Gordon Brown's G20 mini-bounce lasted 48 hours: Populus poll shows Tory lead increasing to 13%

Tim's prediction that Gordon Brown's G20 bounce would be short and small would appear to have been conclusively proven. After the YouGov poll at the weekend showed a narrowing in the Tory lead to 7%, there is a new Populus poll in tomorrow's Times, which shows Labour flatlining on 30% and a slight increase in the Conservative lead to 13%. The parties stand on the following figures:

Populus interviewed a random sample of 1,512 adults between Friday and Monday.

Comparisons are with last month's Populus poll for the Times, which gave the Conservatives a 12% lead.

But there is bad new for all politicians as the poll investigated the public's feelings about the current media storm about MPs' pay and expenses:

"More than two-thirds of voters think that all or a majority of MPs abuse their expenses and allowances. Some 27 per cent say all or nearly MPs and 42 per cent think that a majority of MPs, abuse the system."

There is full analysis from The Times's Peter Riddell here.

Comments

[Paul D]

I bet this poll doesn't get mentioned on the BBC website

[Sally Roberts]

Good news!

[Gary]

The bounce is fading sooner than expected.

[Richard]

The shortest Bounce in Political History.

Lock,Stock & 2 Smocking Barrels,when they lose the £1m card game,gamble everything and lose.

Gordy's feeling a bit unwell right now.

Thats one DVD that won't show up in his expenses claim.

[Winston Smith]

Nokia BUY

[Freddy]

@Joshuwahwah

Good poll, don't you think?

[Anders]

Although this is only one poll I bet it has swiped that silly smug forced grin of Gordon the Clown's face.

[Steve Foley]

Why do I envisage, Boxwallah, Jack Stone (all of them), and Resident Leftie looking a bit nauseous?

Still, it is to the good if the recent dip has shaken some people out of their complacency.

Until the last stroke of 10pm on Election Day we must not let up.

[Alex]

I stole this from PB, but it is worth repeating, that bounce was a ...

"bit like the bounce you’d get if you threw a Nokia on to the floor."

No, this poll won't get mentioned on the BBC, our state broadcaster ... it's not favourable to Labour.

[Malcolm Redfellow]

Forgive me.

I pointed out the YouGov poll was a quickie, and therefore unreliable.

You censored my comments.

I squeezed a personal plug for http://redfellow.wordpress.com, and therefore the summation of my comment, past your censorship. It was nearly as good for my daily "hits" as a mention on Guido.

This one, too, has the superficial look of a "quickie", and is probably as unreliable. but you give it opposite billing.

Are you just up-the-poll?

[ToryBlog.com - Neither Roon nor Broon]

Oh come on ConHome!

If the economy improves, Brown has a chance, if it doesn't he is shagged.

It is that simple.

[Freddy]

I've phoned the BBC to see whether they are going to give equal prominence to this poll!

I bet they won't mention it though!

[Peter Buss]

Seems to me then that Cameron's measured rational and calm response to the G20 is exactly the right approach to take with an electorate who are fairminded and middle of the road themselves and who for the main don't much appreciate rants and abuse when dealing with these great matters of State.

[William Blake's Ghost]

Clearly Richard Timney's Movies have more 'bounce' than the G20.

Poor Poor Gordo.....

[Malcolm Redfellow]

A correction: the Populus poll was NOT a quickie. It was, apparently, taken over three days, as a regular monthly poll. Which gives it a bit more credibility than the YouGov thing.

That said, I'm prepared to live with the Mike Smithson summation:

"I have to say that I am very surprised and was predicting to a couple of Labour supporters at lunchtime that the gap would have closed by about two points. For me the critical number in any poll is the Tory share. If that is 41% or more than it’s hard, even with the unfavourable electoral arithmetic, to see Cameron being denied a majority government."

Note, though, that the whole parallel universe of polls has been flat-lining for the last month, except that there is an undertow of growing acceptance of the government financial policy. I notice that the Times take on this poll is that it is specifically motivated by the public view of MPs' allowances. That is not entirely a partisan distrust, and it can be neutralised.

[Peter Buss]

To me it seems pretty clear that the Tories 40+% is solid.It has been at that level too long for it to be talked of as extremely flakey. That must be good news and a solid base to build on. Of course there's loads still to do and anything can happen but I for one am cheerful tonight!

Reading Riddell in the Times it does seem that the wretched saga of MP's expenses have dashed any slight Brown bounce. I also feel that any fair minded person can on the one hand give Bown some credit for his hard work on the G20 but on the other hand still say "there is no way I want him as my PM".To a fair minded person those 2 things are not incompatible and I think thats about where the voters are with the G20

[John Broughton]

I know I'm being repetative BUT 30% would still vote for the man/party that have ruined this country's finances not to mention created a police state and abolished (so far as they can) personal rponsibility and probity.

Is that 30% mad?

They must be.

[Freddy]

I think that the recent expenses problems, are a real talking point. I am sure that this has completely ended any Brown bounce.

[another richard]

'Is the 30% mad?'

Public sector non-jobs
Welfare layabouts
IT contractors and management consultants to the public sector
Snouts in trough quangocrats

Plus some 'my familys always been Labour, they're the party of the working class' bottom feeders.

[David Sergeant]

All this stuff about the G20 from the start was a Brown election push. (I nearly said stunt, but it's too big for that.) All this wizzing round the world, all the happy meetings in London (at god knows what expense), the Obamas in town, plus the queen and friendly publicity from the BBC and some media who should have known better.

The result, hardly any effect on Brown's popularity and, if anything, the Tories move ahead. After the biggest political effort probably since the war - nowt. Labour must realise that people simply don't want them and Brown and, almost irrespective of circumstances, Cameron is seen as the man to deal with the future.

There doesn't seem any other way of looking at it.

[Thomas Moore]

This Labour government is ending in the traditional manner - scorched earth economic policy. Disregard for deficits, collapse in Sterling, private sector crowded out by public sector.

I just hope the average Joe will see through the Brown's deceit. These problems are not global problems, they are UK-specific caused by Brown's obsession with increasing the role of the public sector.

[Chris Gillibrand]

And Brown had a large role in the regulatory context for banks which generated the crisis with perverse incentives written in for risk and pushed onto the EU during his UK presidency.

[BCG]

Freddy, good for you for phoning the BBC, but its a waste of time. They have are quiet open in their support for Labour while declaring to be 'impartial.'

And we are paying for it. It sickens me.

[MG]

The bounce does look small and temporary and our vote is looking firm. However I would sound some caution. Although feedback on the doors is pretty good, there are still significant numbers of floating voters that although they may not go back to Labour in droves are also not that much enthused by us. Cameron needs now to start upping the game. We are now nearly at the 12 month countdown to a GE.

[Paul J]

I have started the process of making a formal complaint about the BBC's highly selective coverage of opinion polls that I am more than prepared to take all the way to the BBC Trust.

They simply cannot be allowed to get away with only quoting the one or two polls that are favourable to Labour and ignoring those that are unfavourable.

As far as I am concerned if an opinion poll showisng a reduced Conservative lead is worthy of reporting then one immediately after that shows that bounce evaporating is just as worthy, if not more so.

This Government is extremely unpopular and it is ridiculous that the BBC doesn't acknowledge this.

If they persist in this blatant bias then I think as many Conservative activists and voters should make a complaint as well.

[Steve Foley]

"I know I'm being repetitive BUT 30% would still vote for the man/party that have ruined this country's finances not to mention created a police state and abolished (so far as they can) personal responsibility and probity.

Is that 30% mad? "
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

I also get fed up answering this! Labour, (as do all Political Parties), have a core support. They can in most elections take this to the bank, (if that is not a ruined expression these days). The Liberals have a smaller core. The three Parties then play for the floating voter and the undecided .

So like it or not there will always be that 30% or so who vote Labour, unless they suffer a landslide defeat as in 1983. It is made up of their client groups.

As I have also said, don't waste your time on them! Mark them as Committed Labour and concentrate on identifying Tory voters and working on the undecided and floaters.

[Sam R]

Mrs. B: - “You’ve gone and broken your phone again Gordon”
Gordo: - “It’s those d….d pollsters, what am I going to do?”
Mrs. B: - “What about sacking Jackie, every day there is a new revelation about her expenses”
Gordo: - “Yeah, but if I sack her I’m going to have to spend a week saying she has my full confidence, just like Bliar used do”
Mrs. B: - “Still, would be worth it to deflect some of the blame from your shoulders”
Gordo: - “Hang on though, if I sack her, I’m going to have to do the same to Hoon”
Mrs. B: - “If you sack Hoon, you cannot leave him next door to continue as chancellor”
Gordo: - “Not a bad idea, he’s totally useless – tried to say there is a recession”
Mrs. B: - “Anybody else who should go? Harman? Blears?”
Mrs. B: - “Please don’t say those very rude words about the “Times”

[Freddy]

@Paul J

I complain about their coverage of polls on a regular basis.

[michael mcgough]

Brown's bounce is like a dam buster's bomb-----it'll explode in June.

[Freddy]

Let me see, how many points did UKIP get? Was it 1% or 2%?

[Gloy Plopwell]

Still a significent vote for Lib Dems, so much better than 11%. Plenty of time to overtake Labour and Tories this year. A Lib dem majority of 120-160 in 2010 is inevitable, with stupendous momentom.

[Richard Carey]

@Steve Foley: "As I have also said, don't waste your time on them! Mark them as Committed Labour and concentrate on identifying Tory voters and working on the undecided and floaters."

I very much agree, Steve - bank and look after your pledges, don't waste your time on your opposition's core vote, work hard on probable Conservative supporters and Lab and Lib waiverers (relative effort depending on the local situation) both personally and with highly-targeted literature. None of it is rocket science, is it?

[Conand]

This bears out what we seemed to be finding when out canvassing here last week.

Conclusions: I'm a Cameroon but I think he could have been a wee bit bolder at PMQs last week. Brown gave him an open goal (his 2 minute rant), Cameron failed to score really. He was good on MPs expenses however.
I can't help feeling that at the next match (or before) he should indulge in some high oratory, Or alternatively: Give Brown a bit of his own medicine and go through the figures in a 'wooden and perfunctory way'. Or a bit of both, give him both barrels Davo! :)

[Annabel Herriott]

The problem with Brown, is that he genuinely has a split personality! Half of him is floundering around behind the scenes, scared stiff that if he relaxes his grip on anything at all, he will be in chaos. The other half really does think and believe that he is THE man. Come to save the world, tell Obama what to do. Add a tendency to lose his rag if even remotely thwarted - well, there he is.Poor old Nokia!
There was an interesting piece on Plato's blog. Pictures of Brown's body language with very accurate comments from a body language expert who seems to confirm my analysis.
Expect thing to get a whole lot worse over the next 12 months or so!

[Pollee]

Another meaningless poll for political anoraks to get excited about in a goldfish bowl.
Does anybody in the real world care?

[Conand]

@ Pollee @ 00:11

Yes, or the BBC wouldn't talk up the ones that appear to be good for Brown.

[Freddy]

@Pollee

Most of the political coverage in the newspapers and t.v centres round these polls - so they aren't meaningless!

[Kevin]

These polls are all very well but the fact remains that whichever of the main three parties you vote for you are going to get more of the same, and that will be decided in Brussels. 75% of laws made in the EU now and 100% once the Lisbon Treaty goes through. All three parties will allow the treaty through with no democratic intervention from the electorate of this country.

Those that think they are going to win the election will be rewarded with a bit of tinkering on the sidelines at huge cost. What is the point of paying all these corrupt MP's to line their pockets when they have very little real power. What I fail to understand is why all three parties are so hellbent on handing over what remaining power we have to the EU, there might be more fiddles in it for them but there is nothing for us.

[onthejob]

last 4 polls have shown a conservative lead of 13/7/12/13 the 4 polls before that were 10/11/12/10 it would appear the average conservative lead is now 12-13% by the end of april who know it maybe 14-15%.

it will be a very interesting election on june 4th

[Tom]

Such ignorance - the poll doesn't show anything of the sort. All opinion polls show a range of support with a margin of error. Thus a 43% rating for the Conservatives is really a rating of 40%-46%, which is very similar to the rating of 39%-45% indicated by a 42% poll rating. (1 in 10 polls will be more than 3% out) In addition, all the opinion pollsters use different methodolgy and different weightings. So if you have the same raw data for three opinion pollsters you get three different outcomes. For example, including only those certain to vote gets a different headline figure than if you include those who say they are fairly certain to vote. Plus there is the obvious point that rounding of 42.4 down and 42.6 up gives a 1% difference!

[Sally Roberts]

The thing to remember about all these polls are that they are effectively a snapshot of a particular day when the fieldwork was done. It is encouraging that we are maintaining ourselves in the 40s and that Labour are more or less flatlining but we have to keep up the hard work to ensure we have many more "snapshots" over the coming months and the trend will build into an unstopppable momentum.

[Rude Tory]

perhaps the bounce faded because the made up G20 trillion figure was quickly exposed, no thanks to the broadcasters and many of the newspapers who reported it as fact

[Steve Foley]

I am always a bit cautious about the bias in Polls. I am not suggesting that the proprietors of the well known ones would deliberately falsify the outcome but there is the bias, perhaps unconscious, of those doing the fieldwork. I have seen people with clipboards who I later found had been conducting an Opinion poll, in the main shopping street of Reading. I walked past slowly but not too obviously so, but was ignored and I wonder if they thought I "looked like a Tory" as I was wearing a collar and tie and suit at the time. Obviously if a different methodology is used, e.g. particular people selected at random from the Electoral Register and interviewed on their doorsteps then such bias would be eliminated but I do wonder if some pollsters "at the coalface" try to skew the results? I am also dubious as to the small number of people polled, usually about 1000 to 1200 or so given the size of the UK Electorate.

In the end the Poll which matters is the one that is run from 7am till 10pm on Polling Day.

[James]

Quick question.

People have been mentioning the lack of BBC coverage of this poll.

Did they actually cvover the mini Brown bounce Yougov poll? I didn't see any coverage?

Genuine question.

[SRN]

It was covered on their website James.

After 12 years of endless spin and media management by this government, the electorate's bullshit detectors are tuned into their garbage.
People know that the G20 was political stunt by panicking and desperate governments, despite the Labour propaganda pours out of the BBC.

[Freddy]

@James

Yes they did. It's on their website, Politics page - something about Brown too busy to think about an election.

@SRN

Couldn't have put it better myself. All the coverage of the G20 was load of old rubbish. The public now discount much of the spin and the BBC spin too!

[John Bell]

A 13% lead after the coverage Brown has had at the G20! What will it be after a Budget that lays bare the fiscal disaster we have, the spending limitations on the Chancellor and the tax/NI increases to come? And, on top of these, twelve months from now when unemployment is 3m and the Conervatives have hardened up and turned their policy reviews and documents into precise policies?

[James]

Thanks SRN and Freddie.
Jim

[Mary O'Boyle]

The 30% who would still vote for a labour government are obviosly quite mad. After 3 Labour governments , the wars, the wastes. the cheats the lies, anybody wanting another labour administration can only be on benefits or working for the administration and local government etc.,

[Conand]

@ Freddy @ 11:49

Yep the 'Brown 'won't talk election dates''
story is still on there as I write.(BBC News:Politics)

Is the (MORE RECENT) Populus Poll discussed in a story on there? Is it hell.

[Tim]

If you have a spare minute please vote in this on-line poll, and spread the word!
http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/standard/poll/poll-36517-details/ques-36871-id/Lite+poll%3A+nasty+party/poll.do

[Fredrik Ingemarsson]

Not looking good för Gordon the Crashmaster....

[Ross Warren]

This is an encouraging poll result. On the negative side our support seems to be hardening at 10% which is not really enough considering how awful Brown's Labour administration really is. Perhaps there has been a small Brown bounce which is showing up in this better than you would expect showing for Labour. The conclusion I think we should draw, is that the general election is far from won, and we are going to have to work hard to win this election outright.We can no longer assume that Labour will simply loose. We have to Win on our own merits, rather than simply being the beneficiaries of a protest vote.

[Patsy Sergeant]

The comment 'what about the 30%'? I think that group of people, are NOT interested in politics, have always voted Labour, and just don't want to know anything else (perhaps they are scared of having to make value judgements, that they think would be too difficult). However! I think that all the talk of greedy expenses-obssessed MP's, which must have even got into the Mirror, WILL, slowly have an effect. Because nobody likes somebody else getting something for nothing - when the 'something' is too large, and unrealistic, AND the recipient plainly thinks it is their 'due'!!