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David Davis: I return to the Commons with a mandate to fight Gordon Brown's vision of Big Brother Britain

David Davis won his by-election with a majority of 15,355 and on a turnout of 34%. These two quotes from his speech at the by-election count were recorded by The Telegraph:

David Davis claims he has transformed public opinion during the period of his campaign: "Today the people of Haltemprice and Howden have delivered a stunning - a stunning - message to the Government, and our campaign has reverberated across the country. Four weeks ago as Gordon Brown stooped into the gutter to rig the vote on 42 days, ministers crowed that 69% of people voted 42 days. Today just 36 per cent supported it.  Four weeks ago the Government touted public support for a range of other draconian measures.  Today 71 per cent support my stand against the attacks on British liberty."

On his return to the Commons: "I do so with a clear mandate, to fight Gordon Brown's vision of Big Brother Britain tooth and nail, to stop 42 days in its tracks, to prevent the disaster of ID cards before it happens, to protect our personal privacy from being ransacked by the ever-intrusive state.  But most of all for the thousands upon thousands that have written to me, supported me, and voted for me, I return to fight for those fundamental freedoms that define our way of life - freedoms that millions died defending, freedoms that make Britain great."

BBC video of a post-count interview with David Davis in which he claims the turnout was "spectacular".

9am: David Cameron congratulates Mr Davis on his "brave" stand and says that public support for 42 days is "draining away".

9.30am: PoliticsHome has transcribed highlights of DD's Today programme interview.

11.15am: "Conservative heavyweight David Davis is 10/1 for a return to the shadow cabinet before the end of the year, following his Haltemprice and Howden by-election victory," says Ladbrokes.

Noon: Video of DD's victory speech

Was it worth it?

Some bloggers made a lot of an ICM survey yesterday that showed much greater public sympathy for David Davis' position on 42 days than we had seen in previous polls.  But as Anthony Wells of UK Polling Report has noted, the ICM poll asked a very different style of question to earlier YouGov polls and the ICM poll could be criticised for leading the respondents.  A much better way of judging whether public opinion has shifted during the course of Mr Davis' by-election campaign is to compare like-for-like polls.  PoliticsHome.com has done that with its PHI5000 poll and found no shift in public opinion:

"PoliticsHome has twice asked the PHI 5000: "do you support or oppose extending the period that terrorist suspects can be held without charge from 28 days to 42?" On the 20th June, 65% supported the extension and 31% opposed. On the 7th July, 66% supported 42 days and 30% opposed it."

The voters of Haltemprice & Howden go to the polls today - at least Mr Davis hopes they will.  There are fears, according to The Telegraph, that turnout may be "humiliatingly" low.  Tory MPs who have been to the seat - and many have - return with stories of a divided Conservative Association - unhappy at the estimated £200,000 cost of the by-election campaign and disappointed that their MP is no longer set to be Home Secretary.

As we reported last week, most Conservative Party members across the country also regret David Davis' decision to quit the frontbench although most also believe he will influence public opinion on civil liberties.  That is David Davis' best long-term bet.  Like IDS' commitment to turn the Conservative Party into a party of social justice - what we call 'realignment' - Mr Davis will only succeed by keeping at this task for many years.  One of the real things that the ICM poll did show is that the public are more open to the civil libertarian argument when it is framed in certain ways.  The concern for the civil libertarians is that the public mood is likely to change markedly against them if, God forbid, there are a number of terrorist incidents.

Massive victory for Conservatives in Henley, Labour come fifth

On Gordon Brown's first anniversary as PM Labour come fifth in Henley - behind the British National Party and the Greens.  Labour also lost its deposit.

The Conservatives have a new MP - John Howell, pictured above, with Chris Grayling MP just in the background.

The Conservatives won a majority of 10,116 over the LibDems.

The Conservative share of the vote (57%) actually went up.

The LibDems (28%) tried to run a negative campaign but it failed.  Their by-election machine will need an overhaul after this.

Many congratulations to Dr Howell and the whole Tory campaign team.

> ConservativeHome's reports on the Henley campaign.

2.30am: Full results (from The Times)

1. John Howell (C) 19,796 (57%, +3.5%)
2. Stephen Kearney (LD) 9,680 (28%, +1.8%)
3. Mark Stevenson (Green) 1,321 (3.8%, +0.5%)
4. Timothy Rait (BNP) 1,243 (3.6%)
5. Richard McKenzie (Lab) 1,066 (3.1%, -11.7%)
6. Chris Adams (UKIP) 843 (2.4%, -0.1%)
7. Bananaman Owen (Loony) 242 (0.70%)
8. Derek Allpass (Eng Dem) 157 (0.45%)

C maj 10,116 (29.1%), 0.81% swing LD to C

Turnout 34,761 (50.3%, -17.6%)

3am: Lord Rennard - architect of the negative and unsuccessful LibDem campaign - cuts a lonely figure in the deserted hall where the result was declared:

The future of the Davis-Cameron relationship

It's been a week since David Davis stunned the Westminster village and delighted the public with his decision to resign his seat and fight a by-election on his fears that Britain was becoming a surveillance society.

In his politics column for this week's Spectator, Fraser Nelson suggests that Mr Davis' resignation had more to do with wider concerns with the Cameron project:

"At a dinner party in central London a few months ago, David Davis made an extraordinary confession. He had become disenchanted with David Cameron, he said, and was considering quitting politics. ‘I believe in certain things,’ he said, ‘and I do not believe the next Conservative government will implement them'...

So many theories abound about Mr Davis’s ‘real’ intentions that the most damaging possible explanation — a loss of faith in Mr Cameron — has hardly been mentioned. Their differences over issues such as tax, grammar schools and defence spending are hardly a secret, having been extensively aired during the leadership contest. They were also said to disagree over Mr Cameron’s plans for locally elected police chiefs — Mr Davis asking what a home secretary would have left to do if policing was devolved. Mr Davis ferociously denies any such splits, but anecdotal evidence to the contrary has been accumulating for some time."

There is probably some truth to the idea that there were/ are differences between David Davis and David Cameron but it's now important to ensure that those differences are as well managed now that Mr Davis is outside the shadow cabinet as they were when he was a member of it.

In recent days some shadow cabinet ministers have been privately briefing against David Davis.  David Cameron must communicate that this is unacceptable.  It's important that a good number of senior frontbenchers - Mr Cameron included - campaign alongside David Davis in Haltemprice and Howden.

There is also a need for David Cameron and George Osborne to address some of David Davis' concerns.  Sat on large opinion poll leads there is a temptation for the Conservative leadership to eschew radicalism but David Davis' desire for the party to be bolder on tax and defence is not only shared by the majority of Conservative members - and increasingly by voters at large - but is right for the economy and country.  As Tim Montgomerie, Editor of ConservativeHome, argues in today's Daily Telegraph, a movement away from Labour's spending plans is essential if the Conservatives are to stop the flight of businesses from Britain and in order to fund the kind of tax reform that could see the party connect with the millions of low-paid workers that Labour has failed. 

> David Davis seeks Labour votes in video interview for LabourHome website

Poll says Davis would crush Kelvin MacKenzie

If voters across the country are suspicious of David Davis' motives his constituents are very supportive.  A poll for the Mail on Sunday - by ICM - of 501 voters in his Haltemprice and Howden seat finds that 57% support his decision to hold a by-election.  69% agree that Mr Davis' actions have been principled.  Support is even higher amongst local Conservatives.  The poll points to an easy victory for Mr Davis.

The Mail on Sunday reveals other boosts to Mr Davis' campaign:

(1) "Sun owner Rupert Murdoch disowned Mr MacKenzie’s campaign after he insulted ‘shocking’ Hull."  Mr MacKenzie is said to be having second thoughts after Rupert Murdoch's decision.  The same ICM poll suggests that he'd be trounced 67% to 14% in any by-election.

(2) "The chairman of the pressure group Liberty, Shami Chakrabarti, praised Mr Davis – and is to help a ‘Celebrities for Davis’ operation."  Ms Chakrabarti writes for The Mail on Sunday in support of Mr Davis.

(3) "Labour rebel Bob Marshall-Andrews and other Left-wing MPs will support Mr Davis in the election."   The Observer has more on Mr Marshall-Andrews' willingness to defy Gordon Brown and campaign for Mr Davis.  Labour's Ian Gibson MP is also reported to be willing to help.

But if Mr Davis' campaign has enjoyed a good start his reputation with colleagues is under strain.  Nicholas Soames MP tells The Sunday Times:

"Words cannot express how foolish he has been... Politics is at all times a team game.  Reliability is all in politics."

David Davis to resign to force by-election on 42 days

This is an unconfirmed but well-founded rumour but David Davis, Shadow Home Secretary, is to resign his seat to highlight the issue of 42 days.  More as we get it...

1.45pm: We'll now attempt to catch up with this extraordinary story; the ConHome team were having a fish'n'chip lunch when it broke!  Dominic Grieve is the new Shadow Home Secretary.

1.50pm: LibDems won't oppose David Davis.

Mr Davis will stand as an independent a Conservative Party candidate, but without the backing of CCHQ.

Simon Chapman has been blogging about developments at CentreRight: "I cannot see an up-side for the Conservative Party in this. This can only be seen as a challenge to David Cameron. Why has he done this? Why now? Why did his job not give him a sufficient platform to make the case he wanted to? Why has he decided that he needed to resign to campaign on the erosion of civil liberties and on 42 days, when he was the Party's spokesman on those issues? No doubt we will find out more soon, but my current emotion is utter dismay. It suggests that DD believes the Party does not share his commitment - why else resign?"

1.53pm: David Cameron's statement:

“This is a personal decision for David Davis. He is a friend and colleague and I will be happy to campaign for him in his constituency.  I pay tribute to the campaign he has been waging on behalf of the Party on 42 days.  But we cannot put Home Affairs on pause and it is my job to ensure that we have a team that’s ready for Government.  We remain fully committed to our opposition to 42 days and the new Shadow Home Secretary Dominic Grieve will step up our efforts to fight against it in Parliament.”

Dominic Grieve, new Shadow Home Secretary, said: “I fully understand David’s brave stand and I am honoured to take up this appointment. It has been a privilege to work with him in fighting 42 days. I look forward to continuing the Party’s campaign against 42 days pre- charge detention in Parliament, as I have been doing throughout in my role as Shadow Attorney General.”

2.25pm: Download PDF of full statement by David Davis

2.35pm: Taking a second look at the statement it is amazing that The Speaker wouldn't allow DD to make it in the House.  Another bad day for Mr Martin.

2.55pm Nick Robinson: "David Cameron has lost control of his strategy. This was not his decision. He was not asked for his agreement. He was informed late last night by David Davis that he was going to do this come what may. That he was going to resign and trigger this campaign. This is not a campaign that Mr Cameron wants, it is not part of his strategy and indeed, I am told by senior Tories who know Mr Cameron well, that this was David Davis' personal decision and will be his personal campaign."

2.55pm Andy McSmith: "The risk is that his campaign will fade into a monumental irrelevance, and he will be returned on a low turn out as the voters in Haltemprice and Howden wonder why they are being dragged to the polls to no effect."

3pm: Bookmakers William Hill has a surprising perspective on this news. They've lengthened Davis' odds of becoming leader from 4/1 to 14/1, the same level as Grieve, because: "It is difficult to see how David Davis could have done anything other than damage his prospects of becoming his Party's next leader by embarrassing them in this way"

3.10pm: The transcript of Davis' announcement has been posted on CommentIsFree

Stephen Gilbert and Crewe's other heroes

"Bloody great campaign big man! You never let me down"

David Cameron was overheard saying those words to the great Eric Pickles during the Conservative leader's celebration of victory earlier today.  Eric has emerged from 1st May and from the C&N by-election as a Tory superstar and deservedly so.  In today's early hours straw poll of ConHome by-election bloggers, more than 80% hoped that he'd be Party Chairman in the not-too-distant future.   But Eric would be the first to pay tribute to the behind-the-scenes work of Stephen Gilbert and the target seats team.  If anyone deserves a gold medal for Crewe it is Stephen - circled below as he and colleagues heard Edward Timpson's historic victory declared:

Stephen Gilbert was in Crewe and Nantwich from the morning of 2nd May and his early leaflets were decisive in framing the contest as a straight two-horse race between blue and red.  He took the whole of Lord Ashcroft's marginal seats team up to C&N with him.  There was no need to build a special team - the team already knew each other and gelled.  David Mackintosh secured the geographically strategic premises and made everything happen on time.  Stephen Gilbert's other key aides, Stephen Phillips and Stephen Parkinson also deserve a free drink when you bump into them next.  Make that a few free drinks.

Alan Sendorek ably handled the media throughout the campaign.  He was assisted in the final week by George Eustice, who had been drafting literature throughout the campaign and coordinating the softer, feature-style journalism.

Nick Timothy of the Research Department helped to identify the messages on 10p, cost of living and crime that the party's excellent literature then communicated.

Four MPs deserve special credit:

(1) and (2) William Hague and George Osborne - two northern MPs who were constantly on the campaign trail.
(3) Angela Browning, the candidate's minder.
(4) Michael Fabricant, who coordinated the massive involvement of MPs in the whole effort.

Michael Fabricant was most assisted by a 'Magnificent Seven' MPs who worked alongside professional agents in each of the seven 'battle sectors'.  They're all pictured on the right (with Liam Fox whose brilliant BBC performance has been praised by Iain Dale): Stephen O'Brien, Graham Brady, Philip Dunne, Robert Goodwill, Ben Wallace, Daniel Kawcyzinski and shadow cabinet minister Owen Paterson.

And a final tribute to local Chairman Donald Potter.  Sometimes in by elections you end up with tensions between the local association and the central campaign team - and it is testament to his skills that the staff and local association worked together seamlessly.  He was calm, constructive, added local knowledge to all that the campaign team did.  Chairman of the Association for eighteen lean years he made sure that canvassing was never neglected and that gave the campaign a tremendous head start.  He has a special reason to savour victory.

Who have we forgotten?  The party's unsung agents.  The hundreds of volunteers who gave up holiday, sleep and overtime.  Great work everyone.

David Cameron: New Labour died on the streets of Crewe and Nantwich

A few minutes ago David Cameron gave a victory speech to Conservative supporters in Crewe and Nantwich.  Here are his key messages (not verbatim):

• The men in top hats are gone!  Labour threw everything at Edward Timpson but they failed.
• Labour fought the most xenophobic, class war-rooted, backward-looking, negative, divisive campaign and it failed.  They showed that they were no longer the party of aspiration.  New Labour died on the streets of Crewe and Nantwich.
• Voters didn't stay at home, didn't vote Labour, didn't vote LibDem - they voted Conservative.
• But we will not give one hint of triumphalism or complacency.  A by-election isn't a General Election.  People have given us trust and we now need to earn it.
• We must build the biggest coalition of change; something different, something bigger.  We must end the era of top-down, bossy, high-taxing and wasting government.

Crewe and Nantwich in figures

Please click on graphic to enlarge:

Crewe's Control: Live blog

Screen captures from BBC's coverage of the result:

12.30pm: Tory majority will be over 6,000 according to impeccable sources. Turnout confirmed at 58.2%

11.55pm: Great quote from Andrew Sparrow at The Guardian: "Pickles should look cheerful, but he doesn't.  "I've been up since 4 o'clock," he explains when I ask why. "For politicians, elections are like a combination of Christmas Day and root canal surgery.""

11.42pm: Reminder to read Jonathan Isaby's twittering from the count. Lots of good observations from him.

11.30pm: WE ARE CONFIDENT THAT CREWE & NANTWICH IS A TORY GAIN. WE EXPECT A 'SUBSTANTIAL' TORY MAJORITY. PERMISSION GRANTED TO CRACK OPEN THE CHAMPAGNE.

10.40pm: Graeme Archer has just posted on CentreRight about Tamsin Dunwoody standing as the Labour candidate when she could/ should have been grieving. 

10.30pm: Trouble for the Monster Loonies...

9pm: For context this graph (from The Telegraph's by-election HQ site) is useful.  Three Line Whip's Jonathan Isaby will be 'twittering' from the count from 10pm.

8.40pm: Labour sources are telling Benedict Brogan that the Conservative majority could be as high as 7,000!  A Conservative source is saying that may be a bit much.  Mr B also reveals that David Cameron is having an early night but will be woken with the result...

7.50pm: O/T but have you seen this?: "The European Parliament and the European Commission have bought the former Tory headquarters near the Houses of Parliament for £20m."

7.30pm: Nigel Fletcher captured this photo of a Tory activist with LibDem MP Simon Hughes.  Is this the new stage of lovebombing?

Welcome to our rolling coverage of the countdown to the result of the Crewe by-election.  We'll be setting up a live chatroom later but will be blogging regularly within this post for the next few hours.

Sam Coates of The Times (not THE Sam Coates), has already recorded one dirty Labour trick of the day.  We've just heard of another.  Some Labour activist, wearing a Panama hat, has been swanning around Crewe all day in an open top car trailing blue balloons.  Pathetic.

Plus two photos from earlier today: Top is a photo of four MPs - Alistair Burt, Mart Francois, Stewart Jackson and Daniel Kawczynski.  The fifth guy is Andrew Griffiths; Eric Pickles' chief of staff and, we hope, the next MP for Burton.  Below that is the number of poster sites that have been actioned by the campaign.  1,134 is a record by some margin.  Also: Don't miss our earlier reports on the gingerbread men poll and news of the 4am GOTV effort.

Gwyneth Dunwoody has died

Labour MP Gwyneth Dunwoody has died.  She will be missed by all sides of the House.  She was the longest-serving female MP and fiercely proud of her Labour identity but also her independence of her party's leadership.  She was often a strong critic of Tony Blair and Mr Blair suffered his biggest-ever rebellion when he tried to end her chairmanship of the Commons' Transport Select Committee.

Lots of politicians have paid tribute to Ms Dunwoody but her son's words are most powerful:

"She defended people who didn't have anyone else to defend them."

She created many headaches for Labour during her life and her death creates a new one for Mr Brown.  Her Crewe and Nantwich seat has a projected majority of 7,494 over the Conservatives.   That's a majority that would probably be too much of an ask at a General Election but in current circumstances the seat may be vulnerable.  During Blair's rise in the 1990s Labour was certainly overturning larger Conservative majorities.

In normal by-election procedures the Conservative Party would intensively manage a selection process but our candidate is already in place; Edward Timpson of the shoe family has been in place for nearly a year.

9.45am: Commenting on the death of Gwyneth Dunwoody David Cameron, Leader of the Conservative Party, said: “I was saddened to hear about the death of Gwyneth Dunwoody. She was courageous in her political beliefs and an inspiration to many. Her defiance and willingness to stand up to the establishment was truly admirable. She will be a sad loss to the House of Commons.”

11.30am: Tribute from David Lidington MP

2.15pm: Nadine Dorries MP's tribute

The papers on the Ealing result

The Telegraph points out that the week before polling "the Cameron high command insisted the party was on course for victory" in Ealing. Perhaps this misplaced confidence is the source of David Cameron's woes today. Many people were led to believe that victory was possible, even likely, so our third place was a bitter, and unexpected, disappointment.

The Daily Mail and Simon Heffer in the Telegraph blame CCHQ's selection of Tony Lit, Heffer saying "Short of being a lesbian heading a one-parent family, Tony Lit, the very defeated candidate in the Ealing by-election, had everything Dave has always wanted for "his" Conservatives."   

Other papers were focussing on concerns over the direction of Project Cameron. The Telegraph leader is supportive of "changes in the Conservative Party that will enhance its prospects of getting elected" but warns "rebranding and re-energising should not mean neglecting to oppose bad policies." It says:

"The party urgently needs to reset its co-ordinates, even at the price of fierce internal debate; and the only person who can do that is its leader. The instinct that told Mr Cameron - correctly - that the Tories were projecting themselves to the nation as moralistic bigots should now inform him that they are coming across as soft and complacent, just at a time when we are attracted to Mr Brown for his lack of glib style."

This theme is picked up by Matthew Parris in the Times who argues, as ConservativeHome has done, for the need for authenticity. We must hope that the "instinct" that the Telegraph refers to will lead David Cameron in this direction.

***

For those who were thinking that the by-elections were only bad news for us Martin Kettle in the Guardian suggests Brown will be paying particularly close attention to the Sedgefield result which showed that the Labour vote is not (yet) coming home.

The Evening Standard on the Ealing result

Although the Evening Standard headlines its coverage of the Ealing Southall By-election with "Body blow for Cameron at the polls" its editorial is less dramatic. It calls the result "a big disappointment for the Conservatives" but says "This has to be considered a negative verdict on the Tories's controversial candidate Tony Lit" noting that the "photograph of him with a smiling Tony Blair cannot have impressed Southall voters".

The Standard highlights the disappointment of the Lib Dems who have failed, for the first time since 1990, to win a seat in a by-election where they started in second place after the governing party.

But it says the lessons are for the Conservative Party:

"Discontented activists will treat the result as a negative verdict on Mr Cameron's approach and put pressure on him to return to the traditional Right-wing territory of crime and immigration. But it is not clear that such an approach would have helped in one of Britain's most diverse constituencies, where about half the population is of Asian origin, along with all the major party candidates. Mr Cameron must hold his nerve and resist siren calls from traditionalists."

The Ealing gamble

Without adequate involvement of the local Association, CCHQ imposed Tony Lit as the party's Ealing Southall candidate.  ConservativeHome received a number of complaints from local Tories at the time about CCHQ's gamble of embracing someone with little connection to the Conservative Party in the hope that it would end Brown's honeymoon.  We did not realise how slight Mr Lit's connection with the Conservative Party was until last Sunday when that day's newspaper's were filled with pictures of him and stories of his £4,800 corporate gift to Tony Blair.  I did not want to jeopardise our chances in the election and chose not to editorialise at the time.  In the interests of the party I hoped that CCHQ knew what it was doing.  When a number of Labour councillors defected one week earlier the Lit gamble had looked promising.  Today the only silver lining of the Ealing result is that LibDem MPs have not got a ready excuse to oust Menzies Campbell.

The Ealing gamble failed.  What of the bigger gamble at the heart of Project Cameron?

Again and again many traditional supporters believe that David Cameron has gambled with our party's values.  I think of the quota-based A-list.  The stop on more grammar schools.  Green taxes.  An effective withdrawal of support for nuclear power.  The ending of any serious commitment to NHS reform.  The downgrading of the transatlantic alliance.  The installation of a community cohesion spokesman with highly questionable views.  Most Conservatives were willing to swallow these things in the hope of them delivering victory at the next election.  With that victory would come the opportunity to introduce the many good things that a Cameron government would bring.  A borders police force.  Support for marriage.  More prisons.  A referendum on the EU Treaty.  More localism.

One question must now be uppermost in Team Cameron's thinking:

Are the headline changes associated with Project Cameron encouraging voters to see the party as more moderate and more in tune with the times (Team Cameron's hope) or are voters seeing the Project as open to embracing any person or idea in the pursuit of electoral advantage? 

I have said before that authenticity is now the number one issue for the party.  We need to prove that David Cameron is strong, serious and substantial.  That he is more than a politician with good PR skills.  That he shares the values of ordinary people.  That he most certainly isn't the 'Sham Cam' that he was dubbed in last week's News of the World.

Live blog on Sedgefield and Ealing Southall by-election results

3.45am: CCHQ statement: "It is usual for the party that starts in third place to end up being squeezed out of contention but in Ealing Southall, not only did Tony Lit maintain our proportion of the vote, he increased it too. During the campaign, five Labour Councillors recognised that the Conservative Party is the Party that represents modern Britain and opted to join us, meaning we now have a solid base in Southall for the first time since the 1920s. Labour’s majority in Ealing Southall has been cut in half and this is the first time the Liberal Democrats have failed to win at a Parliamentary by-election from starting in second place since 1989."

2.40am: Tories confirmed as third-placed in Ealing by the BBC: "Thursday's by-election saw Labour take 15,188 votes, the Lib Dems 10,118 and the Conservatives 8,230."

2am: Labour hold Sedgefield and LibDems overtake Tories to win second place - BBC

11.50pm: LibDems are claiming that the Tories are third in both by-elections. LibDem campaign manager Chris Rennard told PA: "It looks as though Tories are third in both Sedgefield and Ealing Southall. We are confident they are in third place. That is abject humiliation for David Cameron's Conservatives. In Ealing they have made no progress on the last election and in Sedgefield they have slipped into third place."

Francis Maude MP: What are the lessons from Bromley?

"Yes, we won Bromley and Chislehurst, and winning is better than losing.  But I'm not going to prance around Hazel Blears-style saying: "of course the real story is Labour meltdown etc etc".  We'll take it on the chin and accept that however bad it was for Labour last night, it was a disappointing result for us.  There was a strong movement to the LibDems just in the last few days, and we didn't pick it up properly.  We need to learn the lessons now, and I'm asking for Conservativehomebodies to help.  Loads of you will have been to Bromley to help and I'd really like the feedback.  I've read the thread on Tory Diary and there's a lot of good thoughts there.  We're most interested in the practical lessons, rather than speculation about e.g. whether the Conservative traditionalist vote stayed at home (no, as far as we can tell, but we'll revisit to find out).

So save the armchair diatribes for another day...there'll be plenty of opportunity!  Thoughts please on:

-  Candidate selection - not Bob's merits or otherwise.  He's a really dedicated Conservative who did everything asked of him and maintained his dignity in the face of a really nasty personal campaign, and he'll be a great MP.  But what more can we do at selection stage to ensure that the tiresome and completely bogus stories about a row between Association and CCHQ could have been avoided?

-  Literature.  Style, message, volume?

-  Reacting to the LibDem assault.  Did anyone foresee that Bob being on the health board could be portrayed as a negative?  If you're serving as a school governor for example it's normally seen as a positive, isn't it? 

-  Should we keep strictly to only positive campaigning, in the face of this kind of LibDem campaign? (I'll need a lot of persuading that we shouldn't!)

-  Organisation?  Media?  Anything else? 

Thanks for this.  I look forward to getting the feedback.

Francis."

The Tories need a new campaigns director

Here's a very good piece by The Times' Greg Hurst on the tactics used by Ming's minions in yesterday's Bromley by-election.  The LibDems ruthlessly portrayed Bob Neill as a career politician and outsider (because of his Docklands home):

"Having settled on their message, the Lib Dems used their particular strength to disseminate it: hundreds of thousands of leaflets were delivered by an army of volunteers who flooded to Bromley and Chislehurst from all quarters of the country. In the final days of the campaign the Lib Dem headquarters on Bromley’s main shopping street was thronging with Lib Dem leafleteers.  Residents, and even rival political parties, marvelled at the volume of Lib Dem literature delivered in such a short space of time: skilfully designed tabloid newspapers, glossy brochures, newsletters, even a magazine style compendium including pictures of their candidate Ben Abbotts as a baby. This last publication had a mock Post-it note on the cover as though delivered from a friend or well-wisher."

Yes, the LibDems did play dirty but they were also stronger organisationally and tactically than the Conservatives.  Attacking the negativity of the LibDems must not hide the need for a major overhaul of the Tory campaigning effort.  But how many times has this been said before?  Iain Dale believes that the party needs a dedicated director of campaigning.  Does anyone have any recommendations for who that could be?

'Dirty' LibDems nearly win Bromley and Chislehurst

Yesterday's by-election results make grim reading for the Tories and particularly Labour.  Labour failed to win back a heartland constituency and the Tories came within a few hundred votes of losing one of our safest seats.

What are the learning points?  Here are my suggestions:

1. There is no need for panic.  This was a disappointing result for the Conservatives but let's put this into context... A YouGov poll for today's Telegraph puts the party at 39% (6% ahead of Labour).  The poll also finds that (a) "Labour and the Conservatives are now level-pegging at 31 per cent on the key question of which is the best party to manage the economy" and (b) Mr Cameron has "become the first of five successive Tory leaders to be more popular than Tony Blair".  Cameroons can complain that the Conservative leader hardly featured in the election literature put out by B&C Tories. 
2. The LibDems continue to be better at by-elections than us. ...and they still fight very dirty (see here and here) - as highlighted by Bob Neill (MP) in his victory speech.  A local candidate was not enough to protect us from the LibDem ability to target resources so effectively on by-elections.  CCHQ needs to understand what went wrong with the campaign.  We need to be stronger for the next by-election when we might be defending a smaller majority or, more likely, our opportunity is to win a Labour seat.
3. Beware the right flank. UKIP received 2,347 votes (beating Labour into fourth place).   It was not an exceptional performance for UKIP but it was a sign that some Conservative voters were unhappy with Bob Neill's pro-European views and that UKIP's strategic message on immigration (linked to promises of tax cuts and public reform) will peel away some Tory voters if David Cameron ignores these issues.  This may be enough to stop us winning certain seats.
4. Labour are in trouble.  Despite the high hopes of LabourHome (here and here) Labour had another terrible night.  Will some Labour MPs be on the airwaves by lunchtime calling for Blair to go?  Welsh Labour will be particularly disappointed at failing to win the Assembly seat for Blaenau Gwent as it could have restored a slender governing majority in Cardiff.
5. Independents are difficult to budge.  One lesson of Blaenau Gwent (and Wyre Forest) is that voters are happy to elect independents in the right circumstances and then re-elect them.  That, to a great extent, has been the success of the LibDems' style of local campaign.  All partisan incumbents are vulnerable to strong independent campaigns.