ConservativeHome's ToryDiary

Boris@1

Boris Johnson celebrates his first year as London Mayor today and most Tory members say that they are satisfied with his performance although a very large minority doubt that he is yet a credible Prime Minister in waiting:

He has made a massive impression on the public and Time magazine yesterday announced that he was one of the 100 most influential people in the world.

A ConservativeHome poll of Tory members finds that his role in the ousting of Sir Ian Blair was his most important act since replacing Ken Livingstone.

Freezing council tax, banning alcohol on the Tube, opposing a third runway at Heathrow and opposing an extension of the congestion charge also feature prominently.

In recent days Boris has announced a plan to devolve more power to local government in London.  He has also been in the newspapers for apparently wanting to be Prime Minister after he has finished at City Hall.  Last Saturday he told ConservativeHome that talk of him despising David Cameron was "tripe".  He also said that the London Mayor job was "almost certainly" his last big job in British politics.  Not many Westminster insiders believe him.

After some early difficulties with staff picks he is carving out his own brand of modern Conservatism in London.  He has annoyed traditional Tories by expressing sympathy for an amnesty for illegal immigrants but delighted others with his fierce opposition to higher taxes on London's wealth creators.

Speaking to ConservativeHome he says that his record shows that "you can cut public spending if you really want to."  He said that he was very proud of the team he was building at City Hall and that he was proving that better services could be delivered while freezing Londoners' council tax.

He said that he was most proud of the efforts that he had made in fighting crime.  London was getting safer and safer, he said, and putting more police officers on the beat and into the transport system would remain a top priority.

He issued a "massive Mayoral apology" to me after I told him that my fourth bike had been stolen - just last month.  He promised a rent-a-bike scheme soon that might solve my problem.  The environment would be a "passion" in the remainder of his term, he promised, and he hoped to make substantial progress in sponsoring Electric Cars across the capital.

Being London Mayor had so far been a "fascinating and demanding" experience.  It was the most rewarding thing he had done in his life.  He had very few frustrations although the London bureaucracy was sometimes "treacly".

"I want to stand for a second term" he said but had not taken a final, final decision.  The Tories are currently 12% ahead in London but he will be running for re-election in what is likely to be the mid-term of a Cameron government and the Tories might be unpopular across the country because of painful decisions on the budget deficit.  Boris has made a great start but re-election won't be a cakewalk.

Tim Montgomerie 

> Video library of Boris' time as Mayor

The steady rise of Philip Hammond

No big movements emerge from this month's shadow cabinet ratings although it is notable that Ken Clarke and George Osborne are both up by more than ten percentage points.  One thing that I will highlight, however, is the solid rating now given to Philip Hammond MP, Shadow Chief Secretary to the Treasury.  Political Betting's Mike Smithson spotlighted him last night too.  It's not been a spectacular rise but party members are steadily marking up Mr Hammond as each month goes by.  The Chief Secretary to the Treasury - traditionally a guardian of Treasury money - will play a vital role in the next government.  Tory members appear pleased with the man that David Cameron has given that job. 

FULL SHADOW CABINET RATINGS
Party members satisfied minus dissatisfied for September, November and December 2008 and February, March and April 2009 (latest numbers on right):

1. William Hague +82% | +85% | +73% | +72% | +76% | +80%
2. Chris Grayling +69% | +70% | +74% | +71% | +69% | +73%
3. Michael Gove +60% | +62% | +67% | +66% | +70% | +71%
4. Dominic Grieve +51% | +63% | +69% | +63% | +65% | +66%
5. Liam Fox +52% | +46% | +44% | +48% | +54% | +58%
6. Lord Strathclyde +50% | +52% | +55% | +52% | +54% | +57%
7. Philip Hammond +45% | +46% | +43% | +45% | +49% | +55%
8. George Osborne +70% | +2% | +30% | +34% | +43% | +55%
9. Eric Pickles +75% | +71% | +75% | +70% | +50% | +55%
10. Alan Duncan +55% | +55% | +57% | +49% | +50% | +53%
11. Ken Clarke N/A | N/A | N/A | +57% | +43% | +51%
12. Pauline Neville-Jones +43% | +44% | +43% | +44% | +47% | +48%
13. Andrew Lansley +45% | +43% | +42% | +39% | +44% | +44%
14. Grant Shapps N/A | N/A | N/A | +25% | +36% | +40%
15. Jeremy Hunt +33% | +39% | +36% | +33% | +37% | +39%
16. David Willetts +21% | +27% | +28% | +20% | +30% | +35%
17. Nick Herbert +44% | +45% | +42% | +32% | +33% | +34%
18. Patrick McLoughlin +33% | +26% | +28% | +26% | +30% | +30%
19. Owen Paterson +23% | +24% | +29% | +24% | +28% | +30%
20. Oliver Letwin +26% | +27% | +20% | +18% | +20% | +22%
21. Theresa Villers +4% | +19% | +17% | +19% | +20% | +22%
22. Greg Clark N/A | +23% | +15% | +18% | +24% | +20%
23. Mark Francois N/A | N/A | N/A | +8% | +21% | +20%
24. Theresa May +5% | +3% | +7% | +2% | +12% | +16%
25. Andrew Mitchell +19% | +18% | +15% | +16% | +20% | +16%
26. Cheryl Gillan +10% | +12% | +8% | +7% | +14% | +13%
27. Francis Maude +17% | +11% | +10% | +6% | +11% | +13%
28. Caroline Spelman -8% | -5% | -10% | -1% | +13% | +12%
29. Sayeeda Warsi +11% | +16% | +10% | +8% | +6% | +12%
30. David Mundell +2% | +3% | +4% | +0% | +7% | +7%

1,368 Tory members voted on 22nd and 23rd April.

Tim Montgomerie

Should the NHS, defence and international development be Tory spending priorities? How should Conservatives fight the BNP? Does Ann Widdecombe deserve a seat in the House of Lords?

These and other questions are waiting for your answers in the regular ConservativeHome survey.

Click here to have your say.

What unpopular things need to be said by the Tory leadership?

On his personal blog Jeremy Hunt MP reflected on the current anti-politician mood and wrote this:

"One of the reasons we are all considered to have our snouts in the trough is the perception that the government is acting purely from self-interested political motives (e.g. to win elections) and not being driven by a broader sense of mission as to what is right for the country... What will solve this? Only a government that deliberately does something unpopular which it knows will cost it votes but is none the less right for the country. Dealing with Britain's debt crisis perhaps?"

Jeremy is 100% right.  ConHome started a truth-telling award in February and honoured Boris Johnson for his remarks on public pensions but there aren't many other examples of politicians leading public opinion.  Even the Tories' opposition to oppose Labour's fiscal stimulus - certainly lonely and reasonably brave - was supported by a good measure of public opinion.

Here are three things I'd like the Tories to say (and then do) that will be unpopular:

1. Cut public spending. The scale of Brown's debt crisis makes this necessary and public opinion appears to support it but once the axe falls there will be huge resistance from trade unions and other vested interests.
2. Defend capitalism.  By capitalism I don't mean big business necessarily but the small businesses and inventors who will rebuild the British economy.  Defending them means opposing measures that will harm them.  A 45p tax rate, for example.
3. Putting more combat troops into Afghanistan. I suspect most readers agree with the other two of my unpopular measures but I guess not with this one.  For reasons outlined by David Cameron at last year's Party Conference ["If the Taliban come back, the terrorist training camps come back. That would mean more terrorists, more bombs and more slaughter on our streets. That is why we back our troops’ mission in Afghanistan one hundred per cent."] we can't afford to lose this first major battle of the war in terror but we are well on the way to losing it.  We need politicians who will tell a war-weary and inward-looking public that we cannot allow Afghanistan and the border regions of Pakistan to become failed states and havens for terrorists. And telling the public means telling them more than once and in imaginative, reassuring ways.

What are your unpopular things you would like the Tory leadership to say and do?

Tim Montgomerie

Tory members want George Osborne to focus on cutting spending, not raising taxes

The thin strip of clear blue water between the Government and Opposition's positions on public spending is steadily widening.  On this morning's Today programme, George Osborne's statement that "the age of excess" in public sector pay is over is another step towards the kind of hawkishness that will be necessary to clean up the Brown-Darling mess.

The latest ConHome survey of Tory members shows that a whopping 94% believe that "significant cuts in public spending are going to be necessary to restore order to the public finances."  86% agree with the ConHome line that "tax rises should only be considered after the possibilities for reductions in state spending have been exhausted."

The membership is split on the suggestion that "significant tax rises will be necessary to restore order to the public finances."  40% agree and 41% disagree.

Members are very suspicious about the 45p tax band.  82% agree that "the Government's increase in the top rate of tax to 45p will raise little or no money."  Only 36% agree that "Conservatives must support the 45p tax rate in order to avoid Labour's 'you-are-the-party-of-the-rich' attack."

There is no enthusiasm for delaying on inheritance tax.  More than three-quarters (77%) say that "the Conservatives' inheritance tax policy should remain a priority."  16% disagree.

Supply-siders will also be pleased with the fact that 74% believe that "some taxes should be cut in order to boost the economy."

Tim Montgomerie

Tory members reject the idea of a temporary cut in MPs' pay

A little while ago I recommended a 5% temporary cut in MPs' pay as a sign of moral leadership from Parliament during a time when the public sector would need to be slimmed down.

I put the idea to the grassroots in the end-March survey of the Tory grassroots but I got something of a raspberry returned to me.  Only 40% supported the measure.  Only slightly more - 41% - supported my idea of a 10% cut in ministers' pay during the same period of austerity.

Only 19% supported a "ban on Tory frontbenchers pursuing outside paid interests while in opposition" and 42% supported a "one-third reduction in MPs' own pension benefits"; something proposed by Mark Field.

More popular was a "reduction in the number of MPs to 500 from the current 650".  58% supported that reduction in the number of elected politicians.

Where there was overwhelming support was for a "root-and-branch reform of the allowances received by MPs".  A whopping 96% supported that.

Earlier this week David Cameron urged the Prime Minister to take action on MPs' allowances NOW and not put the issue to another review.  During a Five Live phone-in, the Tory leader also appeared sympathetic to the idea of MPs being fined if they misused allowances.  Over at CentreRight today, Jonathan Isaby highlights an idea from Tory councillor Ian McCord.

Tim Montgomerie

Pickles and Clarke marked down by Tory members

Pasted below are the shadow cabinet ratings for March 2009.  A few observations:

• Michael Gove is now number two in the league table; his highest placing.
• Eric Pickles has taken a hit for his Question Time performance.
• Ken Clarke has taken a smaller hit for his loose remarks on IHT.
• George Osborne continues his climb back after Yachtgate.
• Caroline Spelman moves up sharply following her close-to-clean-bill-of-health on nannygate.
• Caroline's place at the bottom of the league table is taken by Sayeeda Warsi.
  

FULL SHADOW CABINET RATINGS
Satisfied minus dissatisfied for September, November and December 2008 + February and March 2009 (latest numbers on right):

1. William Hague +82% | +85% | +73% | +72% | +76%
2. Michael Gove +60% | +62% | +67% | +66% | +70%
3. Chris Grayling +69% | +70% | +74% | +71% | +69%
   
4. Dominic Grieve +51% | +63% | +69% | +63% | +65%
   
5. Liam Fox +52% | +46% | +44% | +48% | +54%
6. Lord Strathclyde +50% | +52% | +55% | +52% | +54%
   
7. Alan Duncan +55% | +55% | +57% | +49% | +50%
8. Eric Pickles +75% | +71% | +75% | +70% | +50%
9. Philip Hammond +45% | +46% | +43% | +45% | +49%
   
10. Pauline Neville-Jones +43% | +44% | +43% | +44% | +47%
    
11. Andrew Lansley +45% | +43% | +42% | +39% | +44%
12. Ken Clarke N/A | N/A | N/A | +57% | +43%
13. George Osborne +70% | +2% | +30% | +34% | +43%
    
14. Jeremy Hunt +33% | +39% | +36% | +33% | +37%
15. Grant Shapps N/A | N/A | N/A | +25% | +36%
16. Nick Herbert +44% | +45% | +42% | +32% | +33%
17. Patrick McLoughlin +33% | +26% | +28% | +26% | +30%
18. David Willetts +21% | +27% | +28% | +20% | +30%
19. Owen Paterson +23% | +24% | +29% | +24% | +28%
20. Greg Clark N/A | +23% | +15% | +18% | +24%
21. Mark Francois N/A | N/A | N/A | +8% | +21%
22. Oliver Letwin +26% | +27% | +20% | +18% | +20%
    
23. Andrew Mitchell +19% | +18% | +15% | +16% | +20%
24. Theresa Villers +4% | +19% | +17% | +19% | +20%
25. Cheryl Gillan +10% | +12% | +8% | +7% | +14%
    
26. Caroline Spelman -8% | -5% | -10% | -1% | +13%
27. Theresa May +5% | +3% | +7% | +2% | +12%
28. Francis Maude +17% | +11% | +10% | +6% | +11%
29. David Mundell +2% | +3% | +4% | +0% | +7%
30. Sayeeda Warsi +11% | +16% | +10% | +8% | +6%

1,482 members voted from 30th March to 1st April.

87% of Conservatives members would like Dan Hannan to have prime speaking slot at Party Conference

To Eric Pickles MP, Conservative Party Chairman

Dear Eric,

Thanks for last night's drinks party and for the great crowd you gathered together.  As I was leaving I got caught up in the CS gas incident.  I couldn't quite identify the individual being pinned down by three policeman but did see at least ten police officers running down the corridor to the scene.  Something of an over-reaction?  A party to remember anyway!

But that's not the reason I'm writing to you.

We polled Tory members in our regular survey yesterday and 1,215 people have already voted.  Although the survey is still open, one result is so overwhelming I thought I'd share it with you now.

89% of those polled had watched Dan Hannan MEP's great speech attacking Gordon Brown's record.  87% agreed that Dan should get "a prime speaking slot at this autumn's Conservative Party Conference".

Members don't get much involvement in Party Conferences anymore and so close to a watershed General Election - as the next will be - the need for stage management is understandable but it would be a real treat for the grassroots to hear Dan speak from the main platform this year.  A barnstorming attack on Mr Brown from Dan - clearly a very gifted speaker - could be a great booster for the whole conference.

Could you and the Party Board make this happen?

Best wishes, Tim

Tim Montgomerie

The survey is still open on the Dan Hannan and other questions for those yet to have their say.

Should David Cameron order a temporary 5% cut in MPs' pay? Should the Tories spell out their tax plans? Would you like Dan Hannan to be your MP?

In addition to the regular questions on shadow cabinet performance this month's ConservativeHome.com survey is seeking your views on... MPs' pay and allowances... how specific the Conservative Party should be about its tax and spending plans BEFORE the election... and Dan Hannan MEP.

 Click here to have your say.

Questions for you

It's that time of the month again...

Please use the thread below to suggest question topics for the monthly ConservativeHome survey.

In addition to the regular questions on the shadow cabinet's performance I'd be particularly grateful for suggestions for questions on tax policy.  Thanks!

Tim Montgomerie

80% of party members explain Tory lead in terms of Labour failure

What is the principal reason that the Conservatives are 'back'?  It was the question I asked on Thursday and your answers are in.  1,296 voted and your answers are summarised in the wordle below (click on the image to enlarge):

Nearly 80% of you explain the Tory lead primarily in terms of Labour failure.  Economic failure being the top reason.

Here are the full numbers:

1. Labour's economic failure: 34.2%
2. The unpopularity of Gordon Brown: 19.6%
3. Labour has been in power too long: 13.4%
4. David Cameron’s message of change and leadership qualities: 11.5%
5. Labour's general failure: 11%
6. Getting rid of the things voters didn't like about the Conservatives: 2.2%
7. The strength of the Tories' 'top TV team’: 2.1%
8. Positive Tory policies on inheritance tax, Lisbon Treaty etc: 1.7%
9. The Tories' economic message that Britain is already indebted enough: 1.7%
10. The creation of a gentler, greener conservatism: 1.1%
11. The weakness of the Liberal Democrats: 0.7%
12. The strength of the party organisation: 0.5%
13. Wooing of the BBC and Guardian: 0.1%

The things that Team Cameron have done are very important - not least for determining what we do in government and the chances of that government succeeding but the vote confirms the old adage that governments lose elections more than oppositions win them.

Tory members see Sugar as most dangerous opponent for Boris in 2012

Ken Livingstone is being Ken Livingstone in an interview with the London Evening Standard.  This quotation stood out from Mr Class War:

"We should shoot one banker a week until the others improve."

He confirms he'd like to run against Boris Johnson in 2012 but Tory members see Sir Alan Sugar as a potentially more formidable Labour candidate.  This was the percentages from our recent monthly survey answering "Who do you think would be Boris' most dangerous opponent in 2012?"

• Sir Alan Sugar: 31%
• Ken Livingstone: 28%
• Trevor Phillips: 13%
• Jon Cruddas: 8%
• Oona King: 6%
• Tony McNulty: 3%
• John McDonnell: 1%

David 'Mastermind' Lammy was written in most often in the 'Other category'.

The same survey of Tory members found great optimism about Boris' re-election hopes.  76% thought it was quite likely; just 5% unlikely and the remainder saying "it's too early to tell".

I'm with the "too early to tells."  When Boris won last year the average Tory poll lead was 12.2% in the ConHome Poll of Polls.  As blogged on Sunday Boris could be facing re-election two years into a Conservative government that is making tough judgments on tax and spending.

Tim Montgomerie

> Tory members sceptical about Boris' Prime Ministerial prospects

Tory members sceptical about Boris' Prime Ministerial prospects

In the second result of our February survey of Tory members (first here) 40% of Tory members say that it's too early to say if Boris Johnson has the qualities to be PM.  The exact wording was: "Do you see Boris Johnson as a credible candidate to be Prime Minister after he has served as London Mayor?".

Of those who have decided, however, a clear majority are sceptical.  Over 70% say no.  Most of the polling was carried out before reporting of Boris Johnson's F-word outburst.

Overall, 89% of Tory members are satisfied with the Mayor's performance and just 5% dissatisfied.

For David Cameron 86% are satisfied and 12% dissatisfied.

Ken Clarke gets high rating in shadow cabinet league table

Posted below is the first shadow cabinet league table since the reshuffle. Hague is back at the summit although his rating remains down from its peak. Ken Clarke comes in at number six with 77% of Tory members satisfied with his performance and 20% dissatisfied. We have also added Grant Shapps and Mark Francois to the rating table. Both attend shadow cabinet but are not full members.

FULL SHADOW CABINET RATINGS
Satisfied minus dissatisfied for September, November and December 2008 and February 2009 (latest numbers on right):

1. William Hague +82% | +85% | +73% | +72%
2. Chris Grayling +69% | +70% | +74% | +71%
3. Eric Pickles +75% | +71% | +75% | +70%
4. Michael Gove +60% | +62% | +67% | +66%
5. Dominic Grieve +51% | +63% | +69% | +63%
6. Ken Clarke N/A | N/A | N/A | +57%
7. Lord Strathclyde +50% | +52% | +55% | +52%
8. Alan Duncan +55% | +55% | +57% | +49%
9. Liam Fox +52% | +46% | +44% | +48%
10. Philip Hammond +45% | +46% | +43% | +45%
11. Pauline Neville-Jones +43% | +44% | +43% | +44%
12. Andrew Lansley +45% | +43% | +42% | +39%
13. George Osborne +70% | +2% | +30% | +34%
14. Jeremy Hunt +33% | +39% | +36% | +33%
15. Nick Herbert +44% | +45% | +42% | +32%
16. Patrick McLoughlin +33% | +26% | +28% | +26%
17. Grant Shapps N/A | N/A | N/A | +25%
    
18. Owen Paterson +23% | +24% | +29% | +24%
19. David Willetts +21% | +27% | +28% | +20%
20. Theresa Villers +4% | +19% | +17% | +19%
21. Oliver Letwin +26% | +27% | +20% | +18%
22. Greg Clark N/A | +23% | +15% | +18%
    
23. Andrew Mitchell +19% | +18% | +15% | +16%
24. Sayeeda Warsi +11% | +16% | +10% | +8%
25. Mark Francois N/A | N/A | N/A | +8%
26. Cheryl Gillan +10% | +12% | +8% | +7%
27. Francis Maude +17% | +11% | +10% | +6%
28. Theresa May +5% | +3% | +7% | +2%
29. David Mundell +2% | +3% | +4% | +0%
30. Caroline Spelman -8% | -5% | -10% | -1%

1,440 Conservative Party members were polled from 10th to 13th February.

Is it time to put more restrictions on the right of European citizens to work in Britain?

Is Boris Prime Minister material?

What is Boris Johnson's biggest achievement so far?

Are you satisfied with Ken Clarke's performance?

These and other questions feature in the latest ConservativeHome survey of grassroots and reader opinion.

Click here to have your say.

Do you support free movement of labour across Europe?

Given the strong feelings generated by my earlier post the above question seems a good candidate for Monday's ConservativeHome poll. Grateful for advice on wording in the thread below and for suggestions of other questions...

Tim Montgomerie

Comparing the views of party members and party voters

When we publish the results of the ConservativeHome monthly polls we focus on the views of party members although non-member Tory voters and others also take part.  Far fewer 'Tory voters' (as I will call them - I know members vote too!) take part than members.  In the most recent poll, for example, 1,495 members gave their opinions but only 233 voters.  Another 319 people voted of different political affiliations and none.  The ratio of members to voters has been pretty constant since we started polling in November 2005.  This post compares some recent survey results for members and voters.

WHO SHOULD BE THE NEXT PARTY CHAIRMAN?
January 2009

• 57% of members said Eric Pickles.  43% of voters said Eric Pickles.
• 14% of members said Caroline Spelman.  14% of voters said Caroline Spelman.
• 5% of members didn't know. 10% of voters didn't know.

FULL SHADOW CABINET RATINGS
December 2008

• The top three shadow cabinet ministers for members were: Eric Pickles, Chris Grayling then William Hague.
• The top three for voters were William Hague, Eric Pickles then Chris Grayling.
• Again don't knows were generally much higher.  45% of members have no opinion, for example, of David Mundell. That rises to 61% for voters.

SATISFACTION WITH DAVID CAMERON
December 2008

• 52% of members are quite satisfied with David Cameron; 35% very satisfied.
• 40% of quite voters are satisfied; 32% very satisfied.

Who else should be in the shadow cabinet?

This word cloud - created by wordle - represents the more than 800 unprompted answers given in the latest ConHome survey to the question: "Which individual - NOT brought into the shadow cabinet - would you most like to have seen returned to the frontbench?"

You can click on the image to enlarge it.

Grassroots give a big thumbs up to the reshuffle

1,087 members voted in this survey which we put into the field at 3.30pm yesterday afternoon.

There's a big welcome for David Cameron's three biggest appointments.

The net approval for Ken Clarke's appointment is particularly interesting.  When we asked in December if members wanted Ken back we got a fairly narrow 50% to 41% 'yes vote'.  That has widened markedly now with just 22% disappointed at the decision now that it has been made.

Members are evenly divided however on the new Shadow Business Secretary's impact on the party's European policies.  37% fear that he will "block any moves towards more Euroscepticism" and 39% think he won't.

Other survey findings are very positive:

• 76% agree that "the shadow cabinet is now punchier, readier for battle";
• 75% agree that "the economic policy team is much strengthened";
• 71% agree that "Grayling, Pickles and Clarke protect the party leadership from Labour's 'Tory Toffs' attack";
• Only 26% agree that "the reshuffle shifts the party somewhat towards the Left".

Tory members are also relaxed about the Obama effect.  On a forced choice question:

• 62% agreed that "President Obama will have no big effect on British politics";
• 24% agreed that "President Obama's representation of change will help Cameron politically";
• Only 14% agreed that "President Obama's fiscal stimulus package will help Brown politically".

Are you pleased that Eric is Chairman? Has Ken's return blunted the party's Euroscepticism? Will President Obama help Brown or Cameron?

Click here to take the 'reshuffle reaction' survey.

Eric Pickles wins grassroots' confidence to be next Party Chairman

1,495 party members took part in our online survey on Wednesday and yesterday and Eric Pickles won the lion's share of support when we asked Who should be the next Party Chairman?  We offered a choice between the four most talked-about candidates for the job.

The result does not mean that, for example, Eric is three times more popular than Chris Grayling.  Last week we found that Pickles and Grayling were level-pegging in terms of overall satisfaction.  What this survey suggests is that 57% of members believes that Eric Pickles has the best mix of skills and personality to become a key face of the Conservative Party - particularly for the next General Election campaign.

I still expect Mrs Spelman to be exonerated from the nannygate inquiry.  I hope she'll stay in the shadow cabinet but I agree with members that Eric Pickles is the best candidate to be Party Chairman.  Jeremy Hunt is one of my three 'big beasts of the future'.  The speculation is that he's Cameron's choice to the next Chairman.  We'll soon know.

Tim Montgomerie

Who should be the next Party Chairman?

In the end-December survey a clear majority of party members (59%) thought that the choice of Party Chairman should be decided by members.  I worry that such a mechanism would create two potentially rival power bases in the party but putting aside my reservations I thought it would be interesting to hold our own vote on who you would like as Party Chairman.  Four people are the most likely candidates: Chris Grayling, Jeremy Hunt, Eric Pickles and Caroline Spelman.  You can vote here.

At the end of the survey you will be invited to make a donation to ConservativeHome.  Any monies received will be used to help pay the costs of running these surveys, for new computer equipment and for some political attack videos that we are planning.  I would greatly appreciate any help you can give.

Tim Montgomerie

You want an alternative to Heathrow, an elected Party Chairman, to go back to the seaside...

...but you don't want an English Parliament or a disestablished Church.

The final results of our end-December survey are summarised below:

1,816 Tory members were surveyed from 22nd to 28th December.

High marks for Grayling and Pickles reflect grassroots' expectations of shadow cabinet

Posted below are the latest numbers for grassroots satisfaction with the shadow cabinet.  Most notable is the fall in satisfaction with William Hague.  He still remains in third place but Eric Pickles is now the shadow cabinet member with the highest overall satisfaction rating.  86% of members are satisfied and just 11% dissatisfied.  He leads the hard-working Chris Grayling by just 1%.  These ratings for Pickles and Grayling are a clear sign that the party membership expects industry from the frontbench.

William Hague's 12% drop may have been a consequence of the pre-Christmas story that he was determined to continue pursuing his outside interests despite reports of pressure from the leadership for a fuller commitment.

Our survey also asked if members agreed that 'David Cameron needs to order his shadow cabinet to work harder'.  73% agreed with just 15% disagreeing.

George Osborne recovers a good deal of his rating after slumping in November.  62% of members now say they were satisfied with the Shadow Chancellor and 32% dissatisfied.

FULL SHADOW CABINET RATINGS
Satisfied minus dissatisfied for September, November and December 2008 (latest numbers on right)

1. Eric Pickles +75% | +71% | +75%
2. Chris Grayling +69% | +70% | +74%
3. William Hague +82% | +85% | +73%
4. Dominic Grieve +51% | +63% | +69%
5. Michael Gove +60% | +62% | +67%
6. Alan Duncan +55% | +55% | +57% (see yesterday's ToryDiary)
7. Lord Strathclyde +50% | +52% | +55%
8. Liam Fox +52% | +46% | +44%
9. Philip Hammond +45% | +46% | +43%
10. Pauline Neville-Jones +43% | +44% | +43%
11. Nick Herbert +44% | +45% | +42%
12. Andrew Lansley +45% | +43% | +42%
13. Jeremy Hunt +33% | +39% | +36%
14. George Osborne +70% | +2% | +30%
15. Owen Paterson +23% | +24% | +29%
16. Patrick McLoughlin +33% | +26% | +28%
17. David Willetts +21% | +27% | +28%
18. Oliver Letwin +26% | +27% | +20%
19. Theresa Villers +4% | +19% | +17%
20. Greg Clark N/A | +23% | +15%
    
21. Andrew Mitchell +19% | +18% | +15%
22. Peter Ainsworth +18% | +21% | +11%
23. Francis Maude +17% | +11% | +10%
24. Sayeeda Warsi +11% | +16% | +10%
25. Cheryl Gillan +10% | +12% | +8%
26. Theresa May +5% | +3% | +7%
27. David Mundell +2% | +3% | +4%
28. Caroline Spelman -8% | -5% | -10%

1,816 party members were surveyed from 22nd to 28th December.

Tory members say Defence should be top public spending priority

From 22nd to 28th December 1,816 Tory members told us their highest and lowest priorities for twelve calls on public spending identified by ConservativeHome. The two graphics below summarise the findings (click on either to enlarge):

HIGHEST PRIORITY FOR PUBLIC SPENDING

LOWEST PRIORITY FOR PUBLIC SPENDING

We asked the two relevant shadow cabinet members - Liam Fox for Defence (members' highest spending priority - not for the first time) and Jeremy Hunt for Culture, Media and Sport (members' lowest priority) for their reactions:

Dr Liam Fox:

"ConservativeHome readers clearly understand what Gordon Brown's government fails to- namely that national security is the first duty of any British government. It is worth noting that while President Sarkozy was announcing a 2 billion euro boost to defence spending as part of his economic stimulus, Britain's Labour government were announcing delays to major programmes such as the carriers. Not only has Labour failed to live up to its part of the Military Covenant and failed to fully fund our involvement in Iraq and Afghanistan but they will leave behind a huge unfunded liability in defence procurement for future taxpayers. No one knows how catastrophic Brown's economic legacy will be but picking up the pieces in defence will be one of the most difficult challenges for the next government."

Jeremy Hunt:

"Spending at the disposal of the department of culture, media and sport amounts to less than half of one percent of all government spending. That means the potential to make a large impact on government spending as a whole is limited. That said, all government departments - big and small - need to tighten their belts in the current climate and that of course includes DCMS."

ConservativeHome comment: "The public spending priorities of Tory members are largely very sensible.  The first duty of any government is defence of the Realm and law and order at home.  There is no ambition amongst grassroots members for cuts in education and health and there is also a concern to invest in infrastructure spending.  Where members are wrong is, I think, in the low priority they attach to international development.  Maintaining international development spending is not just the morally correct course - in an age when so many are dying of treatable and preventable diseases - it is also an essential part of any national security agenda.  While trade liberalisation and private investment are more important to prevent failed states George W Bush has shown in sub-Saharan Africa, in particular, that well targeted aid can save hundreds of thousands of lives.  Britain's aid budget could be better spent - and Andrew Mitchell is right to promise a diversion of aid from nations like China towards the poorest nations - but we should not trim a budget that is already worth £334m less because of the sharp decline in the pound.   

Tim Montgomerie

> Five days ago we published the views of Tory members on appropriate public sector economies.
> Stephen Crabb MP's case for maintaining development spending.