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As i see it the game seems to be over for Labour, but beware ! Labour will fight dirty
and to last drop of blood.

Here in Sweden there was similar smear scandal against the then - opposition leader Fredrik Reinfeldt but it did not work and the Social Democarts were booted from office.

Let us hope the same happens in the United Kingdom too !

Personally I am astonished that nearly one fifth of people still expect Labour to get a majority

People are thick. Nuff said.

Then why don't they vote for us in local elections ?

You don't really think everyone tells the truth in these things do you?

It would be disloyal for tribal labour voters to say anything other than they expect labour to win.

I heard elsewhere that something like 5% of voters said they thought the LibDems would have a majority?!?!

It maybe what they said, and it may be what they said that they thought, but did they *really* think that - I rather doubt it...

It would be disloyal for tribal labour voters to say anything other than they expect labour to win.

That's as maybe but are you seriously suggesting in an anonymous poll anyone is going to find out? I think that even the most ardent party supporter can read the writing on the wall when it is there.

Great. The end of the era of Brown and the era of incompetence comes one step closer.

The 20% most staunch Labour voters will always expect (or hope for) a Labour majority, which explains those figures.

Actually I think the public are wrong: there's a much higher likelihood of a hung parliament then they think, but that's because they don't understand about the fact that the Tories need to be 10% ahead just to win a majority of one seat on a uniform swing. Most of the public will think that a Tory lead of 5% would be enough for them to win a majority.

Cameron should call a vote of no confidence, thereby either forcing labour mps to back Brown and make sure he leads them to defeat, or forcing a split in which case we would win the vote and get an early election. The sooner this shambles is over, the better.

Rather than this disgusting patronising idea that 'people are thick', might we countenance the idea that the broad mass of people do not pay daily attention to what blogs are saying, do not post on ConHome, do not obsess or talk about "ZaNuLieBore" and all the rest of it.

If one is a staunch Labour supporter there is nothing wrong in thinking one's side will still win. Much worse is this sort of complacent post, "Oh we only need a 1.6% swing for them to lose their majority, easy peasy. Has the ordinary punter not looked at these figures?" [Answer: No]

In fact, maybe those 18% are the shrewdest of us all. I'm sure the polls were even worse for us in 1991, yet look what happened then...

If the bear market ends quicker than we expect as in today's Telegraph then there may be more to fight over than you expect.

This is where we need to be careful, as results like these may result in people not bothering to vote.

The key now is to ensure turnout for us and that will be done by us relentlessly publicising our own plans for Government.

Labour are now their own worst enemy. We can capitalise by talking and behaving like the Government-in-waiting, which we are increasingly doing day after day.

The Tories will win the next election, because Nu Labour are a busted flush. As far as the Euros go, I would vote Conservative if the BNP were not standing.

However that's more to do with the fact I loathe and detest the scum of the left - a bunch of Brit loathing marxist traitors, rather than for anything the Conservatives stand for.

Most people realise there's not that much difference between the two. The Conservatives are as pro the EU as Nu Labour and are too shit scared to deal with immigration in a radical manner, let alone stop the Islamification of Great Britain.

The Lib dems will form the next goverment. We have stupendous momentom, and are very excrited. My prediction? Lib Dem majority of 80-100.

Agree with James Burdett. Even the Brown loyalists are looking defeat in the face. I think the only ones who aren't examining defeat are the hundred or so MPs in government.

"The Lib Dems will form the next government. We have stupendous momentum, and are very excited. My prediction? Lib Dem majority of 80-100. " = Gloy.


There is a better chance of my turning "Gay" than that ever happening!

On a more serious note there will always be at the very least 20% of core Labour Vote and about the same for the Conservatives. The Parties can take that to the Bank. It is the balance which decides the outcome, the uncommitted "Floating Voters".

First past the post is the answer here.
Yes you ca get into rows about how Proportional Representation works.
But I would say this: I liked Thatcher but th the cognitive dissonance between Parliamentary Majority and the will of the poeple undermined her and her legitimacy, and also now when in England the majority of votes cast were for Conservative rather than Labour, it has undermined Labour's majority.
What does this mean? What it means is that the instruments of local Govt work against Central Govt, what it means is that Central Govt is seen as an oppressor rather than a representative point of view of the community/electorate.
The internet and other enabling technologies mean that the transmission of "reality" is open to question much more robustly and quickly.
There are posters here I do no agree with, and I do not agree with democracy of the majority over liberty, but these questions have now taken on new dimensions and need new solutions.
Labour will not because centralisation is part of their core beliefs, even though that centralisation is based on the democracy/tyranny of the 50.0001% majority. What can the Tories offer as an alternative to liberal/constitutionalism vs tyrannical democracy?
I do not even attempt to answer the question here, but I hope that CCHQ can.
UKIP and BNP I see as labouring authoritarians, and there are many here I see as claiming to be liberal/constitutionalist Conservatives who are in fact "the limited tendency" of quick authoritarian answers and "Let's like Blair move on before reality catches up".
In this respect, is Cameron, a person I do not warm to, a professional answer?
I hope so. Like all of history, I will have to wait and see whether my judgement is correct.

I posted a couple of weeks ago,just before the budget,that the economy is not as bad as being portrayed by Labour,and the media.

Yesterday(friday),the Manufacturing PMI,showed the largest jump in new orders for companies since 1996,on the back of the weak pound.

You may think i am mad to say the economy is coming out of recession,but the GDP figures that caused such gloom & doom,are old data,that is what was happening in the Economy 3 months ago.

If you understand PMI.its the gage of economic activity for (services,manufacturing)largest parts,some 97% of GDP.

50 denotes growth,under 50 contraction.

last 5 months UK PMI services 80% of GDP.


next week we will get the data for April(1 month lag)

if you look at the trend,(swine flu permitting)the service sector could be growing(80% of UK economy)by June/July.

DC & George,can not let Labour take the credit,the recovery is nothing to do with Government spending,low interest rates(BOE responsible),cutting jobs(sad,but necessary in recession).

That is what is getting us out of the recession,the PRIVATE SECTOR,we can't be court off-guard in June/July,with a Brown bounce.

The country would be so glad to be coming out of recession,they might just give him enough votes for a hung Parliament.

After the PMI data was run through the computers,financial experts at the city's largest banks,came to this conclusion.

-4/1% annulized GDP decline in Q1,will be on the figure's above,-1% annulized GDP decline in Q2,or the quarter we are in now,although we won't get the stats & Figs,until months after Q2 has finished.

So not before the June elections.

Tim @23:41 - Good idea and I hope that DC read it too!
It is good news if the public believe we will win but I worry that polls such as this will ensure that Labour voters turn out rather than stay at home.

I hope Labour is defeated but with Conservatives only to have a small majority. I want Liberal Democrats to gain much more seats. Enough to ensure Conservatives need Lib Dems support on some issues.

I know i'm dreaming :D

I suspect most of that 25% have little knowledge about how are system works Jonathan. 25% want a Labour victory and I guess they hope it will happen. But if they had any knowledge they could hardly think it likely.
The narrative has changed, I watched Hilary Benn being savaged on Question Time even though Lansley was poor for us and on Any Questions Helena Kennedy attacked her own side so much Nick Herbert didn't really have to be good but he was.

I want a Labour victory, but I'm expecting a comfortable Tory majority, with the country coming out of the recession as they win.

Many people seem to agree that Labour will continue to 'fight dirty' and it might get dirtier.

What doesn't seem to occur to the Labour spinners, is that a large number of the public don't regard the 'dirty tricks' in the same way as the Labour spinners do. Obviously there is still a hardcore of 'I always vote Labour', I met a sheltered young man with that mantra the other day. I think they will only change if a Conservative government gets in with a sufficiently large majority (not too large, like Blair), to be able to change its approach to governing, and relating to the public! I am sure I will provoke tart (not sweet ones either) remarks from the lefties!!

"I want a Labour victory," writes R. Leftie. Just curious: you're clearly not stupid, so assuming this wish is serious, on what basis could you possibly want Labour to win again? I mean, given the consistently appalling record of Labour in terms of over taxing, over spending, endangering the economy to an alarming degree - quite apart from the scarily authoritarian nature of their collectivist nostrums...
I know the Tories are little better, but Labour? Again? It defies common sense.

Personally I am astonished that nearly one fifth of people still expect Labour to get a majority

Why are you surprised? Don't you realise what is going on and has gone on for years? When will you people learn?

The Labour broadcasting media control the minds of vast numbers of thoughtless people, because they do not hear any other opinions.

If Cameron is going to have any chance of success, he has to completely destroy Labour's control of broadcast news.

If he does not do so, the vampire thought dead will rise again, quickly.

Destruction of Labour's monopoly control of broadcast news is the key to the next Conservative Government.

I hope someone is listening.

"Personally I am astonished that nearly one fifth of people still expect Labour to get a majority"

I suspect it is those who live in safe Labour seats and in areas of the nation that have traditionally returned Labour MPs. I live in one of the seats that tends to change hands with the winning party (Swindon-both seats) Here the Majority I talk to expect a resounding Conservative victory. I will add just a note of caution, we have only taken a clear and sustained lead since the hapless and useless Brown has been in No10. There is still time for things to go pear shaped for us. So although all such polls are encouraging it would be a foolish person who didn't place a few saving bets just in case.

"I want a Labour victory," writes R. Leftie. Just curious: you're clearly not stupid, so assuming this wish is serious, on what basis could you possibly want Labour to win again?"

Of course I can only speculate on the personal circumstances of Resident leftie. However if he is employed by a local government or (heaven forbid) he is unemployed and loving it. Maybe he is looking after a sick relative or receiving tax credits and is worried about what we will do when we get into power. Labour are very good at spreading fear among their core supporters, as to the very nasty things we will do in power. I have heard people saying that we will get rid of Tax credits and all sick benefits. Dismantle the welfare state the National health service etc etc. Fighting such misinformation is made all the more difficult as our leadership is talking about austerity measures and as yet has not given any clear indication as to were the axe will fall. As a full time carer I too would like to know what our intentions are, although I believe we will do a better job than Labour has. It is true that some groups will inevitable loose out as a result of a conservative government whilst others will gain. In the run up to the General election we will have to fight hard against Labour misinformation as well as the deep seated distrust of politicians. In addition we have the problem of the loose cannons who attach themselves to the right of the Party and who do a lot of damage with their ill thought out suggestions.

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