempt to change the party’s ‘white male’ image."  But, it could equally be argued, that Mr Pickles does much more to tackle perceptions that the Tories are too southern and too elitist.   Promotions for Maria Miller and Justine Greening - who has performed a first class task on VED - would also show that Mr Cameron remains committed to promoting female talent.

Mr Pickles has come under fire from some CCHQ insiders for being too willing to take the glory for the victory in Crewe and Nantwich but the overwhelming view of colleagues and staffers is admiration.  Not an easy man to categorise politically, Mr Pickles is not 'of the right' in the way that David Davis is but his appointment would restore some of the balance that was lost when Mr Davis left David Cameron's top team.  Mr Pickles would be a superb, campaigning Party Chairman for the Conservatives in a run-up to the General Election.  We hope he gets the nod.

Tory members say David Davis was wrong to resign (but David Cameron should have him back)

David Cameron is campaigning for David Davis this afternoon; George Osborne visits next week; Iain Duncan Smith, Jeremy Hunt and Chris Grayling were in Haltemprice and Howden yesterday.  Every Tory MP has been instructed to visit at least once.

The overwhelming view of Tory MPs who ConservativeHome have spoken to, however, is that David Davis was wrong to resign his seat and should have fought for his views within the shadow cabinet.  Tory members agree with that view although in almost identical numbers they want Mr Davis brought back into the shadow cabinet - an unlikely outcome, at least in the short-term.  By two-to-one Tory members also believe that David Davis' campaign will highlight  "the ways in which our civil liberties are in danger".

Last week Mr Davis launched his campaign with Ten Promises to Protect British Freedoms.

Related link: On the afternoon of David Davis' resignation we found 66% of Tory members "inspired" by his resignation.

Stronger families? Lower taxation? Action on climate change?

In this month's ConservativeHome survey we seek your views on the future of Gordon Brown, David Davis and Caroline Spelman.  We also want to know what you'd most like the next Conservative Government to achieve:  Stronger families?  Lower taxation?  Action on climate change?

Click here to take survey.

Any questions for you?

What questions should we include in the June survey?  It goes live tomorrow morning.

65% of Tory members "inspired" by David Davis' move

1,291 Tory members have been voting this afternoon in a survey of grassroots reactions to David Davis' decision to resign his seat and fight a by-election in defence of Britain's historic liberties.  Most members are inspired by his move and 70% would like to see him reinstated as Shadow Home Secretary should he win his by-election - as he almost certainly will.  The survey also shows that just 12% of Tory members support a 42 day detention period.  50% actually want 14 days or less.

THE FIRST SET OF QUESTIONS FOCUSED ON REACTIONS TO TODAY'S NEWS.  RESPONDENTS WERE ASKED TO AGREE OR DISAGREE WITH THE FOLLOWING STATEMENTS:

There are better ways of making a protest than this:
Agree: 38%
Disagree: 48%

This is an inspired move that will draw great attention to a vital issue:
Agree: 65%
Disagree: 25%

David Cameron should invite David Davis back as Shadow Home Secretary should he win the by-election.
Agree: 70%
Disagree: 19%

The Conservatives should repeal 42 days pre-charge detention when/ if we come into Government.
Agree: 87%
Disagree: 8%

67% of the public support 42 days and Conservatives need to be careful not to get on the wrong side of that popular opinion.
Agree: 24%
Disagree: 72%

David Davis probably resigned because he did not think David Cameron was tough enough in resisting 42 days and promising to repeal it.
Agree: 26%
Disagree: 49%

WE THEN ASKED ABOUT THE ISSUE AT THE HEART OF THIS ROW:

Which period of pre-charge detention would you like to see in Britain?
14 days or less: 50%
28 days: 38%
42 days: 10%
More than 42 days: 2%.

The survey is still open if you want to vote.

Special survey...

What do you think of 42 days' pre charge detention? What do you think of David Davis' by-election campaign?

Click here to take part in a special ConservativeHome survey.  We will publish interim results at 6pm.

The futures of Boris and Ken

In the May survey we asked for views on the futures of Boris and Ken (Clarke!).  There has been talk of Boris as a future Tory leader and of Ken Clarke returning to a Conservative Cabinet.  The box below summarises the views of 1,483 members.

Eric Pickles emerges as a new Tory hero

The Conservative Party has a new star - or, more accurately, grassroots members have recognised that Eric Pickles is a star.

David Cameron calls him the "big man" and he played leading roles in the victories of 1st May and at Crewe and Nantwich.  Two months ago when Conservative members last ranked the shadow cabinet, the Shadow Secretary of State for Communities and Local Government ranked 10th but he's now shot up to 3rd - just behind the members' favourites; David Davis and William Hague.

Most of the shadow cabinet see their ratings rise compared with two months ago (ratings represent the percentage of Conservative members satisfied minus those dissatisfied).  In addition to Eric there are big increases for Andrew Lansley, Oliver Letwin, Theresa May and Francis Maude.  Francis Maude's increase is particularly striking.  He has largely been in negative territory throughout these surveys but has a +15% rating this time.  This may reflect strong recent media performances and a recognition of the importance of his 'preparing-for-government' role.

Sayeeda Warsi loses some ground after successive months of moving up the league table.  More interesting is the continued weakness of Andrew Mitchell and Theresa Villiers.  Even in these good times for the party - and with their portfolios in the news - their ratings are down.

1. William Hague +87% | +89%
2. David Davis +83% | +87%
3. Eric Pickles +42% | +76%
4. George Osborne +66% | +72%
5. Liam Fox +64% | +71%
6. Alan Duncan +57% | +65%
7. Chris Grayling +62% | +64%
8. Michael Gove +55% | +62%
9. Lord Strathclyde +51% | +55%
10. Nick Herbert +44% | +45%
11. Philip Hammond +35% | +44%
12. Andrew Lansley +32% | +42%
13. Pauline Neville-Jones +38% | +39%
14. Patrick McLoughlin +20% | +33%
15. Caroline Spelman +30% | +32%
16. Oliver Letwin +20% | +31%
17. Jeremy Hunt +26% | +30%
18. Peter Ainsworth +20% | +24%
19. David Willetts +22% | +23%
    
20. Owen Paterson +19% | +21%
21. Theresa May +10% | +20%
22. Sayeeda Warsi +27% | +20%
23. Andrew Mitchell +18% | +16%
24. Cheryl Gillan +13% | +16%
25. Francis Maude -9% | +15%
26. Theresa Villers +10% | +8%
27. David Mundell -2% | +3%

Have your say in ConservativeHome.com's May survey

ConservativeHome.com's May survey is now live. In addition to the regular tracker questions about the performance of David Cameron and the shadow cabinet we are asking questions about Boris Johnson, Ken Clarke, MEP selection and a few questions about ConservativeHome itself.

Please click here to have your say.

Liam Fox is leader of the Right within shadow cabinet

Earlier this week we published the results of our survey of leading 'voices of the parliamentary Right' from outside the frontbench.  John Redwood, then Norman Tebbit, then IDS were the voices most recognised by Tory members.  We also ran a separate question for the frontbench: "Who is the single most effective voice of 'the Right' on the Conservative frontbench, including the shadow cabinet and the House of Lords?"

Unlike with the question for the non-frontbench we asked people to 'write in' answers.  In other words, they didn't have a list to choose from.  94% of the 1,159 people who volunteered an answer identified just three people: Liam Fox, David Davis and William Hague:

The survey shows that 44% of members regard Dr Liam Fox, Shadow Defence Secretary as the most effective voice of the Right on the frontbench.  In many ways Dr Fox fits the popular idea of a 'right-winger'.  He is strongly pro-American and Eurosceptic.   He is pro-marriage and supports a much lower time limit on abortion.  He favours lower taxation and advocated much more patient choice when he was the party's health spokesman.  Like IDS, however, he is also at the forefront of the party's social justice agenda.  The language of 'broken society' agenda was first employed by Dr Fox during his leadership bid.  Writing for ConservativeHome in November 2005, Michael Gove drew parallels with the Fox and Cameron agendas.  Michael Gove's article makes even more interesting reading in retrospect.

The leaders of The Right

Yesterday evening we noted that 'The Right' was quite an unsatisfactory term but in the April survey of members we asked Tory members to vote for 'the most powerful voice of the Right' (a voice from within Parliament but not serving on the frontbench).  We'll be unveiling the results for the frontbench tomorrow.  This list of twelve followed a rudimentary shortlisting process on this page.  The results represent the views of 1,657 Tory members.

1st: John Redwood MP: 27%

The man who, in 1995, resigned as Welsh Secretary to challenge John Major for the Conservative Party leadership is the most powerful parliamentary voice of 'the Right' according to just over a quarter of Tory members.  David Cameron appointed Mr Redwood to run the party's policy group on economic competitiveness and his recommendation to abolish inheritance tax has (largely) been accepted by the party.  His scepticism about green taxation and controls on development have also tended to prevail over the more restrictionist approach favoured by John Gummer's policy group.  Mr Redwood has put forward his own ideas for a 'practical environmentalism'.  Now blogging on a daily basis, ConservativeHome has previously paid tribute to the economic insight of his regular posts.

2nd: Lord (Norman) Tebbit: 25%

The former Tory Party Chairman and scourge of trade union barons was just 2% behind John Redwood as the leading right-of-centre voice.  With Britain's first woman Prime Minister unable to make serious, public political interventions anymore Lord Tebbit is seen by many as the pre-eminent keeper of the Thatcherite flame.  He was in the newspapers recently calling for the Conservative Party to focus on winning the support of the millions of voters who have stopped participating in the democratic process.  Also recently, he attacked Michael Gove's views on Tony Blair and defended Tony Blair's decision to stop the probe into British Aerospace's arm sales to Saudi Arabia.

3rd: Iain Duncan Smith MP: 14%

Another policy group chief, Iain Duncan Smith, is third on the list.  The former Conservative leader's social justice work has restored a reputation that took such a battering when he was leader.  His Centre for Social Justice is hugely influential on Project Cameron and he now works closely with politicians from other parties.  This cross-party character may have produced the large number of comments from readers as to whether IDS could still be thought of as "right-wing".  The great strength of IDS' commitment to poverty-fighting is that it is based on an authentically conservative worldview.  He sees the free institutions of civil society as central to defeating the poverty that has come to characterise too much of big state Britain.

Tory policies on crime are most likely to help win General Election

In the March survey of Tory members we asked this question:

"Listed below are all the main UK-wide policy areas. In which area does the Conservative Party have impressive policy ideas that will help win the next General Election."

Crime was at the top of the list.  68% of you thought that the party had policies on crime that will help us win the election.

Interestingly, culture, media and sport was at the bottom of the list.  Although you voted the abolition of the BBC monopoly on the licence fee as the best policy innovation of 2007, you like it intrinsically rather than electorally.  That's probably the right judgment.

April questions

It's survey time again. Please use the thread below to suggest questions for ConservativeHome's monthly survey. We don't plan on releasing the results until after 1st May.

Shadow cabinet satisfaction ratings for March

No great movements in the latest rankings of the shadow cabinet, as voted by the grassroots.  William Hague and David Davis continue to trade places as the most rated member of the shadow cabinet with William Hague finishing top this month. Sayeeda Warsi, Andrew Lansley, Patrick McLoughlin and David Willetts all continue to rise up the table.  Francis Maude takes a tumble this month - probably because of his remarks about tax.

Listed below are the shadow cabinet ratings for the last six months with the most recent on the right.  The ratings represent the percentage of Conservative members satisfied minus those dissatisfied.   

1. William Hague +84% | +88% | +87% | +85% | +84% | +87%
2. David Davis +83% | +88% | +88% | +80% | +85% | +83%
3. George Osborne +79% | +85% | +81% | +76% | +70% | +66%
4. Liam Fox +65% | +69% | +71% | +64% | +65% | +64%
5. Chris Grayling +47% | +59% | +58% | +69% | +66% | +62%
6. Alan Duncan +47% | +51% | +55% | +55% | +57% | +57%
7. Michael Gove +53% | +61% | +58% | +52% | +50% | +55%
8. Lord Strathclyde +48% | +54% | +54% | +53% | +49% | +51%
9. Nick Herbert +38% | +41% | +44% | +40% | +44% | +44%
10. Eric Pickles +38% | +41% | +45% | +39% | +39% | +42%
11. Pauline Neville-Jones +25% | +38% | +38% | +30% | +35% | +38%
12. Philip Hammond +36% | +42% | +42% | +38% | +40% | +35%
13. Andrew Lansley +43% | +45% | +46% | +49% | +26% | +32%
14. Caroline Spelman +24% | +30% | +32% | +32% | +31% | +30%
15. Sayeeda Warsi -4% | -2% | +18% | +16% | +19% | +27%
16. Jeremy Hunt +19% | +20% | +21% | +24% | +26% | +26%
17. David Willetts +3% | +7% | +13% | +17% | +20% | +22%
18. Peter Ainsworth +16% | +22% | +23% | +18% | +22% | +20%
19. Oliver Letwin +17% | +23% | +21% | +20% | +21% | +20%
20. Patrick McLoughlin +27% | +28% | +29% | +10% | +14% | +20%
21. Owen Paterson +16% | +17% | +18% | +15% | +15% | +19%
22. Andrew Mitchell +19% | +20% | +19% | +17% | +20% | +18%
23. Cheryl Gillan +10% | +14% | +16% | +13% | +15% | +13%
24. Theresa Villers +9% | +14% | +14% | +11% | +14% | +10%
25. Theresa May +6% | +20% | +15% | +10% | +12% | +10%
26. David Mundell -3% | +3% | +2% | -2% | -1% | -2%
27. Francis Maude -2% | +5% | +4% | +1% | +3% | -9%

Grassroots remain united behind David Cameron

The numbers aren't quite as high as those that immediately followed last autumn's dramatic events but David Cameron continues to enjoy very high levels of support from the Conservative grassroots.

1,525 Tory members were surveyed from 28th March to 31st March.

March survey is now live

Please click here to have your say.

What Tory members want next from the leadership

As Conservatives gather in Gateshead (see the above morning view from ConservativeHome's hotel) we asked Tory members what they thought the leadership should do next.  The results below of yesterday's survey also featured on this morning's Today programme.  Highlights:

• Members want stronger attacks on Labour and a powerful account of the extent to which Britain has become broken during the Blair-Brown years.  These are the top two wishes of the grassroots.
• There is a strong belief in the electoral potency of David Cameron.  85% want him front-and-centre in future campaigns.
• 82% support the Tory leader's recent decision to launch a campaign against the political establishment.  Nick Clegg is jumping on to this issue today with a call to cut the number of MPs by 150.
• By four-to-one Tory members oppose George Osborne's matching of Labour's spending plans.  They want to abandon that pledge so tax relief can be afforded.  Iain Dale makes the case for lower taxation in his Telegraph column of today.
• Tory members aren't in a hurry for a change of direction, however.  84% agree that we should focus on May's elections and then make next step decisions.

The words used above to describe the next steps are summaries of the statements put to respondents.  Download exact_wording_of_next_steps.pdf

Lansley slips in latest shadow cabinet ratings

David Davis is back at the top of the shadow cabinet league table - overtaking William Hague.  The views of 1,529 members were collected before Thursday night's Question Time programme - during which David Davis made a humorous one line attack on Labour's approach to civil liberties.  From memory he said something like 'Labour do not seem to understand that Orwell's 1984 was a warning not a template'!

The big loser this month is Andrew Lansley.  Last month his net satisfaction rating was +49%.  This month, following his loose-tongued Times interview, the man already confirmed as the next Tory Health Secretary (electorate permitting) dropped to +26%.

Osborne also drops again a little.  David Willetts, however, continues to climb gradually upwards - recovering slowly but surely from grammarsgate.

1. David Davis +79% | +78% | +83% | +88% | +88% | +80% | +85%
2. William Hague +76% | +71% | +84% | +88% | +87% | +85% | +84%
3. George Osborne +24% | +7% | +79% | +85% | +81% | +76% | +70%
4. Chris Grayling +36% | +29% | +47% | +59% | +58% | +69% | +66%
5. Liam Fox +49% | +46% | +65% | +69% | +71% | +64% | +65%
6. Alan Duncan +40% | +28% | +47% | +51% | +55% | +55% | +57%
7. Michael Gove +40% | +30% | +53% | +61% | +58% | +52% | +50%
8. Lord Strathclyde +43% | +40% | +48% | +54% | +54% | +53% | +49%
9. Nick Herbert +19% | +19% | +38% | +41% | +44% | +40% | +44%
10. Philip Hammond +17% | +14% | +36% | +42% | +42% | +38% | +40%
11. Eric Pickles +31% | +27% | +38% | +41% | +45% | +39% | +39%
12. Pauline Neville-Jones +15% | +11% | +25% | +38% | +38% | +30% | +35%
13. Caroline Spelman +34% | +27% | +24% | +30% | +32% | +32% | +31%
14. Jeremy Hunt +10% | +7% | +19% | +20% | +21% | +24% | +26%
15. Andrew Lansley +20% | +24% | +43% | +45% | +46% | +49% | +26%
16. Peter Ainsworth +8% | +3% | +16% | +22% | +23% | +18% | +22%
17. Oliver Letwin -6% | -14% | +17% | +23% | +21% | +20% | +21%
18. Andrew Mitchell +10% | +5% | +19% | +20% | +19% | +17% | +20%
19. David Willetts -1% | -14% | +3% | +7% | +13% | +17% | +20%
20. Sayeeda Warsi -20% | -14% | -4% | -2% | +18% | +16% | +19%
21. Owen Paterson +10% | +9% | +16% | +17% | +18% | +15% | +15%
22. Cheryl Gillan +3% | +3% | +10% | +14% | +16% | +13% | +15%
23. Theresa Villers +7% | +5% | +9% | +14% | +14% | +11% | +14%
24. Patrick McLoughlin +9% | +2% | +27% | +28% | +29% | +10% | +14%
25. Theresa May +8% | +2% | +6% | +20% | +15% | +10% | +12%
26. Francis Maude -10% | -16% | -2% | +5% | +4% | +1% | +3%
27. David Mundell -6% | -11% | -3% | +3% | +2% | -2% | -1%

The above ratings are all monthly with the most recent on the right.  The ratings represent the percentage of members satisfied minus those dissatisfied.

What should the Tories do next on Europe?

Gordon Brown wakes up to terrible headlines this morning.  The Daily Mail talks of A Shaming Day for Democracy.  The Sun blames Labour and LibDem MPs for "the biggest surrender of British power for centuries".  Nick Clegg will be even less pleased.  Over recent days he has revealed himself to be willing to put his commitment to further European integration before any of his party's democratic ideals.  He, more than any other player in this whole saga, has been badly diminished.

But what do the Tories do next?  With the referendum now looking very unlikely the Conservatives will soon have to decide what William Hague meant when he (and David Cameron) promised that "we could not let matters rest there" if the LIsbon Treaty is ratified without the people's consent.

The view of Tory members is very clear.  76% agree that the Tories should hold a retrospective referendum with just 18% disagreeing.  This poll of 1,529 members was conducted by ConservativeHome.com from 29th February to 5th March.

Over at CentreRight.com, Andrew Lilico disagrees.  Lisbon is not the real issue.  For Andrew "Lisbon is the last straw, rather than the largest step."  He wants a wider renegotiation of our relationship with Europe.  Although we don't agree with Andrew's antipathy to referenda he's largely right.  Lisbon will soon be a done deal.  Our problems with Europe are deeper.

The Tory leadership will hate all of this.  William Hague is known to regard the European issue as a ticking bomb at the heart of the party.  At the moment the bomb is stable, his thinking goes, and so long as he and Cameron don't move the bomb it is unlikely to go off.  That's partly why frontbenchers were ordered yesterday not to support an amendment by Bill Cash that proposed the supremacy of the UK Parliament.  They look at polls showing that Europe is the most important issue to only 1% of voters and wish the issue would go away.

If the Eurosceptics are to succeed they need to connect the European issue with the bread and butter issues of economic competitiveness, immigration and crime that matter most to the British people.  Until that happens Britain will continue to see a drift of powers across the English Channel.

Grayling up and McLoughlin down in latest ratings of shadow cabinet

Listed below are the latest ratings for members of the shadow cabinet - as voted by more than 1,600 Tory members.  The most recent monthly rating is on the right.

The two most interesting moves since the previous month are a big increase in satisfaction with Chris Grayling and a significant drop in approval of Chief Whip Patrick McLoughlin's performance.  Our guess is that Mr Grayling is benefiting from his launch of radical welfare reform ideas and Mr McLoughlin is suffering from the first 24 hours' mishandling of Derek Conway's censure by the Standards and Privileges Committee.

1. William Hague +76% | +71% | +84% | +88% | +87% | +85%
2. David Davis +79% | +78% | +83% | +88% | +88% | +80%
3. George Osborne +24% | +7% | +79% | +85% | +81% | +76%
4. Chris Grayling +36% | +29% | +47% | +59% | +58% | +69%
5. Liam Fox +49% | +46% | +65% | +69% | +71% | +64%
6. Alan Duncan +40% | +28% | +47% | +51% | +55% | +55%
7. Lord Strathclyde +43% | +40% | +48% | +54% | +54% | +53%
8. Michael Gove +40% | +30% | +53% | +61% | +58% | +52%
9. Andrew Lansley +20% | +24% | +43% | +45% | +46% | +49%
10. Nick Herbert +19% | +19% | +38% | +41% | +44% | +40%
11. Eric Pickles +31% | +27% | +38% | +41% | +45% | +39%
12. Philip Hammond +17% | +14% | +36% | +42% | +42% | +38%
13. Caroline Spelman +34% | +27% | +24% | +30% | +32% | +32%
14. Pauline Neville-Jones +15% | +11% | +25% | +38% | +38% | +30%
15. Jeremy Hunt +10% | +7% | +19% | +20% | +21% | +24%
16. Oliver Letwin -6% | -14% | +17% | +23% | +21% | +20%
17. Peter Ainsworth +8% | +3% | +16% | +22% | +23% | +18%
18. Andrew Mitchell +10% | +5% | +19% | +20% | +19% | +17%
19. David Willetts -1% | -14% | +3% | +7% | +13% | +17%
20. Sayeeda Warsi -20% | -14% | -4% | -2% | +18% | +16%
21. Owen Paterson +10% | +9% | +16% | +17% | +18% | +15%
22. Cheryl Gillan +3% | +3% | +10% | +14% | +16% | +13%
23. Theresa Villers +7% | +5% | +9% | +14% | +14% | +11%
24. Theresa May +8% | +2% | +6% | +20% | +15% | +10%
25. Patrick McLoughlin +9% | +2% | +27% | +28% | +29% | +10%
26. Francis Maude -10% | -16% | -2% | +5% | +4% | +1%
27. David Mundell -6% | -11% | -3% | +3% | +2% | -2%.

77% of Tory members want slower growth in public spending

1,622 Tory members took part in the latest ConservativeHome.com survey.  It contained good news and bad news for the Shadow Chancellor.

86% of members are satisfied with George Osborne's performance and just 11% are dissatisfied. But if members are happy with Mr Osborne's overall performance they don't approve of his pledge to match Labour on spending.

Only 19% agree with matching Labour's commitment to 2% annual growth in public spending.  Nearly four times as many want slower growth in public spending so that Britain can afford reduced borrowing or economy-boosting tax relief.

Philip Hammond MP, Shadow Chief Secretary to the Treasury, has agreed to explain Tory spending policy in an article for ConservativeHome.com.  We hope to receive it in time to publish tomorrow.  In today's FT Mr Hammond rejects members' concerns as "barmy".

Related link: Rees-Mogg urges Osborne to break free of Labour's spending plans

7pm: Barmy, eh? Corin Taylor of the TaxPayers' Alliance takes issue with Philip Hammond.

January survey is live

We know its 1st February but it's been a busy week!  Click here to have your say.

Thanks for readers' ideas for questions.  The suggestions were very helpful and we've taken up a good number of them.  In addition to the regular tracker questions we are seeking your views on the pace of party strategy, public spending growth, the length of time individuals should be party members before becoming candidates, reforming the BBC licence fee and your choice of American presidential candidate.

Questions for you

It's that time of the month again when we poll readers of this site.  What questions should we ask?

Tory members warm to Sayeeda Warsi

Not much change from end-November to end-December ratings for most of the shadow cabinet but one notable movement is the accelerated rise of Sayeeda Warsi.  When we first rated the Shadow Minister for Community Cohesion and Social Action members were very unimpressed.  19% were satisfied with her and 39% dissatisfied.  People were surprised at her rapid elevation to the Lords and concerned at her loose talk about extremists.

Steadily she is improving her standing.  In the end-December rating the proportion of members satisfied with Baroness Warsi has risen to 47% and the dissatisfieds has dropped to 29%.

In the last month Baroness Warsi captured the headlines with her high profile visit to Khartoum to help free the 'Teddy Bear Teacher'.  She also gave a well-received speech that challenged Muslim groups to integrate more effectively and also wrote for The Telegraph, arguring that "Christmas is for everyone to celebrate".

The numbers below are for the final weeks of August, September, October, November and December:

1. David Davis +79% | +78% | +83% | +88% | +88%
2. William Hague +76% | +71% | +84% | +88% | +87%
3. George Osborne +24% | +7% | +79% | +85% | +81%
4. Liam Fox +49% | +46% | +65% | +69% | +71%
5. Michael Gove +40% | +30% | +53% | +61% | +58%
6. Chris Grayling +36% | +29% | +47% | +59% | +58%
7. Alan Duncan +40% | +28% | +47% | +51% | +55%
8. Lord Strathclyde +43% | +40% | +48% | +54% | +54%
9. Andrew Lansley +20% | +24% | +43% | +45% | +46%
10. Eric Pickles +31% | +27% | +38% | +41% | +45%
11. Nick Herbert +19% | +19% | +38% | +41% | +44%
12. Philip Hammond +17% | +14% | +36% | +42% | +42%
13. Pauline Neville-Jones +15% | +11% | +25% | +38% | +38%
14. Caroline Spelman +34% | +27% | +24% | +30% | +32%
15. Patrick McLoughlin +9% | +2% | +27% | +28% | +29%
16. Peter Ainsworth +8% | +3% | +16% | +22% | +23%
17. Oliver Letwin -6% | -14% | +17% | +23% | +21%
18. Jeremy Hunt +10% | +7% | +19% | +20% | +21%
19. Andrew Mitchell +10% | +5% | +19% | +20% | +19%
20. Owen Paterson +10% | +9% | +16% | +17% | +18%
21. Sayeeda Warsi -20% | -14% | -4% | -2% | +18%
22. Cheryl Gillan +3% | +3% | +10% | +14% |+16%
23. Theresa May +8% | +2% | +6% | +20% | +15%
24. Theresa Villers +7% | +5% | +9% | +14% | +14%
25. David Willetts -1% | -14% | +3% | +7% | +13%
26. Francis Maude -10% | -16% | -2% | +5% | +4%
27. David Mundell -6% | -11% | -3% | +3% | +2%

Dominic Grieve is the MP you would most like to see promoted to the shadow cabinet

We're spending this week thinking about the talent that David Cameron has at his disposal.  On New Year's Day we looked at the Tory leader's number one ally, George Osborne and the challenges facing him in 2008.  Yesterday we profiled the nine people, including the Shadow Chancellor, who, we guess, are featuring most prominently in Cameron's plans.  Today we turn to the individuals you - and we - would most like to see join the Conservative Party's top table.

[In the December ConservativeHome Members' Panel survey we asked who you would like to see in the shadow cabinet (you could choose any number of MPs from a given list) and who you would most like to see in the shadow cabinet.]

Top of the league table that resulted is Shadow Attorney General, Dominic Grieve.  18% of the people who took part in the poll chose Mr Grieve as the person that they'd like to see promoted.  43.6% agreed that they he was one of the MPs they'd like promoted.  Insiders were very surprised that he was passed over by David Cameron at the last reshuffle.  Well-liked by his colleagues he may have been damaged by his support for more grammar schools in Buckinghamshire and by his reported opposition to draft plans to terminate the authority of the European Court of Human Rights.

Patrick Mercer is the choice of 11.7% of Panel members as the MP most deserving of a shadow cabinet place.  25.4% included the former homeland security spokesman on their list of desirable members of the top team.  Most members thought Mercer was hard done by when he was forced to resign over remarks that were seen as racially insensitive but he won little sympathy from members for choosing to advise Gordon Brown at a time of maximum difficulty for David Cameron.  His rehabilitation is now underway, however, through an advisory role he is fulfilling on service families' welfare.

10.9% of you picked Ed Vaizey as your man (31.4% put him on their list).  He is having a third go at regular blogging btw.  On New Year's Day he made his third commitment to blog regularly.  He didn't quite manage yesterday!  He's not as bad as the FT Westminster bloggers, however.   The readers of that blog are stuck on 4th December.

Fourth in the league is Damian Green.  Like Dominic Grieve he was seriously considered for the Justice slot that Nick Herbert eventually received but remains in charge of the hugely important immigration brief.  10.5% of Panel members had the Kent MP as their top choice.  31.6% had him on their list.

Fifth is Mr Sleepover, Grant Shapps.  Although the Shadow Housing Minister attends shadow cabinet he is not yet a full member.  Expect that to change soon.  His Panel scores were 8.2% and 22.8%.

A PDF of Your views on all of the MPs in the vote is here,

Now, our turn.  These are the top choices of th Editors:

Tim: "As the Conservatives look to convince the British people that we are ready for government again we need more people of real intellectual weight around the shadow cabinet table.  We need practical people who will be able to run major departments of state and thinkers who are willing to challenge conventional wisdom.  Step forward Dr Greg Clark.  Currently a shadow minister in the Cabinet Office, Greg Clark became the MP for Tunbridge Wells at the last General Election.  He saw government from the inside during the Major years.  He was Controller of Commercial Policy at the BBC before becoming Head of Policy for Iain Duncan Smith and Michael Howard.  Today he is one of the party's truest compassionate conservatives.  Both in policy and personal integrity.  He worked on welfare policy for the social justice policy group and is the co-author of a recent forward-thinking paper on progressive politics.  When men like Greg are sat around the Conservative Party's top table we will communicate our seriousness as a Government-in-waiting."

Samuel: "For many of the reasons given by Tim above, and because the Party doesn't seem to be too interested in foreign policy, I'd like to see David Lidington given Shadow Cabinet status. He has a good knowledge of Education and Home Affairs (and a good general knowledge having captained two champion University Challenge teams), but his real expertise is on foreign affairs. After having the Northern Ireland brief which he handled very well he was moved up to be Shadow Minister for Foreign Affairs in the summer - Hague's number two. David certainly keeps his ear to the ground about what goes on not just in international politics but in the Westminster village, where he is widely considered to be one of the most genuinely nice MPs. I was particularly impressed with his character a couple of months ago when without really being asked to he twice came over to the tents in Parliament Square (see above pic of him putting the world to rights with Mark Wallace) in which I was staying the night, to help wave placards about Burma and to chat to the Burmese protesters for an hour and a half."

Tomorrow we publish the December satisfaction ratings for the shadow cabinet.  One member's rating has moved quite significantly...