ConservativeHome's ToryDiary

Britain needs less caution from the Conservatives

In last year's New Year Editorial our big question concerned George Osborne and whether he would use 2008 to become the nation's Chancellor-in-waiting.  ConservativeHome's big issue for 2009 is the title of this post.

71% of Conservative members are hoping to see less caution and "grittier" leadership from David Cameron in the coming year.  The finding comes from ConHome's survey of 1,816 Tory members, undertaken from 22nd to 28th December, and covered in today's Telegraph.  A large minority - 43% - also say they are not yet enthused by David Cameron's leadership.  The overall picture, however - as the graphic below shows - is of a membership that is overwhelmingly satisfied with David Cameron and a huge expectation that he will be in Downing Street after the next General Election.

Click on the graphic to enlarge.

Despite the recent narrowing of the polls I have never been more sure that we'll win the next election.  Voters will punish Gordon Brown for leading Britain into the developed world's deepest recession.  Chances are that a long period of Conservative government will then begin.  All over the world - think Blair, Bush, Chirac, Harper, Howard, Schoeder - first-term governments are re-elected.  Fair-minded electorates give governments the time to deliver.  How will David Cameron use an extended period of government?  Will the caution of recent times be maintained or will the caution evolve into a bolder programme?

The scale of Britain's challenges demand a bolder programme.  There are too many areas of current Tory policy where caution reigns:

• We promise public spending restraint but the difference between us and Labour is - at most - intended to be less than 1% of GDP.
• We want to import Sweden's successful schools model but without the essential freedom for new schools to make profits if they wish.
• Our promise of a high-speed rail link for northern England won't be delivered for at least twenty years.
• David Cameron's flagship idea of National Community Service is voluntary and would last for just six weeks.
• David Cameron says that he is minded against Jeremy Hunt's draft proposal to end the BBC's monopoly on the licence fee but does support a £6 reduction once the digital handover is complete.  £6-a-year is hardly radical.

I don't mean to imply that a Conservative government wouldn't be worth having.  On every front David Cameron would take Britain forward.  A government with him in Downing Street would finally end the Labour years of spin and squander.  We'd get elected police chiefs.  Tax simplification.  An end to the couple penalty in the benefits system.  I just hope - particularly on the economy and social reform - we'll see more boldness.

A final thought on this topic: My tea-bag-in-hot-water theory of political prediction: Just as you never know how good a tea bag is until it's in hot water, it's also true we won't have a conclusive idea about David Cameron's true potential until he's actually elected.  Let's hope he's a Whittards' English Breakfast.  Happy new year every one.

Tim Montgomerie

> Listen to Tim Montgomerie discuss the survey results on the Today programme.

Grassroots want the 'big beasts' in the shadow cabinet

According to the Daily Mail "senior Tory sources" have refused to deny that Ken Clarke is about to return to the shadow cabinet; possibly opposite Peter Mandelson.  An article in yesterday's Sunday Telegraph got the speculation going again.  Most Tory members would be glad to see the former Chancellor and three-times-rejected leadership candidate back on the frontbench.  But in our survey of 1,816 party members there was even more support for David Davis returning - and support for George Osborne continuing as Shadow Chancellor:

Is David Cameron the best Tory leader since 1997?

Should David Davis be brought back into the shadow cabinet?

What should be the Tories' number one public spending priority?

Is it time that Britain became a secular state?

These and other questions are waiting for your answers here.

Any questions for you?

Tomorrow will see the final ConHome 2008 survey of readers go 'into the field'.

Suggestions for questions would be appreciated...

I plan to ask at least one question on declining Tory membership and how it might be reversed.

Tim Montgomerie

The race to 'own' the economic issues

The Independent reports that Labour has found an extra £5bn of savings across Whitehall.  These savings will be used to help justify next week's promise of recession-beating tax cuts and also to blunt the Tory case that there are further big economies to be made.  In a speech yesterday evening Lord (Michael) Forsyth quoted Barack Obama's promise to "go line by line through every item in the federal budget and eliminate programs that don't work and make sure that those that do work, work better and cheaper.”  This is what the Conservatives now need to do, he said.

ConservativeHome's Tuesday afternoon survey of Tory members found strong support for real terms cuts in public spending.  55% said that they supported real terms cuts in spending. 29% supported a real terms freeze.  Only 2% supported matching Labour's planned level of spending growth and another 2% supported even higher spending.

Both main parties now appear to be in a race to get there first with announcements on tax relief, waste reduction and spending restraint.  Daniel Finkelstein - very close to George Osborne - yesterday suggesting that Labour may not keep to its own spending plans.  The clearest gap between Labour and the Conservatives is in the attitude to borrowing with Conservatives saying 'enough is enough' and Labour willing to take Britain further into the red.

We also asked Tory members what recession-related issues they thought would be most important at the next election.  This is the resulting league table for those members identifying an issue as "very important":

• Unemployment: 72%
• Personal incomes: 66%
• Government borrowing: 62%
• House repossessions: 58%
• Mortgage and interest rates: 56%
• Rising severe poverty: 38%
• Behaviour of the banks: 36%
• Inflation: 34%
• The level of the pound: 27%

The Tories are calculating that - should there be an early election - government borrowing will become a much more potent issue.  Many Labour backbenchers also see political opportunity in taking a strong position on behaviour of the (nationalised) banks.

Today we launch our tracker graph of issues, their importance and which political party is most likely to 'own' them.  At this current time we believe that the Tory position on borrowing is our strongest issue and 'policy activism' is Labour's strongest issue.  We will re-release it after next week's PBR.  CLICK ON THE GRAPHIC TO ENLARGE IT.

Tim Montgomerie

One-third of Tory members expect election within six months

Earlier we published the first results of yesterday's afternoon's special survey of Tory members and found overwhelming support for the leadership's stance on tax, spend and debt. We also asked about the timing of the next election:

13% expect an election early in the new year; a fifth think it will coincide with the European elections.  Most members still expect Brown will wait until the very last minute, however.  I've always thought that too but as Iain Dale noted earlier this week, unemployment could be three million by then.  Three million or not, the economic situation is going to be grim, grim, grim.  The 'time for change' message will get stronger and the second Brown bounce will dissipate.

Ladbrokes still have 2010 as the most likely year for the election but next year is now at 13/8.

Tim Montgomerie

Nine out of ten Tory members happy with leadership's approach to tax, spend and debt

Yesterday we hoped that David Cameron's announcement on spending might produce an outbreak of peace in the Conservative Party (at least on economic policy).  We emailed out a quick survey to see if you agreed.  1,092 members answered the survey over the following eight hours. The results are encouraging:

We asked: "How do today's Tory announcements on greater public spending restraint affected your view of the party leadership?"

• 41% replied that "it makes me view them much more positively";
• 42% said "a little more positively";
• 2% said "much more negatively";
• 5% said "a little more negatively";
• 10% said it made no difference or they didn't know.

At least as significantly we found that Tory members were overwhelmingly content with the overall economic policy stance adopted by the leadership.

In a forced choice we asked respondents to say which of the two following statements they most agreed with:

• "Higher borrowing is necessary to pay for a fiscal stimulus to help Britain beat the recession"
• or "Britain cannot afford higher borrowing. Any reduction in taxes must be financed by tighter control of waste and public spending."

92% agreed with the second statement (the Conservative position); just 8% agreed with the first.

The Mail and Telegraph have both reacted very positively to yesterday's news.  Significantly, The Sun, too:

"At last, the Tories seem to be finding their voice. They have decided to put hard-working taxpayers first — and dump their daft promise to match Labour’s bloated spending... Labour seems ready to gamble the entire economy on a “cut now, pay tomorrow” burst of tax reductions financed by ever-higher borrowing. That is the economics of the madhouse."

Special 'Politics of Recession' poll

We've just uploaded a special survey on the politics of recession. Have your say here.

Tory members want Cameron to join Obama, Key, Harper and Rudd in offering tax cuts

Given all that George Osborne has done for the Conservative cause, grassroots unhappiness at his performance is uncharitable. All of us also need to understand that the Brown bounce is NOT that considerable. The latest polling confirms that David Cameron remains on course to be Prime Minister. The time for a change message is working from Washington to Wellington. It will triumph in Britain, too.

But there should never be any room for complacency and Conservatives need to enthuse voters and they need to offer some recession-relieving, economy-boosting tax relief.  That's the message to emerge from the latest ConHome survey of grassroots members when we asked about the ideal fiscal policy for the downturn:

68% of members want lower taxes. 57% want tax cuts funded by tighter spending control (also to be used to reduce borrowing) and 11% are content for lower taxes to be financed by higher borrowing.

Commentators like Daniel Finkelstein have misrepresented the lessons from other countries (see here and here) and accuse tax cutters of being punks.  In reality tax relief is on the agenda of nearly every successful politician in the world:

Although we still believe in the multiplier (or supply-side) effects of lower taxation, last week we proposed that the Conservative Party should respond to Labour's (almost certain) irresponsible tax relief plan with a responsible tax relief plan; tax cuts financed by reducing waste rather than increasing borrowing.  We are encouraged that that position is supported by a majority of Tory members.  Before recession struck it was important that resources were shifted from the bloated state to the overtaxed private sector. That's why September 2007's Tory decision to match Labour on spending was so ill-judged. A shift to the private sector is even more important now.

At 10pm we'll be releasing the results of our members' survey on tax

Grassroots have a message for George Osborne

PoliticsHome had already found a significant slump in support for George Osborne amongst the electorate at large.  Despite this website's efforts, support for the Shadow Chancellor has also plunged among the Tory grassroots.  Our latest survey of over 1,600 rank-and-file members found that 49% were satisfied with Mr Osborne but 47% were dissatisfied; a net positive rating of just 2%. That is a huge shift since last month when George Osborne enjoyed a net positive rating of +70%.

Three shadow cabinet ministers have plunged in previous surveys.  Andrew Lansley - after appearing to suggest large increases in NHS spending; David Willetts - after the grammar schools row; and Caroline Spelman after concerns about the employment of her nanny.  Mr Lansley's ratings recovered almost immediately; David Willetts has now recovered most of his drop; Mrs Spelman has yet to recover at all.  Time will tell if the grassroots have soured against Mr Osborne for a long period or are using this poll to send a warning shot across his bows.  Those small number who left comments explaining their low rating for George Osborne were evenly divided in citing the Yachtgate affair and an alleged lacklustre response to the recession.

Also down somewhat - but far less dramatically - is Liam Fox.  He was near the very top of the league table but is now 8th - falling below Alan Duncan, Michael Gove, Chris Grayling and Eric Pickles over the last year.

The survey contains some good news for Theresa Villiers.  The Shadow Transport Secretary's net rating is up 15%.  This may be due to her opposition to a third runway for Heathrow.  The policy is certainly supported by Tory members.  By 65% to 22% they support the proposal for a high speed rail line instead of a third runway.

Full shadow cabinet rankings are below.

65% of Tory members say "never" to Britain joining the Euro

Over the next few days we'll be publishing the results of ConservativeHome's October survey of Tory members.  1,614 gave us their views.

Our first result finds that two-thirds of Tory members are opposed to Britain ever joining the Euro but 30% want to keep options open:

Charles Tannock MEP made this comment last week on a CentreRight thread started by Greg Hands:

"I congratulate Greg Hands as a robust eurorealist for raising this interesting debate as we dont know for sure how the Eurozone will weather the global financial crisis. Some say it saved the Irish economy by preventing a run on their currency others say it is doomed to failure as countries like Spain and Italy have to peel off. As someone who has an open mind about its long term prospects of viability I can only say if the weaker members do peel off the core group will be much stronger making the single curency more robust not less. My understanding is the Conservative Party has formally adopted the tougher IDS position of saying "never" to the single currency as opposed to the earlier policy of William Hague of "not for the duration of each parliament' ie open to peiodic review which I recollect was endorsed by the membership in a referendum, so I cannot see a Conservative government or opposition party under David Cameron ever endorsing such a radical move and certainly not without a referendum which surely the British public would reject. However I agree with Greg that ultimately as we saw in the Eurozone countries citizens were less attached emotionally to their national currencies than many predicted provided the change did not result in inflation which at least at first it certainly did in Germany and Italy (the Teuro phenomenon) as prices were rounded up which was specifically prohibited in Cyprus and Slovenia. So I can see the basis of Greg's conjectures but doubt the PM would wish to lose his place at certain IMF and other international high level economic meetings if the UK abandoned the pound and surely such a move would be deeply unpopular in Britain and seal his fate electorally just as he is seeing a bounce in his favour and putting the outcome back into hung parliament territory."

Have your say in the latest ConservativeHome survey

In addition to the regular tracker questions we are seeking your views on transport policy, membership of the Euro and fiscal policy.  Click here to have your say.

Questions for you

The end-October survey of Tory members and ConHome readers goes 'into the field' tomorrow. Please use the thread below to suggest questions.

Narrow majorities of Tory members support returns for our own Big Beasts

Two opinion polls have shown a modest bounce for the Conservatives from our Party conference.  Yesterday's ICM survey and today's YouGov poll for The Telegraph.  A headline lead of 14% would produce a Conservative majority of over 100.  We still would prefer to wait a fortnight to see the underlying state of public opinion.  By then the immediate effects of the Conference season will diminish and the public will also have chance to reflect on Gordon Brown's reconstruction of his Government.  The details of the YouGov poll are more interesting:

The numbers show that the Tories have an edge but they're far too close for any complacency.

Brown is determined to present himself as the man who can navigate Britain through this crisis.  Labour strategists will be delighted at the 40% to 39% figure in the above results.  They are willing to swallow 'Lord Sleaze' headlines if the overall impression that is left by yesterday's reshuffles is one of an experienced government getting down to tackle serious economic problems.  Conservatives must tackle this challenge by giving serious consideration to new frontbench roles for Ken Clarke and John Redwood (as discussed here two weeks ago).  Conservative members support the return of both men.  These are the results of our recent survey on 'Returning Big Beasts' to the Tory frontbench:

"There is some discussion that David Cameron's first Cabinet should include some of the big beasts from the Major years. Which of the following individuals would you like to return to the frontbench?"

> Yesterday's ToryDiary on other Tory reshuffle considerations

The state of grassroots opinion

As reported in this morning's Independent, ConservativeHome has issued its survey of grassroots opinion this morning - on the eve of the Birmingham Conference.

Nearly all of the results are published below but here are the main findings:

• Support for David Cameron at a peak amongst the grassroots - higher than when he first became leader.
• William Hague, Eric Pickles, George Osborne, Chris Grayling and Michael Gove are the five most popular members of the shadow cabinet.
• 91% of Tory members expect the party to form the next government.
• 64% want more policy boldness.
• Only 15% of Tory members expect David Cameron's first Government to be transformational in the way that Margaret Thatcher's governments were.
• 63% believe a large reduction in taxation is needed to boost Britain's flagging economy.
• Members believe that the proceeds of a tighter public spending settlement should be shared almost equally between reduced borrowing and reduced taxation.

Pre-Conference survey is now live

Are the Conservatives heading for a large victory?
Should the party now be cautious in policy development and protect the opinion poll position?
Do you fear John Reid as Labour leader?
Should Michael Howard be in David Cameron's first Cabinet?
Will David Cameron's first government be transformational or managerial?
What do you think of Sarah Palin?
Should David Cameron use his Party Conference speech to warn the British people that very tough times lie ahead?
Should savings from Labour's spending plans be used to reduce borrowing or taxation?
Is it time to suspend plans for higher green taxes?

Click here to have your say.

Any questions for you?

Please use the thread below to suggest any questions for the September survey of Tory members and ConHome readers.  The questions will go into the field tomorrow and the results will be published on the eve of the Conservative conference.  The results will appear in The Independent but are unlikely to be as interesting as those LabourHome produced!

LabourHome, ConHome and grassroots surveys

Tim Montgomerie writes:

LabourHome's poll of members - and the finding that 54% of Labour members want Brown to go - gets on the front page of The Independent this morning.  Alex Hilton and Jag Singh of LabourHome are getting it in the neck from many Labour bloggers, eg Luke Akehurst, for conducting the poll: "The only utility of which can be to damage individual ministers and the the Party the day before the start of a crucial party conference."

I suppose we can claim some credit for the story.  LabourHome was formed as a response to this site and the surveys were a copy of our own surveys.  LibDemVoice has also started surveying its readers - sometimes in ways uncomfortable for Nick Clegg.

In the past, I've faced attacks for ConHome's own surveys of Tory members.  They have often made uncomfortable reading for our own leadership.  Some believe that this makes them undesirable.  Perhaps, but I still believe that the leadership should heed the views of the people who work so hard for Conservative success.  My belief is that David Cameron, as leader, deserves loyalty from all Tory members but he doesn't own the party.  We deserve our say - a say uncensored by party officials or mainstream media gatekeepers.

Conservative members are not as libertarian as blog threads suggest

One of the questions in the latest survey of Tory members sought to establish support for some of the 'libertarian paternalism' or 'nudging' being promoted by David Cameron's frontbench team.  We asked members to say whether they welcomed or opposed a politician doing the following things.  The table below summarises the results.  A high positive percentage means that many more members approved of a politician engaging with the subject matter than disapproved:

Three conclusions:

1. Tory members are much more willing to accept interventionism when the welfare of children is at stake.  That's why 74% of members welcome a politician speaking about chainstores selling clothes that sexualise young girls (as David Cameron has done).  20% opposed this.
2. Another determining factor appears to be the scale of the problem.  56% supported George Osborne's suggestion that there should be a cooling off period before people can use new instore credit cards.  31% opposed.  The scale of Britain's personal debt problem appears to have persuaded a majority of Tory members to give up their laissez-faire instincts in this area.
3. The third conclusion is the most interesting.  The overwhelming majority of comments left on the post about Michael Gove's Nuts and Zoo remarks was hostile.  The survey finds that Tory members are actually evenly split.  39.7% welcomed Michael Gove's intervention and 40.6% opposed it.  This is another reminder that people who leave comments on blogs are not necessarily representative.

More than half of the members who voted for David Davis regret their 2005 vote

In the most recent ConservativeHome survey we asked readers to revisit their vote in the 2005 Conservative leadership result. It was a somewhat complicated exercise as we went back to the email addresses we captured at the time to ensure there was no distortion of the outcome. The scale of the results are stark.

It would be wrong to assume that the scale of regret among David Davis voters has translated into general negativity towards the former Shadow Home Secretary.  (It is probably more of an acknowledgment of David Cameron's success.)  During last week's survey - answered by 1,587 members - we also asked for respondents' general view of David Davis now.  More than two-thirds of members feel positively towards Mr Davis; 42% said they had a very "positive view" of him and 29% said a "slightly positive" view.  20% had a "slightly negative" view and 9% a "very negative" view.

Caroline Spelman slumps in shadow cabinet league table

ConservativeHome now carries out its shadow cabinet surveys just once every two months.  The latest ratings are below with most recent on the right and reflect the votes of 1,587 members.  For new readers the percentages equal the number of members who say they are satisfied with the individual minus those dissatisfied.

Some movements of note:

• Eric Pickles has moved into second spot after shooting to near the top of the league after Crewe and Nantwich.  The Telegraph's Iain Martin has reported some briefing against Eric Pickles in recent days from key Cameroons.  They are trying to paint Eric as some sort of media tart who doesn't share credit.  ConHome spoke to Eric on most days during the Crewe campaign and he constantly paid tribute to the work of others, not least Stephen Gilbert.  This nasty briefing should stop.
• Michael Gove actually moves up one percentage point, suggesting no knock from his controversial 'Zoo' and 'Nuts' remarks.
• Andrew Lansley has now completely restored his standing following the slump that followed his interview to The Times about NHS spending.
• Dominic Grieve - who members most wanted in the shadow cabinet at the turn of the year - earns a first rating of +40%.  Perfectly respectable but well down on former Shadow Home Secretary David Davis' final rating of +87%.
• It's good to see solid improvements in the standings of Owen Paterson and Andrew Mitchell.  Members must have noticed Mr Mitchell's leading role in the hugely successful Rwanda trip and Owen Paterson's pivotal role in the new alliance with the Ulster Unionists.
• After so long rated poorly, Francis Maude is now scoring +18%.  His important preparations-for-government work may be the factor.
• The survey is obviously bad news for Party Chairman Caroline Spelman.  More members are now dissatisfied with her than satisfied.  From the beginning we have believed in Mrs Spelman's integrity but only a 100% exoneration from the Parliamentary Commissioner for Standards is now likely to restore her standing.

1. William Hague +87% | +89% | +83%
2. Eric Pickles +42% | +76% | +82%
3. George Osborne +66% | +72% | +75%
4. Chris Grayling +62% | +64% | +70%
5. Michael Gove +55% | +62% | +63%
6. Liam Fox +64% | +71% | +62%
7. Alan Duncan +57% | +65% | +58%
8. Lord Strathclyde +51% | +55% | +52%
9. Andrew Lansley +32% | +42% | +50%
10. Nick Herbert +44% | +45% | +49%
11. Philip Hammond +35% | +44% | +48%
12. Pauline Neville-Jones +38% | +39% | +44%
13. Dominic Grieve N/A | N/A | +40%
14. Patrick McLoughlin +20% | +33% | +35%
15. Jeremy Hunt +26% | +30% | +31%
16. Oliver Letwin +20% | +31% | +29%
17. Owen Paterson +19% | +21% | +26%
18. Andrew Mitchell +18% | +16% | +25%
19. David Willetts +22% | +23% | +22%
20. Peter Ainsworth +20% | +24% | +21%
21. Francis Maude -9% | +15% | +18%
22. Sayeeda Warsi +27% | +20% | +16%
23. Theresa May +10% | +20% | +15%
24. Cheryl Gillan +13% | +16% | +14%
25. Theresa Villers +10% | +8% | +10%
26. David Mundell -2% | +3% | +1%
27. Caroline Spelman +30% | +32% | -7%

Vote now in the ConservativeHome survey

The latest ConservativeHome survey is now live. This month, in addition to the regular questions, we ask if you are still content with the vote you made in the 2005 Conservative leadership election. We also seek your views on recent Tory statements on 'Nuts' and 'Zoo' and cinema certification. The survey is also your first opportunity to rate the new Shadow Home Secretary, Dominic Grieve.

Click here to take survey.

Apologies if you have already voted. During last week a control population was invited to take the survey. If you have voted please don't vote again. The software only allows one vote from any IP address.

Sky high ratings for David Cameron among Tory grassroots

The latest ConHome survey of members finds sky-high ratings for David Cameron:

• 93% of 1,470 members questioned were satisfied with the Tory leader;
• 97% think he is likely to be PM after the next election;
• 87% agree that the Conservative Party is on the right track.

Tory members: A reduction in crime should be main objective of next Conservative government

In the end-June survey of Conservative members we asked "On a scale of 1 to 10, where 1 is least important and 10 is most important, please rate the importance of the following objectives for the next Conservative Government."  These are the 1,470 results averaged out:

1. A reduction in crime: 8.2
2. A reduction in the burden of taxation: 8.0
3. A significant repatriation of powers from the EU: 7.7
4. Education and welfare reforms that deliver more social justice and less social breakdown: 7.7
5. Control of our borders and a large reduction in immigration: 7.7
6. A big reduction in UK borrowing: 7.6
7. A rebuilding of our armed forces: 7.6
8. A second term in office: 7.6
9. A strengthening of marriage and the family: 7.4
10. An NHS without centralised targets: 7.3
11. A fairer deal for England within the United Kingdom: 7.0
12. A settlement of the Iranian nuclear threat: 6.1
13. A cleaner environment and significant action on climate change: 5.5.