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Is this the best poll since Cameron became leader? Remember YouGov was recently the pollster giving the Conservative Party the smallest leads.

We shouldn't be complacent over this, it may just be a snap reaction. However, the 17 and 19 point leads may suggest otherwise. I would wait a while.

Good news though: 7% > 18% lead!

After yesterday revelation in the commons. Its hardly surprising that the public are showing two fingers to Gordon and Darling.
Its been a couple of really good weeks for the Conservatives. Even those Nutty Liberals are showing an increase in support. We will have to see how things pan out but at the moment I am encouraged

If only we could recall a government California-style

"Is this the best poll since Cameron became leader?"

We had 52% in a MORI poll at one point. I think Labour were down in the mid-20s as well.

Well! At last! Labour's chickens have come home to roost! I am furious about the state they've left us in!

They're stuck with the Dear Leader till the GE! The appalling state of the economy means that a pre election give away is impossible!

Gordon should do us all a favour and go to the country now! Then my party, led by DC, can provide this country with the prudent, decent, and farsighted government that this country so desperately needs.

Great news,we are on our way!

betweeen 2010-2015,the UK Government will spend 3500bn on public services or £3.5 trillion,there must be litterally £100bns of savings to be made,getting rid of the useless jobs that don't contribute to employment or growth.

I really think,the country is actualy looking for 'old Conservative' values,and that means smaller Government.

I really hope we are brave when we get power.

The mess in the public finances,is what it is,we tory's can turn it into a opportunity,we never would have got support without he credit crunch for big Government cuts,there is a real oportunity in power to draw a line in the sand,and educate the Bitish public of spending,once & for all.

Surely they can’t carry on like this?

The PBR, the G20 and the Budget. They were Gordon’s last three lives. They’re all gone.



No doubt much of the support is coming from the jobless, who can now expect to eventually disappear from the official count thanks to the alchemy of Labour's New Deal as more money is pumped into 'in training' programmes to make the jobless 'disappear' from the offical figures.

The Communist ICC website has written a brilliant expose of Labour's failed New Deal and how it sweeps the jobless under the carpet. If you have time please read this piece because its a first hand account, albeit from a Socialist perspective, of New Labour's dishonest New Deal.


"there must be literally £100bns of savings to be made,getting rid of the useless jobs that don't contribute to employment or growth."

Quite so lets end "the safe home in public service" culture that Labour is even now still flogging to death. Cut all but the most necessary managers in the NHS, be rid of the large psychology departments. Let Matron run the wards. Kill off the quangos and reduce the cafcass's of the nation to manageable sizes. Have a cull of middle management. Painful yes, justifiable yes.
The inefficiency of our public services has brought the nation to its knees.

@Ross Warren

I agree with you but let us do it carefully. We don't want any embarrassing mistakes that the BBC can seize on!

Where's Gezmond007 to tell us how wonderful the Budget was?

yet we may have up to 14 more months of him.

Nooo.. He's calling it for 4th June 2009.
If we say it enough times, it must become true. It MUST!

"Cutting £35bn from public spending is the equivalent of sacking every teacher, every nurse and every policeman in the country"

so said Gordon Brown before the last election. Now who's cutting Gordon?

Martin Coxall said "GAME OVER, MAN. GAME OVER."

I fear you may be right. This is a dreadful poll for Labour (obviously).

I've said on here before it didn't feel like 1995/96 in reverse.

Well, it now feels like 1995 in reverse.

I just hope the stimulus package does some good.......though it may come too late for Labour.

Hot damn thats good. Please say we get a 100+ majority - then Cameron can be bold!


And where is Joshuwahwah?

The Labour government is the most corrupt and incompetent in living memory and fully deserves to be dashed to pieces at the polls.

The government now appears to have nothing more to offer than ideological bloody-mindedness, a confused cocktail of spitepolitik, mixed with an utter contempt for the poorest members of our society.

Rich and poor should be united in their hatred for Labour and its self-serving ministers, people who have soiled the name of government and stained our nations reputation around the world.

The polls tend to indicate that a whole nation is queuing up to give Labour a brutally good kicking.

No complacency. 14 Months.

Hi matt, I actually think it was ok , not brilliant but ok . Only time will tell . It,a a big gamble for both brown and cameron . If things get better Gordon might just do it , if not dave boy is in !

Easy, Freddy. The Brown Broadcasting Corporation should be first to be cut, for the bias they have shown to ZaNu Lie Baah over the last 15 years.

Jonathan is right to say that we should not become complacent: think Kinnock 1992. We need to keep hammering on. We also need to be ready for an early election, because if GB thinks he will do better by going early before all his chickens come home to roost then he will. But after the McBride saga we need to think carefully about what better means to GB, Going when his preferred successors labour enemies are less likely to get elected than Ed Balls, maybe.

He might also go before the general populace realise that the markets have lost the appetite for Gordon's Gilts (or should that be Guilts).

We still have mountains to climb in some parts of the country. We need to get ready for action. But we have a Gord-given opportunity to hammer this lot with our leaflets over the next couple of weeks and reduce their morale even more by quoting the opinion polls.

However we will also need to be honest with people and tell them that we are in for a re-run of the period from 1945 with shortages of everything to 1960 when ordinary people started getting consumer durables like washing machines and cars.

Polls always dip after bad news, but people get used to the bad news and polls reflect that. The recent 40-30-22 polls feel about right to me. Cameron should have done much more on the other issues - Stafford Hospital anyone? Is that money well spent by Labour?

This poll looks good. So what! The polling is quite volatile at the moment in my opinion except to say that the Tories have had a long run of leads over Labour. I'll get more excited about the poll results closer to election day until then it is just poll porn.

McBroon will not give up. There is more than a little of Adolf about him - "If the people let me down they deserve to be destroyed." Actually, his best hope is a June 4 election - it will only get worse. He could keep Labout on (say) 250 seats and hope that Mr Cameron only gets in with a small majority which McBroon can hope will be eroded a la major. But it now looks as if he will drag it out. It even raises the question - will he have an election or will he say the people are too deluded to be allowed to vote in such a horrible climate.

Again, Mr Reeks is right - no complacency. (Please will someone tell me how to get bold into a posting?)

@Pay Less UK Tax

I agree with you about the BBC

I don't think it matters when the election comes - I think Labour is DOOMED!

Pay less UK tax

I wouldn't worry about dear old auntie,there is only one person they love more than Brown and that is Vince cable,and he is taliking about huge cuts in public spending,so the BEEB is in a pickle,they would love to bash DC,however they can't and won't knock Cable.


Only 27% of the population are brain dead.

The budget seems to have done more to increase the intelligence of the british public than over a decade of blairs 'education, education, education'.

If only the lib dems could do their bit to save the country and grab more labour voters.

One thing that has really surprised me is that David & George are missing a trick,they squirm when being asked about what they would do in he way of cuts.


2 months ago on Newsnight Cooper was talking about PFI,Clarke mentioned the tories do not know if PFI is in the official debt figures,i then realised the tories aren't being allowed he courtesy of seeing the books.

No reasonable person can expect them to come up with plans without seeing the financial figures & any hidden nasties like PFI.

Well I am afraid that this is not what is being said on the doorstep. I have just returned from a by election in Long Eaton in Nottingham. The electorate there were fed up to the back teeth with the Tories attacking the Government and having no alternative answer. Suffice to say, a place that has been Tory for the last ten years voted in Labour tonight despite a lot of Labour voters switching to the BNP. I ache and I have been at it since 6:30 this morning, but it was good to wipr the smug smile off the Tory candidates face who said to me earlier in the day 'I don't even know why you lot have turned up'

I think we have to be fair to our leaders. Many of us (myself included) have been critical of their tactics, but their tactics are paying off.

I know many will shout "Labour are losing, Tories aren't winning", but it's possible for us to 'lose' due to mistakes too... and so far we've avoided the bear traps. That's thanks to our tacticians.

For my part, I've been predicted these numbers (and more) for ages. So I'm not surprised. Labour will be destroyed in the next election unless some miracle occurs to change their fate. And not a minute too soon.

Strong poll lead so that's good, the end of Labour will be something to celebrate. Let us hope that the ascension of the Tory's will be something to celebrate too!

I've began a blog by the by, started with my comments on the budget, next week will probably be regarding our current political leadership.

"Well I am afraid that this is not what is being said on the doorstep"

Clearly the polls must be lying then. Are you Comical Ali?

Did you read the rest of my post Richard?

Good response on doors today.

Well, I'm in Copeland, which has never been Conservative, and the feeling I'm getting in the run-up to local elections is very different from yours, Joshuwahwah.

Indeed, it seems that a lot of what has been solid Labour for at least the past 12 years (and often, like Copeland/Whitehaven, much longer) are welcoming attacks on the Government, judging by other comments across various 'political' sites and blogs.

If I were a betting man, I'd wager your experience is, as they say, the exception that proves the rule.


Well the poll is a YouGov poll with double the usual sample. YouGov polls are the most accurate of all.

What happened in some council by election doesn't affect the national picture. It is quite clear that Labour are DOOMED!


Goodnight sir, too tired and happy to argue......bye.

"Did you read the rest of my post Richard?"

Yes, you seem to think that your personal observations in a local by-election say more than a national opinion poll with a good track record and scientific methodology.

No complacency.

To maintain and increase the lead and win a massive majority in the GE, we need to continally remind voters how Labour's absoulutely disastrous economic management has meant the recession is far worse than it need have been. How they have crippled and burdened this nation and every household for decades by running up this disastrous and criminal debt; after all the unsustainable spending which we couldn't afford before the downturn, with no substantial improvements in services to show for it. And now public services are likely to be cut (by Labour). All that spending and all that additional tax burden since 1997 for nothing.

And we mustn't forget to target Lib-Dem-held seats, where the message must be only we can form an alternative Government, and voting LibDem could only help keep Lab in.

"Is this the best poll since Cameron became leader?"

No, he had 22% leads last year in the wake of the 10% tax fiasco. And in last May's local elections the lead was 19% over the LibDems (who beat Labour into 3rd).

But this is the biggest lead since the banking crisis, and shows that Brown's panic measures aren't cutting it.

Brown will hang on he has no guts and worse no HONOUR He is like Hitler in 1945 locked in his bunker moving imaginary Legions of voters around on outdated maps and raving at the Loony generals telling him what he wants to hear Yes they will hogeoff Buckleyld on to feather their nests until the last second
Geoff Sunbear

By election in Hy Wycome:

Liberal Democrat 733
Conservative 408
Labour 214

Lib Dem gain from Labour

Even if it's a gain by the Lib Dems, it's always enjoyable to see Labour pushed from 1st to 3rd.

We must not be overconfident. My concern is that a lot of disillusioned Labour supporters will switch to the LibDems rather than vote for their traditional 'enemy' - the Conservatives. This could result in a minority Labour Government clinging onto power with LibDem support

We can get through this depression (or 'Black Dog if you prefer). The structure of the economy may well be more rational after it, but this absurd budget won't have anything to do with that.
This country has reached such low points before. It's people, aided by those chosen to sit in Parliament have found a way out, and have gone on to reach new heights of freedom and prosperity.
Politicians of all parties and none have gone into that crucible of debate and founded a new basis for resolve, enterprise and brotherhood.
I fear that while Labour has the majority this cannot happen. They are happy to tread water and play games. They produced no budget of any meaningful kind. They shut down debate. They pursue those they hate using smears and Police Officers.
Some individuals in our party may have acted badly, but Labour under Brown has acted appallingly as a government.
We must do everything we can to help the British people get rid of this government.

Part of me suspects Brown will invoke the Civil Contingencies Act, declare an emergency and cancel elections indefinitely. I doubt there is anything he is incapable of.

Yeah, but Osborne polls as badly as Darling and well below Vince Cable.

Osborne is a huge liability. He needs to be replaced as Shadow Chancellor.

Nooo.. He's calling it for 4th June 2009.
If we say it enough times, it must become true. It MUST!

I felt sure it would be the same day as the County Council and European Elections, however it would appear that there had been a decision that it wasn't going to be.

First of all Harriet Harman said that Labour activists should see the European Elections as a trial run for the General Election, then there was talk of a report after the last of British troops in Iraq pulled out, and Gordon Brown saying that a General Election would be a distraction and that he wasn't going to speculate on when one would be, but would get on with taking action on the recession.

It now seems almost certain that Gordon Brown has decided that it will be combined with the 2010 Local Elections on 7 May 2010.

Yes, please do not get complacent. This still shows Labour losing more than Corservatives winning.

That said, Osbourne responses this time have been fine, even pursuasive. He's even not crowing and is saying things like "IF we form the next government ...". Arrogance never plays well with the public. Keep at it George. Cameron loyalty may yet prove popular if Redwood and Clarke keep making solid, supportive contributions with deference to Osbourne.

I still can't believe that in a democracy nobody but the government gets to see the numbers. This is public information and should be maintained and guarded by public servants. The clue should be in the title: "Public" servants not "Government" servants. I trust this is one iniquity the Conservatives will fix in a future, transparent government. This is something they should pledge about, Now. It would win votes and give them gravitas though not being afraid of accountability. It cuts across perceptions and prejudices against Old Tories - Caring, Sharing Conservatives.

"joshuw.."'s comment re by-election

While I wd like to see the exact figures, if the Labour candidate were indeed told by the Tories "I don't know why you lot turned up" then that attitude in itself is sufficient explanation for the defeat. We must not take anything for granted - perhaps Labour have picked up some of the dirty tricks of the LibDems for use in by-elections!

However - even our Labour friend says "Labour voters switched to BNP." The rise of BNP because the concerns of their voters have been ignored by Labour should be a major cause of shame to Labour.

Sorry - of course McBroon does not know the meaning of the word.

Come on, surely the penny must have dropped about Osborne.

Even now, after all this mess, Osborne is not rated by the public higher than Darling, and this is YouGov, your favourite pollster.

If the poll lead you are celebrating is meaningful, then the public's rejection of Osborne is equally meaningful!

I kno wI have been banging the drum about being a RON not a ROON, but it seems the public agrees with me.

I think that this poll will reflect the way of things from hereon, but you can never be too sure.

I am never surprised by the public's willingness to forget at the first sign of an upturn.

"I have just returned from a by election in Long Eaton in Nottingham."

Glad you're feeling happy, joshuwahah and I don't want to prick your bubble, but I have to tell you that I know Long Eaton and, despite the fact the Conservatives until last night held this Council seat there, it is certainly not what one would describe as a Tory Heartland! In fact with many white working class voters I see it as an area which I should think the BNP are targeting to take votes off Labour (as indeed you say they did yesterday).
You know as well as I do that Council By Elections have their own peculiarities and the result may have been due to a number of factors; for example too few helpers, apathy, local issues or even the personalities of the candidates themselves.
As far as this latest poll is concerned, I am pleased but not complacent. We need to carry on working solidly.

I will be dead before the debt is brought down to the maximum recommended.

The key fact about this latest poll is that it is a You Gov poll - their sample size is about 2,000 instead of the standard 1,000. This makes it more accurate. I seem to remember that it was a You Gov poll that accurately called the 2005 election.

Don't fall into the trap and get excited about the loss of a single local government by election. In local government we're the DEFENDING party now - because we've got so many seats and councils.

We all know that some Conservative councils are excellent - like the one we've got here in Daventry - others aren't nearly as good. The public is well aware of this and votes accordingly. In local government the picture isn't nearly as clear as it is in national politics!

" their sample size is about 2,000 instead of the standard 1,000. This makes it more accurate"

Not really. I believe the number polled has to increase from 1k to 10k to gain any real reduction in the margin of error.

I'm sure Mr Archer, our resident statistician can confirm.

@Tory Blog

OK! but they are the most accurate newspaper opinion poll!

The YouGov poll is good news but I share the views of the people who stress that the Conservatives shouldn't get complacent.

There has been a lot of "noise" about the 50% tax rise but people seem to have overlooked the generous increase in tax credits. Those are due to come in next April. That points to a general election next May or June.

And I know that on a previous post I pleaded that we shouldn't get hung up on the 50% tax rise. However, how about considering replacing it with a freeze on public sector pay over, say, £100k a year? We could perhaps even go further and talk about cuts in public sector pay over that amount. And remember, that these days a good many bankers could be considered to be "public sector" so such a scheme might just go down well with the electorate.

It's just a thought!

Sorry Freddy, being an anal pedant there!

YouGov are accurate. It is an excellent poll for the Tories.

*However* a team looking to win should alwys be looking at the bad news, to improve on that, and that bad news is the fact the the public have no faith in Osborne.

It must be true. YouGov have told us. This cannot be ignored. The public want an experienced, safe pair of hands in the Treasury.

That is not Osborne.

It is a quite marvellous result and, if the June elections are bad for Labour and Brown continues to hang on, he will take the Party into electoral oblivion for a very long time.

Labour supporters must realise that the longer Brown stays as their "leader", the longer the period of oblivion will be.

For the good of the country, Brown should call an election this year - and for the sake of his own party too.

As QT tours the country, it becomes increasingly clear that Labour has lost the support of the majority and the response to the virtuoso performance from David Starkey last night when he inveighed against all politicians only served to prove this point.

We should now go onto a war footing: finalise the manifesto, ensure that all the candidates and activists are ready and also select our lst Xl for government.

The campaign I am sure will succeed if fought on two main planks: the economy, naturally, and the restoration of civil liberties. Last night I watched the DVD 'Taking Liberties' and was absolutely horrified to see just what a police state we have become under Blair and Brown. Anyone who thinks that David Davis was on an ego trip when he resigned and fought his seat on the platform of civil liberties should watch this DVD.

Brown clearly need to employ some new image makers if he is to stand any chance of winning this competition.

If you really want to laugh, watch this:


@Tory Blog

Personally I think Osborne is good - poll rating could be down to BBC's worship of Man of the People Vince. Cameron's view on this might be very different to yours - being a participant gives you a very different viewpoint sometimes. I'll trust DC's judgement!!

On a practical note, shifting Osborne might cause trouble in the Tory ranks.

This one had me crying as well

I keep repeating my mantra. Labour will Come3rd not Go4th!

I can't believe Gordon Brown has maintained Labour in second place. It cannot be long before they sink to third can it?


What a marvellous thought! Labour is ELECTORALLY DOOMED.

Actual Election Results are very different from Opinion Polls. Lib Dems lead ! Gained three seats yesterday, Tory vote collapsed in all but one contest. Message to Cameron "Don't measure 10 Downing Street Curtains yet.

Did anyone else notice that the current lead story on the BBC website notes that Labour has a "poll boost" referring to a ComRes study showing Brown/Darling as the most trusted team to deal with the economy, and guess what.

No mention of this poll whatsoever!
Anyone surprised????

@R Anon

You sound just like a Lib Dem!

Council by elections don't tell you anything!

This is fabulous news!!! Lib Dems up 2% to 18. We had to suffer 11% in some polls in 2007.

The Lib dems have a really popular set of policys. On the European constitushion, we also should promise to force the Irish to vote on it again.
They damaged the social cohesion of the European project, and didn't understand the text or the wider benefits.
This would win the Lib dems a lot of support here.

Lib Dems are well on track to over-take both Labour and Tories in 2009, and win the General election with suspendors momentum.

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